Brexit discussion thread IV

murphaph

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They haven't even been 'vocal' about the issues surrounding the stagnation of an agreement that is NOW of ultra importance.

The problem is that it is only important now that the south is under threat and they are applying plenty of pressure and being vocal. Just ask any DUPer about that.

The primary responsibility of any Dublin government is the Republic. That's just the reality.

kuro68k

The best thing that the Irish government could do is to agree with the other EU nations that the UK could cancel the whole thing and continue on exactly the same terms as it had before. Nothing lost, just say you changed your mind and we can put it all behind us. Maybe even promise some assistance with migration to ease the burden, addressing the main reason for leaving.

Then hope to god that the UK can come to its senses, have a people's vote on and abandon the whole thing.

FrancieBrady

murphaph wrote: »

The primary responsibility of any Dublin government is the Republic. That's just the reality.

They shouldn't be going guarantor in an international agreement if that is the case.

swampgas

kuro68k wrote: »

The best thing that the Irish government could do is to agree with the other EU nations that the UK could cancel the whole thing and continue on exactly the same terms as it had before. Nothing lost, just say you changed your mind and we can put it all behind us. Maybe even promise some assistance with migration to ease the burden, addressing the main reason for leaving.

Then hope to god that the UK can come to its senses, have a people's vote on and abandon the whole thing.

I disagree. The UK has behaved appallingly, and has caused large costs to the rest of the EU in terms of time and money. Politically, there has to be consequences for the UK, and serious consequences at that - there is no way we can pretend this never happened.

Personally, there is a part of me that wouldn't mind a hard no-deal Brexit, let the Tories reap the whirlwind. It might make them think twice the next time they are tempted to threaten the peace, stability and economies of their neighbours in such a cavalier way.

Capt'n Midnight

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I think it is worth pointing out that the same constituents do not want Brexit either

what most of them and a lot of small u unionists want is business as usual but that if there is a Hard Brexit then a united Ireland could look attractive which SF would count as a win

The best possible short term outcome of SF voting would be to defeat article 50 but that would preserve the Union and let the DUP off the hook.

BonnieSituation

trellheim wrote: »

OK so it looks like a lot of the poll corrs are lining up behind a fudge on controls to avoid calling it a border , see todays Irish Mail on Sunday . I still cant see how its going to work unless they stay in the Customs Union forever.... much media prepping is being done

Well that's kinda likely with reunification on the agenda.

Just makes life easier come the next 10 years.

BonnieSituation

LeinsterDub wrote: »

How is the south under threat? Surely the best thing for the south is to say the north be damned let's have a FTA with Britain.

Give over.

BonnieSituation

murphaph wrote: »

The primary responsibility of any Dublin government is the Republic. That's just the reality.

The primary and a half responsibility is Ireland as a whole though. Despite your clear partitionist ways there's a lot of us that give a **** about those in the Six. And despite the last 90 or so years of passive ignorance it has actually taken a Blueshirt government to step up and look out for the north.

Hardly a bad thing. You should probably cross the border sometime. Even hit Donegal as a final destination so you don't feel "stranded".

The friction of distance is a powerful thing.

ancapailldorcha

BonnieSituation, don't get personal please.

Capt'n Midnight

Good loser wrote: »

Ireland's population is about to suffer severe financial hardship because of Brexit, to the extent of 8% contraction in the south and twice that in the north. Sinn Fein are fully aware of this.

Our economy is due to grow by 8.9% this year. In that context Brexit is just a temporary setback down here.


Up north best case a trade friendly deal would mean growth of just 0.4% next year, 0.2% the year after and 0.4% the following year. (Roughly what we are forecast to do monthly over the same time.)

Anything that isn't trade friendly, never mind a Hard Brexit is years of recession.

Which side of the border looks more attractive ?

Imreoir2

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Our economy is due to grow by 8.9% this year. In that context Brexit is just a temporary setback down here.


Up north best case a trade friendly deal would mean growth of just 0.4% next year, 0.2% the year after and 0.4% the following year. (Roughly what we are forecast to do monthly over the same time.)

Anything that isn't trade friendly, never mind a Hard Brexit is years of recession.

Which side of the border looks more attractive ?

Do you think we could we see a significant amount of economic migration from NI into the republic if there is a deep recession up there?

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1049032591578472448

The level of arrogance and sheer ignorance among quite a few Brexiters is stunning.

How dare Eire stand up for their own interest, this is GREAT Britain, Empire 2.0 etc

LeinsterDub

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Give over.

I'm not actually suggesting that this should be the Irish government position

FrancieBrady

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1049032591578472448

The level of arrogance and sheer ignorance among quite a few Brexiters is stunning.

How dare Eire stand up for their own interest, this is GREAT Britain, Empire 2.0 etc

He has 'spoken to a few people' and can figure out the mood of a nation. :rolleyes::D

LeinsterDub

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It is economically under major threat if there is a hard border and if there is a Brexit.

Saying the 'north be dammed' is just suicide for this island, even though I know many would like to say that. Not even FG or FF are that myopic or or stupid.

Brexit can't be avoided by the Irish government and the north represents just 1% of Irish exports. https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/report-reveals-extent-of-north-s-dependence-on-trade-with-the-republic-1.3539430%3fmode=amp. So saying the North be damned would make sense in purely economic terms. (And for the sake of clarity I'm not advocating this position) All of this is really an aside though as you've not clarified what realistic actions you would like the Irish government to take.

Spanish Eyes

Whatever happens now, it must be galling for the Conservatives to have to acknowledge a backstop no matter what.

Their hubris and arrogance is mind boggling. I just hope they will compromise. I live in hope!

McGiver

kuro68k wrote:

The best thing that the Irish government could do is to agree with the other EU nations that the UK could cancel the whole thing and continue on exactly the same terms as it had before. Nothing lost, just say you changed your mind and we can put it all behind us. Maybe even promise some assistance with migration to ease the burden, addressing the main reason for leaving.

Ever heard of a term "moral hazard"? That's exactly what this would give a precedent for and encourage. Other member states would just invoke A50 with the prospect of cancelling it when they extract some sort of a ransom from the rest of the EU.

An Ciarraioch

LeinsterDub wrote: »

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It is economically under major threat if there is a hard border and if there is a Brexit.

Saying the 'north be dammed' is just suicide for this island, even though I know many would like to say that. Not even FG or FF are that myopic or or stupid.

Brexit can't be avoided by the Irish government and the north represents just 1% of Irish exports. https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/report-reveals-extent-of-north-s-dependence-on-trade-with-the-republic-1.3539430%3fmode=amp. So saying the North be damned would make sense in purely economic terms. (And for the sake of clarity I'm not advocating this position) All of this is really an aside though as you've not clarified what realistic actions you would like the Irish government to take.

Perhaps, but if Arlene inadvertently backs May into a Customs Union, we won't complain about the East-West benefit!

FrancieBrady

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Brexit can't be avoided by the Irish government and the north represents just 1% of Irish exports. https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/report-reveals-extent-of-north-s-dependence-on-trade-with-the-republic-1.3539430%3fmode=amp. So saying the North be damned would make sense in purely economic terms. (And for the sake of clarity I'm not advocating this position) All of this is really an aside though as you've not clarified what realistic actions you would like the Irish government to take.

Like other nationalists I am happy with what the Irish governement is doing re: Brexit although I think they may have slipped up not digging their heels in in December, we shall see.

Their actions have recieved praise because of it's novelty though, they have been slack on their committments to the GFA and allowed it to stagnate in fear of standing up to British slacking with regard to things like the Stormont House Agreement and Irish language and other social rights that are supposed to have been delivered ages ago.

Capt'n Midnight

kuro68k wrote: »

The best thing that the Irish government could do is to agree with the other EU nations that the UK could cancel the whole thing and continue on exactly the same terms as it had before. Nothing lost, just say you changed your mind and we can put it all behind us. Maybe even promise some assistance with migration to ease the burden, addressing the main reason for leaving.

Then hope to god that the UK can come to its senses, have a people's vote on and abandon the whole thing.

The whole reason for Brexit was that even though the UK got concessions, they wanted more. They didn't implement the seven year bar on EU migrants and are only now sending home those there more than three months without means to support themselves.

There are NO plans to reduce immigration. All the UK govt has said is that EU nationals won't get special treatment.

A lot of Brexit is to do with expecting 27 other countries to change the rules to suit the UK, when the UK couldn't be arsed using the subtleties in the existing rules to get a similar end. Hence blue passports being made overseas.


They don't need assistance, they just need to stop shooting themselves in the foot.
The UK economy has lagged behind by 2.5% since Article 50 ,
HALF A BILLION POUNDS A WEEK IN LOST TAX REVENUE.

And no trade deals to replace that lost tax on the horizon

Capt'n Midnight

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Do you think we could we see a significant amount of economic migration from NI into the republic if there is a deep recession up there?

UK probably won't be booming either.

Or other English speaking countries.

Hard Brexit doesn't rule out the EU, they an get an Irish passport.

LeinsterDub

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Like other nationalists I am happy with what the Irish governement is doing re: Brexit although I think they may have slipped up not digging their heels in in December, we shall see.

Their actions have recieved praise because of it's novelty though, they have been slack on their committments to the GFA and allowed it to stagnate in fear of standing up to British slacking with regard to things like the Stormont House Agreement and Irish language and other social rights that are supposed to have been delivered ages ago.

We got a rock solid commitment in December. Digging our site heals in then would have looked petulant. The Irish government played their hand as best they could. It's not their fault the British are liers.

Vague noise about standing up to the British and support the GFA.You've been asked to commit to actual actions several times and have ignored it. I can now only assume you've no solid suggestions

An Ciarraioch

Interesting Scottish poll results on independence:

Now:

Yes 47%
No 53%

If UK leaves EU:

Yes 50%
No 50%

If No Deal Brexit:

Yes 52%
No 48%

FrancieBrady

LeinsterDub wrote: »

We got a rock solid commitment in December. Digging our site heals in then would have looked petulant. The Irish government played their hand as best they could. It's not their fault the British are liers.

Perish the thought we would look 'petulant' standing up for the interests of the country. :rolleyes:
We'll see if they played their hand well. The game is far from over.

Vague noise about standing up to the British and support the GFA.You've been asked to commit to actual actions several times and have ignored it. I can now only assume you've no solid suggestions

Jesus. There are mechanisms within the agreement to voice concerns and to get things done.
The fact is the agreement stagnated and neither government did anything to avoid it or to pressure those who were dragging their feet. May's government even allowed the DUP into a position were they don't have to agree to implement already agreed deals with hardly a peep out of Dublin.
Dublin chose to criticise SF mostly for the collapse.

LeinsterDub

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Jesus. There are mechanisms within the agreement to voice concerns and to get things done.

You're just not going to tell us which mechanisms you wanted used and when? Vague, vague, vague.

Kermit.de.frog

Fine Gael going hard core Republican.

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/varadkar-enforces-united-ireland-stance-ahead-of-crunch-brexit-summit-37392121.html

FrancieBrady

LeinsterDub wrote: »

You're just not going to tell us which mechanisms you wanted used and when? Vague, vague, vague.

Read the supplementary material to the Agreement, pay attention to Strand 2 of the agreement itself and the various roles and mechanisms available and the North South Ministerial Council.

LeinsterDub

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Read the supplementary material to the Agreement, pay attention to Strand 2 of the agreement itself and the various roles and mechanisms available and the North South Ministerial Council.

It's your argument I can't make it for you by reading anything

FrancieBrady

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Fine Gael going hard core Republican.

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/varadkar-enforces-united-ireland-stance-ahead-of-crunch-brexit-summit-37392121.html

Or jumping on a bandwagon maybe?

FrancieBrady

LeinsterDub wrote: »

It's your argument I can't make it for you by reading anything

Anyone who knows anything about the agreement knows that there are mechanisms to raise concerns about it, for all it's participants.

If you think that the Irish government have used these fully, fair enough. There are plenty who would disagree and the state of the GFA at the moment would clearly indicate that the guarantors have been irresponsibly slacking in making sure the process does not stall.