Brexit discussion thread IV

Leroy42

One thing that strikes my at every interview, and TM had it in her speech yesterday, they continually go on about the great future the UK will have with a good deal with the EU.

Why does the interviewer not say that surely that rules out a no deal. Surely even the lowest deal is better than no deal at all. But they just let them spout this line about standing up to the EU, without ever asking them what the actual implications of a no deal would be, what would be the cost and how can they justify that cost.

The closest they come is they ask them do they believe the forecasts and they simply say no. According to JRM a no deal would have little to no impact. So at least, I mean he's wrong, but on that basis then it makes sense to hold out as they really is nothing to lose.

But even TM accepts that a no deal would lead to significant problems, the best she could offer was that somehow, someone somewhere would work hard enough or be smart enough to eventually make everything ok.

Harika

Leroy42 wrote: »

What are peoples opinions of the BBC journalists Laura Kuenssberg?

I find a lot of her 'political' stuff to be little more than window dressing. For example, her article yesterday on BBC about May's speech spent more time telling us that she danced, joked and didn't cough and that therefore she was back.

I like her coverage but yesterday she got rightfully called out for tweet yesterday of TM entry

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1047440564705275910

TBH that would have been fine for a CEO of a company that just got called out for dancing whacky and then moves on to promote the good results of this quarter. Instead TM boogies in like there is not the biggest event for Britain in a generation happening soon.

flatty

Leroy42 wrote: »

What are peoples opinions of the BBC journalists Laura Kuenssberg?

I find a lot of her 'political' stuff to be little more than window dressing. For example, her article yesterday on BBC about May's speech spent more time telling us that she danced, joked and didn't cough and that therefore she was back.

It didn't deal with the fact that Chequers wasn't mentioned, that she had promised to end austerity without any actual plan, she had just admitted that she had failed in the last two years to tackle housing despite it being a main plank of her leadership. That overall, the Tory conference offered nothing to prospective voters save for we aren't labour and we need to stick together.

Not for the first time, I was left feeling that she is more a social journalist, more interested in the goings on within politics, than the politics themselves.

She refuses to give an opinion on anything bar the fluff. She's a reasonable presenter, but not a journalist. She might as well be reading an autocue on sky sports. The previous incumbents were better. I suspect she does what she's told.

Zubeneschamali

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

May is arguably quite rational - you just need to understand that her objectives are narrow selfish and short term.

Yes, we have been seeing this since she became PM. But, and it is a big but, a no-deal chaotic brexit would end her career just as surely as a surrender to the EU, and the consequences for the UK would be much, much worse.

In the end, May will face the choice of:

1) Surrender to the EU and face an attack from the brexiteers
2) No-deal chaotic brexit and face angry villagers with pitchforks and torches

She can only kick the can down the road so far - eventually she must make a hard choice.

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, we have been seeing this since she became PM. But, and it is a big but, a no-deal chaotic brexit would end her career just as surely as a surrender to the EU, and the consequences for the UK would be much, much worse.

In the end, May will face the choice of:

1) Surrender to the EU and face an attack from the brexiteers
2) No-deal chaotic brexit and face angry villagers with pitchforks and torches

She can only kick the can down the road so far - eventually she must make a hard choice.

To be fair, she has done a pretty impressive job so far of kicking the can down the road. he probably believes, with some justification, that she can continue to do so.

EdgeCase

There's a lot of very poor journalism in the UK at the moment. I think you're seeing a mixture of the BBC having lost its teeth due to the various scandals and also just a big element of group think.

It's reminding me of a large aspect of the Irish media before the 2008 crash. There were people calling it out, and RTE primetime was one of those, but the majority of media commentators were on the happy train and supporting the notion of a soft landing for the economy.

I think that's exactly what you're seeing in the UK. Journalists aren't focusing on the big picture. They're looking at the scandals and gossip as the Tories and labour both have huge internal fights going on and the view that "it'll be alright on the night" seems to be dominant.

There's a big risk of an economic crash and a very unprepared population who've bought into the narrative that it's all going to be fine.

I think should that happen and should there be serious problem, you'll see serious social unrest just as you did with the poll tax riots and similarly in the 70s and 80s.

The current era of relatively calm politics has never really been the norm in the UK. It's really only existed since the end of the Thatcher era. I think you're headed for a bumpy return to the 20th century.

Angry bird

It seems there may be movement in Brussels today with the Irish government reportedly backing a CU offer to the UK thereby dealing with a UK wide regulatory regime and largely dealing with the border.
https://www.ft.com/content/a4770b92-c721-11e8-ba8f-ee390057b8c9

Also in the Irish Times.

This could be it despite the Tories previously rejecting it but gives them the FOM restriction.

kowtow

Reuters are also making positive noises quoting a source from the EU saying "British moves on border are likely to make compromise possible"...

kunst nugget

flatty wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/03/theresa-may-tory-conference-boris-johnson-marina-hyde

I know mods don't like link dumps, but this is a lovely bit of writing.

Cabbage Patch Draco Malfoy is a great description of Boris.

VinLieger

kowtow wrote: »

Reuters are also making positive noises quoting a source from the EU saying "British moves on border are likely to make compromise possible"...

Until Arlene takes a look and it likely doesn't agree with her "blood red line"

Inquitus

How she is going to square this circle I don't know:

DUP would prefer no deal Brexit to 'border down Irish Sea', says Dodds
Last night Nigel Dodds, the DUP’s deputy leader, was interviewed on ITV’s Peston. He said the DUP would rather have a no deal Brexit than agree to any plan that could involve “a border down the Irish Sea”. He told the programme:

"No deal is better than a bad deal. A catastrophic deal for us would be a border down the Irish Sea, which over a period of time could lead to a continuing divergence between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. That’s catastrophic in economic terms for our economy, never mind the constitutional and political implications of all of that."

The DUP’s stance on this is highly significant because there is increasing speculation that the new plan for the Irish backstop that the UK government is due to announce (the fallback plan to ensure no hard border in Ireland after Brexit, if the main Brexit deal does not achieve this), will involve Northern Ireland staying in closer regulatory alignment to the EU than Britain, potentially meaning goods going from Britain to Northern Ireland have to undergo regulatory checks. David Lidington, the Cabinet Office minister, refused to deny this yesterday.

Akrasia

VinLieger wrote: »

Until Arlene takes a look and it likely doesn't agree with her "blood red line"

Yep. Round and round the merry-go-round

What are the chances that TM will have actually consulted with the DUP before she goes and publishes these proposals? (again)

She's making the same mistakes over and over again. Kicking the can down the road is fine if the road is infinitely long, but she's not on a road, she's in a canoe heading for a waterfall, and there comes a time when you need to either commit to going over the edge, or make your way to the safety of the river bank

TM seems to have only two options for brexit, No deal, or General Election hoping that the EU 27 will allow them the time to hold the election, form a government and come up with realistic proposals (this would almost certainly require an extension to A50

The EU allowing an extension is by no means guaranteed btw. This uncertainty is costing EU businesses money. It's not just UK companies who need to spend money on contingency planning, there are EU firms who are now firmly in the realm of being unable to trade as normal beyond 30/03/19 until they have some kind of certainty on what the customs and regulatory regime is going to be.

If there is even one EU 27 country who feels the UK are not serious about coming to an agreement, they might deny an extension and accept the 'certainty' of a UK crash out rather than the uncertainty of hoping that they will come to the table with a workable solution

kowtow

If it were an all UK CU (Turkey+?) then that wouldn't cross any DUP red lines surely?

cantwbr1

kowtow wrote: »

If it were an all UK CU (Turkey+?) then that wouldn't cross any DUP red lines surely?

My understanding is that this would require a hard border

_Puma_

kowtow wrote: »

If it were an all UK CU (Turkey+?) then that wouldn't cross any DUP red lines surely?

The Blood Red lines? This will be shot down immediately, in fact it already had been a few moths ago. I think our government have just took the Tory bate, hook line and sinker. They have no intention of getting any "deal" though parliament with their current government. This appears to now be stalling tactics, divide and conquer, face off the cliff and either jump or extend article 50.

We need to remember who our friends are, and it is not the DUP/Tory government. Long term any border in NI will not be tolerated economically, nevermind with the past troubles. The UK in a half in half out situation could be extremely damaging for our economy and the EU as a whole.

Best case i think at this stage for Ireland and the EU, is Article 50 extension, new UK government and back to the negotiation table.
Next worst, in the long term anyway, is no deal
The UK half in, half out is worst short term and long term economically with as far as I can see it a hard border erected in NI regardless.

prawnsambo

_Puma_ wrote: »

The Blood Red lines? This will be shot down immediately, in fact it already had been a few moths ago. I think our government have just took the Tory bate, hook line and sinker. They have no intention of getting any "deal" though parliament with their current government. This appears to now be stalling tactics, divide and conquer, face off the cliff and either jump or extend article 50.

We need to remember who our friends are, and it is not the DUP/Tory government. Long term any border in NI will not be tolerated economically, nevermind with the past troubles. The UK in a half in half out situation could be extremely damaging for our economy and the EU as a whole.

Best case i think at this stage for Ireland and the EU, is Article 50 extension, new UK government and back to the negotiation table.
Next worst, in the long term anyway, is no deal
The UK half in, half out is worst short term and long term economically with as far as I can see it a hard border erected in NI regardless.

There will be no Article 50 extension. Not with the brinkmanship being played by the Tories. All an extension will do is encourage them to keep playing the same game until another deadline is reached. Nobody seems to have any faith that the leopard will change its spots.

kowtow

cantwbr1 wrote: »

My understanding is that this would require a hard border

Even if it covered the whole of the UK?

Leroy42

So, from my initial, and thus could be wrong, understanding, the UK is going to get its CU for goods, keep services outside, and not have FoM.

That is a pretty good win for the UK, and basically what that asked for with Cameron but were turned down on the basis that the EU had rules.

This will, IMO, place in the UK is a significantly better position in terms of competition and thus have serious long terms effects on Ireland.

prawnsambo

kowtow wrote: »

Even if it covered the whole of the UK?

Turkey still has customs posts. There are no tariffs or duties payable at the border, but there still are checks.

farmchoice

farmchoice

the above is what they will get depending on how they will bend with some slight possible adjustments.

kowtow

Leroy42 wrote: »

So, from my initial, and thus could be wrong, understanding, the UK is going to get its CU for goods, keep services outside, and not have FoM.

That is a pretty good win for the UK, and basically what that asked for with Cameron but were turned down on the basis that the EU had rules.

This will, IMO, place in the UK is a significantly better position in terms of competition and thus have serious long terms effects on Ireland.

If that is the case, and that is also my understanding, then presumably the big remaining issue will be the precise incarnation of whatever ECJ / adjudication mechanism is put in place to govern goods.

I think on balance this would be a good deal for the UK, and also for us in Ireland in the near term. Unlike others, and having spent a fair chunk of my life in the City, I never really worried about the impact on the City of London and the services economy.

I think there are some interesting opportunities for the UK in the area where goods & services crossover. They may be able to make more of this than the potential for diverging on goods alone in agreements with countries outside the EU.

Can you elaborate more on your view of the implications for Ireland?

Leroy42

It is allowing the UK to have the vast majority of benefits of the EU without any of the costs, and that then will impact on Ireland's ability to compete with the UK for FDI and exports.

As has been raised numerous times, many goods nowadays carry a huge amount of services within it, in many cases the good is simply the doorway to the service business.

If the UK can operate outside the services rules, and remember that the EU wanted to bring a financial services tax in recently and thus may do so again, this puts the UK at a distinct advantage.

It strikes me as the EU losing its nerve and very much what the UK had planned for the whole time. I cannot see any negative to this deal to the UK. It will be claimed as a win-win, but the UK are leaving, why should they win at all?

keane2097

Leroy42 wrote: »

So, from my initial, and thus could be wrong, understanding, the UK is going to get its CU for goods, keep services outside, and not have FoM.

That is a pretty good win for the UK, and basically what that asked for with Cameron but were turned down on the basis that the EU had rules.

This will, IMO, place in the UK is a significantly better position in terms of competition and thus have serious long terms effects on Ireland.

Veto that ****. How could that ever get through?

kowtow

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is allowing the UK to have the vast majority of benefits of the EU without any of the costs, and that then will impact on Ireland's ability to compete with the UK for FDI and exports.

As has been raised numerous times, many goods nowadays carry a huge amount of services within it, in many cases the good is simply the doorway to the service business.

If the UK can operate outside the services rules, and remember that the EU wanted to bring a financial services tax in recently and thus may do so again, this puts the UK at a distinct advantage.

It strikes me as the EU losing its nerve and very much what the UK had planned for the whole time. I cannot see any negative to this deal to the UK. It will be claimed as a win-win, but the UK are leaving, why should they win at all?

The potential for a Tobin tax was one of the many reasons that the City of London was never going to collapse into the arms of Frankfurt or Paris whatever happened, simply too much damage to liquidity in today's trading environment - but that picture has not been changed much by Brexit either way?

I can see interesting times ahead with so many goods inherently dependent on a technological, licenced, service element for their operational life. Is it possible that the UK may have laid the ground work to become an extremely effective and competitive technological manufacturing hub with an open back door into the European market?

prawnsambo

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is allowing the UK to have the vast majority of benefits of the EU without any of the costs, and that then will impact on Ireland's ability to compete with the UK for FDI and exports.

As has been raised numerous times, many goods nowadays carry a huge amount of services within it, in many cases the good is simply the doorway to the service business.

If the UK can operate outside the services rules, and remember that the EU wanted to bring a financial services tax in recently and thus may do so again, this puts the UK at a distinct advantage.

It strikes me as the EU losing its nerve and very much what the UK had planned for the whole time. I cannot see any negative to this deal to the UK. It will be claimed as a win-win, but the UK are leaving, why should they win at all?

As I said above, Turkey has customs posts on its border with Bulgaria. It also has to negotiate permits for truck drivers with each of the EU states that their trucks will go through. There are never enough of these and this can lead to massive costs.

kowtow

prawnsambo wrote: »

As I said above, Turkey has customs posts on its border with Bulgaria. It also has to negotiate permits for truck drivers with each of the EU states that their trucks will go through. There are never enough of these and this can lead to massive costs.

That may be so (and is it in part due to the movement of people which doesn't apply in Ireland?) but if reports are true and the EU are supporting this as a compromise which allows the Irish border to remain open then presumably any customs checks will be able to pass as "frictionless"...

Leroy42

But my understanding is that this deal, and I stress again that this is just my reading of the reports and this could be wrong, is that the UK would not be getting a deal like Turkey, but a frictionless deal, pretty close to what they currently have.

They would, though, be free from FoM and I would wager that they would also be free of many of the non product specific regulations such as working time, holidays, H&S etc etc.

I can see the immediate positive for the EU, but seems to be that the UK are getting pretty much everything they wanted whilst the EU are giving in on their core principles.

LeinsterDub

No deal is better than a bad deal. A catastrophic deal for us would be a border down the Irish Sea, which over a period of time could lead to a continuing divergence between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. That’s catastrophic in economic terms for our economy, never mind the constitutional and political implications of all of that

says Nigel Dodds

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/oct/04/no-deal-brexit-could-cause-a-recession-says-rbs-boss-politics-live?page=with:block-5bb5d07de4b0b8830be69013#block-5bb5d07de4b0b8830be69013


There has been no movement from any of the major players since last December. May has no means to avoid border she doesn't have enough support from any grouping . We are heading to a no deals , it's seems unavoidable at this stage.

prawnsambo

Leroy42 wrote: »

But my understanding is that this deal, and I stress again that this is just my reading of the reports and this could be wrong, is that the UK would not be getting a deal like Turkey, but a frictionless deal, pretty close to what they currently have.

They would, though, be free from FoM and I would wager that they would also be free of many of the non product specific regulations such as working time, holidays, H&S etc etc.

I can see the immediate positive for the EU, but seems to be that the UK are getting pretty much everything they wanted whilst the EU are giving in on their core principles.

I'm not sure how that's possible. You can't eliminate FoM of people and still have FoM of goods. The whole JIT business depends on FoM of people. And services.

Edit: Just to be clear, I'm saying that this would not be frictionless. There are also other issues with eliminating border checks. Goods from non-EU countries that would normally attract a tariff entering the EU could be effectively 'smuggled' in under the guise of being of British origin.