Brexit discussion thread IV

Hurrache

A good article here titled

Everything you need to know about the final weeks of Brexit in five minutes

that's worth a read

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/10/10/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-final-weeks-of-brexit

kuro68k

Charles Babbage wrote: »

There is also the SNP. Do they oppose a special deal for NI because they don't get it also or do they support the concept of a special deal as it provides a precendent for differences in the UK?

If NI gets a different deal then they will surely demand the same for Scotland, and when they don't get it use that to push for independence.

Enzokk

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

They already had an election, were hit hard by voters and lost their majority.

Good catch, I should have said they will lose their status as the party in the HoC with the most MP's.

J Mysterio

Hurrache wrote: »

A good article here titled that's worth a read

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/10/10/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-final-weeks-of-brexit

Dunt is hilarious.

I'm not an expert, but her party won't accept Chequers and this goes further than that, so it's not looking good.

Right. At the moment, the DUP, hardline Tory Brexiters, Labour and all other opposition parties say they'll vote against it.

That sounds like game over to me.

Do it with the proper voice and everything.

Game over, man, game over.

Nice...
____

He breaks the thing down very well though and in a dialectic/ conversational way which can be parsed.

Hurrache

BBC reporting that the DUP will vote against May's budget if any agreement with the EU contravenes any of their red lines. May really made a balls of getting into bed with them.

An Ciarraioch

Robert Peston claims the Border has been solved - going by his tweets, it should satisfy our government, but Arlene is another matter:

http://twitter.com/Peston/status/1049989071718805505

lawred2

J Mysterio wrote: »

Dunt is hilarious.

I'm not an expert, but her party won't accept Chequers and this goes further than that, so it's not looking good.

Right. At the moment, the DUP, hardline Tory Brexiters, Labour and all other opposition parties say they'll vote against it.

That sounds like game over to me.

Do it with the proper voice and everything.

Game over, man, game over.

Nice...
____

He breaks the thing down very well though and in a dialectic/ conversational way which can be parsed.

and this stuff which would be more scary than amusing

How could I forget the halcyon days of… (the European Union Withdrawal Act)

Yeah, yeah. Well, it had some sneaky little beasties in it called statutory instruments. These allowed ministers to pass laws without bills. It basically turned them into little mini parliaments, with emergency powers to put a law on the statute book just like that.

Are there really no safeguards against that?

All they need to do is say that it is urgent, which given the circumstances it will be, and that it is within the scope of the Act, which it will also be. MPs and Lords have 28 days to launch a challenge, but there's very little they can really do about it.


Brilliant :rolleyes:

briany

Brexit negotiations seem like a bit like Groundhog day, or maybe a Groundhog weekend since it's really a repeating story of 2 days.

Day 1: EU and UK officials near a deal

Day 2: No-deal looking likely

Repeat

&

Repeat

&

Repeat

LuckyLloyd

briany wrote: »

Brexit negotiations seem like a bit like Groundhog day, or maybe a Groundhog weekend since it's really a repeating story of 2 days.

Day 1: EU and UK officials near a deal

Day 2: No-deal looking likely

Repeat

&

Repeat

&

Repeat

Except the recent couple of weeks we've begun to hear noises about deals that would be acceptable to the EU (Canada + or NI SM / UK CU backstop).

megatron989

Plenty of rumblings of deals but nothing with a chance of getting past the DUP. I just can't see how any of the rumoured options will work.

Spook_ie

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No-one is threatening to do that. It is an internal border so the EU don't care, and the UK don't even plan to scrutinize people crossing from outside the UK, never mind inside.

But that's the problem it isn't an internal border it's an international border, an internal border would be Co. Meath to Co. Louth etc.

Zubeneschamali

Spook_ie wrote: »

But that's the problem it isn't an internal border it's an international border, an internal border would be Co. Meath to Co. Louth etc.

Belfast to Scotland is not an international border, and won't be after Brexit until the Scots declare independence.

FrancieBrady

megatron989 wrote: »

Plenty of rumblings of deals but nothing with a chance of getting past the DUP. I just can't see how any of the rumoured options will work.

The DUP can be bought and have sold themselves before. If there is enough of a fudge or room in the deal that allows them to spin a narrative were they got the best deal by being belligerent then they will fold if the price is right.

Never Never Neve....ah sure go on. :rolleyes:

Econ__

seamus wrote: »

For people like me, whose brain is melted by different phrases, I've tried to piece together what a UK CU + NI SM is supposed to mean;

UK customs union: Means that the UK is tied to the EU for all customs rules; goods travelling in and out of the jurisdiction. This means that for goods arriving the UK, things basically don't change. The UK applies excise/tarriffs to the goods, and then they're free to travel on into the EU.

Northern Ireland single market: Northern Ireland basically acts like it's in the EU. People, money, goods and services are free to move between NI and the EU.

What does the UK get from this? Import/Export of goods basically remains unaffected. And they get to piggyback on the EU's trade agreements for good import/export.

What does the EU get from this? Well, the Northern Ireland issue is "fixed" for one. Goods will be allowed to flow freely in and out of Northern Ireland, and border checks will only be necessary on people travelling between NI and the UK. It also means that the UK will not be allowed negotiate its own trade deals for goods, and will likely still be subject to EU rules and standards.

There would be a substantial boon for NI in this: a company could operate a "dual-footed" base in Belfast providing services into the EU and the UK. Chances are there'd be some level of rules requiring the revenue to be split, but that's just moving numbers around on a spreadsheet. A company in Dublin couldn't sell services into the UK without paying extra tarriffs on their business.

Of course, I could be wrong about the whole lot above; anyone who knows more please correct me!

Most of what you say is correct, however the part that I've bolded is a common misunderstanding.

NI would not stay in the full Single Market - they would stay in it for goods only.

They would lose service passporting rights and freedom of movement would end. It's envisaged that EU27 nationals in Ireland could visit Northern Ireland as they wish, but would have to go through the same visa processes as they would do for GB if they want to work or live there.

But that's cherry picking and splitting the four freedoms? Yes. But the EU have agreed to it on account of the unique circumstances on the island of Ireland whilst also calculating that Northern Ireland is so small as to not pose a serious risk to the integrity of the Single Market (they have a similar arrangement with Lichtenstein). The EU have effectively proposed that NI will operate under only the EU rules that are necessary to avoid additional physical infrastructure and protect a defined scope of North-South cooperation under the terms of the GFA.

demfad

Catch up on likely permutations for remainder of Brexit by Ian Dunt.

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/10/10/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-final-weeks-of-brexit

briany

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Belfast to Scotland is not an international border, and won't be after Brexit until the Scots declare independence.

Not an international border, but if NI remains as, essentially, a part of the EU, it's tough to see how that doesn't represent an internal border, and potentially quite a tangible one at that.

One of the big red lines for the UK is no freedom of movement. The UK can decide not to scrutinise people coming from NI to the UK, but if the papers start running with the story that EU nationals are using this to cross into the UK, you have the potential to unravel what would already have been a tenuous agreement.

Zubeneschamali

demfad wrote: »

Catch up on likely permutations for remainder of Brexit by Ian Dunt.

Dunt making a very big mountain out of the simple fact that reality is setting in as the deadline approaches.

Pretty clear that it'll be UK in a CU, NI in the SM for goods as a backstop, backstop labelled Temporary (i.e to be replaced by Unicorn Cake later), Future relationship to be Canada++ disguised in waffle about deepness and closeness.

DUP, Labour and ERG to be dared to pass it or crash out in March.

WA agreed by November, sighs of relief all round, into Transitional Period in March (i.e. nothing happens), and start into new 5 year negotiations on the Future Relationship.

Zubeneschamali

briany wrote: »

One of the big red lines for the UK is no freedom of movement. The UK can decide not to scrutinise people coming from NI to the UK, but if the papers start running with the story that EU nationals are using this to cross into the UK, you have the potential to unravel what would already have been a tenuous agreement.

The UK are not even going to scrutinize people coming directly from the Continent, never mind NI. They have said this all along.

Hurrache

Barnier suggesting the agreement is that NI will be within the single market

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1050035389363351553

trellheim

Arlene threatening to vote against the Tories in the Budget

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1050019082576244736

cue joker from Batman "and here..we..go"

briany

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The UK are not even going to scrutinize people coming directly from the Continent, never mind NI. They have said this all along.

That'll be an interesting concept to sell to those who took up on UKIP's "breaking point" poster.

But if people will be as free to travel between NI and GB in a backstop scenario, what is the DUP's problem? From a neutral position of argument, how well-founded would their fears of being cut off, economically, from the rest of the UK be? Or is it a position based purely in ideology?

Zubeneschamali

briany wrote: »

what is the DUP's problem?

[takes a deep breath...] Oh, wait, you just mean with this proposal.

Their problem is that NI will be in the Single Market for goods, so it will be in the EU rules regime, while the UK will be the Wild West with no rules, making brilliant trade deals with the US which NI will not be able to join.

So no border with the Republic, a border (for goods) with GB, almost as if NI were part of Ireland and not the UK.

Blanco100

briany wrote: »

That'll be an interesting concept to sell to those who took up on UKIP's "breaking point" poster.

But if people will be as free to travel between NI and GB in a backstop scenario, what is the DUP's problem? From a neutral position of argument, how well-founded would their fears of being cut off, economically, from the rest of the UK be? Or is it a position based purely in ideology?

id imagine NI are being offered the best of both worlds, remaining part of UK and all that entails, aswell as access to single EU market.

its pure ideology.

If Britain starved then she would want NI to starve despite NI being afforded a great opportunity.

anything that brings them closer to ourselves they will reject

briany

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

[takes a deep breath...] Oh, wait, you just mean with this proposal.

Their problem is that NI will be in the Single Market for goods, so it will be in the EU rules regime, while the UK will be the Wild West with no rules, making brilliant trade deals with the US which NI will not be able to join.

So no border with the Republic, a border (for goods) with GB, almost as if NI were part of Ireland and not the UK.

If only the DUP could be a bit more pragmatic on this. They have no way to know how brilliant any UK trade deals will be. Agreeing on a backstop until a mutually agreeable technological solution is found would insulate them from the worst effects of Brexit, especially a no-deal. On the other hand, if Brexit is a roaring economic success, there's time to figure out how to make checks on this island workable.

Point being that it would probably be in their interest, if they weren't so stubborn, to accept a temporary 'soft annexation', rather than risk a unification if no-deal comes about and the UK's economy goes into the toilet, and pragmatic Unionists are suddenly rethinking their allegiance.

Blanco100

briany wrote: »

If only the DUP could be a bit more pragmatic on this. They have no way to know how brilliant any UK trade deals will be. Agreeing on a backstop until a mutually agreeable technological solution is found would insulate them from the worst effects of Brexit, especially a no-deal. On the other hand, if Brexit is a roaring economic success, there's time to figure out how to make checks on this island workable.

Point being that it would probably be in their interest, if they weren't so stubborn, to accept a temporary 'soft annexation', rather than risk a unification if no-deal comes about and the UK's economy goes into the toilet, and pragmatic Unionists are suddenly rethinking their allegiance.

This is absolutely spot on. If they had any sense they would see its a win win situation but they need to take off their "us and them glasses" first.

Larbre34

"Checks will also have to be carried out on all animals and food passing over the Northern Ireland border with the Republic of Ireland, up from the existing 10% quota" - Barnier

All. Sorry Michel, that is effectively a full border and will ruin supply chain logistics for live and perishable product.

Forget the DUP, I don't think our Government or Sinn Féin or the farmers and factories in both jurisdictions will accept that.

Silent Running

Blanco100 wrote: »

This is absolutely spot on. If they had any sense they would see its a win win situation but they need to take off their "us and them glasses" first.

This is the problem with the DUP. They aren't wearing "us and them" glasses. That stuff is in their blood. They don't know any other way to operate. The hatred of "them'uns" runs so deep that they are incapable of turning it off. I doubt there's a bung big enough to overcome it.

judeboy101

Larbre34 wrote: »

"Checks will also have to be carried out on all animals and food passing over the Northern Ireland border with the Republic of Ireland, up from the existing 10% quota" - Barnier

All. Sorry Michel, that is effectively a full border and will ruin supply chain logistics for live and perishable product.

Forget the DUP, I don't think our Government or Sinn Féin or the farmers and factories in both jurisdictions will accept that.

That's a hard border. You'll have to check every van, truck and Skoda Fabia for stuff. You can pack a fair bit of meat into a hiace van.

An Ciarraioch

Laura Kuenssberg reports that the UK "inner cabinet" will hold an emergency meeting at 5 p.m. tomorrow on the state of Brexit negotiations ...

Zubeneschamali

Larbre34 wrote: »

"Checks will also have to be carried out on all animals and food passing over the Northern Ireland border with the Republic of Ireland, up from the existing 10% quota" - Barnier

These checks are between NI and GB.