Brexit discussion thread IV

MrMusician18

Akrasia wrote: »

Varadker didn't seem to be aware of this Canada+++ deal yesterday, never mind approving of it. If the proposal requires any kind of border between the Ireland and NI, Leo should veto it.

Strange, since a Canada like deal has been in offer for almost 2 years.

Water John

It reads like UK staying in CU and SM until a solution to the border is found. The wording might be diff to help get it trough Parliament. Wouldn't see Labour oppose that. Meaning ERG and DUP can whistle. Any power they had evaporated.

charlie14

Akrasia wrote: »

Varadker didn't seem to be aware of this Canada+++ deal yesterday, never mind approving of it. If the proposal requires any kind of border between the Ireland and NI, Leo should veto it.

If it does require any kind of border between the Republic and NI then he will really be between the proverbial rock and hard place.
Veto it and the other member states will hardly be too pleased. Not veto it and has "bullet-proof" remarks make him look foolish.
This should have been sorted last December before talks were allowed to move to Phase 2 when we actually had the backing of the other member states on a veto.

MrMusician18

Water John wrote: »

It reads like UK staying in CU and SM until a solution to the border is found. The wording might be diff to help get it trough Parliament. Wouldn't see Labour oppose that. Meaning ERG and DUP can whistle. Any power they had evaporated.

If this is the case it throws an additional complexity into Irish unification - a United Ireland would see the end for the need for the backstop leaving the UK to do it's own thing.

Would it be in the interest of Ireland to accept unification knowing it could disrupt IRL - UK trade?

Water John

Iv'e no interest whatsoever in UI. Lets solve what's in front of us.

Enzokk

cml387 wrote: »

One question (and it's rhetorical really) is: who is the more fanatical, the extreme Tory remainers or the extreme Tory Brexiteers.

On that basis, a no deal "accident" looks more likely.

The way I see it, the moderate Tories will not bring the government down. The ideologues on the ERG will however.

Inquitus wrote: »

They won't abstain, they'll blame the Tories, who are in Government after all, for not being able to pass their own Policy, and hope to trigger a GE off the back of it. Party over Country by both sides, always!

It will depend on the deal I suppose. If the deal is close to the six tests I cannot see how they could oppose it. We will have to see what the deal is first to know who may or may not be against or for it.

Econ__ wrote: »

From everything I read and hear -

Boris doesn't have the numbers to get to the final two (even if May loses a vote of no confidence). There are active campaigns in the Tory parliamentary party to stop Boris getting it - one is called 'Operation Arse' (not joking).

JRM has even less of a chance - and he knows this himself. But he would be very influential in terms of who does become leader, because he can whip up the support of 60~ MPs to support a particular candidate.

The next Tory leader is likely to be Javid or Raab, whenever that may be (likely the Summer of 2019).

Well either of those will not be for a softer Brexit. Raab seems to follow a lot of hard Brexiteers on social media and Javid would happily deport his own father or not allow him in to the UK if he had his way.

Sajid Javid backs plans for stricter citizenship rules after Brexit

The government has announced stricter immigration and citizenship rules to come into place after Brexit, with Sajid Javid later telling the Guardian’s editor-in-chief Katharine Viner that he was unworried by the suggestion such rules would have prevented his own father entering the UK.

There is talk of the high skilled immigration salary requirement being increased from £30k p.a. to £50k p.a., but that would rule out most of the workers in the NHS. No more nurses, no more HCA, no more doctors as their salaries would fall below this threshold. My guess is there will be a huge fudge on immigration. There will be very strict rules but the kicker would be that certain industries will have exemptions. Those exemptions will mean immigration will stay high though as the UK needs immigration and EEA immigrants pay in £2300 or so per year to the finances rather than take anything out.

Water John wrote: »

It reads like UK staying in CU and SM until a solution to the border is found. The wording might be diff to help get it trough Parliament. Wouldn't see Labour oppose that. Meaning ERG and DUP can whistle. Any power they had evaporated.

I see a problem here and it is the DUP. They have repeatedly said they will not accept different regulations between them and the GB and from all stories it seems while the whole of the UK will stay in the customs union, only NI will be in the single market. That is different regulations and I expect a hissy fit to be thrown Theresa May's way over it.

Akrasia

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Strange, since a Canada like deal has been in offer for almost 2 years.

yes, but we were only happy to accept it if there was a guaranteed frictionless border, this involved NI remaining in the Single market, but this was rejected by the DUP and ERG

Akrasia

charlie14 wrote: »

If it does require any kind of border between the Republic and NI then he will really be between the proverbial rock and hard place.
Veto it and the other member states will hardly be too pleased. Not veto it and has "bullet-proof" remarks make him look foolish.
This should have been sorted last December before talks were allowed to move to Phase 2 when we actually had the backing of the other member states on a veto.

We only moved to stage 2 under the strict understanding that there would be no border. If the EU try to push ahead with a deal that will break up the GFA, then we are perfectly within our rights to object.

flutered

Econ__ wrote: »

Inquitus wrote: »

Guaranteed JRM or Bojo would get the job if they made it past the parliamentary selection.

From everything I read and hear -

Boris doesn't have the numbers to get to the final two (even if May loses a vote of no confidence). There are active campaigns in the Tory parliamentary party to stop Boris getting it - one is called 'Operation Arse' (not joking).

JRM has even less of a chance - and he knows this himself. But he would be very influential in terms of who does become leader, because he can whip up the support of 60~ MPs to support a particular candidate.

The next Tory leader is likely to be Javid or Raab, whenever that may be (likely the Summer of 2019).

i cannot see the right wing torys having the son of a pakistani immigrant  as pm, btw he could be a muslim therefore unable to hold a position in the church of england, perhaps i am wrong

charlie14

Akrasia wrote: »

We only moved to stage 2 under the strict understanding that there would be no border. If the EU try to push ahead with a deal that will break up the GFA, then we are perfectly within our rights to object.

If we are now talking about a Canada +++ deal which may include a border that would result in us having to use our veto, then that "bullet-proof" understanding of Varadkar`s that allowed movement to Stage 2 of talks was nothing more than us being sold a pup at the time imho.



Then we had the explicit backing of all our EU partners to halt any movement to Stage 2 of talks until we were satisfied on the border issue that would have resulted in little or no pressure or blow-back from said partners had we done so. If it comes down to us having to use our veto on the final draft as regards a border, I very much doubt the same would apply.

LeinsterDub

charlie14 wrote: »

If it does require any kind of border between the Republic and NI then he will really be between the proverbial rock and hard place.
Veto it and the other member states will hardly be too pleased. Not veto it and has "bullet-proof" remarks make him look foolish.
This should have been sorted last December before talks were allowed to move to Phase 2 when we actually had the backing of the other member states on a veto.

Perhaps I'm being naive but our EU partners knew what they were signing up to when they agreed to make Ireland's conditions their conditions. I can't see us being pushed under the bus

charlie14

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Perhaps I'm being naive but our EU partners knew what they were signing up to when they agreed to make Ireland's conditions their conditions. I can't see us being pushed under the bus

The gave us their backing to prevent talks moving to Stage 2 until we were satisfied on the border issue. If it comes to the final draft and us using or veto preventing a deal, I cannot see them at that stage being too happy.

Water John

Charlie you seem to be in constant fear. The closer we stay with our EU friends the more assured we will be.

Sam Russell

charlie14 wrote: »

The gave us their backing to prevent talks moving to Stage 2 until we were satisfied on the border issue. If it comes to the final draft and us using or veto preventing a deal, I cannot see them at that stage being too happy.

Surely it is not going to come to a final draft without our approval. It is up to Barnier to propose a likely draft that is acceptable to all 27 members, before it becomes a 'final' draft. I think Barnier is very aware of the Irish position, maybe better than our own negotiators.

LeinsterDub

charlie14 wrote: »

The gave us their backing to prevent talks moving to Stage 2 until we were satisfied on the border issue. If it comes to the final draft and us using or veto preventing a deal, I cannot see them at that stage being too happy.

The UK have completely flip flopped on their December agreement. I expect support to remain strong. If not for Ireland's sake for the sake of the union

charlie14

Water John wrote: »

Charlie you seem to be in constant fear. The closer we stay with our EU friends the more assured we will be.

If we are now talking about a Canada+++ deal where there is a possibility of us having to use our veto on the final draft over the border issue, then it would be pretty much a case of "with friends like that who needs enemies"

charlie14

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The UK have completely flip flopped on their December agreement. I expect support to remain strong. If not for Ireland's sake for the sake of the union

If it does become a case of a Canada+++ deal that would necessitate using our veto on the final draft, as is now being speculated, then our support on the border issue would have certainly weakened from prior to the December agreement.

charlie14

Sam Russell wrote: »

Surely it is not going to come to a final draft without our approval. It is up to Barnier to propose a likely draft that is acceptable to all 27 members, before it becomes a 'final' draft. I think Barnier is very aware of the Irish position, maybe better than our own negotiators.

If it comes to a draft that is acceptable to the other 26 and not us, then for all intents and purposes it would be a final draft that would require us either to accept or not.
Should that come to pass then the pressure will be on us from our EU partners to accept and not veto the final draft.

briany

Will we have to have another referendum to amend something in the constitution if and when we're asked to sign off on a Canada+++ deal?

Econ__

flutered wrote: »

i cannot see the right wing torys having the son of a pakistani immigrant  as pm, btw he could be a muslim therefore unable to hold a position in the church of england, perhaps i am wrong

Javid is popular enough within that wing of the party. He's not muslim btw.

It's a matter of least worst, process of elimination etc. - There isn't many other viable contenders.

Sam Russell

charlie14 wrote: »

If it comes to a draft that is acceptable to the other 26 and not us, then for all intents and purposes it would be a final draft that would require us either to accept or not.
Should that come to pass then the pressure will be on us from our EU partners to accept and not veto the final draft.

If we believe the 'Ireland First' statements, then surely we get to be the first to aprove. If that is so, I think we would be kept in the loop at every stage. There is no sign of any lessening of support fo the bordr question.

Rhineshark

Sam Russell wrote: »

If we believe the 'Ireland First' statements, then surely we get to be the first to aprove. If that is so, I think we would be kept in the loop at every stage. There is no sign of any lessening of support fo the bordr question.

Given the offer of British checks at British ports rather than throw Ireland under the Brexit bus only a fortnight ago, it's a bit previous to be worried yet.

An Ciarraioch

briany wrote: »

Will we have to have another referendum to amend something in the constitution if and when we're asked to sign off on a Canada+++ deal?

No, because it wouldn't be a formal European treaty.

Water John

TM seems to be looking to Labour defectors to support her Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/05/may-secretly-woos-key-labour-mps-to-back-her-brexit-deal

Kermit.de.frog

Yes because her government is about to take a principled, conservative, brexit dump on the DUP.


They don't care about NI.

Capt'n Midnight

Plaid have only 4 MP's out of the 40 Welsh seats otherwise this might be more interesting.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-45745696

Welsh independence must be "on the table" after Brexit, Plaid Cymru's new leader has said.

Adam Price said if there was a "hard" Irish border and the UK left the EU single market and customs union "the appetite for Scottish independence and Irish unity" would be "insatiable".

Akrasia

Right now we're in a guessing game about which of the unbreakable red lines are going to be broken to get to a UK Parliament vote. The EU would be nuts to throw Ireland under the bus when there's still a very large risk that TM won't even be able to pass her deal through Parliament

Ireland needs a backstop. That's our red line, and we have a veto. The EU can side with us, or gamble with the lunatics in the UK

charlie14

Sam Russell wrote: »

If we believe the 'Ireland First' statements, then surely we get to be the first to aprove. If that is so, I think we would be kept in the loop at every stage. There is no sign of any lessening of support fo the bordr question.

It was "Ireland First" back in December when we had the unilateral backing of the other 26 on the border issue. Now I would not be too sure. Especially if their is support from the other 26 for a Canada+++ deal that includes a border.

Sam Russell

charlie14 wrote: »

It was "Ireland First" back in December when we had the unilateral backing of the other 26 on the border issue. Now I would not be too sure. Especially if their is support from the other 26 for a Canada+++ deal that includes a border.

No, it was 'Irelad First' last week.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-45753188

Sinn Féin and the SDLP have rejected the possibility of Stormont having a say over what kind of backstop may emerge if there is a 'no deal' Brexit

Simple maths.

The numbers would give the DUP a veto through the Petition Of Concern so there is no point.