Brexit discussion thread IV

charlie14

Akrasia wrote: »

Right now we're in a guessing game about which of the unbreakable red lines are going to be broken to get to a UK Parliament vote. The EU would be nuts to throw Ireland under the bus when there's still a very large risk that TM won't even be able to pass her deal through Parliament

Ireland needs a backstop. That's our red line, and we have a veto. The EU can side with us, or gamble with the lunatics in the UK

The problem with red lines is that the British have them, the EU have them and we have ours on the border issue.
Some are going to have to be conceded to reach a deal.

My worry is that if a Canada+++ deal is worked out that includes a border, then the pressure comes on our red line from all and sundry.

Akrasia

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-45753188Simple maths.

The numbers would give the DUP a veto through the Petition Of Concern so there is no point.

What if Sinn Fein actually used their votes in Westminster???

There are babies on all sides. Petulant children.

Professor Moriarty

Akrasia wrote: »

What if Sinn Fein actually used their votes in Westminster???

There are babies on all sides. Petulant children.

It would be political suicide for any Sinn Féin MP to take their seat in Westminster.

charlie14

Sam Russell wrote: »

No, it was 'Irelad First' last week.

That was last week. When it comes to politics Harold Wilson, a crafty old British politician, reckoned a day was a long time in politics.

Akrasia

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It would be political suicide for any Sinn Féin MP to take their seat in Westminster.

That's what they say.

It would be actual dead bodies if the border returns to NI

Imreoir2

charlie14 wrote: »

The problem with red lines is that the British have them, the EU have them and we have ours on the border issue.
Some are going to have to be conceded to reach a deal.

My worry is that if a Canada+++ deal is worked out that includes a border, then the pressure comes on our red line from all and sundry.

Can't see it myself, if the EU wanted to betray us like that, why paint themselves into a corner in every ststement they make?

EdgeCase

Why does it have to be Stormont? It’s dysfunctiobal half the time anyway.
I’d propose putting the back stop to a NI plebiscite. I don’t think sectarian party politics should be anywhere near something like this. It’s a huge constitutional question for the people of Northern Ireland, not for the DUP or any other party.

road_high

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Can't see it myself, if the EU wanted to betray us like that, why paint themselves into a corner in every ststement they make?

I don't think the EU will sell Ireland short. Brexit is far less of a big deal on the continent and I don't get any major sense of worry about economic damage it may cause. There's relatively little to lose by supporting Ireland and it appears to weigh heavily on solidarity and loyalty. The UK have long since burned those bridges with their arrogance. I can only imagine the French in particular are dying to give them a bit of reality therapy!

Rhineshark

charlie14 wrote: »

That was last week. When it comes to politics Harold Wilson, a crafty old British politician, reckoned a day was a long time in politics.

Yes, but it was also the week before that and the month before and the December before and the October before that and ..etc back to mid-2016. Apart from one guy in Poland (with whom Coveney apparently had a "productive meeting" with in the last few days) , no-one has broken ranks on supporting Ireland, not even France, or Belgium who would like a bit more attention on their issues as well. Not a whisper of it.

At this point I think the EU countries have earned a bit of benefit of the doubt. Sure, everyone might do a spectacular u-turn in five months time. But people have been saying that at every crunch date so far.

Water John

Charlie was in this panic station, two months or so ago. Some people don't like pressure. Used to have that problem negotiating on behalf of a group, someone in the group would wobble. You spent half the time negotiating across the table and the other more difficult half, keeping your own side on message.
Of course you make bloody sure the EU don't drop the ball or drop you in it, but you'd never show that. The best assurance of that is playing as one team.

Professor Moriarty

Akrasia wrote: »

That's what they say.

It would be actual dead bodies if the border returns to NI

Well, no Sinn Féin MP has sat in Westminster for over 100 years. This is nothing new. It's not for Sinn Féin to sacrifice their political principles to solve a problem created by Tory Little Englanders.

road_high

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Plaid have only 4 MP's out of the 40 Welsh seats otherwise this might be more interesting.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-45745696

But wasn't Wales quite strongly pro-Brexit. Too close to England historically whereas Scotland and Ireland have long histories of Independence and poor relations with England.

charlie14

Water John wrote: »

Charlie was in this panic station, two months or so ago. Some people don't like pressure. Used to have that problem negotiating on behalf of a group, someone in the group would wobble. You spent half the time negotiating across the table and the other more difficult half, keeping your own side on message.
Of course you make bloody sure the EU don't drop the ball or drop you in it, but you'd never show that. The best assurance of that is playing as one team.

Charlie wasn`t in panic station two months or so ago, but last December when talk were allowed to move to Stage 2 without the border issue being nailed down conclusively, rather than Varadkar`s "bullet proof" waffle, he did say that the fudge then had the potential to come back and bite us in the ass if it dragged on too a potential final deal being struck.
Playing as one team works well when all members have the same common difficulty to overcome. Problem here is that we are the only one of the team that has a difficulty with a border when the UK leaves.
Everybody may be singing off the same hymn sheet, or even staying stumm during negotiations, but I have a feeling if the border issue is the sticking point preventing a final deal being done then that could quickly change.

judeboy101

Akrasia wrote: »

What if Sinn Fein actually used their votes in Westminster???

There are babies on all sides. Petulant children.

Tories and dup and Sylva herman and at least 3 labour brexiteers still have a majority even with SF voting, and Tory whip works better than labour one.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-45725572

Philip Hammond when asked about solutions to the border problem at the Conservative Party conference."I don't claim to be an expert on it but the most obvious technology is blockchain."

The Chancellor of the Exchequer wants to use blockchain to solve the Irish border problem ?

That is so wrong on so many levels it's hurting my brain.

trellheim

If the uk as a whole stay in CU for a backstop fudge the arguing will be over an expiry date and that will be where to exercise a veto

Rhineshark

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-45725572The Chancellor of the Exchequer wants to use blockchain to solve the Irish border problem ?

That is so wrong on so many levels it's hurting my brain.

How? How is blockchain going to solve anything more than the "bridge to Ireland" notion?

Also, reading that and the answer from the Treasury;


"We are actively considering technologies that could help facilitate trade over the Northern Ireland - Ireland land border, in order to streamline any requirements that may emerge for traders after the UK leaves the EU. These technological solutions will support our commitment to no physical infrastructure at the land border."

Wot. Hammond absolutely pulled blockchain out if his spindly rear end as a technology that most people don't particularly understand in the hopes that it will sound vaguely reassuring. He may as well have said

"In our quest for technology of any sort to solve the border we are doing a feasibility study on toasters, microwaves and white appliances to solve the issue and have great confidence in finding a solution that keeps the commitment to no hard border."

Or he could have just said "edghidvnko dhkywx". It would have been just as useful and may have summoned a demon.

First Up

Rhineshark wrote:

"We are actively considering technologies that could help facilitate trade over the Northern Ireland - Ireland land border, in order to streamline any requirements that may emerge for traders after the UK leaves the EU. These technological solutions will support our commitment to no physical infrastructure at the land border."

The EU is of course pointing out that if they are that good, the same streamlining technologies could be used to facilitate trade between Britain and NI without physical infrastructure.

Rhineshark

First Up wrote: »

The EU is of course pointing out that if they are that good, the same streamlining technologies could be used to facilitate trade between Britain and NI without physical infrastructure.

But that would be silly because "sovereignty", a concept that is only relevent to the UK. Other countries don't get sovereignty.

Sam Russell

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-45725572The Chancellor of the Exchequer wants to use blockchain to solve the Irish border problem ?

That is so wrong on so many levels it's hurting my brain.

I think he is confusing 'Blockchain' with 'Chainlink' which is a technology in making a fence.

Econ__

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-45725572The Chancellor of the Exchequer wants to use blockchain to solve the Irish border problem ?

That is so wrong on so many levels it's hurting my brain.

Hammond is pro EU, pro Single Market and pro Customs Union. He has no incentive to push for 'technological' solutions to solve the Irish border conundrum.

He's taking the píss out of the Brexiteers - which is no surprise as he has been riling them for the last two years.

prawnsambo

This guy/(girl?) has an interesting take on it all.

Basically (and this is very basic, important to read the whole thread) he's saying that talk of a 'deal' is wildly premature. For very obvious reasons. This is about a withdrawal agreement.

flutered

Imreoir2 wrote: »

charlie14 wrote: »

The problem with red lines is that the British have them, the EU have them and we have ours on the border issue.
Some are going to have to be conceded to reach a deal.

My worry is that if a Canada+++ deal is worked out that includes a border, then the pressure comes on our red line from all and sundry.

Can't see it myself, if the EU wanted to betray us like that, why paint themselves into a corner in every ststement they make?

if ireland was betrayed, would not the small east european country be wondering who is next

Enzokk

prawnsambo wrote: »

This guy/(girl?) has an interesting take on it all.

Basically (and this is very basic, important to read the whole thread) he's saying that talk of a 'deal' is wildly premature. For very obvious reasons. This is about a withdrawal agreement.

Yeah, this is all about making the December agreement into a legal agreement where the UK cannot turn around and decide they don't want it any longer. Once we have the withdrawal agreement the real negotiations will start about a trade deal. If the UK thinks this has been hard, wait until they start discussing trade with 27 other nations at once.

An Ciarraioch

It appears the UK public would be perfectly happy with Brexit In Name Only:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-negotiations-no-deal-full-access-single-market-polling-theresa-may-a8571846.html

Leroy42

It has got to a point now where despite all the evidence in front of many people in terms of how bad Brexit will be (and one can argue over whether it is down to Brexit or the way the Tories have handled it) many are of the view that the decision having been made, it would be too embarrassing to review it now and as such they must simply soldier on to whatever the future holds.

TM speech even alluded to it when she said that whatever the outcome British hard work and ingenuity would find a way. Hardly a ringing endorsement

charlie14

flutered wrote: »

if ireland was betrayed, would not the small east european country be wondering who is next

If any of them have a problem where it is deemed by the big boys and girls of the EU as not for the so called "common good", then they probably would not be left wondering for long if you consider our own experience of just 7 years ago with Jean-Claude Trichet and bank senior bondholders.

Nate--IRL--

charlie14 wrote: »

.......if you consider our own experience of just 7 years ago with Jean-Claude Trichet and bank senior bondholders.

Not letting this pass, putting the tax payer in hock by guaranteeing the Bank Bond holders with taxpayer money is wholly Fianna Fails fault, utterly and entirely.

Nate

badtoro

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

charlie14 wrote: »

.......if you consider our own experience of just 7 years ago with Jean-Claude Trichet and bank senior bondholders.

Not letting this pass, putting the tax payer in hock by guaranteeing the Bank Bond holders with taxpayer money is wholly Fianna Fails fault, utterly and entirely.

Nate

Though I find myself siding with them more often than I used to, I must agree with the above. The reality is Ireland blinked first, we had the ticking parcel and agreed to keep it.

charlie14

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

Not letting this pass, putting the tax payer in hock by guaranteeing the Bank Bond holders with taxpayer money is wholly Fianna Fails fault, utterly and entirely.

Nate

You may have missed that I mentioned 7 years ago.

Michael Noonan the then FG finance minister has stated that he was on his way to the Dail on March 31st. 2011 to announce his proposal to burn bank bondholders. Something that would have reduced that taxpayer hock, (for Anglo alone, 6 Billion euro) but had to drop that proposal upon receiving a call from Jean-Claude Trichet telling him if he even dreamt of doing soo "a bomb would go off in Dublin"