Brexit discussion thread IV

lawred2

Imreoir2 wrote: »

White paper stresses that the backstop wont need to be used, might indicate that the UK is preparing to accept the supposedly unacceptable and agree a backstop that would keep NI in the Single Market and Customs Union on the basis that the backstop will never be needed anyway.

sure wouldn't it be easier to just you know - not leave

trellheim

And a lot of those works are dependent on Gibraltar being part of EU; once that goes...

yes indeed tax friendly data centres in a big rock outside the EU not much business there lol

Professor Moriarty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1017382871466733569

It's not possible to simultaneously be polite and to speak about Mogg. Suffice to say that elitism and lies make a particularly obnoxious concoction.

Dont be at yourself

trellheim wrote: »

yes indeed tax friendly data centres in a big rock outside the EU not much business there lol

Gambling companies based there are starting to move more operations to Malta.

Bet365 moving Gibraltar ops to Malta post-Brexit

You'd imagine Ireland have a decent chance of attracting some of those jobs too, given our indigenous gambling industry, favourable tax regime, tech companies here etc.

joeysoap

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

Gambling companies based there are starting to move more operations to Malta.

Bet365 moving Gibraltar ops to Malta post-Brexit

You'd imagine Ireland have a decent chance of attracting some of those jobs too, given our indigenous gambling industry, favourable tax regime, tech companies here etc.

BoyleSports have a place there, and Thailand and use IOM address. Anywhere there’s a) no tax. Or b) cheap Labour

trellheim

Some fudge on EAW ( European Arrest Warrant ) in that doc ... trourble ahead

EdgeCase

I'd say Gibraltar in the big scheme of things isn't even registering with the Tories. They're barely concerned with Northern Ireland, and that has a party supporting them in Government and a history of extreme violence.

FrancieBrady

Pretty much on the money. The softening continues.

https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1017377983848476673

Dont be at yourself

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

Gambling companies based there are starting to move more operations to Malta.

Bet365 moving Gibraltar ops to Malta post-Brexit

You'd imagine Ireland have a decent chance of attracting some of those jobs too, given our indigenous gambling industry, favourable tax regime, tech companies here etc.

Nah it'll all be Malta.

ancapailldorcha

It's looking more and more like the British establishment, instead of looking at why Brexit happened will simply try and foist more neoliberalism onto people who, it could quite reasonably be argued just voted to reject it.

From Prospect magazine (based on polling by Global Future linked in the article):



The way that the British establishment has allowed globalisation to proceed by not deigning to manage it at all is at the heart of why the UK voted to leave. Instead of investing in better public services, housing, infrastructure and training for those who lose out from globalisation they instead opted to fiddle expenses and embark on a costly and disastrous escapade to Iraq thus eviscerating their own credibility in the eyes of the electorate.

The article argues, quite well that more globalisation is exactly the opposite of what people voted for and yet we have the likes of Boris Johnson and Liam Fox bleating on and on about "Global Britain" which is coming more and more to resemble attempts to lower regulatory standards, diminish people's rights (recall the Tories' wet dream of repealing the Human Rights Act) and make the most economically deprived areas of the UK even more so. Then we have Dominic "British people would rather lie in than work hard" Raab. The winner of all this isn't going to be the British working class, it'll be hedge fund managing Brexiteer elites like Arron Banks and Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Given that younger voters tended to favour remain and tend to be more liberal, it stands to reason that the remain argument is the one which will win out over time. The problem there is that March 2019 and the Article 50 deadline contained therein will come first.

Havockk

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's looking more and more like the British establishment, instead of looking at why Brexit happened will simply try and foist more neoliberalism onto people who, it could quite reasonably be argued just voted to reject it.

From Prospect magazine (based on polling by Global Future linked in the article):



The way that the British establishment has allowed globalisation to proceed by not deigning to manage it at all is at the heart of why the UK voted to leave. Instead of investing in better public services, housing, infrastructure and training for those who lose out from globalisation they instead opted to fiddle expenses and embark on a costly and disastrous escapade to Iraq thus eviscerating their own credibility in the eyes of the electorate.

The article argues, quite well that more globalisation is exactly the opposite of what people voted for and yet we have the likes of Boris Johnson and Liam Fox bleating on and on about "Global Britain" which is coming more and more to resemble attempts to lower regulatory standards, diminish people's rights (recall the Tories' wet dream of repealing the Human Rights Act) and make the most economically deprived areas of the UK even more so. Then we have Dominic "British people would rather lie in than work hard" Raab. The winner of all this isn't going to be the British working class, it'll be hedge fund managing Brexiteer elites like Arron Banks and Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Given that younger voters tended to favour remain and tend to be more liberal, it stands to reason that the remain argument is the one which will win out over time. The problem there is that March 2019 and the Article 50 deadline contained therein will come first.

That's a saving of 350m a week... no need for that when the NHS is private.

Seriously though... this has always been on the cards from the outset.

CrabRevolution

The UK will go nowhere until they give up on the idea that in future they'll be treated as an equal to the entire EU.

The idea of a new court/arbitration procedure/commission that will be a superior authority over the EU/ECJ is untenable. If this new authority's decisions are binding over the EU, it would give the UK a huge say in EU law.

Not only that but the idea this new court would be split 50/50 between the UK and EU is astonishing. It'd be like the UK leaving the EU but being given a perpetual presidency of the EU.

I hypothesised on this topic before:

I'm wondering how the Brexiteers envisage their ideal arrangement of the UK and the EU each having their own standards but just sort of ignoring the differences and winging it.

So far they're making vague assurances of standards staying the same "in spirit", which apparently removes the need for customs checks and will allow the UK to export to the EU despite only adhering to their own standards.

Say for example the EU somehow agrees to this, that UK standards are ok for import to the EU. Then the UK decides one day in 2021 (to use our perennial example) "from midnight tonight chlorinated chicken is allowed by UK standards".

This will instantly fail EU standards. But the EU has agreed to allow imports that meet British standards. Are the EU obliged to accept it? Can the UK argue that it's illegal to block them from exporting chicken to the EU since the EU agreed to recognise british standards?

If it went to court what laws would the court refer to since the UK refuse to be subject to the ECJ?

I know the UK has suggested an "independent commission" but what legislation would the commission rule with since the UK is exempt form EU laws? Their gut feeling?

Say the commission somehow sides with the UK and allows chlorinated chicken to be exported to the EU, does this mean this new commission (of which the UK are set to comprise a third of the membership) is the highest authority in the EU and can overrule the EUs own laws?

trellheim

Think about the European Arrest warrant while you are at it .... It is subject to the CJEU

Enzokk

Not sure if this has been picked up, but the white paper sets out the "Facilitated Customs Arrangement" where the UK will collect tariffs for the EU.

It also confirms her proposed "Facilitated Customs Arrangement," a controversial customs arrangement which would see the UK collect EU tariffs on the bloc's behalf on goods before they reach the EU.

Theresa May confirms plan to keep UK wedded to EU rules after Brexit

But wasn't exactly this already informally dismissed by the EU? I understand it couldn't formally be rejected because it hadn't been proposed before today, yet all the indications so far has been that it will not fly with the EU.

The first, a “customs partnership” would see Britain collecting tariffs on behalf of the EU for goods entering the country en route to Europe and applying its own tariffs to imported goods destined for the British market.

The Telegraph reports that this was rejected by the EU on three grounds – that the EU could not allow a country outside its supervision mechanisms and IT systems to levy duties and that it unfairly placed the burden of collecting tariffs on business.

It was also rejected as implementing the scheme on the EU side of the channel would be too expensive.

EU rejects Theresa May’s Irish Border proposals, says report

So what are we playing at here? Either the UK Government is proposing ideas that will fail, or the EU will bend quite significantly. So which one is it?

An Ciarraioch

Slightly perplexed by this tweet by the Guardian's Lisa O'Carroll, she interprets it as meaning a shift in the Irish position, but it still says that both the backstop and the WA should be agreed by October:

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1017445159821283330

Leroy42

I haven't read the white paper, so going on leaks on info posted here, but my feeling on what the UK is at is that is about as far as No 10 felt that they could move from the Red lines. It isn't about them putting up ideas they know will be rejected, as that implies they are thinking in terms of the EU.

This white paper is primarily designed at the domestic audience, rowing them back from the position taken previously by TM without getting kicked out immediately. What it does indicate, to me anyway, is an acceptance that the red lines are simply not deliverable along with getting a deal.

I fully expect this to be the starting position of the UK, with significant row back on any numbers of sections in the coming weeks as the UK comes face to face with the reality and the likes of Boris et al are shown to have no alternatives.

Leroy42

Well the backstop is the fallback option should no negotiated agreement be arrived at. It is the safety blanket of the exit. Should both sides agree to a solution then no backstop is required.

As such the backstop is the worst option and is designed to get the UK to agree to a real workable solution

flutered

lawred2 wrote: »

sure wouldn't it be easier to just you know - not leave

there are quite a few inside the conservative party who require a no deal, there are many with connections in the same party who also require a no deal, the are demanding that a no deal is delivered to a trumpet fanfare

Beechwoodspark

The white paper is a non runner

trellheim

The white paper is a non runner

did some reason get lost there at all ?

lawred2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Slightly perplexed by this tweet by the Guardian's Lisa O'Carroll, she interprets it as meaning a shift in the Irish position, but it still says that both the backstop and the WA should be agreed by October:

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1017445159821283330

She has comprehension problems based on that extract

An Ciarraioch

Political analyst David Henig sums it up as a curate's egg of a document (good and bad in places):

https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1017466692224606208

Capt'n Midnight

Enzokk wrote: »

Not sure if this has been picked up, but the white paper sets out the "Facilitated Customs Arrangement" where the UK will collect tariffs for the EU.

They are talking about trusted traders and collecting tariff refunds.

IIRC there are about 22 Trusted traders in Canada for the purposes of NAFTA and the French are suing the UK for billions because they aren't screening stuff coming in the EU from China.

And like I keep pointing out this system relies on technology and software that just doesn't exist and is meant to be povided in record time by the usual rogues gallery that are responsible for 131 out of 133 big govt projects needing intervention.

Look at the UK defence forces.
The crowd responsible for buying kit is Defence Equipment and Support costs of most stuff is spiraling out of control. They have a headcount of 21,000.

Every time you see a lance corporal with a section of six soldiers , just remember there is another person employed to support them, and they are just as effective as HSE Administrators.

An Ciarraioch

Ian Dunt is one of the more perceptive UK analysts on Brexit:

http://politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/07/12/if-this-is-all-the-government-has-for-its-brexit-white-paper

Capt'n Midnight

Newsnight

THe Sun Interview with Trump , UK's White paper will kill off UK-US trade deal.

https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1017519225089519617


So much for UK doing independent trade deals

Water John

So Trump is now making a pitch for Farage. Bloody pathetic.

EdgeCase

Well, they did decide to trade the comfort of being a full EU member, with a bespoke deal that gave them more opt outs than a Hollywood prenup, to being in a situation where they’ll be bounced between the US, EU and China.

Trump smells weakness.

Water John

JRM thinks the UK is equal to those 3.

Enzokk

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Newsnight

THe Sun Interview with Trump , UK's White paper will kill off UK-US trade deal.

https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1017519225089519617


So much for UK doing independent trade deals

You couldn't make this up. As Theresa May is throwing a black tie dinner for Trump as well. It is absolutely hilarious, especially when she was talking about a trade deal with the US earlier in the evening.

Mrs May noted that more than one million Americans work for UK-owned firms, telling Mr Trump: "As we prepare to leave the European Union, we have an unprecedented opportunity to do more.

"It's an opportunity to reach a free trade agreement that creates jobs and growth here in the UK and right across the United States.

"It's also an opportunity to tear down the bureaucratic barriers that frustrate business leaders on both sides of the Atlantic.

"And it's an opportunity to shape the future of the world through co-operation in advanced technology, such as artificial intelligence."

Donald Trump: May presses case for US trade deal at dinner

I wonder if she felt the knife he stuck in her back. Its not enough that he absolutely destroys her white paper, he then praises Boris Johnson as well to add to her misery. Couldn't happen to a nice person to be honest. Now if she had any balls she would fight back against Trump. My guess is nothing will happen from her side.

Edit to add: By destroy I mean she will have to make a choice. The EU or the US. With Trump there will be only one choice, so either she chases a FTA with the US and its a hard Brexit, or she has no FTA with the US but close ties to the EU.

listermint

"It's also an opportunity to tear down the bureaucratic barriers that frustrate business leaders on both sides of the Atlantic"

And there you have it folks in plain English. Destroy working conditions, destroy environmental protections and destroy social protections.

Any absolute nutter that voted for this from any working class , actually any location which needs employment has just dumped all over their own protections. Pillars which the EU is renowned for the world over. Standards which the EU is renowned for the world over and that others have to measure themselves by if they want to come to this market.

Well done all who voted for this and voted for the Tories.


I always envisage the EU as a federation similar to star trek with lofty ideals and worldy outlook , it doesn't get it always right but it strives to achieve greatness. In this scenario they are up against the Klingons on the east and some rogue Romulans on the west who despise everything that the federation stands for .

EdgeCase

Well, vote Forengi, get deregulation and the Rules of Acquisition and a whole load of in fighting.

Unfortunately, I’m not really seeing any reality dawning, just the same nonsense and now Trump will play them like a fiddle.

If a deal gets hashed out with the EU which prevents one with the US, does that leave Ireland in a better position for investment etc.?

Jesus, the UK and its politicians are just hell-bent on ruining themselves.

Shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry said it was "extraordinarily rude of Donald Trump to behave like this".

Speaking to ITV's Good Morning Britain, the Labour MP said: "She is his host. What did his mother teach him? This is not the way you behave,"

"You need to stand up to him. She [Theresa May] is letting down our country by not standing up to him," she added.


Is it not easier to just shut up instead of bringing up the US president's mother a day after he threw doubt on a US trade deal, an obvious result of the UK adhering to EU regulations. His mother like.. You could not make this shlt up.

If they know what he's like, why rattle the cage more. Meaningless comments and stuff like the baby balloon helps no one long-term. I wouldn't be surprised if he just leaves and then everyone will feign surprise that he would do such a thing.

Christy42

Deleted User wrote: »

Jesus, the UK and its politicians are just hell-bent on ruining themselves.

Shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry said it was "extraordinarily rude of Donald Trump to behave like this".

Speaking to ITV's Good Morning Britain, the Labour MP said: "She is his host. What did his mother teach him? This is not the way you behave,"

"You need to stand up to him. She [Theresa May] is letting down our country by not standing up to him," she added.


Is it not easier to just shut up instead of bringing up the US president's mother a day after he threw doubt on a US trade deal, an obvious result of the UK adhering to EU regulations. His mother like.. You could not make this shlt up.

If they know what he's like, why rattle the cage more. Meaningless comments and stuff like the baby balloon helps no one long-term. I wouldn't be surprised if he just leaves and then everyone will feign surprise that he would do such a thing.

Brexit was a terrible idea but I am pretty sure the idea was not to become subservient to and terrified of criticizing the US.

I am pretty sure those putting up the balloon are not looking for a benefit. Many protests about human rights etc. Are not for the direct benefit of the protesters. The trade deal is not happening either way unless it is insanely unbalanced for the UK- look at the rest of his trade policy.

Make no mistake. Trump is actively attempting to hurt the UK here. He wants to force them away from a soft brexit. He is forcing them to choose between the EU and the US meaning they will be hurt either way.

Finally Macron tried the being nice to Trump approach and it doesn't work. He might not be in power by the time any trade deal is close to being done and he certainly won't remember the comments.

Anthracite

It's the Trumpiest thing in the world to encourage Brexit and then, when they jump from the safety of the EU, turn around and start with a very aggressive negotiating stance towards them, driving the most advantageous possible deal for the US (i.e. screwing the UK). Nobody should be in the least bit surprised by this.

McGiver

listermint wrote: »

"It's also an opportunity to tear down the bureaucratic barriers that frustrate business leaders on both sides of the Atlantic"

And there you have it folks in plain English. Destroy working conditions, destroy environmental protections and destroy social protections.

Any absolute nutter that voted for this from any working class , actually any location which needs employment has just dumped all over their own protections. Pillars which the EU is renowned for the world over. Standards which the EU is renowned for the world over and that others have to measure themselves by if they want to come to this market.

Well done all who voted for this and voted for the Tories.

Yes, hardcore neoliberal agenda. Exactly the one that destroyed industrial regions in the UK and gave rise to Brexit - a protest vote against the UK way of dealing with the globalisation.

Leroy42

IT will be very interesting to see the response from all the brexiteers to Trump. Remember how they all got so upset when Obama made comments about Brexit, how the US should stay out of their politics etc.

Or is it that they will use Trumps words as a basis to declare that they must go full Brexit. Taking back control by doing what the US tells them to do. Because this, in a nutshell, is the future for the UK. Whatever chance the EU has of dealing with Trump, the UK on its own is simply to dependent on the US to be able to exert any control.

That will be the same for dealing with India, China, Russia and yes, the EU.

lawred2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Ian Dunt is one of the more perceptive UK analysts on Brexit:

http://politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/07/12/if-this-is-all-the-government-has-for-its-brexit-white-paper

good read that

like the no nonsense style of writing as well

Akrasia

flutered wrote: »

there are quite a few inside the conservative party who require a no deal, there are many with connections in the same party who also require a no deal, the are demanding that a no deal is delivered to a trumpet fanfare

If any of these people have financial or other interests that stand to benefit from crashing the UK economy (like Farages buddies shorting the GBP) they should spend time in the tower of London and stand trial for the last remaining capital offense in Britain

brickster69

What an embarrassment this Baby Trump thing is. If you flew a 6 meter pig in the air you would probably get arrested. 
Totally fine though, to mock the President of the UK's longest standing ally in front of the worlds media.

You could not make it up if you tried.

Akrasia

brickster69 wrote: »

What an embarrassment this Baby Trump thing is. If you flew a 6 meter pig in the air you would probably get arrested. 
Totally fine though, to mock the President of the UK's longest standing ally in front of the worlds media.

You could not make it up if you tried.

Freedom of speech is one of the US most treasured institutions. Or it used to be anyway.

swampgas

brickster69 wrote: »

What an embarrassment this Baby Trump thing is. If you flew a 6 meter pig in the air you would probably get arrested. 
Totally fine though, to mock the President of the UK's longest standing ally in front of the worlds media.

You could not make it up if you tried.

Meh - with friends like Trump who needs enemies?

The real embarrassment is Trump himself. It's almost funny how he has exposed the UK's cringy subservience to an (at best) uncaring USA.

lawred2

brickster69 wrote: »

What an embarrassment this Baby Trump thing is. If you flew a 6 meter pig in the air you would probably get arrested. 
Totally fine though, to mock the President of the UK's longest standing ally in front of the worlds media.

You could not make it up if you tried.

you would like to suppress freedom of expression?

how very post modern of you...

Hurrache

brickster69 wrote: »

What an embarrassment this Baby Trump thing is. If you flew a 6 meter pig in the air you would probably get arrested. 

Well obviously not because they got permission from the authorities, and they haven't been arrested.

Christy42

brickster69 wrote: »

What an embarrassment this Baby Trump thing is. If you flew a 6 meter pig in the air you would probably get arrested. 
Totally fine though, to mock the President of the UK's longest standing ally in front of the worlds media.

You could not make it up if you tried.

I am pretty sure that they would have trouble arresting you for flying something you had a permit for...

How often has the EU been mocked over the last few years and the UK needs them more. Thankfully they are not as thin skinned as Trump. Plus Trump has already initiated a trade war with the EU and the UK.

However once again it is fine for Trump to insult others but my Christ people get offended when he is the object of an insult.

Nody

brickster69 wrote: »

What an embarrassment this Baby Trump thing is. If you flew a 6 meter pig in the air you would probably get arrested. 
Totally fine though, to mock the President of the UK's longest standing ally in front of the worlds media.

You could not make it up if you tried.

You mean the same alley who's publicly undercutting the PM of the their "longest standing ally"? Beyond the fact US has not been an ally of UK since the WW2 (even though UK keeps believing in there is a "special relationship" is very much a one way thing) it's the simple fact the current President of this so called ally is a big baby as shown by his own actions and word. They even had to shield him from the horror of having people protest against him by getting him away from it all.

Akrasia

Akrasia wrote: »

If the pro trump brigade get all 'offended' at the mere mention of Trump's mother then I think we're scraping the bottom of the barrel

Who's offended? I'm making a very basic observation about what the UK should do when it comes to Trump. It's called pragmatism and it's what this thread has been about. Go look at the other thread if you want to cheer on British politicians insulting the leader of the UK's most important post-Brexit trade partner.


Christy42, I've nothing really to say about your reply. You're not wrong but it's not really relevant. You're either pro, anti or don't care about UK politicians questioning Trump's mother's ability to raise children. If I were a Remainer, I'd be very very anti that sort of thing and I'd be livid if any Irish politician said similar during a US state visit, and we're not even remotely at the US' mercy like the UK is.

If Trump pulls a hissy fit which is very likely with everything that's going on, the UK's negotiating power is dead. It would be the biggest blow imaginable.

Nody

Deleted User wrote: »

Who's offended? I'm making a very basic observation about what the UK should do when it comes to Trump. It's called pragmatism and it's what this thread has been about. Go look at the other thread if you want to cheer on British politicians insulting the leader of the UK's most important post-Brexit trade partner.

Sorry but that will still be EU; there's a reason why CAs etc. tend to be done by countries close together in the first place.

If Trump pulls a hissy fit which is very likely with everything that's going on, the UK's negotiating power is dead. It would be the biggest blow imaginable.

What negotiation power? UK has zero power in negotiation a deal beyond saying no; this has been shown multiple times from the Bombardier fiasco to the unoffical attempts to negotiate a open air agreement with the US to the FTA feelers sent out where UK were told in no uncertain terms what US expected them to change.

Nody

Nody wrote: »

Sorry to burst your bubble but that will still be EU; there's a reason why CAs etc. tend to be done by countries close together in the first place.

Surely you must realise that I would include the EU as part of Brexit. America would be the first major post-Brexit deal. So you're not popping any bubbles here and I don't even know why would think there are bubbles to pop. An utterly strange comment.

Nody wrote: »

What negotiation power? UK has zero power in negotiation a deal beyond saying no; this has been shown multiple times from the Bombardier fiasco to the unoffical attempts to negotiate a open air agreement with the US to the FTA feelers sent out where UK were told in no uncertain terms what US expected them to change.

Negotiations with the EU. If the EU know that the UK can't even deal with America after they leave, the EU gains a huge advantage.

Akrasia

Deleted User wrote: »

If Trump pulls a hissy fit which is very likely with everything that's going on, the UK's negotiating power is dead. It would be the biggest blow imaginable.

How can you negotiate a complex bilateral free trade agreement with someone who is liable to 'throw a hissy fit' at any point over the course of a multi year negotiation period for even the smallest provocation?