Brexit discussion thread IV

An Ciarraioch

One of the most worrying stats in today's Irish Times - 80% of new PSNI recruits are of a Protestant background, which can only exacerbate social divisions.

Capt'n Midnight

20silkcut wrote: »

Obviously they are different but remember Hong Kong was a British creation . Free trade economists always glorified the Hong Kong model which no doubt empowered the British overlords in their own heads in the background.

It should be remembered that the legal and political situation in Hong Kong is different to the mainland China because a backstop was negotiated that allowed it to be.

An Ciarraioch

Error message responsible for the triplicate post.

Hurrache

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Error message responsible for the triplicate post.

You can delete them.

Spook_ie

Anthracite wrote: »

This particular bit - I can't any evidence for.

Any member of Parliament can be PM, regardless of religion, birthright etc. Shock horror though you can't be President of Ireland unless a grandparent was Irish


https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/magazine-35257609

Capt'n Midnight

Akrasia wrote: »

May's policies will let still let plenty of Pakistani immigrants in, just not as many French, German, Spanish, Italian etc

To compensate from a reduction in immigration from Europe, they'll have to allow additional visas to immigrants from outside of Europe.

In other words, in the name of protecting 'British jobs' and 'British wages' and 'British culture', they're swapping immigrant labour from high income, high education, mostly christian or secular neighbouring countries, with immigrant labour from low income, theocratic countries half way across the world.

Ignoring the rights and wrongs,

The EU immigrants are more likely to go home.

This isn't what a lot of the xenophobes signed up for.

May has clearly stated that new arrival EU citizens won't get special treatment. How does that help the UK citizens on the continent ?

RobAMerc

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

In other news, Japan's ambassador to the UK, Koji Tsuruoka has warned that it will not be feasible for Japanese companies to continue to operate in the UK unless it can secure frictionless trade with the EU:

Why are we not banging on the doors of these guys offering to build a colossal manufacturing plant along the Rosslare - Limerick junction train line ( might no longer exist but cant be that fooked ) and a new super ferry to mainland Europe ?

Surely a small investment to get us back manufacturing stuff.

A Dub in Glasgo

Spook_ie wrote: »

Any member of Parliament can be PM, regardless of religion, birthright etc. Shock horror though you can't be President of Ireland unless a grandparent was Irish


https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/magazine-35257609

It is inconcievable that the UK Parliament will allow any MP representing a non-English constituency to be PM given what they have voted in on English Votes for English Laws ie making the UK Parliament effectively the English Parliament

Capt'n Midnight

J Mysterio wrote: »

May declares 'austerity is over'.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservative-conference-live-updates-theresa-may-speech-brexit-boris-johnson-chequers-tory-a8566021.html

Beyond laughable.

Tax take is down by €500m a week,

it's so bad Tories are talking about increasing taxes to pay for the NHS something traditionally against their religion.

Capt'n Midnight

Spook_ie wrote: »

Any member of Parliament can be PM, regardless of religion, birthright etc. Shock horror though you can't be President of Ireland unless a grandparent was Irish


https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/magazine-35257609

You cant be head of state in the UK unless your grandparent was ... German :pac:

UK and Irish citizens can vote in each other's elections for government based on where you currently live.
But can't vote for the other countries head of state.


On a side note the only two positions in the catholic church a lay person can step into are deacon and "pope" = Bishop of Rome etc ( QI had a nice bit about how the pope isn't a catholic BTW)

road_high

Where do Irish citizens stand re immigration? Lots of “UK citizens” in the North would have only Irish citizenship so how would that work in the U.K.- surely they can’t exclude their own citizens and by default us?

Capt'n Midnight

RobAMerc wrote: »

Why are we not banging on the doors of these guys offering to build a colossal manufacturing plant along the Rosslare - Limerick junction train line ( might no longer exist but cant be that fooked ) and a new super ferry to mainland Europe ?

Surely a small investment to get us back manufacturing stuff.

The EU signed a Free Trade Agreement with Japan. So no 10% tariffs in the future. So a lot less incentive to build a new factory in the EU.

Like I said elsewhere for something similar to the cost of a bridge to the UK you could link Japan to Russia. 127 million people on one side, 4.6 billion on the other. And railways are faster than ships so Japanese factories could deliver new orders faster.


Yes we have super new ferries to Europe. The ones on the Zeebrugge route have 8Km of vehicle lanes (5 miles in old money). There's also new ferries on other routes, and new routes like Cork-Spain.

And there's these
The World's largest pure car and truck carrier (PCTC) vessel, Höegh Target, with a 14 deck capacity for 8,500 car equivalent units, made another call to Dublin Port today

judeboy101

Spook_ie wrote: »

Any member of Parliament can be PM, regardless of religion, birthright etc. Shock horror though you can't be President of Ireland unless a grandparent was Irish


https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/magazine-35257609

Not true, there are particular rules preventing Catholics mainly to do with pm responsible for CoE appointments. Monarch can't do it due to separation of powers and pm can't delegate it due to pm being, well, pm . Nothing preventing Muslims but i do believe d'israeli had to convert to CoE to get the job and Blair had to wait til he stepped down to covert to catholic. You can't be head of state or pm if you are RC.

First Up

RobAMerc wrote:

Why are we not banging on the doors of these guys offering to build a colossal manufacturing plant along the Rosslare - Limerick junction train line ( might no longer exist but cant be that fooked ) and a new super ferry to mainland Europe ?

Surely a small investment to get us back manufacturing stuff.

You'd need an awful lot more than that to make Ireland a competitive base for the motor or any industry depending on hundreds of second and third tier suppliers located elsewhere.

Professor Moriarty

road_high wrote: »

Where do Irish citizens stand re immigration? Lots of “UK citizens” in the North would have only Irish citizenship so how would that work in the U.K.- surely they can’t exclude their own citizens and by default us?

Both governments have said that the common Travel Area will remain in place.

prawnsambo

First Up wrote: »

You'd need an awful lot more than that to make Ireland a competitive base for the motor or any industry depending on hundreds of second and third tier suppliers located elsewhere.

Yeah. Logistically we'd make no sense. The UK has the chunnel which means that a collection in Paris at 5pm could be in London the next morning at 9am. We just can't do that. And if we could, it would be a lot more expensive.

FreudianSlippers

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Both governments have said that the common Travel Area will remain in place.

Agreed, but at this stage if we're at the "renegotiate the GFA" stage, all bets are surely off; the UK will seemingly do (or at least give the impression that the will do) anything to get a deal that suits them.

Spook_ie

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

It is inconcievable that the UK Parliament will allow any MP representing a non-English constituency to be PM given what they have voted in on English Votes for English Laws ie making the UK Parliament effectively the English Parliament

The numbers may be stacked against any other outsiders except maybe Scottish Labour or Scottish Conservatives but none the less if they had the numbers they could be PM

Imreoir2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

In other news, Japan's ambassador to the UK, Koji Tsuruoka has warned that it will not be feasible for Japanese companies to continue to operate in the UK unless it can secure frictionless trade with the EU:



It makes perfect sense when you consider how heavily reliant these firms are on JIT manufacturing twinned with how little progress has been achieved by the Conservatives in the negotiations. The article goes on to explain that Margaret Thatcher promoted the UK as a gateway to Europe in order to attract investment. It's a strategy which worked but the modern incarnation of the party is likely to undo it.

It's all obvious, those companies are in the UK because the UK is a gateway to the EU market. With the UK out of the EU, and a new trade deal between the EU and Japan, why would those companies stay in the UK? For the nice weather? The stable fúck pro-business government?

LuckyLloyd

Econ__ wrote: »

There won't be a 'no deal'.

Raab confirmed that if the EU didn't cooperate in that scenario, no deal would be 'intolerable'.

The EU27 + the Commission know this, which is why they will cooperate with one another to ensure that each of them does not make plans to strike mini bilateral deals with the UK in order to mitigate the worst effects of a no deal scenario.

This is clearly the Commission's strategy (see airline industry criticising their 'block' on aviation talks, member state ambassadors banned from attending no deal briefings in London etc.)

As the clock ticks and once it becomes clear to the UK that there will be no 'mini deals' to mitigate the worst effects of no deal - they will know they could not survive it for long and would end up humiliatingly returning to the negotiating table within a week.

Many in the UK don't know this yet (the Westminster bubble is a resilient echo chamber) but there will come a point when reality bites. And at that point they will not contemplate leaving the EU without a deal.

I read this post and I see the logic in it. It makes sense to my view of politics and post WWII History. Where ultimately the pragmatic people in the room ultimately prevail and we can hammer out solutions at the dying moment from the Cuba Missile Crisis to the Oslo Agreement to the GFA.

"‘I want to say - and this is very important - that we lucked out . It was luck that saved us from nuclear war. We came this close to a nuclear war. Rational individuals - Kennedy was rational, Khrushchev was rational, Castro was rational - rational individuals came that close to total destruction of their societies. And this danger exists today." - Robert McNamara

Barnier, Tusk, Macron, Merkel et al are most certainly rational. There are politicians in the UK who are extremely rational. May is arguably quite rational - you just need to understand that her objectives are narrow selfish and short term. But she's not illogical or unreasonable. She understands what isn't achievable, she also understands that coming clean is the end of her political career.

I don't see us getting over the line this time. We have a perfect storm within British society and forces pushing and pulling the EU that have robbed it of its ability to be flexible. I think this thing - terrible as it will be for poor working class people in the UK - is going to happen. It almost has to happen for pragmatic people to come back to the fore with the ability to save themselves once again.

BonnieSituation

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

It is inconcievable that the UK Parliament will allow any MP representing a non-English constituency to be PM given what they have voted in on English Votes for English Laws ie making the UK Parliament effectively the English Parliament

Do you mean "these days"?

Gordon Brown had no such problems.

Bigus

RobAMerc wrote: »

Why are we not banging on the doors of these guys offering to build a colossal manufacturing plant along the Rosslare - Limerick junction train line ( might no longer exist but cant be that fooked ) and a new super ferry to mainland Europe ?

Surely a small investment to get us back manufacturing stuff.

We dont want that post industrial revolution **** pollution our isle and we don't have the unskilled masses to man it, so we're into bio pharma and future proof industries that require highly paid degree jobs , and rightly so .

Peregrinus

flutered wrote: »

which ties in with corbyns 60's view for britan and moggs victorian view, are there 10 politicians in the uk with a view for the future

Please God tell me you're not talking about the 10 DUP MPs!

Peregrinus

Spook_ie wrote: »

Any member of Parliament can be PM, regardless of religion, birthright etc. Shock horror though you can't be President of Ireland unless a grandparent was Irish

Balls.

"Every citizen who has reached his thirty-fifth year of age is eligible for election to the office of President."

Naturalised citizens are exactly as eligible as citizens by birth or descent.

Peregrinus

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

It is inconcievable that the UK Parliament will allow any MP representing a non-English constituency to be PM given what they have voted in on English Votes for English Laws ie making the UK Parliament effectively the English Parliament

Cough!Gordon BrownCough!

Peregrinus

road_high wrote: »

Where do Irish citizens stand re immigration? Lots of “UK citizens” in the North would have only Irish citizenship so how would that work in the U.K.- surely they can’t exclude their own citizens and by default us?

Anyone born in Northern Ireland is a British Citizen from birth (and is also entitled to Irish citizenship).

fash

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

road_high wrote: »

Where do Irish citizens stand re immigration? Lots of “UK citizens” in the North would have only Irish citizenship so how would that work in the U.K.- surely they can’t exclude their own citizens and by default us?

Both governments have said that the common Travel Area will remain in place.

How will that stand with the EU position being:
" “We will never accept discrimination based on skills and on nationality.”
That is literally discrimination based on nationality.

Peregrinus

fash wrote: »

How will that stand with the EU position being:
" “We will never accept discrimination based on skills and on nationality.”
That is literally discrimination based on nationality.

The EU is fine with the Common Travel Area, and is keen for it to continue, so long as the UK accepts that it cannot use the CTA to put pressure on Ireland to limit rights of entry of other EU nationals into Ireland. And the UK does accept this. It was all dealt with in the Joint Report last December (para 54), and as far as I can see there is still complete agreement on the point. There are no voices on either side calling for the Common Travel Area to be limited or abolished.

It should be noted that the relatively privileged position which Irish citizens enjoy in the UK does not depend solely, or even mainly, on the Common Travel Area, but rather on the provision of the UK's Ireland Act 1949, under which the Republic of Ireland is not treated as a "foreign country" for purposes of British law and, therefore, Irish citizens are not treated as foreigners. There is no Brexit-related proposal for this to be changed.

flatty

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/03/theresa-may-tory-conference-boris-johnson-marina-hyde

I know mods don't like link dumps, but this is a lovely bit of writing.

Leroy42

What are peoples opinions of the BBC journalists Laura Kuenssberg?

I find a lot of her 'political' stuff to be little more than window dressing. For example, her article yesterday on BBC about May's speech spent more time telling us that she danced, joked and didn't cough and that therefore she was back.

It didn't deal with the fact that Chequers wasn't mentioned, that she had promised to end austerity without any actual plan, she had just admitted that she had failed in the last two years to tackle housing despite it being a main plank of her leadership. That overall, the Tory conference offered nothing to prospective voters save for we aren't labour and we need to stick together.

Not for the first time, I was left feeling that she is more a social journalist, more interested in the goings on within politics, than the politics themselves.