Brexit discussion thread IV

Enzokk

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Anyone who knows anything about the agreement knows that there are mechanisms to raise concerns about it, for all it's participants.

If you think that the Irish government have used these fully, fair enough. There are plenty who would disagree and the state of the GFA at the moment would clearly indicate that the guarantors have been irresponsibly slacking in making sure the process does not stall.

Could you please provide a link as I would like to know more about the mechanisms and I am not sure what you mean, even after searching for what you mentioned.

Anthracite

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Or jumping on a bandwagon maybe?

So if FG don't bang on about a UI, they are West Brits, and if they do mention it, they are bandwagoning.

Hard to see what they can do right.

charlie14

Anthracite wrote: »

So if FG don't bang on about a UI, they are West Brits, and if they do mention it, they are bandwagoning.

Hard to see what they can do right.

A case of damned if you do and damned if you don`t alright, but with the whole border controversy at the moment, baiting the DUP with talk of a united Ireland probably wasn`t the smartest move

FrancieBrady

Enzokk wrote: »

Could you please provide a link as I would like to know more about the mechanisms and I am not sure what you mean, even after searching for what you mentioned.

It is all there Enzokk and in the material relating to the intergovermental conference which Irish governments seem to meekly wait for the British to call. There are plenty of platforms for them to work and be vocal on.

FrancieBrady

Anthracite wrote: »

So if FG don't bang on about a UI, they are West Brits, and if they do mention it, they are bandwagoning.

Hard to see what they can do right.

I never called anyone a 'West Brit' in my life.

Fine Gael Sept. 2018

“The challenges of these Brexit negotiations should never be twisted into tools for a constitutional agenda for Northern Ireland. To seek to do so would be reckless, risking increased division between communities in Northern Ireland and diverting focus from ensuring an EU-UK deal which best preserves our peace and normality,”

Fine Gael October 2018

Fine Gael is the party of Europe and the united Ireland party.

Do you think Leo has 'risked increased divisions in NI'?

Junkyard Tom

What Leo's PR people have advised him is that his standing firm on the border and with the British is doing FG's numbers no harm in the polls. It also has the added benefit of taking the 'Republican wind' out of the sales of SF and FF.

kuro68k

swampgas wrote: »

kuro68k wrote: »

The best thing that the Irish government could do is to agree with the other EU nations that the UK could cancel the whole thing and continue on exactly the same terms as it had before. Nothing lost, just say you changed your mind and we can put it all behind us. Maybe even promise some assistance with migration to ease the burden, addressing the main reason for leaving.

Then hope to god that the UK can come to its senses, have a people's vote on and abandon the whole thing.

I disagree. The UK has behaved appallingly, and has caused large costs to the rest of the EU in terms of time and money.  Politically, there has to be consequences for the UK, and serious consequences at that - there is no way we can pretend this never happened.

Personally, there is a part of me that wouldn't mind a hard no-deal Brexit, let the Tories reap the whirlwind.  It might make them think twice the next time they are tempted to threaten the peace, stability and economies of their neighbours in such a cavalier way.

I understand your feelings but the UK is already suffering and will continue to do so no matter what. It's proven itself to be an unstable economy and a lot of business has already moved away.

What matters now is trying to limit the damage to everyone and rehabilitate the UK. A hard brexit is suicide for Ireland as well, and I don't think most people would accept that just for the sake of revenge.

swampgas

kuro68k wrote: »

I understand your feelings but the UK is already suffering and will continue to do so no matter what. It's proven itself to be an unstable economy and a lot of business has already moved away.

What matters now is trying to limit the damage to everyone and rehabilitate the UK. A hard brexit is suicide for Ireland as well, and I don't think most people would accept that just for the sake of revenge.

Yes, and while a part of me feels that way I do realise that it is not the best way forward for all concerned.

I do feel though that it is important that the UK are not allowed to "game the system", they should not be allowed to benefit from negotiating in bad faith.
The EU has been straight with them from the beginning, the UK are the ones who have dodged, lied and backtracked. Rewarding that kind of behaviour would be dangerous in the long run.

Leroy42

kuro68k wrote: »

I understand your feelings but the UK is already suffering and will continue to do so no matter what. It's proven itself to be an unstable economy and a lot of business has already moved away.

What matters now is trying to limit the damage to everyone and rehabilitate the UK. A hard brexit is suicide for Ireland as well, and I don't think most people would accept that just for the sake of revenge.

It is not about revenge, it is as you mentioned rehabilitation.

But the UK are not anywhere close to that. They are still fighting with themselves. Even last week, one of the key announcements during the Tory conference was the end of FoM for ever. Said with triumphism and glee. No mention of course of the massive loss of rights that every UK citizen has just suffered. No mention of the additional costs to travel, the restirctions on work, company ownership etc.

So simply wanting them to rehabilitate is not enough. Like any patient, they need to want it first. And they don't. They see Brussels and some evil overlord. They see foreigners as the problem. They see all domestics issues as the fault of the EU.

Even within the negotiations, they see the NI border as a small issue politicised to try to twart the democratic will of the UK, a scheme dreamed up by the ROI and EU to make life tough for TM.

No deal that is given to the UK will be enough. It will be nothing more than a stop gap. Whilst that may be the right thing to do, do not confuse that with it doing anything to stop the thinking in the UK that the EU is at fault.

Let no one forget, the UK made a firm commitment to the EU, on which the ROI rightly accepted and allowed the process to move forward, which they have totally gone back on. They cannot be trusted, have lied to the EU, ROI and their voters throughout the whole process. They have tried to blame the ROI, tried to claim that Leo is not working for Ireland, tried to claim that any border has nothing to do with them. Painted red lines but claimed the EU won't negotiate. I not provide information when they had agreed to do so. Refuse to lay down their actual wish list.

First Up

kuro68k wrote:

What matters now is trying to limit the damage to everyone and rehabilitate the UK. A hard brexit is suicide for Ireland as well, and I don't think most people would accept that just for the sake of revenge.

The UK can rehabilitate itself. There will be a cost to Ireland but it will by no means be fatal. There will be opportunities to replace the UK as a supplier to the EU market and as the only English speaking country in the EU, our attraction of FDI will be considerably enhanced.

Roanmore

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1049032591578472448

The level of arrogance and sheer ignorance among quite a few Brexiters is stunning.

How dare Eire stand up for their own interest, this is GREAT Britain, Empire 2.0 etc

That guy is regularly on the paper review on Sky News. Keeps throwing around terms like Remoaners and sore losers, never anything constructive.

trellheim

Right we are going to see more of the deal exposed this week its being tested slowly so as not to scare the horses , the last to know will be the DUP I'd say ,

the big bet is will the ERG take a UK in the CU ( time limit) and NI permanently in the CU ( no time limit), CTA continues , the on the table is is Canada+++ (;)

oooooo it might... just might

BonnieSituation

charlie14 wrote: »

A case of damned if you do and damned if you don`t alright, but with the whole border controversy at the moment, baiting the DUP with talk of a united Ireland probably wasn`t the smartest move

And if they didn't "bait the DUP"? Would the DUP have grown up and started to act like adults?

Pandering to the DUP has never worked. We're better letting them sulk away while the rest of us move on.

Leroy42

All this talk of a Canada +++, my understanding is that no trade deal will actually be agreed. At most the transition period will come into effect. UK has a bit of leverage at the moment and the EU has steadfastly refused to engage in trade talks until the withdrawal is completed.

Now, my understanding, is that in effect a deal would in spirit be done, and that seems to be the message being sold at the moment, but I don't think the EU is being asked to conclude a trade deal with the UK at the present time.

Or am I missing something

LeinsterDub

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Anyone who knows anything about the agreement knows that there are mechanisms to raise concerns about it, for all it's participants.

If you think that the Irish government have used these fully, fair enough. There are plenty who would disagree and the state of the GFA at the moment would clearly indicate that the guarantors have been irresponsibly slacking in making sure the process does not stall.

You're the one claiming that they haven't and yet refuse to be pinned down to actual examples

Imreoir2

Leroy42 wrote: »

All this talk of a Canada +++, my understanding is that no trade deal will actually be agreed. At most the transition period will come into effect. UK has a bit of leverage at the moment and the EU has steadfastly refused to engage in trade talks until the withdrawal is completed.

Now, my understanding, is that in effect a deal would in spirit be done, and that seems to be the message being sold at the moment, but I don't think the EU is being asked to conclude a trade deal with the UK at the present time.

Or am I missing something

The Treaty is not about the future trade deal, but Article 50 which is the basis for the process does state that the future relationship must be accounted for. The EU has taken the line that this means that there will be a non-binding political declaration on the future relationship both sides intend to develop alongside the withdrawl treaty. The UK wants clear "linkege" between the withdrawl treaty and the future trade deal. The EU would prefer a vague political declaration while the UK want's something more concrete and binding. The problem is that the UK is not entirely clear themselves on what they want the EU to bind itself to, and the proposals that have come forward are unacceptable.

The EU seems to be indicating that if the UK were to ditch the Chequers proposal and ask for some form of linkege pointing to a Canada+++ FTA style deal, they would be open to that.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Anyone who knows anything about the agreement knows that there are mechanisms to raise concerns about it, for all it's participants.

If you think that the Irish government have used these fully, fair enough. There are plenty who would disagree and the state of the GFA at the moment would clearly indicate that the guarantors have been irresponsibly slacking in making sure the process does not stall.

There is nothing stopping Sinn Fein from getting the Assembly going in the North except for their own pride just as there is nothing stopping them from going into Westminister except for their own pride.

Sinn Fein can't form a government in Northern Ireland. They can't take up their seats in Westminister. All they can do is implore a FG government to bail them out of their problems. How weak can a political party be when they are reduced to supplicant status like that?

FrancieBrady

LeinsterDub wrote: »

You're the one claiming that they haven't and yet refuse to be pinned down to actual examples

There is no executive operating at the moment. What bigger example of the guarantor's failure do you need?

Both governments have failed to bring about the reforms and rights the process was supposed to have delivered.

The Stormont House Agreement, Irish language Rights, Same sex marriage and abortion rights. Dealing with the past and the British/Unionist refusal to take part in it. The list goes on and Dublin sits meekly on the sidelines content to point the finger mainly at nationalists.

Way off topic now, and I am not continuing with this as I respect the thread too much, but there are enough examples above for you to research.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Take the in-depth GFA/United Ireland discussion to a new thread please.

lawred2

This is some good stuff on relative trade sizes by Colm McCarthy.

Brexiteers believe, contrary to virtually all expert opinion, that lost trade with the EU can be compensated with bounteous opportunities outside Europe. She noted that her recent visit to Kenya was the first by a British premier in 30 years.

Boris Johnson visited Peru when he was foreign secretary, and was the first holder of that office to do so in 52 years, he informed the Tory conference. Both discussed the trade possibilities with their neglected hosts.

Kenya and Peru have been ignored by trade-hunting British ministers for good reasons. They import very little from the UK.

Just for fun, the total in 2016 of UK merchandise exports to Ireland, which reached 55 times the Kenyan figure or 107 times the Peru number, can be distributed between the Republic's 26 counties in proportion to the published household income figures. If Kenya happened to be the 27th Irish county, its 2016 imports of goods from the UK would place it in 17th spot, between Kilkenny and Westmeath. Peru would come 25th, behind Longford and ahead of last-place Leitrim (population 32,044).

UK goods exports to the entirety of South America, Central America and the Caribbean in 2016 were one-third the figure for Ireland or half the figure for Belgium. Johnson visited Argentina and Chile as well as Peru: he would have encountered the same market for UK exporters had he made the shorter trip to Galway.

A full peregrination through every country in Latin America would have taken him a month, to touch base with markets for British exports contactable on a day-trip to Sweden.

Liam Fox, the man expected to negotiate the UK's post-Brexit trade bonanza, namechecked Canada, Mexico and South Korea on his list of most promising prospects. The EU already has free trade agreements with all three, to which the UK loses access six months hence.

Puts some of these prospective markets into context.

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/colm-mccarthy/delusions-and-dogma-as-uk-blames-the-cliff-it-is-jumping-off-37392196.html

Imreoir2

lawred2 wrote: »

This is some good stuff on relative trade sizes by Colm McCarthy.



Puts some of these prospective markets into context.

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/colm-mccarthy/delusions-and-dogma-as-uk-blames-the-cliff-it-is-jumping-off-37392196.html

Something tells me the Brexiteers have not really thought this trough. It makes sence that you would trade more with your nearest neighbours, but it is still surprising that distance makes such a massive difference.

charlie14

BonnieSituation wrote: »

And if they didn't "bait the DUP"? Would the DUP have grown up and started to act like adults?

Pandering to the DUP has never worked. We're better letting them sulk away while the rest of us move on.

With their total disregard that 56% in NI voted remain the DUP look like a throwback to the days of gerrymandering. With them not growing up and acting like adult since those days, I wouldn`t hold out much hope for them doing so for the foreseeable future.
They are a party of political dinosaurs, but when it comes to the border issue I would have expected a little more tact from a Taoiseach than giving them more petrol to throw on the fire of their claim that the Republic is simply using the issue as a means of achieving a united Ireland.

LuckyLloyd

swampgas wrote: »

I disagree. The UK has behaved appallingly, and has caused large costs to the rest of the EU in terms of time and money. Politically, there has to be consequences for the UK, and serious consequences at that - there is no way we can pretend this never happened.

Personally, there is a part of me that wouldn't mind a hard no-deal Brexit, let the Tories reap the whirlwind. It might make them think twice the next time they are tempted to threaten the peace, stability and economies of their neighbours in such a cavalier way.

There's the part of me that relishes such an outcome, it's what they deserve after all and it could lead to an outcome where they come back looking for membership cap in hand within the decade after a significant realignment of their societal discourse.

However - leaving aside the damage that does to our economy - there's the part of me who understands what a terrible outcome this would be for the working poor of the UK, particularly those regions that have been manipulated most extensively to bring forth this charade in the first place. And that cohort of people are already hurting from a savage war on the poor running on eight years and counting. Most Irish people will have some links with these people. They don't deserve being at the mercy of the Conservatives and Singapore on Thames.

lawred2

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

There's the part of me that relishes such an outcome, it's what they deserve after all and it could lead to an outcome where they come back looking for membership cap in hand within the decade after a significant realignment of their societal discourse.

However - leaving aside the damage that does to our economy - there's the part of me who understands what a terrible outcome this would be for the working poor of the UK, particularly those regions that have been manipulated most extensively to bring forth this charade in the first place. And that cohort of people are already hurting from a savage war on the poor running on eight years and counting. Most Irish people will have some links with these people. They don't deserve being at the mercy of the Conservatives and Singapore on Thames.

well it's never easy to protect people from the consequences of their own ignorance.. and they will always be rife for manipulation at the hands of such a Tory press machine as exists in the UK

Infini

charlie14 wrote: »

With their total disregard that 56% in NI voted remain the DUP look like a throwback to the days of gerrymandering. With them not growing up and acting like adult since those days, I wouldn`t hold out much hope for them doing so for the foreseeable future.
They are a party of political dinosaurs, but when it comes to the border issue I would have expected a little more tact from a Taoiseach than giving them more petrol to throw on the fire of their claim that the Republic is simply using the issue as a means of achieving a united Ireland.

Thing is with these dinosaurs is if you give them enough rope they'll hang themselves eventually. The parties down here wont deny claims of looking for a UI in the long run they just wont look at using Brexit to cause it but rather look for it to happen as a way of a way out for NI for westminsters incompetence.

All people up there need is reassurance that they'll be looked after in a UI and that rejoining the rest of the Island has far more advantages both economically and politically than sticking with a dysfunctional, poisonous and broken UK. The only ones who will cause trouble will be the headbangers but they'll have to wake up and realise the worlds changing, they failed to adapt and the DUP helped cause this and if they really cant stand living in a UI they can go to the UK if they want instead.

Rhineshark

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

There's the part of me that relishes such an outcome, it's what they deserve after all and it could lead to an outcome where they come back looking for membership cap in hand within the decade after a significant realignment of their societal discourse.

However - leaving aside the damage that does to our economy - there's the part of me who understands what a terrible outcome this would be for the working poor of the UK, particularly those regions that have been manipulated most extensively to bring forth this charade in the first place. And that cohort of people are already hurting from a savage war on the poor running on eight years and counting. Most Irish people will have some links with these people. They don't deserve being at the mercy of the Conservatives and Singapore on Thames.

Aye, same for me for most of that. The poorest will suffer most and on up through the middle classes. The wealthiest shoving this madness on will be fine ofc. Hell, the wealthiest and least scrupulous will probably make a killing on it. All they need to sacrifice is country and any form of honour, which, not having a monetary value, is either priceless or worthless. I would say priceless but disastor capitalists would probably just look confused and ask how to calculate it in money in their pockets.

The language used in the first ref, back when the UK was drowning and needed the IMF bailout was a million miles from the flag-waving tub-thumping of today. That was far more of a national acceptance that Britain no longer ruled the waves and could not survive as a lone island pretending nowhere else existed bar the grateful Commonwealth. If it comes to that, the language was far more reasoned, nuanced and based in reality. Took 40 years of lying and lazy blaming of anything negative on the EU plus nearly a decade of punishing (and kinda unneccessary) austerity to get the electorate to its current state of bewildered and resentful hysteria. Maybe it will take hitting the wall, as it did then, to bring out the pragmatic side in our cousins again. But it's going to hurt - them and us. And Netherlands, France, Germany, Spain etc in roughly order.

swampgas

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

There's the part of me that relishes such an outcome, it's what they deserve after all and it could lead to an outcome where they come back looking for membership cap in hand within the decade after a significant realignment of their societal discourse.

However - leaving aside the damage that does to our economy - there's the part of me who understands what a terrible outcome this would be for the working poor of the UK, particularly those regions that have been manipulated most extensively to bring forth this charade in the first place. And that cohort of people are already hurting from a savage war on the poor running on eight years and counting. Most Irish people will have some links with these people. They don't deserve being at the mercy of the Conservatives and Singapore on Thames.

Exactly. It's ironic that the EU (and Ireland as part of that) may be showing more consideration to the working poor in the UK than their own government, and indeed more than they do themselves, given the way many of them have voted.

I wonder if the short term pain of hard Brexit would be outweighed by long term gain for the EU as a whole and for the UK, which would be forced (one hopes) to take a more realistic view of its place in the world, and reform itself. Rather like the Brexiteers claiming that hard Brexit would be hard in the short term but better in the long term, but not quite in the way they think.

All things considered though I think it's better to avoid a hard Brexit if possible, primarily because of the NI border issue and because I have family in the UK. It's galling though, having to put up with the poor behaviour of the British government, the tabloid rags and the likes of Farage, Rees-Mogg and Johnson. It's almost as if they are daring the rest of to boot them out without a deal.

keane2097

The big problem now is that if the UK backs away from the edge, they have already done so much damage that there is very likely to be a lot of pain in store in the next decade or more anyway.

Without actually leaving the EU the media are likely to have a really easy time refocusing the ire at the economic stagnation on the EU and we will be back here again or somewhere even worse in ten years.

It is possible that we actually need them to leave so they can get the attitude adjustment that is so obviously required.

LuckyLloyd

keane2097 wrote: »

The big problem now is that if the UK backs away from the edge, they have already done so much damage that there is very likely to be a lot of pain in store in the next decade or more anyway.

Without actually leaving the EU the media are likely to have a really easy time refocusing the ire at the economic stagnation on the EU and we will be back here again or somewhere even worse in ten years.

It is possible that we actually need them to leave so they can get the attitude adjustment that is so obviously required.

That's a completely fair viewpoint: remove the cancerous tissue so the EU can continue to grow stronger after a couple year set back. It could be the best thing for the EU project long term even if it causes economic harm in the short to medium term.

An Ciarraioch

Judging by the Guardian's live thread, it's increasingly unlikely that there will be any backstop proposal by the October summit - at what point do negotiators just walk away until London gets serious?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/oct/08/labour-and-tory-mayors-unite-to-demand-they-take-back-control-of-regional-spending-after-brexit-politics-live