Brexit discussion thread IV

swampgas

charlie14 wrote: »

Don`t take me up wrong where the DUP are concerned.

I believe rather than tip-toeing around them what the need and deserve is a good and regular kicking.

What the don`t need is comments from a Taoiseach that makes their claim that this is all about the Republic pushing a UI agenda under the guise of the Brexit border issue look credible to unionist supporter and pushes more of them into their camp.

briany wrote: »

There's no point in being needlessly antagonistic. All that's doing is playing into the DUP and Brexiteers' hands. If they can't have everyone thinking their way, then the current division is a pretty good consolation prize as it will, by default, lead to them getting pretty much what they want.

There may be no happy ending here, but if there isn't one, then at least we could say we weren't the ones wilfully stoking the flames on all this.

Fair enough, I'll defer to your greater experience on this one.

Professor Moriarty

briany wrote: »

There's no point in being needlessly antagonistic. All that's doing is playing into the DUP and Brexiteers' hands. If they can't have everyone thinking their way, then the current division is a pretty good consolation prize as it will, by default, lead to them getting pretty much what they want.

There may be no happy ending here, but if there isn't one, then at least we could say we weren't the ones wilfully stoking the flames on all this.

In that vein, a poll in the Guardian shows that 73% of Tory voters would be happy to see peace unravel in NI if it meant Brexit would proceed. 87% of Leave voters in NI (almost all Unionist) would accept the collapse of the Peace Process in exchange for Brexit. Tallyho!

An Ciarraioch

briany wrote: »

swampgas wrote: »

While I mostly agree with you, isn't it a bit strange that we seem to think that we need to tip-toe around the DUP all the time? It's the same with the UK - don't say anything to upset the Brexiteers in case they freak out.

I think there is a case to be made for pushing back against the DUP and against the Brexiteers, and that means making statements that they simply won't like - and that's the whole point, to let them know we're serious.

There's no point in being needlessly antagonistic. All that's doing is playing into the DUP and Brexiteers' hands. If they can't have everyone thinking their way, then the current division is a pretty good consolation prize as it will, by default, lead to them getting pretty much what they want.

There may be no happy ending here, but if there isn't one, then at least we could say we weren't the ones wilfully stoking the flames on all this.

And here is unequivocal proof of what they want - 87% of NI Leave voters state that they are prepared to see the peace process collapse, so long as Brexit is delivered:

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/brexit/shock-poll-finds-87-of-northern-ireland-leave-voters-say-peace-process-collapse-price-worth-paying-for-brexit-37395306.html

briany

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

And here is unequivocal proof of what they want - 87% of NI Leave voters state that they are prepared to see the peace process collapse, so long as Brexit is delivered:

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/brexit/shock-poll-finds-87-of-northern-ireland-leave-voters-say-peace-process-collapse-price-worth-paying-for-brexit-37395306.html

They should have had a follow-up question on that about what's to be gained from Brexit that would make a collapse of the Peace Process worthwhile.

PopePalpatine

demfad wrote: »

Abe had a meeting with Trump 12 days ago. I would be suprised if these remarks are not the result of a request by Trump.

It's just words by Abe, a few breaths. It has the word 'Pacific' in it for a reason. UK should be in the trade pact with the word 'European' in it for obvious reasons.

It'll be fine, shure the UK has some territories and colonies ther- oh, wait, they don't.

trellheim

and scotland and wales looking for backstops now lol plaid and SNP bandwagoning, cant blame them as the shape becomes clear

Havockk

swampgas wrote: »

Fair enough, I'll defer to your greater experience on this one.

Your instincts are correct. The DUP have been treated like the proverbial child in the pram. It's near time the toys were not handed back to them for surely now it is clear that any shade of green, no matter how light will offend them.

flatty

trellheim wrote: »

and scotland and wales looking for backstops now lol plaid and SNP bandwagoning, cant blame them as the shape becomes clear

It's fair enough the Scots wanting reassurances, they overwhelmingly voted remain. Wales can go sh1te in a hat.

Enzokk

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If they torpedo May's deal, force an election and win, then they own brexit.

If it is a disaster (and it will be) they will get the blame. Not from you or me or the EU, our opinions won't matter; the British public will blame them.

The Tories and the UK press will scream non-stop that Corbyn sabotaged the wonderful Tory Brexit which May negotiated, and that this new Labour Brexit is an abomination.

So they would want to be very, very careful about bring may down at the last minute of brexit talks.

No they won't, just like the Tories haven't owned the financial crises. It wasn't Labour that called a referendum and it wasn't a Labour PM that started the process of leaving the EU. I don't see how they will be blamed, even by the terrible standards of the gutter press.

I think it is clear for everyone that Brexit is not going to be a success. Even JRM stated that the benefits would not be felt for probably 50 years so the pretense of a wonderful Brexit being around the corner is for the fantasists. For people on the streets they will worry about their payday money and the NHS and if Brexit impacts that even more they will quickly walk back on it. Just like a UI will be an economical decision. It is easy to say you are prepared to accept job losses and hardship but actually doing it is different.

You can see this with the Conservatives and their rebels. They talk about doing what it right for the people but when it comes down to it it is party before anything else. People will put their own welfare ahead of anything.

briany

trellheim wrote: »

and scotland and wales looking for backstops now lol plaid and SNP bandwagoning, cant blame them as the shape becomes clear

Brexiteers: Scotland already voted to stay in the UK

...That was before a massive change in the UK's circumstances was foisted upon them, though. I think a lot of Brexiteers are terrified that the UK could break up in the wake of Brexit and this would compound the potential economic maelstrom they're already facing.

trellheim

Speaking at her Scottish National Party (SNP) conference in Glasgow, Sturgeon said such an arrangement would put Scotland at a disadvantage to Northern Ireland, a comment underlining strains between the United Kingdom’s four nations over the Brexit vote.

Asked if a version of the Irish backstop should apply to Scotland, she told Sky News: “That would be my position.”

“If we are looking down the road to a situation where Belfast is still in the single market, and Glasgow is not, then any responsible first minister of Scotland is going to say ‘that’s a big worry for us’.”

Faisal Islam covering ,


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Do_N4NEW0AAMjHz.jpg

Nicola sounding somewhat intelligent ...


https://twitter.com/faisalislam

A Dub in Glasgo

briany wrote: »

Brexiteers: Scotland already voted to stay in the UK

...That was before a massive change in the UK's circumstances was foisted upon them, though. I think a lot of Brexiteers are terrified that the UK could break up in the wake of Brexit and this would compound the potential economic maelstrom they're already facing.

Just over 2 weeks before the referendum in 2014 (Better Together was the No campaign - Tory, Labour, Lib Dem, UKIP etc)

https://twitter.com/uk_together/status/506899714923843584?lang=en


From March as there is a pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/846758989899714560

hill16bhoy

Enzokk wrote: »

No they won't, just like the Tories haven't owned the financial crises. It wasn't Labour that called a referendum and it wasn't a Labour PM that started the process of leaving the EU. I don't see how they will be blamed, even by the terrible standards of the gutter press.

You greatly underestimate the gutter nature of the Tory press if you think Labour wouldn't be blamed.

trellheim

You greatly underestimate the gutter nature of the Tory press if you think Labour wouldn't be blamed.

Dont forget, the Sun switched to supporting Tony Blair at the end of John Major's Govt. But yes, Dacre and Rothermere would be all up in that.

badtoro

On the poll favouring collapse of the peace process. Over the years I've seen comments from people living in Britain regarding NI that they'd love to see the BA go again with the IRA. They see the IRA as a defeated army. Their reasoning being that the world has moved a long way since the 90's. Particularly after 9/11 there's a new narrative on terrorism. Would we see such things as collections in Boston, which ultimately ended up in IRA coffers etc. They also note, and I'm not sure I disagree one iota, that technology has moved on massively. Precision drone strikes on Osama Bin Paddy in Bandit Country, internet and mobile phone snooping, much more advanced detection sensors of all kinds, the list is fairly long. I doubt we'd see a conflict resembling anything like the one previous.

swampgas

badtoro wrote: »

On the poll favouring collapse of the peace process. Over the years I've seen comments from people living in Britain regarding NI that they'd love to see the BA go again with the IRA. They see the IRA as a defeated army. Their reasoning being that the world has moved a long way since the 90's. Particularly after 9/11 there's a new narrative on terrorism. Would we see such things as collections in Boston, which ultimately ended up in IRA coffers etc. They also note, and I'm not sure I disagree one iota, that technology has moved on massively. Precision drone strikes on Osama Bin Paddy in Bandit Country, internet and mobile phone snooping, much more advanced detection sensors of all kinds, the list is fairly long. I doubt we'd see a conflict resembling anything like the one previous.

Technology works both ways. An off-the-shelf drone with some semtex or a grenade attached could be flown to a target remotely or autonomously using GPS navigation, in a way that would have been unthinkable 20 years ago.

briany

badtoro wrote: »

Precision drone strikes on Osama Bin Paddy in Bandit Country

Precision mortar strikes on Number 10.

A Dub in Glasgo

swampgas wrote: »

Technology works both ways. An off-the-shelf drone with some semtex or a grenade attached could be flown to a target remotely or autonomously using GPS navigation, in a way that would have been unthinkable 20 years ago.

Especially when you read something like this

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/britain-takes-on-russias-military-might-with-fleet-of-1-000-drones-htvhqpq9s

Akrasia

briany wrote: »

Brexiteers: Scotland already voted to stay in the UK

...That was before a massive change in the UK's circumstances was foisted upon them, though. I think a lot of Brexiteers are terrified that the UK could break up in the wake of Brexit and this would compound the potential economic maelstrom they're already facing.

During the Scottish independence referendum, the remain side made a huge deal about how Scotland would lose EU membership if they left GB. It's incredibly dishonest that those same people are saying that the people only who voted to remain in GB because they wanted to stay in the EU, have agreed to leave the EU because they voted to remain in GB

prinzeugen

Akrasia wrote: »

During the Scottish independence referendum, the remain side made a huge deal about how Scotland would lose EU membership if they left GB. It's incredibly dishonest that those same people are saying that the people only who voted to remain in GB because they wanted to stay in the EU, have agreed to leave the EU because they voted to remain in GB

Scotland can't lose its EU membership as its not a member. The UK is/was.

The SNP claims that the majority of Scottish people want to remain in the EU are not 100% correct.

Only 41/6% of eligible voters wanted to remain in the EU. The rest voted leave or didn't vote for whatever reason.

41.6% is not a majority. And the SNP need to realise that a vote to remain does not translate into a vote for independence.

Christy42

badtoro wrote: »

On the poll favouring collapse of the peace process. Over the years I've seen comments from people living in Britain regarding NI that they'd love to see the BA go again with the IRA. They see the IRA as a defeated army. Their reasoning being that the world has moved a long way since the 90's. Particularly after 9/11 there's a new narrative on terrorism. Would we see such things as collections in Boston, which ultimately ended up in IRA coffers etc. They also note, and I'm not sure I disagree one iota, that technology has moved on massively. Precision drone strikes on Osama Bin Paddy in Bandit Country, internet and mobile phone snooping, much more advanced detection sensors of all kinds, the list is fairly long. I doubt we'd see a conflict resembling anything like the one previous.

A drone strike on the island of Ireland would have the world on their backs. It would cause a massive amount of issues and probably break up the union by itself as the IRA would get massive support instantly. They can't use that tech here. The tracking they can.

The IRA did and will depend on local support. Tech has moved on but no one else has really fought against another force like the IRA. Isis was small cells but still concentrated in an active warzone so unless they turn ni into syria it needs a different game plan.

On the other hand if the IRA got no local support they would dissolve quickly in such a fight as they would have little place to hide. They can't use ISIS tactics either as they need the local populace (or half of it) on their side.

Professor Moriarty

prinzeugen wrote: »

Scotland can't lose its EU membership as its not a member. The UK is/was.

The SNP claims that the majority of Scottish people want to remain in the EU are not 100% correct.

Only 41/6% of eligible voters wanted to remain in the EU. The rest voted leave or didn't vote for whatever reason.

41.6% is not a majority. And the SNP need to realise that a vote to remain does not translate into a vote for independence.

Hang on, as in any vote, it's the people who vote that matter. Those who don't vote don't count. Of the votes cast, 62% were for remain. Therefore it is completely legitimate to say that a majority want to remain. There is no other metric.

Water John

Are we back counting those who didn't vote, on your preferred side?
Never saw that in studying democracy.

When they say the UK voted 52% to 48% in favour of Brexit, where did they put those that didn't vote?

charlie14

badtoro wrote: »

On the poll favouring collapse of the peace process. Over the years I've seen comments from people living in Britain regarding NI that they'd love to see the BA go again with the IRA. They see the IRA as a defeated army. Their reasoning being that the world has moved a long way since the 90's. Particularly after 9/11 there's a new narrative on terrorism. Would we see such things as collections in Boston, which ultimately ended up in IRA coffers etc. They also note, and I'm not sure I disagree one iota, that technology has moved on massively. Precision drone strikes on Osama Bin Paddy in Bandit Country, internet and mobile phone snooping, much more advanced detection sensors of all kinds, the list is fairly long. I doubt we'd see a conflict resembling anything like the one previous.

The NI troubles of the late 20th. century had their roots in the denial of civil (and political rights through gerrymandering) by unionism, and was exacerbated by the British government, in the view of nationalists, sending in the army to support the unionist regime. With the DUP again acting as if their good old days are back, should trouble again flare up and the British army are sent in, then I wouldn`t see any difference in the NI nationalist view from then or the collections in the U.S.

As others have said technology is a double edged sword, and when you look at urban areas where the vast majority of the population of that particular area oppose such an army, then its benefits have been shown as negligible.
Thanks too the policies of pre-troubles unionist regimes in creating nationalist ghettos there is no shortage of such areas in NI.

prinzeugen

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Hang on, as in any vote, it's the people who vote that matter. Those who don't vote don't count. Of the votes cast, 62% were for remain. Therefore it is completely legitimate to say that a majority want to remain. There is no other metric.

The SNP seldom use the word "voted". The usual statement is "The people of Scotland want to remain in the EU". That is incorrect.

What they should be saying is "The majority of people that voted wanted to remain in the EU". This is correct.

Thats the point I am making.

Professor Moriarty

prinzeugen wrote: »

The SNP seldom use the word "voted". The usual statement is "The people of Scotland want to remain in the EU". That is incorrect.

What they should be saying is "The majority of people that voted wanted to remain in the EU". This is correct.

Thats the point I am making.

Your point doesn't stand up though. Those who didn't vote are irrelevant and their opinion is unknown. This is true of all votes, as I said there is no other metric. Therefore the opinion of those who voted is the only opinion that matters and is the only opinion that is known. 62% voted remain, ergo a majority of Scots want to remain.

Peregrinus

prinzeugen wrote: »

Scotland can't lose its EU membership as its not a member. The UK is/was.

The SNP claims that the majority of Scottish people want to remain in the EU are not 100% correct.

Only 41/6% of eligible voters wanted to remain in the EU. The rest voted leave or didn't vote for whatever reason.

By this reasoning, there's no UK-wide majority for Brexit, then, is there?

prinzeugen wrote: »

The SNP seldom use the word "voted". The usual statement is "The people of Scotland want to remain in the EU". That is incorrect.

What they should be saying is "The majority of people that voted wanted to remain in the EU". This is correct.

Thats the point I am making.

Have you made the same point about Brexit? Can you link us to a post where you make that point?

Junkyard Tom

prinzeugen wrote: »

And the SNP need to realise that a vote to remain does not translate into a vote for independence.

Give it time.

Cookie_Monster

N Sturgeon wrote:

“If we are looking down the road to a situation where Belfast is still in the single market, and Glasgow is not, then any responsible first minister of Scotland is going to say ‘that’s a big worry for us’.”

What's with the reference to Glasgow rather than Edinburgh?
Apologies for the rather OT trivial question, just strikes me as an odd one.

Peregrinus

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

What's with the reference to Glasgow rather than Edinburgh?
Apologies for the rather OT trivial question, just strikes me as an odd one.

Glasgow is Scotland's biggest city and is the centre of its industry and commerce. So if you're making a point about the single market, Glasgow is likely to be a better illustration of that point than Edinburgh. Edinburgh is more about government, history and culture. Of the two cities, Glasgow has a lot more similarities to Belfast than Edinburgh does.

Plus, Sturgeon herself grew up in and around Glasgow, went to Glasgow University, lived and worked in Glasgow before entering politics, and sits for a Glasgow constituency.