Brexit discussion thread IV

_Puma_

flatty wrote: »

What does that mean?

The DUP tail wagging the Tory Dog.

breatheme

If May can keep her hand to her chest until the last minute she might be able to pass a NI backstop through parliament with the help of Labour.

kuro68k

flatty wrote: »

What does that mean?

They don't want to publish what would be an inflammatory document. All focus is on getting a deal and not needing the backstop.

Enzokk

kuro68k wrote: »

They don't want to publish what would be an inflammatory document. All focus is on getting a deal and not needing the backstop.

We will not know what deal they will have with the EU and whether a border will be needed until after the negotiations has been done. This will only be started after they leave on 29 March 2019 so they will need to publish it at some time. Better to do it early because if there is a breakdown due to it at least that will allow time for a contingency with either a new plan or elections if that is needed.

endabob1

prawnsambo wrote: »

Daniel Hannan is extraordinarily stupid. Or extraordinarily disingenuous. I'm going with the former having read some of his tweets.



Like this one

My personal favourite Daniel Moment

https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/666954840313085952

Leroy42

Spook_ie wrote: »

But they wouldn't be joining a union they would be joining a trading pact, people keep forgetting that the EU wants closer political union, something many in the UK don't want, they would love a trading partnership with the EU but not an ever closer political one.

And who makes the rules for this trading pack? Any deal requires the given up of something, as they are finding out in terms of Brexit.

Brexit, at least from the EU side, has shown how important political union is. The UK were very quick (rightly too, I merely am using it to make a point) to ask for European countries to back them, politically, with regards to the Russia chemical attacks in the UK. Was that a loss of sovereignty for Germany & France?

Dymo

Brits invented all the best things:
football → Correct
TV → Debatable
Internet → US army, hes thinking of www and Tim berners lee
penicillin → correct
DNA → I'll give it to him, it was discovered by 2 UK scientists
sandwiches → Gave the name, people have been eating things between bread for years
parliament → That's because its called that in the UK, the Romans called it the senate
USA → Christopher Columbus?

trellheim

Former Brexit Secretary David Davis is on maneuvers, publishing a letter to fellow Tory lawmakers warning them that unless the party drops May’s Brexit plan and goes for a Canada-style free-trade deal, voters will punish them at the next election.

Davis’s letter argues that the Irish border problem can be solved by officials in Northern Irish ports checking goods coming from Britain -- and he says the DUP supports this.

His record in forecasting elections isn’t flawless: He was among those urging May to call last year’s snap vote, which cost her her majority. Though he blames that on the campaign.

The EU hasn’t set next week as a final deadline, though it has said if there’s insufficient progress then on the Irish backstop, it will not schedule an emergency November summit for the deal to be finalized.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-09/eu-envoys-said-to-plan-pre-summit-meeting-oct-12-brexit-update

Professor Moriarty

Dymo wrote: »

Brits invented all the best things:
football → Correct
TV → Debatable
Internet → US army, hes thinking of www and Tim berners lee
penicillin → correct
DNA → I'll give it to him, it was discovered by 2 UK scientists
sandwiches → Gave the name, people have been eating things between bread for years
parliament → That's because its called that in the UK, the Romans called it the senate
USA → Christopher Columbus?

The USA was founded by people whose primary goal was to create a state independent of Britain. Much the same reason as the Republic of Ireland was founded. For Hannan to suggest that Britain 'invented the USA' is ignorant, stupid and insulting.

storker

Spook_ie wrote: »

But they wouldn't be joining a union they would be joining a trading pact, people keep forgetting that the EU wants closer political union, something many in the UK don't want, they would love a trading partnership with the EU but not an ever closer political one.

They could have their trading partnership with the EU if they accepted freedom of movement and EU standards, but they don't want those either.

keane2097

Dymo wrote: »

Brits invented all the best things:
football → Correct
TV → Debatable
Internet → US army, hes thinking of www and Tim berners lee
penicillin → correct
DNA → I'll give it to him, it was discovered by 2 UK scientists
sandwiches → Gave the name, people have been eating things between bread for years
parliament → That's because its called that in the UK, the Romans called it the senate
USA → Christopher Columbus?

A Chinese game called cuju (蹴鞠) has been recognised by FIFA as the first version of the game with regular rules. It existed during the Han dynasty and possibly the Qin dynasty, in the second and third centuries BC.

I bet that one stings the most.

An Ciarraioch

Dymo wrote: »

Brits invented all the best things:
football → Correct
TV → Debatable
Internet → US army, hes thinking of www and Tim berners lee
penicillin → correct
DNA → I'll give it to him, it was discovered by 2 UK scientists
sandwiches → Gave the name, people have been eating things between bread for years
parliament → That's because its called that in the UK, the Romans called it the senate
USA → Christopher Columbus?

Even football has a Chinese predecessor, but the English undoubtedly codified the game.

eire4

catrionanic wrote: »

If that is the case, she underestimates the DUP. They are far too pig-headed to vote in the national interest, should the national interest in any way threaten their perceived Britishness. They will absolutely favour a no deal crash out over an Irish sea border.

She needs to find ten allies from elsewhere, to replace her ten DUP nutters.

As crazy as the above is I cannot disagree at all. The DUP live in a whole different dimension it seems and I have no doubt the above is spot on.

trellheim

If all you care about is maintaining the Union then the DUP cannot be considered crazy at all.

ancapailldorcha

trellheim wrote: »

If all you care about is maintaining the Union then the DUP cannot be considered crazy at all.

Quite the opposite, IMO. The status quo preserved the Union. The DUP campaigned to effectively shatter that.

Zubeneschamali

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The status quo preserved the Union. The DUP campaigned to effectively shatter that.

And of the options on the table, a hard border with the Republic is most likely to restart moves for a United Ireland, while NI staying in the Single Market as a Special Zone within the UK is most likely to keep everyone happy with the Union.

So the DUP are still arguing for the worst longterm option for preserving the Union.

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

And of the options on the table, a hard border with the Republic is most likely to restart moves for a United Ireland, while NI staying in the Single Market as a Special Zone within the UK is most likely to keep everyone happy with the Union.

So the DUP are still arguing for the worst longterm option for preserving the Union.

If they agree to the Backstop, they are effectively saying that NI is staying within the EU, and thus closer in trade terms to ROI than the UK.

Whilst you may well be right that they plan may end up with a UI, it is 100% certain that the option of a backstop removes them, both physically and emotionally, from the UK. They are betting that 80 years of a hard border didn't split them before, why would it now.

trellheim

Quite the opposite, IMO. The status quo preserved the Union. The DUP campaigned to effectively shatter that

Not in their view. I am not arguing that it is rational, far from it.

Junkyard Tom

Leroy42 wrote: »

They are betting that 80 years of a hard border didn't split them before, why would it now.

1. Now they're a minority.
2. The North lags behind the rest of Ireland with regards to rights
3. A majority in the North are being dragged out of the EU against their will.
4. The GFA provides for unification of Ireland which resolves points 2 and 3 above.

Capt'n Midnight

Dymo wrote: »

Brits invented all the best things:
football → Correct
TV → Debatable
Internet → US army, hes thinking of www and Tim berners lee
penicillin → correct
DNA → I'll give it to him, it was discovered by 2 UK scientists
sandwiches → Gave the name, people have been eating things between bread for years
parliament → That's because its called that in the UK, the Romans called it the senate
USA → Christopher Columbus?

DNA ? Linus Pauling was on one of several teams chasing down the structure. He was the one who had published a helical structure for protein earlier. It's almost certain one of the other teams would have found the structure shortly anyway.

As for the two English scientists ? Possibly right, but for the wrong reasons.
It was Rosalind Franklin who did the essential work on the structure, Watson and Crick just had access to her data that the other teams didn't.
And earlier it was Frederick Griffith who proved that DNA rather than a protein carried inheritance.

But you know Brexit and facts..

Also
TV was not a UK invention. While John Logie Baird was Scottish his mechanical system was a dead end technology and not used later.

The radio equivalent would be the Alexanderson alternator. It worked but it was insane, to get radio frequency without valves you spin a 200KW generator at 20,000 rpm with very tight clearances and lots of preparation. And if anything goes wrong you'll have to deal with tons of shrapnel going everywhere at two thirds the speed sound. Bit like Brexit really.

Capt'n Midnight

catrionanic wrote: »

If that is the case, she underestimates the DUP. They are far too pig-headed to vote in the national interest, should the national interest in any way threaten their perceived Britishness. They will absolutely favour a no deal crash out over an Irish sea border.

She needs to find ten allies from elsewhere, to replace her ten DUP nutters.

Offer Scottish independence to the SNP ?

Offer PR to the Lib Dems ?

Offer United Ireland AND Welsh Independence to get SF and Plaid , ditching Wales means less Labour MP's.

Of course the numerous U turns of the recent past mean that it would be very difficult for anyone to believe in such promises. And if the Tories aren't propped up such things may be more likely anyway.

jm08

endabob1 wrote: »

My personal favourite Daniel Moment

https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/666954840313085952

I wonder does Ms Pengelly still support this?

E Little-Pengelly MP‏Verified account @little_pengelly 27 Nov 2017




Replying to @DanielJHannan
Best solution is for eu to grant ROI special status to allow them to work in & trade with their single biggest trading partner, the UK. This removes any NI/ROI border issue & recognises historic relationship & trade between Ireland, NI & GB

jm08

Spook_ie wrote: »

But they wouldn't be joining a union they would be joining a trading pact, people keep forgetting that the EU wants closer political union, something many in the UK don't want, they would love a trading partnership with the EU but not an ever closer political one.

And the UK has a veto (as does Ireland and everyone else) on a closer union. It was never going to be forced on them.

J Mysterio

While all his stuff about who invented what is amusing, its an irrelevant sideshow. People like Hannan are grasping at straws. They are insecure, so they are dipping into the nationalistic well to show how 'great' Britain is.

Its neither here nor there and just shows that they dont have a plan they can stand over. The Brexit leaders dont know what they are doing and don't know what to do about it.

Capt'n Midnight

endabob1 wrote: »

My personal favourite Daniel Moment

https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/666954840313085952

94 years ?

It's not even 19 years since they started to remove the security posts with their kill zones. Always a bit apprehensive going through them.


PSNI’s border policing shopping list: 300 extra officers and four bases


The PSNI has confirmed it has halted the sale of three border police stations as a "precautionary step" over Brexit.

trellheim

So Simon Coveney has confirmed backstop texts will only be in the negotiating room. Like that's not going to leak.

trellheim

Followon : Raab has just spoke in commons

Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab up in Commons making a statement on Brexit progress after Salzburg - confirms unilateral guarantee for 3m EU citizens in UK

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1049696583229558785


TOOK YOU LONG FKING ENOUGH

Excuse the language, that includes us as well you see

Capt'n Midnight

Enzokk wrote: »

Japan has offered the UK access to the TPP. This would be huge for the UK, the EU already has or is busy negotiating deals with 9 of the 11 nations in the TPP and the UK will not have access to the EU if they can join the TPP, but a win is a win no matter how small I suppose.

To get TPP membership they need more than Japan to agree, and what would the UK have to do to convince the others ?

Also it's not much help to the UK car makers, looks like they get less than they'd get automatically with the EU-Japan deal or EU-Canada deal.
http://international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/cptpp-ptpgp/overview-apercu.aspx?lang=eng

Canada’s 6.1% tariff on passenger vehicle imports will be phased out over four years, through five annual back-end loaded cuts to retain greater tariff protection during the first two years—higher protection than in the Canada-Korea FTA and CETA.

RobertKK

http://uk.businessinsider.com/rat-hairs-and-maggots-may-warned-of-reality-of-us-brexit-trade-deal-2018-10

LONDON — Insect-filled chocolates, rat hair-infested noodles, and orange juice containing maggots are just some of the "horrors" UK consumers could be forced to accept if post-Brexit Britain signs a wide-ranging trade deal with the USA.

In the US, producers adhere to a "Defects Levels Handbook," which sets out the maximum number of foreign bodies like maggots, insect fragments and mould that can be in food products before they are put on the market.

For example, US producers are allowed to include up to 30 insect fragments in a 100-gram jar of peanut butter; as well as 11 rodent hairs in a 25-gram container of paprika; or 3 milligrams of mammalian excreta (typically rat or mouse excrement) per each pound of ginger.

I do think this is a scare tactic type article.

An Ciarraioch

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Enzokk wrote: »

Japan has offered the UK access to the TPP. This would be huge for the UK, the EU already has or is busy negotiating deals with 9 of the 11 nations in the TPP and the UK will not have access to the EU if they can join the TPP, but a win is a win no matter how small I suppose.

To get TPP membership they need more than Japan to agree, and what would the UK have to do to convince the others ?

Also it's not much help to the UK car makers, looks like they get less than they'd get automatically with the EU-Japan deal or EU-Canada deal.
http://international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/cptpp-ptpgp/overview-apercu.aspx?lang=eng

Canada’s 6.1% tariff on passenger vehicle imports will be phased out over four years, through five annual back-end loaded cuts to retain greater tariff protection during the first two years—higher protection than in the Canada-Korea FTA and CETA.

Also experiencing some problems with the WTO negotiations:

https://mobile.twitter.com/CoppetainPU/status/1049712858462937089