Brexit discussion thread IV

Leroy42

So Arlene Foster has come out in support of Boris' Brexit plan (which to me sounded like a man shouting at clouds!) but she also said that the GFA is not sacrosanct and could evolve.

Now, putting aside the history of the DUP and the GFA, could someone maybe help set me straight on this.

As far as I am aware, the GFA can only be changed with a vote in NI. Is that correct?
Would it also require a vote in ROI or not? I am not clear on that but assume it is not.

judeboy101

Leroy42 wrote: »

So Arlene Foster has come out in support of Boris' Brexit plan (which to me sounded like a man shouting at clouds!) but she also said that the GFA is not sacrosanct and could evolve.

Now, putting aside the history of the DUP and the GFA, could someone maybe help set me straight on this.

As far as I am aware, the GFA can only be changed with a vote in NI. Is that correct?
Would it also require a vote in ROI or not? I am not clear on that but assume it is not.

They can't change gfa without consent, but the can do new deals like St Andrews and Stormont agreement that augment gfa.

Junkyard Tom

Leroy42 wrote: »

As far as I am aware, the GFA can only be changed with a vote in NI. Is that correct?

This twitter thread might help us understand the GFA a bit more, just reading it myself.

twitter.com/IRLPatricia

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

So Arlene Foster has come out in support of Boris' Brexit plan (which to me sounded like a man shouting at clouds!) but she also said that the GFA is not sacrosanct and could evolve.

Now, putting aside the history of the DUP and the GFA, could someone maybe help set me straight on this.

As far as I am aware, the GFA can only be changed with a vote in NI. Is that correct?
Would it also require a vote in ROI or not? I am not clear on that but assume it is not.

The pro Brexit cry has been 'respect the Will of the People'. So let them respect the overwhelming support given to the GFA by the people of NI and by the people of Ireland. Now that is The Will of the People. The DUP ge 30% of the vote in NI at the last election - not the voice of that many people.

trellheim

Just watching twitter Dutch just in to see Barnier and now off to Germany to finalize stuff , Varadkar in or them on Thursday ,and SF tomorrow . Wtf is going on unless it’s all behind the curtains look up axel dittmann on Twitter

Barnier is in Romania cos they are next for eu presidency telling them what the edges are gonna look like ... this all smells like shenanigans

An Ciarraioch

Never! Never! Never! As Paisley used to say:

https://mobile.twitter.com/DUPleader/status/1047177009040908288

Mr.Nice Guy

I think the DUP have calculated that a general election is in their best interests, rather than fight a "People's Vote" (which they would likely lose), or an NI-specific referendum on accepting Customs checks at ports (which they would also likely lose).

They can bring down the government and go back to their electorate telling them that they have stood up for the unionist people, and that it is more important than ever that the people back them in the next election. I think this message will be enthusiastically supported amongst their unionist base. RHI will take a back seat when they make it all about the constitutional question.

If polls are to be believed there has been little change between the Tories and Labour, and I believe the latter still trail this woeful administration. That means there is a chance the DUP could again hold significant sway if they are potential kingmakers once again.

And if it all results in Brexit not happening, or else happening with checks in the sea? The cynic in me thinks this will not bother them as much as they claim. As has been pointed out, they supported Brexit whilst privately thinking it wouldn't really happen. While there are die-hard Brexiteers like Wilson and Dodds, I'm not sure this is a view shared throughout the party, particularly amongst MLAs. I think there will be those like Simon Hamilton, and possibly Arlene herself, who are aware of Brexit's potential to exacerbate divisions and further advance the chance of reunification.

flutered

listermint wrote: »

This goes to show you whats going on, Ducking and diving and know they will get the hard questions on CH.4


https://twitter.com/jonsnowC4/status/1047108692137652224

listermint wrote: »

This goes to show you whats going on, Ducking and diving and know they will get the hard questions on CH.4


https://twitter.com/jonsnowC4/status/1047108692137652224

he not the only one who has been denied access to the cons

trellheim

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I think the DUP have calculated that a general election is in their best interests, rather than fight a "People's Vote" (which they would likely lose), or an NI-specific referendum on accepting Customs checks at ports (which they would also likely lose).

They can bring down the government and go back to their electorate telling them that they have stood up for the unionist people, and that it is more important than ever that the people back them in the next election. I think this message will be enthusiastically supported amongst their unionist base. RHI will take a back seat when they make it all about the constitutional question.

If polls are to be believed there has been little change between the Tories and Labour, and I believe the latter still trail this woeful administration. That means there is a chance the DUP could again hold significant sway if they are potential kingmakers once again.

And if it all results in Brexit not happening, or else happening with checks in the sea? The cynic in me thinks this will not bother them as much as they claim. As has been pointed out, they supported Brexit whilst privately thinking it wouldn't really happen. While there are die-hard Brexiteers like Wilson and Dodds, I'm not sure this is a view shared throughout the party, particularly amongst MLAs. I think there will be those like Simon Hamilton, and possibly Arlene herself, who are aware of Brexit's potential to exacerbate divisions and further advance the chance of reunification.

look at it like this. NI farmers will have it very hard with no deal and will not go well for them at elections

Hurrache

The DUP will suffer at election time over this, not benefit. The UUP will be the beneficiaries, they've been critical of the UUP's stance, and more accurately reflect the majority will of the 6 counties on this.

Infini

Hurrache wrote: »

The DUP will suffer at election time over this, not benefit. The UUP will be the beneficiaries, they've been critical of the UUP's stance, and more accurately reflect the majority will of the 6 counties on this.

Honestly its a pity the UUP have fallen to the wayside in recent years. They at least understood that brexit was opening a pandoras box of issues that undermined the unionist cause in the long run. Maybe they can attack the DUP hard by hammering their policies for allowing the reactivation of the UI question in our lifetimes and putting 20 years of prosperity at risk for absolutely no benefit.

An Ciarraioch

Appears UK planes will fly - EASA now effectively treating the UK as a non-EU country:

https://mobile.twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1047178481505898496

flutered

listermint wrote: »

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

We all know the EU is far, far better prepared even now for hard Brexit than the UK, who have drawn a few plans on beermats.

All this noise at the conference means less than nothing - it is not aimed at the EU or even the British public, just the party faithful.

After the conference season, the EU and UK will settle on some date as the last minute. Then they will miss that date and agree a new last, last minute. Then they will talk for 36 hours straight and emerge disheveled and blinking right at the deadline.

They will agree to a Canada style FTA with a carve-out for NI. The media language will suddenly change (especially the BBC). It'll be well played everyone, those were the toughest negotiations in the history of negotiating, we got the absolutely best deal out of the EU possible given our red lines, Rule Britannia, declare victory and head home.

It isn't a conspiracy, it's a performance, a clown show.

All of this is on the proposition that they want a Deal. You have no evidence to demonstrate that they do. Zero.

And the EU working along the lines that they want a deal and some form of last minute deal will be signed prior to E day, is not actually thinking critically. They may literally not want a deal and to be a very close land bordered thorn in the  EU side.

We need that level of preparation and to be clued in to the fact that the Russians wont stop at the UK, they are sowing discontent across the continent.

If we go around like some fools thinking we 'got this' and we are well prepared then we are not seeing the real enemy here an ultra right conservative government who has decades of experience of Twisting deals and thinking strategically for their own benefit at all times.


The EU need to be careful, The hapless idiots show is that its a performance. The real crust is around the edges of what they are saying.

the eu have been on the recieving end of attacks from the uk since they joined, its since before the referendum that the torys has gone into fourth gear, in the past week or so they have gone into overdrive, i believe the eu are smart enough to know whats going on,. both legally and illegally

Larbre34

Hurrache wrote: »

The DUP will suffer at election time over this, not benefit. The UUP will be the beneficiaries, they've been critical of the UUP's stance, and more accurately reflect the majority will of the 6 counties on this.

I disagree. The DUPs vote is solidly embedded in the 44% against Brexit. I cant see their vote being effected by Brexit, the Border, cash for ash, the Stormont stale mate, abortion rights or anything else frankly.

I always remember a fella vox-popped on the TV news around the time of the last Stormont poll, youngish fella, not typical DUP profile. He said he didnt want to vote for them because they didnt really reflect his social views, but he did because they were the only main party guaranteed to protect the Union and everything else was secondary in these times.

flutered

Seth Brundle wrote: »

swampgas wrote: »

This Q&A session...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmUJzXYiku8

I can't really watch it while I'm working so can't comment on the substance but looking at images of it can't help but think that the panel look like some hippies or people who the public would generally look at and question whether what they say can be taken seriously.

one does not have to be in a shiny suit white shirt and tie to be articulate

listermint wrote: »

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

We all know the EU is far, far better prepared even now for hard Brexit than the UK, who have drawn a few plans on beermats.

All this noise at the conference means less than nothing - it is not aimed at the EU or even the British public, just the party faithful.

After the conference season, the EU and UK will settle on some date as the last minute. Then they will miss that date and agree a new last, last minute. Then they will talk for 36 hours straight and emerge disheveled and blinking right at the deadline.

They will agree to a Canada style FTA with a carve-out for NI. The media language will suddenly change (especially the BBC). It'll be well played everyone, those were the toughest negotiations in the history of negotiating, we got the absolutely best deal out of the EU possible given our red lines, Rule Britannia, declare victory and head home.

It isn't a conspiracy, it's a performance, a clown show.

All of this is on the proposition that they want a Deal. You have no evidence to demonstrate that they do. Zero.

And the EU working along the lines that they want a deal and some form of last minute deal will be signed prior to E day, is not actually thinking critically. They may literally not want a deal and to be a very close land bordered thorn in the  EU side.

We need that level of preparation and to be clued in to the fact that the Russians wont stop at the UK, they are sowing discontent across the continent.

If we go around like some fools thinking we 'got this' and we are well prepared then we are not seeing the real enemy here an ultra right conservative government who has decades of experience of Twisting deals and thinking strategically for their own benefit at all times.


The EU need to be careful, The hapless idiots show is that its a performance. The real crust is around the edges of what they are saying.

the eu have been on the recieving end of attacks from the uk since they joined, its since before the referendum that the torys has gone into fourth gear, in the past week or so they have gone into overdrive, i believe the eu are smart enough to know whats going on,. both legally and illegally

Akrasia

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Appears UK planes will fly - EASA now effectively treating the UK as a non-EU country:

https://mobile.twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1047178481505898496

This looks like they're starting the application process early to allow them to gain certification, but can all the UK aviation, training and maintenance entities become certified with 3rd country approval by March next year?

flutered

swampgas wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/02/brexit-eu-hits-out-irresponsible-uk-northern-ireland

The DUP are threatening to pull the plug if there is any kind of sea border ... no surprises there.

their is a large pro brexit march planne for belfast city hall for later this month, this should give an inkling of some kind on the way the wind is blowing up there

lawred2

flutered wrote: »

their is a large pro brexit march planne for belfast city hall for later this month, this should give an inkling of some kind on the way the wind is blowing up there

I'm sure we can expect quite a few tricolours to be set alight as is the norm for such 'marches'

badtoro

Enzokk - from what I see, farmers over there are salivating at the prospect of no deal. Right or wrong they seem to believe fortress Britain will be fed by they and they alone. That competitive foreign products will be tarriffed off the shelves, a weak pound will work in their favour to export, regulations will be non existent. They seem particularly happy at the notion of ridding themselves of Irish beef & dairy, and fcuking with other Irish agricultural products that may use Britain as a land bridge to Europe.

I seriously would not rely on British farming to do a deal.

I agree with other posters saying a no deal outcome is what's going to end up happening. I see much angry frothing, and expectant salivating of such on UK forums I used to participate on. Not just the farming industry, but other (large and established) hobby sites that draw people from all kinds of backgrounds.

Ireland is gambling at serious peril if it's not in the end of advanced no deal planning. I would also agree, optics be damned, physical infrastructure should be well under way by now.

swampgas

badtoro wrote: »

Enzokk - from what I see, farmers over there are salivating at the prospect of no deal. Right or wrong they seem to believe fortress Britain will be fed by they and they alone. That competitive foreign products will be tarriffed off the shelves, a weak pound will work in their favour to export, regulations will be non existent. They seem particularly happy at the notion of ridding themselves of Irish beef & dairy, and fcuking with other Irish agricultural products that may use Britain as a land bridge to Europe.

I seriously would not rely on British farming to do a deal.

That's an interesting insight. If the DUP are picking up similar sentiment it will only harden their stance against the EU.

I agree with other posters saying a no deal outcome is what's going to end up happening. I see much angry frothing, and expectant salivating of such on UK forums I used to participate on. Not just the farming industry, but other (large and established) hobby sites that draw people from all kinds of backgrounds.

I agree, and it appears the fight back by remainers may be too little too late.

Ireland is gambling at serious peril if it's not in the end of advanced no deal planning. I would also agree, optics be damned, physical infrastructure should be well under way by now.

I'd agree, but expect that the UK and Ireland would both prefer for the other to go first. If Ireland start putting up anything remotely visible at the border, the UK will have the excuse they need to do the same thing. And vice versa. I wouldn't be surprised if the first border controls are simple manned checkpoints with no infrastructure at all, set up overnight.

BonnieSituation

swampgas wrote: »

That's an interesting insight. If the DUP are picking up similar sentiment it will only harden their stance against the EU.

I agree, and it appears the fight back by remainers may be too little too late.

I'd agree, but expect that the UK and Ireland would both prefer for the other to go first. If Ireland start putting up anything remotely visible at the border, the UK will have the excuse they need to do the same thing. And vice versa. I wouldn't be surprised if the first border controls are simple manned checkpoints with no infrastructure at all, set up overnight.

Simple manned checkpoints are infrastructure

mayo.mick

swampgas

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Simple manned checkpoints are infrastructure

Agreed. But the point is that it can be put up on midnight on the day of a hard Brexit without any advance warning.

Putting actual bricks and mortar on the border before absolutely necessary is going to avoided, IMO.

badtoro

swampgas wrote: »

badtoro wrote: »

Enzokk - from what I see, farmers over there are salivating at the prospect of no deal. Right or wrong they seem to believe fortress Britain will be fed by they and they alone. That competitive foreign products will be tarriffed off the shelves, a weak pound will work in their favour to export, regulations will be non existent. They seem particularly happy at the notion of ridding themselves of Irish beef & dairy, and fcuking with other Irish agricultural products that may use Britain as a land bridge to Europe.

I seriously would not rely on British farming to do a deal.

That's an interesting insight. If the DUP are picking up similar sentiment it will only harden their stance against the EU.

I agree with other posters saying a no deal outcome is what's going to end up happening. I see much angry frothing, and expectant salivating of such on UK forums I used to participate on. Not just the farming industry, but other (large and established) hobby sites that draw people from all kinds of backgrounds.

I agree, and it appears the fight back by remainers may be too little too late.

Ireland is gambling at serious peril if it's not in the end of advanced no deal planning. I would also agree, optics be damned, physical infrastructure should be well under way by now.

I'd agree, but expect that the UK and Ireland would both prefer for the other to go first. If Ireland start putting up anything remotely visible at the border, the UK will have the excuse they need to do the same thing. And vice versa. I wouldn't be surprised if the first border controls are simple manned checkpoints with no infrastructure at all, set up overnight.

I'm not sure about NI farmers, a lot of NI lamb comes to factories down here, not familiar with the cross border dairy sit-chee'ashun. There's also the Irish sea and will it won't it be a border for them question. Farmers in fortress Britain don't have that issue.

Some I'd, in a normal situation, put into "don't know" category of soft leave or remain just seem to be of the opinion we're fed up of this sh1t, for better or worse just get on with it.

We needn't touch the border, but we could develop our infrastructure at ports, airports etc. to hedge our reliance on the British land bridge. Other exporting nations, NZ, Australia etc no doubt could have interesting examples for us, shorter distances but sea or air transport a must.

In overall Brexit terms, I don't trust the British, I don't see them as our, or the EU's friend or ally at this particular point in time. I believe they're "negotiating" in bad faith and would be happy to harm the EU, perhaps with the assistance of Hungary, Italy or other Orange folk (who don't march).

swampgas

badtoro wrote: »

We needn't touch the border, but we could develop our infrastructure at ports, airports etc. to hedge our reliance on the British land bridge. Other exporting nations, NZ, Australia etc no doubt could have interesting examples for us, shorter distances but sea or air transport a must.

As I see it, we simply won't have that choice. Our border will be an EU border. We will have to track what is coming in and out, otherwise we risk losing our own access to the rest of the EU.

Imreoir2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Appears UK planes will fly - EASA now effectively treating the UK as a non-EU country:

https://mobile.twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1047178481505898496

The planes themselves might be able to fly, but not if they take off from a UK airport post no-deal Brexit.

Capt'n Midnight

Akrasia wrote: »

This looks like they're starting the application process early to allow them to gain certification, but can all the UK aviation, training and maintenance entities become certified with 3rd country approval by March next year?

Here's the update and application forms so should be simple enough except that the certificates aren't cheap :eek:

There's also a clear warning about midnight (00h00) on 29 March 2019 unless there's a transitional deal.

badtoro

swampgas wrote: »

As I see it, we simply won't have that choice. Our border will be an EU border. We will have to track what is coming in and out, otherwise we risk losing our own access to the rest of the EU.

Sorry, yes, I agree. I meant "yet" in terms of the optics of infrastructure projects.

prawnsambo

badtoro wrote: »

Enzokk - from what I see, farmers over there are salivating at the prospect of no deal. Right or wrong they seem to believe fortress Britain will be fed by they and they alone. That competitive foreign products will be tarriffed off the shelves, a weak pound will work in their favour to export, regulations will be non existent. They seem particularly happy at the notion of ridding themselves of Irish beef & dairy, and fcuking with other Irish agricultural products that may use Britain as a land bridge to Europe.

This is true. They are completely nuts. British farming cannot supply the UK market as it stands. Which means that there will be imports. However the Tories are talking up zero tariffs and lower standards which will hit the farming industry hard. The WTO people have been running projections on how long the British agri-food sector will last post-hardbrexit and can't model anything above two years. With a zero tariff, nobody will be in a rush to do trade deals. Why would you?

LeinsterDub

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Never! Never! Never! As Paisley used to say:

https://twitter.com/DUPleader/status/1047177009040908288

No border in the Irish sea except for the argi border, the designate origins border, the abortion border and the same sex marriage border and didn't they want a tax border too?

Ps remove mobile from the link for it to render