Brexit discussion thread IV

Enzokk

kowtow wrote: »

None of that lays out an inevitable path to an election.

Surely the ERG tactic would be to vote down a deal (with Labour's help) and simply allow a hard Brexit to take place by default?. Supporting Labour and triggering a general election is hardly going to get them where they want to go?

What's more, the timing of legislation to support a Brexit deal is presumably somewhat within the control of the government.

Yes, that is why the heading of the article is how an election can happen by accident. There is no way that the Conservatives will vote for another election because they are most likely to lose their status as the largest party in the HoC.

So the only way it would happen is if Labour votes against the plan presented by May. So that is why Labour will vote against her plan as you asked in a post before.

For it to happen though you would need Conservatives to vote against the plan. The only plan I could see going through is a hard Brexit because the Tory rebels may not want to start the process that could lead to a general election. While they talk about avoiding a hard Brexit they probably prioritize party over country.

So the most likely options for me at the moment is no-deal Brexit because as you posted May cannot get a soft deal past the ERG and all they need to do is ensure a deal isn't reached, or a general election as May will not want to be known as the Prime Minister that brought the country to its knees.

I don't see a deal where the EU compromises, because they have not compromised once since article 50 was triggered. Why would they start now?

kowtow

Enzokk wrote: »

Yes, that is why the heading of the article is how an election can happen by accident. There is no way that the Conservatives will vote for another election because they are most likely to lose their status as the largest party in the HoC.

So the only way it would happen is if Labour votes against the plan presented by May. So that is why Labour will vote against her plan as you asked in a post before.

For it to happen though you would need Conservatives to vote against the plan. The only plan I could see going through is a hard Brexit because the Tory rebels may not want to start the process that could lead to a general election. While they talk about avoiding a hard Brexit they probably prioritize party over country.

So the most likely options for me at the moment is no-deal Brexit because as you posted May cannot get a soft deal past the ERG and all they need to do is ensure a deal isn't reached, or a general election as May will not want to be known as the Prime Minister that brought the country to its knees.

I don't see a deal where the EU compromises, because they have not compromised once since article 50 was triggered. Why would they start now?

I think that is a fair assessment.

Will the EU compromise? It depends what compromise is.

Would it really kill the EU to accept an all UK customs union backstop for the time being, while Canada +++ with a permanent solution to the NI border was being rolled out over many years, quietly, when this thread and all those people who care about winning and losing have gone quiet? All the while collecting payments from London?

That sounds to me like the kind of compromise the EU likes to make, and (as I said above) I can just about see how Parliament would vote for it, just about.

Everybody recognizes the risk - probability even - of a no deal but this is a conversation about negotiations, and the very fact that negotiations are taking place has to assume some chance, no matter how remote, of a deal of some shape or colour.

swampgas

kowtow wrote: »

Would it really kill the EU to accept an all UK customs union backstop for the time being, while Canada +++ with a permanent solution to the NI border was being rolled out over many years, quietly, when this thread and all those people who care about winning and losing have gone quiet? All the while collecting payments from London?

Well, doesn't that impact on the relationship the EU has with every other country it deals with? What's the point of cutting the UK a deal that undermines the EU's relationships with the rest of the world?

This a critical test for the EU: are they standing behind the 4 freedoms or will they bend if pushed hard enough? Give way now and dangerous precedent has been set.

kowtow

swampgas wrote: »

Well, doesn't that impact on the relationship the EU has with every other country it deals with? What's the point of cutting the UK a deal that undermines the EU's relationships with the rest of the world?

This a critical test for the EU: are they standing behind the 4 freedoms or will they bend if pushed hard enough? Give way now and dangerous precedent has been set.

The UK is a member of the customs union today. Remaining in it for a few more years whilst sorting some fudge out for NI which is compatible with Canada +++ hardly undermines EU relationships with the rest of the world?

Given the unique nature of the UK, EU, NI, Irish relationship I can't see it as a precedent that many others will be able to draw on.

briany

Enzokk wrote: »

Yes, that is why the heading of the article is how an election can happen by accident. There is no way that the Conservatives will vote for another election because they are most likely to lose their status as the largest party in the HoC.

And if the Conservatives stay as they are, they risk making themselves un-electable for a generation.

Leroy42

The therein lies the key phrase. Staying in. The UK want to stay in the bits they like, and think about the things they don't.

How is that feasible to the other countries. It would create anarchy.

So the UK really are faced with a choice. The EU has already accepted the basis for a transition period, during which nothing changes except that the UK can start to work on trade deals and they lose their rights to vote in the elections. Seems a good trade off.

But the UK don't want that. They want to leave, but still have access, and then after some time later maybe leave or not.

It is hardly the EU's fault that the UK has self imposed a timeline on themselves. So they are the ones with the pressure. The EU would be happy enough to keep everything as it is for the time being, but the UK have turned that down.

Econ__

lawred2 wrote: »

Sure then they have near zero leverage over the Tory Government

Correct, and contrary to popular belief.

ancapailldorcha

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/nissan-and-rbs-warn-against-no-deal-brexit-37386671.html



I wonder what does Boris F^&k Business Johnson has to say about the above companies.

Johnson simply does not care. He's been resembling Donald Trump more and more lately with his outlandish comments and his wealthy man of the people routine. I think many people indulged it for a while because he was thought of as a bit of a character and called Trump out on it not long before election though he quickly changed his tune after Trump was elected. Trump had said he wouldn't go to London because of terrorism and radicalisation and this was Johnson's response:



Had he backed Remain, I'm convinced he would be the most beloved politician in the country. Conservatives would be clamouring for him to be PM while those on the left would find him harder to criticise. Unfortunately, he seems to be a prisoner of his own base instincts like his serial womanizing, populism, laziness and venality.

kuro68k

prawnsambo wrote: »

Boris hasn't got the support.

I dunno, if he can force May out then there will be a leadership election and he has a decent chance. Who else is there? And who else would be mad enough to pick up that poison chalice?

This is his chance to go for a hard suicide brexit and then bluster his way through it, blaming everyone else in a poor imitation of Donald Trump. Get support from people who hate foreigners and who want to see him "stand up" to the EU. You know, the Little Englanders.

If he doesn't do it soon he might not get another chance. When brexit goes badly it will destroy the Tory party, keeping them out of government for at least a decade, maybe 15-20 years if Labour can get their act together,

cml387

One question (and it's rhetorical really) is: who is the more fanatical, the extreme Tory remainers or the extreme Tory Brexiteers.

On that basis, a no deal "accident" looks more likely.

Water John

Gina Miller certainly has the charisma.

briany

Just a related thought - you always get Brexiters going on about how Remainers should get on board and support Brexit now that the vote has been cast. I say that the Brexiters would not have gotten on board with remaining had the vote gone the other way. Especially as close as it was. It was hardly as if they were on board with remaining in the years leading up to 2016. I don't see why that would have changed.

Professor Moriarty

briany wrote: »

Just a related thought - you always get Brexiters going on about how Remainers should get on board and support Brexit now that the vote has been cast. I say that the Brexiters would not have gotten on board with remaining had the vote gone the other way. Especially as close as it was. It was hardly as if they were on board with remaining in the years leading up to 2016. I don't see why that would have changed.

That might be a valid suggestion from the Brexiters if they were able to state what they mean by 'Brexit'. Until then...

kowtow

kuro68k wrote: »

I dunno, if he can force May out then there will be a leadership election and he has a decent chance. Who else is there? And who else would be mad enough to pick up that poison chalice?

This is his chance to go for a hard suicide brexit and then bluster his way through it, blaming everyone else in a poor imitation of Donald Trump. Get support from people who hate foreigners and who want to see him "stand up" to the EU. You know, the Little Englanders.

If he doesn't do it soon he might not get another chance. When brexit goes badly it will destroy the Tory party, keeping them out of government for at least a decade, maybe 15-20 years if Labour can get their act together,

The maths just don't add up for Boris to my mind.

He might be popular with the grass roots but he has to make it to the ballot paper first and I just don't think he has the parliamentary support - doesn't he need nearly 160 Tory MP's to vote May out in the first instance?

And then there is the Tory tradition of never electing the leader who stabs the incumbent (the Heseltine rule..)

Whatever may happen after Brexit I don't think there is anyone too keen for May to move out of no. 10 just yet.

The ERG are, at least, fairly predictable in terms of what they will or wont support (although their actual numbers may change on the day). May and the whips know this perfectly well. This is a matter of principle for them which can't really be said of Labour.

The ERG have served a valuable purpose - they have tied her hands in negotiations so that she, like the EU, can plead that this is a matter of law. She can, if she is lucky, get her Parliamentary arithmetic to work for her in Brussels a little bit even if it is f**k all use to her in Westminster.

And - in the end, if she can string it out long enough, I think she'll go to Parliament at the last minute and she can and will rely on Labour being too careful to vote down the only deal on the table thereby ensuring a hard Brexit.

Econ__

kowtow wrote: »

The maths just don't add up for Boris to my mind.

He might be popular with the grass roots but he has to make it to the ballot paper first and I just don't think he has the parliamentary support - doesn't he need nearly 160 Tory MP's to vote May out in the first instance?

And then there is the Tory tradition of never electing the leader who stabs the incumbent (the Heseltine rule..)

Whatever may happen after Brexit I don't think there is anyone too keen for May to move out of no. 10 just yet.

The ERG are, at least, fairly predictable in terms of what they will or wont support (although their actual numbers may change on the day). May and the whips know this perfectly well. This is a matter of principle for them which can't really be said of Labour.

The ERG have served a valuable purpose - they have tied her hands in negotiations so that she, like the EU, can plead that this is a matter of law. She can, if she is lucky, get her Parliamentary arithmetic to work for her in Brussels a little bit even if it is f**k all use to her in Westminster.

And - in the end, if she can string it out long enough, I think she'll go to Parliament at the last minute and she can and will rely on Labour being too careful to vote down the only deal on the table thereby ensuring a hard Brexit.

A Conservative leadership election takes up to three months to complete from start to finish.

This is one of the main reasons why Brexiters didn't have the numbers to bring May down over the Chequers proposal in July - moderate Tory MPs know that:

1. There isn't enough time

2. They don't want a hard Brexiteer, of the headbanger variety, in Number 10 at this crucial time (and the Tory party members would select a headbanger, if one made it to the final two - which goes to the membership to decide)

Inquitus

Econ__ wrote: »

2. They don't want a hard Brexiteer, of the headbanger variety, in Number 10 at this crucial time (and the Tory party members would select a headbanger, if one made it to the final two - which goes to the membership to decide)

Guaranteed JRM or Bojo would get the job if they made it past the parliamentary selection.

kowtow

The one thing that could potentially upset the apple cart is actually the ECJ.

They have a ruling due - from the Scottish courts I think - which will clarify whether the Government can unilaterally revoke Article 50.

If power were handed back to Parliament to stop the clock then Corbyn might be able to find a way to turn it to his advantage, although a lot of other things would have to fall into place.

The other thing which is a bit of a risk to May is a deal falling into place too quickly and therefore coming before Parliament at any time before the 11th hour.

But once it's the last minute and once Corbyn runs the risk of being the man who crashed Britain out, Labour will abstain.

Inquitus

kowtow wrote: »

But once it's the last minute and once Corbyn runs the risk of being the man who crashed Britain out, Labour will abstain.

They won't abstain, they'll blame the Tories, who are in Government after all, for not being able to pass their own Policy, and hope to trigger a GE off the back of it. Party over Country by both sides, always!

Strazdas

cml387 wrote: »

One question (and it's rhetorical really) is: who is the more fanatical, the extreme Tory remainers or the extreme Tory Brexiteers.

On that basis, a no deal "accident" looks more likely.

How can someone in favour of simply retaining the status quo of the last 50 years be labelled an "extremist" or a "fanatic"?

Logic would suggest the extremists and fanatics are all on the other side.

Econ__

Inquitus wrote: »

Guaranteed JRM or Bojo would get the job if they made it past the parliamentary selection.

From everything I read and hear -

Boris doesn't have the numbers to get to the final two (even if May loses a vote of no confidence). There are active campaigns in the Tory parliamentary party to stop Boris getting it - one is called 'Operation Arse' (not joking).

JRM has even less of a chance - and he knows this himself. But he would be very influential in terms of who does become leader, because he can whip up the support of 60~ MPs to support a particular candidate.

The next Tory leader is likely to be Javid or Raab, whenever that may be (likely the Summer of 2019).

cml387

Strazdas wrote: »

How can someone in favour of simply retaining the status quo of the last 50 years be labelled an "extremist" or a "fanatic"?

Logic would suggest the extremists and fanatics are all on the other side.

If you live in the world of the Tory party, I should point out.

briany

Strazdas wrote: »

How can someone in favour of simply retaining the status quo of the last 50 years be labelled an "extremist" or a "fanatic"?

Logic would suggest the extremists and fanatics are all on the other side.

It's not a question of supporting the status quo. After all, you have the Kims of North Korea and their supporters. They support the status quo in that country but we'd still call them fanatics because of their level of devotion to their particular cause.

trellheim

Reuters reporting close to a deal


https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-deal/eu-negotiators-see-brexit-divorce-deal-very-close-sources-idUKKCN1MF0K9

Hurrache

A deal might be a word too less, a proposed deal more likely. Won't any proposed deal have to go through parliament?

Tropheus

Hurrache wrote: »

A deal might be a word too less, a proposed deal more likely. Won't any proposed deal have to go through parliament?

It will and the likelihood of it getting through is remote given the stance of the hard line Brexiters and Labour.

Strazdas

briany wrote: »

It's not a question of supporting the status quo. After all, you have the Kims of North Korea and their supporters. They support the status quo in that country but we'd still call them fanatics because of their level of devotion to their particular cause.

There's no evidence there was anything particularly wrong with the status quo. It was the right wing press and UKIP who invented this "fantasy" EU of a Soviet Gulag, a dictatorship run by bullies etc.

trellheim

Council parliament and all 28 states too

Leroy42

trellheim wrote: »

Council parliament and all 28 states too

If Barnier proposes it, it will be passed. They have stated that Barnier speaks for all of them, they can't then decide to act individually.

trellheim

You are correct up to a point, the deal needs ratifying by the 28 and euparl though

Akrasia

Leroy42 wrote: »

If Barnier proposes it, it will be passed. They have stated that Barnier speaks for all of them, they can't then decide to act individually.

Varadker didn't seem to be aware of this Canada+++ deal yesterday, never mind approving of it. If the proposal requires any kind of border between the Ireland and NI, Leo should veto it.