Brexit discussion thread IV

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

We all know the EU is far, far better prepared even now for hard Brexit than the UK, who have drawn a few plans on beermats.

Is it? What preparations have Ireland done? Have we put in new lanes at the ports for UK and Non UK bound? What have we done in terms of additional workers and the plans for policing the border?

Sky News last week came out with documents from France saying that they were not close to being ready. Recently we had the Airports claiming that they weren't ready.

Evd-Burner

Leroy42 wrote: »

Is it? What preparations have Ireland done? Have we put in new lanes at the ports for UK and Non UK bound? What have we done in terms of additional workers and the plans for policing the border?

Sky News last week came out with documents from France saying that they were not close to being ready. Recently we had the Airports claiming that they weren't ready.

A cousin of mine who works in the civil service has been working on a project as a result of Brexit, he told me they have been doing a huge amount of work behind the scenes for various high impact issues but have all been strictly warned about giving any details out whatsoever so as to not undermine any ongoing negotiations. I suspect that us along with a lot of other European countries have been doing the same, probably an EU advisement.

swampgas

This Q&A session is over an hour long, but covers a lot of ground, although it does meander about at times. I hadn't realised, for example, that VAT will be a major headache for small businesses exporting from the UK to the EU if there is a hard Brexit.

At 47 minutes in there is a discussion about what happens if "everything stops" on Brexit day. And at 50 minutes in the point is made that the UK doesn't just lose easy access to the EU-27, the EU has agreements with another 60 countries around the world which the UK will lose at the same time.

Sobering stuff. It also gives you a feel for the sense of desperation there is among the remainers who are aware of what is bearing down on them.

*edit* I disagree though that the UK can just withdraw Article 50. Although the suggestion is made that the price would be the end of the rebate.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmUJzXYiku8

Leroy42

TM is announcing today the end of FoM for ever, lauding it as almost the landing on the moon or something similar.

Of course, in terms of the impact on UK citizens and travel in the EU, its the usual reply that it will all be fine as the will get something in the negotiations and things like Erasmus will continue because the UK likes that.

Sam Russell

I think there are lots of signs of preparedness in the UK.

BMW are shutting down their MINI production line. Toyota have said there are reviewing the investment plans. Land-Rover-Jaguar have moved production of the Discovery to Eastern Europe, and have outlined the job losses in the motor assembly trade.

That is just a few for the motor trade.

Jacob Rees Mogg has opened an office in Dublin for his vulture fund. Many financial operations have opened offices within the EU27, with the intention of moving business over following Brexit.

Not sure how far the UK Gov are getting on, but they have plans for lorry queues on all the motorways into Dover, and they are planning a customs post for Milton Keynes, just a few hundred miles from any port. They are advertising for customs inspectors for Belfast - I think eight posts.

I am sure it will all work out well.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

Is it? What preparations have Ireland done? Have we put in new lanes at the ports for UK and Non UK bound? What have we done in terms of additional workers and the plans for policing the border?

Sky News last week came out with documents from France saying that they were not close to being ready. Recently we had the Airports claiming that they weren't ready.

I am not saying everyone is ready. I am saying the EUs plans are more advanced than the UKs. I can't find the story with a quick Google, but I think it was last May or so when Varadkar told his officials to stop talking about their preparations as they were "more advanced" than the UKs and we don't want to give them ideas.

listermint

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

We all know the EU is far, far better prepared even now for hard Brexit than the UK, who have drawn a few plans on beermats.

All this noise at the conference means less than nothing - it is not aimed at the EU or even the British public, just the party faithful.

After the conference season, the EU and UK will settle on some date as the last minute. Then they will miss that date and agree a new last, last minute. Then they will talk for 36 hours straight and emerge disheveled and blinking right at the deadline.

They will agree to a Canada style FTA with a carve-out for NI. The media language will suddenly change (especially the BBC). It'll be well played everyone, those were the toughest negotiations in the history of negotiating, we got the absolutely best deal out of the EU possible given our red lines, Rule Britannia, declare victory and head home.

It isn't a conspiracy, it's a performance, a clown show.

All of this is on the proposition that they want a Deal. You have no evidence to demonstrate that they do. Zero.

And the EU working along the lines that they want a deal and some form of last minute deal will be signed prior to E day, is not actually thinking critically. They may literally not want a deal and to be a very close land bordered thorn in the EU side.

We need that level of preparation and to be clued in to the fact that the Russians wont stop at the UK, they are sowing discontent across the continent.

If we go around like some fools thinking we 'got this' and we are well prepared then we are not seeing the real enemy here an ultra right conservative government who has decades of experience of Twisting deals and thinking strategically for their own benefit at all times.


The EU need to be careful, The hapless idiots show is that its a performance. The real crust is around the edges of what they are saying.

prawnsambo

listermint wrote: »

All of this is on the proposition that they want a Deal. You have no evidence to demonstrate that they do. Zero.

And the EU working along the lines that they want a deal and some form of last minute deal will be signed prior to E day, is not actually thinking critically. They may literally not want a deal and to be a very close land bordered thorn in the EU side.

We need that level of preparation and to be clued in to the fact that the Russians wont stop at the UK, they are sowing discontent across the continent.

If we go around like some fools thinking we 'got this' and we are well prepared then we are not seeing the real enemy here an ultra right conservative government who has decades of experience of Twisting deals and thinking strategically for their own benefit at all times.


The EU need to be careful, The hapless idiots show is that its a performance. The real crust is around the edges of what they are saying.

I'm not sure that we can assume the EU Commission are unaware that this possibility exists. Or that they aren't getting prepared for the eventuality no matter how samll or large the chances are estimated to be. All the preparedness notices take no deal brexit as a possibility. The assumptions are all based on no deal and that a deal may ameliorate some or all issues arising.

According to Jason Hunter (referenced above), even the WTO have been running models based on a no deal scenario. Stuff has got very real since TM has stil refused to come up with a viable backstop arrangement that has everyone's support. And the brinkmanship on that issue alone would be giving plenty of pause for thought in Brussels.

ilovesmybrick

Honestly, how in the name of god could Boris Johnson actually get elected. In his speech he's talking about the British success in manufacturing toblerone stands for Dubai and prosecuting the authors of chequers under fourteenth century laws. It's absurd. What a dithering idiot, and it says a lot about the state of the Tory party and Theresa May that he's actually a powerful force.

Lemming

murphaph wrote: »

I'm starting to feel the same. These characters need it. I do feel sorry for remainers though but they should be much more vocal too.

Rhineshark wrote: »

And then they will act surprised and offended at the deeply unreasonable EU being mean to them and pretending they have not been forcing this outcome. Their followers will lap up that it's all the fault of the EU/Remainers and the Remainers will seethe. Mind you, they do seem to be doing a lot of unreported protesting.

They/we have been vocal, are being vocal, and the MSM has for the most part either ignored or deliberately downplayed the scale of protests that have happened and are still happening.

Sam Russell

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'm not sure that we can assume the EU Commission are unaware that this possibility exists. Or that they aren't getting prepared for the eventuality no matter how samll or large the chances are estimated to be. All the preparedness notices take no deal brexit as a possibility. The assumptions are all based on no deal and that a deal may ameliorate some or all issues arising.

According to Jason Hunter (referenced above), even the WTO have been running models based on a no deal scenario. Stuff has got very real since TM has stil refused to come up with a viable backstop arrangement that has everyone's support. And the brinkmanship on that issue alone would be giving plenty of pause for thought in Brussels.

Surely the fact that the EU has said that the deadline is October unless the UK has proposals that would indicate that an agreement is likely, then there will be no November summit. That would suggest they are aware of the UK dragging their feet to get to a midnight session where Ireland would be ceremonially thrown under the bus. They have countered by saying the bus will leave after the October summit, deal or no deal.

boggerman1

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Honestly, how in the name of god could Boris Johnson actually get elected. In his speech he's talking about the British success in manufacturing toblerone stands for Dubai and prosecuting the authors of chequers under fourteenth century laws. It's absurd. What a dithering idiot, and it says a lot about the state of the Tory party and Theresa May that he's actually a powerful force.

Him and moggy seem like demi god for the nutty Tories now.was looking at channel 4 news last nite and to see the amount of people queuing up to listen to mogg was mind-boggling.hope the Tories elect him as pm for the 17th century to see him crash and burn

FreudianSlippers

It sounds like Foster is now rowing in slightly behind Johnson - more likely due to her belief that there will be some upheaval rather than personal preference I'd guess.

prawnsambo

Sam Russell wrote: »

Surely the fact that the EU has said that the deadline is October unless the UK has proposals that would indicate that an agreement is likely, then there will be no November summit. That would suggest they are aware of the UK dragging their feet to get to a midnight session where Ireland would be ceremonially thrown under the bus. They have countered by saying the bus will leave after the October summit, deal or no deal.

The danger is that the UK could come up with some half arsed proposal that will require the EU to allow time to evaluate it and kick the can further down the road. Nothing as farcical as BoJo's bridge, but you get the general idea.

FreudianSlippers

prawnsambo wrote: »

The danger is that the UK could come up with some half arsed proposal that will require the EU to allow time to evaluate it and kick the can further down the road. Nothing as farcical as BoJo's bridge, but you get the general idea.

Very unlikely that the UK will be able to put anything to the EU that will take any time to consider/reject. Despite what is being said, the sides are still very far apart on core issues.

Zubeneschamali

prawnsambo wrote: »

The danger is that the UK could come up with some half arsed proposal that will require the EU to allow time to evaluate it and kick the can further down the road.

The EU is under no obligation to allow extra time for anything. If they've got nothing concrete at the October summit, reiterate the list of deals which are on the table (basically Norway or Canada+NI backstop) and tell them to pick one of those right there or it's No Deal.

Spook_ie

Solution to the "Border" problem, simples we change to driving on the right, no option but some kind of border infrastructure which could encompass whatever was wanted, if NI joined in a UI they start driving on the right and you demolish whatever was there.

Enzokk

listermint wrote: »

That would not be the case if the EU were not prepared for it. We could not feasibly have this former partner with a land based border actively engaged in subterfuge of our standards, taxes, regulations.

That is what they are aiming for and have actually threatened on purpose or accidentally on various occasions.

If the EU are not prepared fully for this then they can and would be taken by surprise. Pretending that they are no threat would be idiocy.

I don't think there will be 100% preparations for a no-deal Brexit because the idea that a country would harm itself that much is so crazy that there is no way to prepare for it if the UK doesn't signal its intentions to it.

But you will have to remember that the UK will not get a trade deal with the EU if it is purposefully engaged in trying to bring it down. What would the incentive be for the EU to engage in trade with the UK if they just intend to create chaos at the land border and with its low regulations? Why would the EU feed the monster that would harm it?

Surely in that case trade with the EU, which is very important for the UK, will drop dramatically. This would mean that any future trade deal the UK wants with other countries, e.g. Japan, would in no way be close to the current deal they enjoy (or could have enjoyed) because other countries trade in the UK because they are EU members.

Now they could have a great trade deal with the US, but they are 6-10 hours away by flight and the other way they are even further away from the trading partners that could make up for that lost trade. Would the US be able to replace all if its medicines and all of its essential supplies?

Lets pull at this thread a little longer and see how mental this theory really becomes. You need cancer medicine? No luck as no EURATOM. You need new medicines approved? No luck as no EMA. You need aircraft to be certified? No luck there either as to EASA. Could you realistically get all of this from the US if they are happy to allow the UK to leave without a deal? Would the UK people be happy to have maggots and fly eggs in their tinned tomatoes from the US?

Maggots are hiding in lots of your favorite foods — and it's perfectly legal

For tomato juice, the FDA limits up to five fly eggs and one maggot per 100 grams, the equivalent of a small juice glass. Up to 15 fly eggs and one maggot per 100 grams is allowed for tomato paste and other pizza sauces.

So the question really is, would the UK be able to replicate all the work they currently do not do because they are EU members in the next 6 months. Would they then be able to wait the time it will require the EU to acknowledge that these agencies are up to scratch and can be trusted? Or would they be able to get all that they need from the US and what will the cost be?

Leroy42 wrote: »

Is it? What preparations have Ireland done? Have we put in new lanes at the ports for UK and Non UK bound? What have we done in terms of additional workers and the plans for policing the border?

Sky News last week came out with documents from France saying that they were not close to being ready. Recently we had the Airports claiming that they weren't ready.

This is in continuation to my post above. I see no positives to the EU starting to build infrastructure right now to prepare for a no-deal Brexit. Optics is very important in a situation like this and most sane people still believe that the UK will hit the brakes before they plunge off that cliff. The EU doesn't want to do anything that makes the UK hesitate pushing the brake pedal. If they start the observable preparations already while a deal is still workable it will only rush us towards that end. We don't want that, the EU doesn't, the UK definitely doesn't and most of the rest of the world doesn't.

So I expect there to be no visible preparations for borders to be erected or staff to be employed because it will make an already tough negotiations even tougher.

listermint wrote: »

All of this is on the proposition that they want a Deal. You have no evidence to demonstrate that they do. Zero.

And the EU working along the lines that they want a deal and some form of last minute deal will be signed prior to E day, is not actually thinking critically. They may literally not want a deal and to be a very close land bordered thorn in the EU side.

We need that level of preparation and to be clued in to the fact that the Russians wont stop at the UK, they are sowing discontent across the continent.

If we go around like some fools thinking we 'got this' and we are well prepared then we are not seeing the real enemy here an ultra right conservative government who has decades of experience of Twisting deals and thinking strategically for their own benefit at all times.


The EU need to be careful, The hapless idiots show is that its a performance. The real crust is around the edges of what they are saying.

You know who will be absolutely fuming if there is actually no intention to make a deal? The world famous civil service who is actually in Brussels negotiating with the EU right now. The people behind the scenes talking and trying to make a deal from what they are being given by their politicians. If it turns out that they are being played for fools by their own government, I can easily see them being poached by the EU for their experience and because they would have been undervalued by their own employer. It would be a monumental waste of time of their own best people if they actually go through with this insane idea.

I keep saying it is insane because as I have been thinking about it, it makes less and less sense. Do we really think there would have been no leaks from the UK to show this? All we have seen so far is as talks have progressed that preparations for no-deal has been stepped up. This was not the case at the start. But like most conspiracy theories there could be an element of truth to it and you could provide valuable evidence to support it. But I just don't see how such an insane idea would be pushed through.

Also, what would the people on the street have to say about this? What will the farmers and manufacturers who will be wiped out (predictions by even Brexiteer economists, well the only one actually, Patrick Minford) and those that depend on them just be happy to not have an income any longer.

In other news, the DUP is about as happy about the border in the Irish Sea as you would have expected them. There is a few tweets in the thread where both Arlene Foster and Nigel Dodds about ruling out the proposed new backstop before the ink is even dry on the newspapers that reported it first last night.

https://twitter.com/LizzyBuchan/status/1047093664080703490

https://twitter.com/LizzyBuchan/status/1047096518375870466

Seth Brundle

swampgas wrote: »

This Q&A session...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmUJzXYiku8

I can't really watch it while I'm working so can't comment on the substance but looking at images of it can't help but think that the panel look like some hippies or people who the public would generally look at and question whether what they say can be taken seriously.

Rhineshark

Enzokk - does what they are doing at the moment make any sense though? They have been playing up No Deal as nothing for anyone to worry their little plebian heads over.

Yes, it is bat**** insane. But all I have heard coming out of the UK for two years is frankly, bat**** insanity. And I do not like the disastor capitalists being involved and they have been since May's reshuffle, if not when she came in originally.

I am getting to the point of also believing that we need to be moving on the concrete (no pun intended) plans.

listermint

This goes to show you whats going on, Ducking and diving and know they will get the hard questions on CH.4


https://twitter.com/jonsnowC4/status/1047108692137652224

Inquitus

listermint wrote: »

This goes to show you whats going on, Ducking and diving and know they will get the hard questions on CH.4

Yep, clearly afraid of a live interview with hard and honest questions about Brexit, very sad.

swampgas

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I can't really watch it while I'm working so can't comment on the substance but looking at images of it can't help but think that the panel look like some hippies or people who the public would generally look at and question whether what they say can be taken seriously.

The two main speakers, despite appearances perhaps, are extremely well qualified to speak about Brexit and Trade.

Stuart Brown - Policy Implementation Specialist
https://www.linkedin.com/in/stuart-brown-72746313/

Jason Hunter - Former International Trade Negotiator
Well known from the "Three blokes in a pub" series of videos.
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=%233Blokes

sink

Rhineshark wrote: »

Enzokk - does what they are doing at the moment make any sense though? They have been playing up No Deal as nothing for anyone to worry their little plebian heads over.

Yes, it is bat**** insane. But all I have heard coming out of the UK for two years is frankly, bat**** insanity. And I do not like the disastor capitalists being involved and they have been since May's reshuffle, if not when she came in originally.

I am getting to the point of also believing that we need to be moving on the concrete (no pun intended) plans.

It's very simple. They are failing so badly because the Tory party is not focused on negotiating the best deal with the EU in the interest of the UK.

Instead, due to a power vacuum as a result of weak leadership, Tory politicians are competing with each other to appeal to the party members (less than 5% of conservative voters) in order position themselves and their co-conspirators in pole position. So that when Theresa May inevitable succumbs to her wounds (self inflicted and otherwise) they can more easily win the race to be the next leader.

It's got very little to do with the EU, or what's best for the future of the UK, or even about personal monetary gain. It has everything to do with self-aggrandizement.

It's an unfortunately truth that the people most unsuited to lead are the ones who seek it. They are the people who crave power, for nothing other than it's own ends. Viewing individual politicians through this prism explains everything that is happening right now.

swampgas

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/02/brexit-eu-hits-out-irresponsible-uk-northern-ireland

The DUP are threatening to pull the plug if there is any kind of sea border ... no surprises there.

Enzokk

Rhineshark wrote: »

Enzokk - does what they are doing at the moment make any sense though? They have been playing up No Deal as nothing for anyone to worry their little plebian heads over.

Yes, it is bat**** insane. But all I have heard coming out of the UK for two years is frankly, bat**** insanity. And I do not like the disastor capitalists being involved and they have been since May's reshuffle, if not when she came in originally.

I am getting to the point of also believing that we need to be moving on the concrete (no pun intended) plans.

I think we will sleepwalk into a no-deal, but not because of some great conspiracy. It will be because of the incompetence of the politicians in the UK at the moment. May has shown how incompetent she is with her Windrush scandal. She has not taken any responsibility for it.

I think she probably thought she was doing the right thing by trying to get the result of the vote and appointing some of those responsible to the cabinet, but her problem is that those that supported leaving the EU isn't the sharpest pennies around, or they are only out for themselves. Boris Johnson falls into the latter category, Davis in the former. So she hamstrung herself with the worst cabinet in history most likely, then she had her allies fired for her own incompetence (Rudd) so she became more isolated.

But the kicker is the DUP. Let's be honest and say that without the DUP we would not be where we are now. The UK signed off on December on the withdrawal agreement. The cabinet signed off on it, but the DUP added the fly to the ointment. That is not some grand conspiracy, that is just bad luck with the arithmetic of the seats in the HoC and the insane idea to get into bed with them.

So for me it is far more likely to explain all of this chaos not to some grand plan by the likes of (btw who is in charge of such a conspiracy?) whoever is pulling the strings and rather to bad politicians in charge and a little bad luck.

Also, lets not forget if Labour had their ducks in order there most likely would be a General Election now but they had their MPs voting with the government. For a conspiracy theory a lot of things had to fall into place for this to happen.

And if you are hesitant to write all of this off to just bad timing and luck, look at almost any aircraft accident and you will see a series of events that happen in sequence that cause an accident. Unless a pilot literally flies an aircraft into the ground there usually is some events that had they happened differently then there would be no accident.

As an example, very simplified the AF447 crash, the Captain goes for rest and hands over to inexperienced first officers just before they fly through thunderstorms, pitot tubes freeze up, pilot in charge follows wrong procedure and causes plane to stall and crash. Had the captain not gone for a rest there and waited for an hour, had there not been thunderstorms, had the pilot in charge at the critical moment followed the correct procedure then no crash.

This is every much what we are seeing here. In hindsight there will be many small moments we will lament that had it turned out differently then we would not be where we are, I just don't see a big conspiracy.

Seth Brundle

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I can't really watch it while I'm working so can't comment on the substance but looking at images of it can't help but think that the panel look like some hippies or people who the public would generally look at and question whether what they say can be taken seriously.

I watched around three quarters of it. They were very knowledgeable and the old guy right of the main speaker (their right), was very good.

Inquitus

Enzokk wrote: »

Snip

I full agree, this is a tragedy of bad circumstance:

Cameron resigning
May winning
Corbyn being leader of Labour
The failed Election
The DUP holding the balance of power

At every turn, circumstance has made this an almost impossible task. The only hope now is the Gov cannot pass anything when it is agreed, which is likely, and MP's are forced to consider what to do to move things forwards, be it a second referendum, a GE or whatever.

RobertKK

But they could...

https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1046772727418368000

Notions, or one could say pride comes before a fall.

fash

It doesn't need to have been a "grand conspiracy" from the start.
A no deal was always a possibility- and had the political attraction that no one needed to explain their plan.
A no deal was always a favoured option of disaster capitalists-types and other ideologues. E.g. Mogg and possibly Liam Fox).
All it takes is that "pragmatic" (i.e. ruthless, sociopathic and self- serving) politicians start to view it as their best path forward to retain power (E.g. Gove/Theresa May) for that to become the plan.
I would guess that something like that could form after /at the time of the December 2017 phase 1 and before Chequers - and look for behaviour that confirms this during this time.

Even assuming that there are sources releasing this information however, there is always the possibility that such behaviour is to simulate an apparently plausible "best alternative to a negotiated settlement" - a form of "don't think that you can just offer us slightly more than a no deal and we'll take it. It needs to be substantially more, or else we'll just walk away and blame you" statement from the UK to the EU.

The cost to the UK as a whole because of it would be astronomical though- the loss of much industry, agri-food business, instant recession/depression (and let's not forget the world is at a late stage of the current economic cycle/super bubble at zero interest rates and massive debt), massive problems for retired UK people in Spain/France etc.