Brexit discussion thread IV

Imreoir2

When it comes to the Tories and the DUP, all I can say is let them fight.

The harder they hit each other the better if you ask me.

Junkyard Tom

briany wrote: »

you could just as easily suppose there is an element in Nationalism who want a border in the sea

In fairness the Irish Sea is already a natural border that doesn't divide actual towns, families, and communities.

trellheim

Indeed. What is that if not BRINO ?

road_high

Can feel the DUP fire and froth already;
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1025345/Brexit-news-Theresa-May-UK-EU-Ireland-border-concession-latest

The English in my experience are a practical people (Brexit aside) and likely can’t fathom the Unionist opposition to logical sea checks. And they sure as hell aren't going to fund billions in pointless border bureaucracy for a pointless backwater like NI.
They don’t make a distinction between unionist or nationalist everyone is Irish.
The cost will win out in the end and portal checks are infinitely cheaper to administer

BonnieSituation

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

In fairness the Irish Sea is already a natural border that doesn't divide actual towns, families, and communities.

Well it seems to divide the Great British community in the north from the Great British island they're fond of pretending to be from.

Mr.Nice Guy

I don't see the DUP backing down.

LBC radio presenter Shelagh Fogarty revealed she was told by one DUP MP in regards to a hard border, "build it as high as you like." The clip is here:

https://twitter.com/joemccaul/status/1046837527502569473

BonnieSituation

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I don't see the DUP backing down.

LBC radio presenter Shelagh Fogarty revealed she was told by one DUP MP in regards to a hard border, "build it as high as you like." The clip is here:

https://twitter.com/joemccaul/status/1046837527502569473

Wouldn't take a genius to make an educated guess that that was likely to be Gregory "Curry my Yogurt" Campbell.

Peregrinus

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

It's not a move at all.

The problem with the backstop is the UK would like to stay in the CU rent free.
There is also the problem that the UK might chance changing the rules a little bit.

In principle, the UK staying in the CU "rent-free", as you put it, is not a problem. Turkey is in the Customs Union (oh, all right, a customs union with the EU) but not in the single market, so this is a state of affairs that the EU can contemplate.

As for "changing the rules", part of the definition of being "in the customs union" is that you accept and apply the EU's external customs tariff. Change that, and you're not in the customs union any more.

Being in the Customs Union does not require you to accept or apply EU product regulations (which is why the UK being in the Customs Union would not be enough, on its own, to avoid a hard border). The proposal here is that NI will accept and apply EU product regulations, and this would be ensured by appropriate checks on products moving from GB to NI. GB would be free to depart from EU produce regulations.

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Just not worth the hassle, and remember the Swiss would freak out if their deals get delayed even further. The UK can't get a better deal than them because of Most Favoured Nation rules.

Sure they can. The MFN rules deal with how you treat countries with which you don't have a special deal; you have to treat them as well as you treat all the other countries with whom you don't have a special deal. But the EU already has a variety of deals with a variety of countries; some are much better than others; and none of this breaches the MFN rules. The EU can certgainly make a deal with the UK which is more favourable in this or that respect than any of the deals that it currently has with other third countries.

Peregrinus

Infini wrote: »

We were honestly already here in December when Agony Arlene kicked up a stink about it. That is unless May as put a gun to the DUP and told em accept or be left at the mercg of Corbyn.

The thing is, the DUP are acutely aware that they are highly likely to be left at the mercy of Corbyn in the medium term anyway. Constitutionally, there has to be an election within 3 years or so; politically, earlier is highly possible. And the Tories of today don't look like a party that can be confident of winning a fourth term. Winter is coming.

So, the question is, how much principle is the DUP prepared to sacrifice in order to Put Off The Evil Day? And, realistically the answer should be "not very much at all". So I'm not sure that May actually has that much leverage over the DUP.

The problem with the rumoured "we'll stay in the Customs Union until there is agrement on magic technology" deal is this; despite their hypocrtical pretence, Brexiters know perfectly well that, on the most optimistic view, it will be many years before there practical magic technology for keeping the border open (if there ever is). Which means that, come the next election, the UK will still be in the Customs Union. And if, as expected, Labour forms the next government, well, their policy is for the UK to remain permanently in the Customs Union, and it's entirely forseeable that they would enter into an agreement with the EU to this effect, and construct a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU built on this. Ultra-Brexiters would despise this as Brexit-in-name-only, but would be acutely aware that there is no guarantee (to put it no higher) that they could ever get it overturned by a future Parliament or in a future referendum.

So expect the ultra-Brexiteers to be willing to die on the barricades resisting this one.

lawred2

road_high wrote: »

Can feel the DUP fire and froth already;
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1025345/Brexit-news-Theresa-May-UK-EU-Ireland-border-concession-latest

The English in my experience are a practical people (Brexit aside) and likely can’t fathom the Unionist opposition to logical sea checks. And they sure as hell aren't going to fund billions in pointless border bureaucracy for a pointless backwater like NI.
They don’t make a distinction between unionist or nationalist everyone is Irish.
The cost will win out in the end and portal checks are infinitely cheaper to administer

So is it customs Union for great Britain, single market for NI?

listermint

Whilst we are all busy chatting about borders and relaxing some redlines , and the UK government bringing out old ideas they had last year that they struggled with then . And they sow an early narrative of EU blame.

We should not keep our eye off the ball.

The UK government want out. They want no deal theyve wanted this for the last year. Even the middle of the road Tories have been pulled in by the allure of this.

Here is a thread worth reading and accurately explains why we are where we are and whats going on right now and why.


https://twitter.com/J_amesp/status/1046828583484821504?s=20


The EU may well start putting the British government in the category of hostile power because that is exactly what they are. Negotiations are not going to work here. The EU need to start thinking protection defence and attack.

Early start would be to stop assisting the Tories in their discussions narrative and fight them with facts via media campaigns . Expose the truth


Read the thread above ....

Peregrinus

listermint wrote: »

Whilst we are all busy chatting about borders and relaxing some redlines , and the UK government bringing out old ideas they had last year that they struggled with then . And they sow an early narrative of EU blame.

We should not keep out eye off the ball.

The UK government want out. They want no deal theyve wanted this for the last year. Even the middle of the road Tories have been pulled in by the allure of this.

Here is a thread worth reading and accurately explains why we are where we are and whats going on right now and why.. . .

It "accurately explains" this with a conspiracy theory. It could be right, but as a general rule I tend to discount conspiracy theories.

Never explain with a conspiracy what can be satisfactorily accounted for by idiocy and incompetence. (Particularly where Brexiters are concerned.)

lawred2

Peregrinus wrote: »

It "accurately explains" this with a conspiracy theory. It could be right, but as a general rule I tend to discount conspiracy theories.

Never explain with a conspiracy what can be satisfactorily accounted for by idiocy and incompetence. (Particularly where Brexiters are concerned.)

Well whether it's crass idiocy and incompetence or a grand conspiratorial plan, the end result might be the very same. Instability, discontent and the destabilisation of peace across Western Europe

EdgeCase

I'm not convinced by that conspiracy theory view of it. I don't think the British government has a clue what it's doing, other than continuously attempting to consolidate Tory power and preventing a general election that would very likely lead to Corbyn as PM.

They are engaging in bad faith, as the negotiators have no real mandate to agree anything. They say one thing and it's undermined 10 minuits later.

May can't compromise on Northern Ireland as the DUP are absolutely dogmatic about that line they won't cross it and they'll collapse the UK government first. This notion that they'll be pragmatic is crazy. When have they ever been pragmatic?!

If she thinks she can nudge hard-line Northern Irish unionists into a position of compromise, she's really kidding herself and has no idea what she's dealing with. They aren't the Lib Dems.

They've also never really been huge fans of the GFA and now look like they will be willing to alter or scrap it : https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/1002/999351-good-friday-agreement/

What could possibly go wrong there?!?

I think you'll just see a chaotic Brexit and then an economic meltdown in the UK with big regional and possibly even wider consequences.
To what extent that impacts the Irish economy is a big question.
I'm already preparing contingency plans to emigrate though as I think there's going to be a crisis on the scale of 2008.

I just want to make sure I'm not caught up in another economic mess in 2019.

I'm definitely not really feeling very comfortable about setting down roots in these islands anymore as I just have no idea what's around the corner.

Maybe it will all be fine or maybe it will be 2008 all over again.

I'm keeping my options open and I'm probably going to start looking into jobs on the continent. I just have a really bad feeling about next year.

Rhineshark

Honestly, it fits the facts.

And I generally agree about conspiracy theories but then again, look at what they've been saying aloud!

We knew they'd try to force it down to the border - they have.

We keep seeing the same impossible, stupid, unworkable plans and then hearing lies about how the EU are not putting forward plans.

We keep seeing the same rhetoric of enmity.

We know they are not and never have been negotiating in good faith.

And this is a crowd awful enough to force a border situation on another country that threatens it's economy and peace and then try to *force them to put up the border as well as live with it*.

We know the DUP want a border. We know the ERG want a hard and probably crash-out Brexit. We know that some of the high up advisors are a freaking disaster capitalism shower. We know that most of the UK don't particularly give a flying.

Nothing in their behaviour suggests any real urge to try make this work. Nobody would have accepted the foolishness the UK keep calling plans. They know that.

Sure, circumstantial. But it does not add up to mere incompetance at this point tbh. There is only so much leeway for actual stupidity before it becomes malicious stupidity (long passed). It does look to me like pure maliciousness by now.

Personally I think we have to accept that through no fault of our own and through no enmity of the actual people in the UK that our close neighbour is not, currently, a friendly allied country.

For Forks Sake

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Wouldn't take a genius to make an educated guess that that was likely to be Gregory "Curry my Yogurt" Campbell.

I'm not sure, I thought there was a bang of Sammy Wilson off that statement.

Enzokk

I don't know whether to be amused or scared by that theory. If I were to think that there is some master Brexit plan from the Conservatives that are actively planning for a no-deal Brexit I would be extremely concerned and would have to re-think a lot of my opinions of politicians today. That would be some plan from the UK to exploit the EU to get what the Conservatives wanted all along.

But, that would also assume thinking that has to this point seemed past the current crop of politicians. Does anyone think David Davis who was laughed at when he was in the SAS and who is well known for being lazy was in on this or just a pawn that happened to fit to the type they needed? What about the absolute incompetence that the Conservatives have shown in regards to Windrush, any department that Chris Grayling has been in charge of and going from one of the best performing economies in the G8 to the worst? Was this all part of the plan?

Then we have Theresa May, somehow this theory is in the perfect position where she cannot actually deliver a Brexit. She needs the ERG, but their plans are not what Businesses want in the UK. So if she goes with the ERG model she will have most of the Businesses against her. If she goes against anything other than the ERG plan then they will vote her down. Then she called an election and won just enough seats where she needs to rely on the headcases that are the DUP. They want a border in Ireland, even when most of the people in NI voted against this. So she seems to be taking a lot of gambles and her picks of her cabinet doesn't shout master planner at all.

She also cannot get Labour on board to try and get past the ERG and the DUP because their plans post Brexit is very much different to what seems to be planned and they are hoping for a General Election to kick her out of No.10. If you think they will be low tax and low regulations and low workers rights then you haven't been paying attention to who is in charge at Labour either and while they may be happy with Brexit they have been consistent at least in having a close relationship with the EU.

I am going by just a conspiracy theory on that, it takes way too much planning and way too much luck to be where we are now.

On the DUP and the supposed new arrangements for the border, it does seem to me that the negotiators from the UK knows the score on what they need to deliver. I don't think they are tied to personal ideology like some politicians and they are aware on what is possible and how it must happen. This is how we arrived at the December agreement, just because there was no other options on the table. The fly in the ointment is the DUP. They can come to an agreement on anything on the Irish border the DUP will most likely oppose it as they seem intent on employing a scorched earth policy. The only problem is that unlike what the British did in South Africa during the Boer War, they will not be burning the crops and houses of the enemies but their own.

Also, I find it absolutely fascinating that the only major party to campaign against the GFA and one that has not embraced it at all is now trying to tell people that it is not set in stone. They can actually, to borrow a phrase from Boris Johnson, go whistle. This is the second time that I can recall that the DUP is against the wishes of the people of NI. Firstly it was the GFA, where 71% of people in NI voted in favour of adopting it. Then Brexit where their role in the illegal activities of the Leave campaign is still not known. They are also at odds with probably the majority of people in NI on social issues, yet for some mind blowing reason they are in charge and pulling the strings for almost the whole of the UK.

So looking back at the conspiracy theory, when you have the caliber of politicians out there in the world at the moment who has shown the ineptitude of office in all sorts of countries, I doubt whether you would find many that would be smart enough to be able to follow through on a plan like this.

EdgeCase

The issue is narrow political agendas set against the national interests of the UK. It's probably the worst government the UK has ever had. I see no leadership, no patriotism, just self serving, power hungry people who are willing to manipulate any narrative to retain power.

It's a sad indictment of the state of British politics and I think it will take a deep economic meltdown before they cop on and wake up again. The British public is so far down this rabbit hole that I really think they may be lost forever.

This is what happens when a country spirals into a politics driven by toxicity. There's no substance behind it just keep stirring the pot to maintain power.

The whole thing will come crashing down as you can only mismanage a country for so long.

They will snap out of it eventually but it will be a painful reality check.

listermint

Peregrinus wrote: »

It "accurately explains" this with a conspiracy theory. It could be right, but as a general rule I tend to discount conspiracy theories.

Never explain with a conspiracy what can be satisfactorily accounted for by idiocy and incompetence. (Particularly where Brexiters are concerned.)

I think they are relying on EU despondency and that we all think there is heavy infighting and stupidity. When the reality is there is a core of hardened no dealers and they have the middle ground on board.

We think they are acting stupid and perhaps at the start there was a large element of that. But over 27 months in, that is simply not a plausible explanation.


The EU need to wise up and wise up quickly. Don't put these folks in the bucket of incompetency any longer, there is maliciousness involved

Leroy42

It really doesn't take much planning. The ERG are effectively, and pretty openly doing much of this already.

It has been mooted a number of times that the UK could become Singapore of Europe, that requires significant tax cuts and direct hostile competition to the EU. May has clearly been working from Day 1 with the US, and the US see this as a great opportunity to not only weaken the EU (a strong EU is not in their interests) but to sow more disaffection within the EU so as to have it more concerned with internal battles than looking externally. This removes the EU from being the strong global power it aims to be, at least in the short term.

The mere fact that we have the government openly talking about a crash out, means that it is very much part of the plan. TM has used every trick in the book so far to get into and stay in power, including going against the spirit of the GFA to get the DUP on her side.

They have also openly talked about getting rid of the GFA and not living up to the December Agreement. All that points to a government that see this as an opportunity to push through many of the issues they want on the back of the "failed brexit due to the EU".

Shortly you will start to see emergency measures being floated, which of course TM and the government don't want to take but are being left with no choice. Massive tax breaks for corporations and the rich, and the promise that they will attract investment. Massive cuts in social spending, on the basis on having to tighten their belts (Hammond broke the ice on that yesterday but stating that austerity would continue, though this has of course been lost in the media frenzy over Tory infighting).

I d think that the UK has played the game wonderfully. They never really had any intention of agreeing a deal, simply look at the picture of Davies the first day! TM needed a fight with the EU to generate the 'us vs them' narrative so that people would side with her rather than look logically at what is happening.

I do think that EU has played right into their hands. They have effectively facilitated (although they had little choice) this plan by playing along in the role of trying to negotiate and thus give the UK the time to waste so that the end game could be done in a rush. In a rush of course is only the optics, I think that much of it has already been planned for and ready to go, but it was neccesary to make it look like the decision were taken due to the last minute panic.

EdgeCase

Don't underestimate the fact that they also consider the GFA to be a legacy of New Labour and Blair. There are plenty of Tories who seem to think that NI could be resolved by good old-fashioned extreme security and can't understand why it could possibly need any kind of special status.

You're talking about a party that has an element of very right leaning British nationalism and they only have a vague familiarity with NI and see history through distinctly imperial pink tinted glasses.

They're looking for enemies and they're trying to impose their own view of what national identity is.

Hurrache

Verhofstadt not keen on any extension of article 50.

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1047039193006952451

FreudianSlippers

We should be very much against any proposal to extend Article 50 unless it is to allow for a second referendum on Brexit.

Leroy42

Jebus, imagine what Hunt would say if the EU extended Art 50. I can imagine the calls for a protest to free the UK 1.

listermint

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

We should be very much against any proposal to extend Article 50 unless it is to allow for a second referendum on Brexit.

100% Because it would have nothing to do with negotiations, It would just be about giving brexiters more time to implement their exit plan. They dont want to rescue any deal whatsoever. Its fiefdom O Clock in westminister.

trellheim

An a50 extension ? More conference messing by someone not in power . IMHO best lesson for May is experiences of Cameron re immigration reform and John Major ref ERM... I.e. there are other interests. face aside I can’t see a way forward here

Zubeneschamali

lawred2 wrote: »

Well whether it's crass idiocy and incompetence or a grand conspiratorial plan, the end result might be the very same. Instability, discontent and the destabilisation of peace across Western Europe

The conspiracy theory above, that the UK are going hard brexit, always were, and are hoping to destabilise Europe esp. France and take Ireland out with them is, I suppose, technically possible.

But if that is the plan, it is even stupider than the cover plan of getting a deal, since the EU will shrug off these destabilising efforts while the UK will be utterly trashed economically.

We would also have read the whole thing in the papers already, since the politicians are incompetents and the civil service, responsible for the real planning, are not.

Professor Moriarty

I love this quote from the Guardian today:

Johnson’s recent calls for a bridge to be built between the island of Ireland and Great Britain were described as “insane” by Verhofstadt, who said the former cabinet minister was more comfortable in “burning bridges”.

listermint

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The conspiracy theory above, that the UK are going hard brexit, always were, and are hoping to destabilise Europe esp. France and take Ireland out with them is, I suppose, technically possible.

But if that is the plan, it is even stupider than the cover plan of getting a deal, since the EU will shrug off these destabilising efforts while the UK will be utterly trashed economically.

We would also have read the whole thing in the papers already, since the politicians are incompetents and the civil service, responsible for the real planning, are not.

That would not be the case if the EU were not prepared for it. We could not feasibly have this former partner with a land based border actively engaged in subterfuge of our standards, taxes, regulations.

That is what they are aiming for and have actually threatened on purpose or accidentally on various occasions.

If the EU are not prepared fully for this then they can and would be taken by surprise. Pretending that they are no threat would be idiocy.

Zubeneschamali

listermint wrote: »

That would not be the case if the EU were not prepared for it.

We all know the EU is far, far better prepared even now for hard Brexit than the UK, who have drawn a few plans on beermats.

All this noise at the conference means less than nothing - it is not aimed at the EU or even the British public, just the party faithful.

After the conference season, the EU and UK will settle on some date as the last minute. Then they will miss that date and agree a new last, last minute. Then they will talk for 36 hours straight and emerge disheveled and blinking right at the deadline.

They will agree to a Canada style FTA with a carve-out for NI. The media language will suddenly change (especially the BBC). It'll be well played everyone, those were the toughest negotiations in the history of negotiating, we got the absolutely best deal out of the EU possible given our red lines, Rule Britannia, declare victory and head home.

It isn't a conspiracy, it's a performance, a clown show.