Brexit discussion thread IV

interlocked

"The island of Ireland would have to remain a single epidemiological area, he says."

mayo.mick

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

As we predicted in the last few weeks, the "de-dramatization" by the EU seems to consist of letting the UK spin accepting one of the EUs existing offers as a victory.

But this deal still needs to get through Parliament - the DUP are quite likely to reject it, and Labour will not want to allow May to claim a victory...

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1049996284638187520

trellheim

Arlene was asked straight up if she would vote against the budget as per the above and refused to answer several times.... must be some frantic phonecalls going on.


OTOH

here's Barniers speech a few mins ago to Eurochambres. Google translate is your friend

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-18-6089_en.htm

Dymo

mayo.mick wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1049996284638187520

Let the games begin!

Larbre34

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

These checks are between NI and GB.

Yes I thought it sounded odd, Sky news have corrected the article I quoted directly from, it is the Irish Sea that was meant.

So, it will be the DUP and ERG that are the problem, no wonder Labour centrists are being tapped up to get them through the votes and presumably through the budget as well.

I must admit it would give me no little pleasure to see Arlene flung under the bus.

judeboy101

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

These checks are between NI and GB.

I'll put the pike back into the rafters.

prawnsambo

trellheim wrote: »

Arlene was asked straight up if she would vote against the budget as per the above and refused to answer several times.... must be some frantic phonecalls going on.


OTOH

here's Barniers speech a few mins ago to Eurochambres. Google translate is your friend

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-18-6089_en.htm

I think the majority of it is actually translated on that page. Bar the intro.

Havockk

Blanco100 wrote: »

This is absolutely spot on. If they had any sense they would see its a win win situation but they need to take off their "us and them glasses" first.

What? It's not spot on, it's utterly predictable. The DUP know they are facing a lost majority, this is their endgame play to try and drive the wedge in now before it's too late for them. That's why they would love to get rid of the GFA too, they will want to prevent a border poll at all costs.

BonnieSituation

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Robert Peston claims the Border has been solved - going by his tweets, it should satisfy our government, but Arlene is another matter:

http://twitter.com/Peston/status/1049989071718805505

So since last December it has taken us 10 months to get as far as... last December?

serfboard

trellheim wrote: »

Here's RAAB last night in the HoC

https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2018-10-09/debates/F7F959AD-FE66-4A20-A765-1E3F791C15ED/EUExitNegotiations

From that Hansard:

Hansard wrote:

Nigel Dodds (Belfast North) (DUP)

The idea that the sort of proposals that are floating about from the EU side and, indeed, some officials from our side in Brussels are necessary to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland is complete rubbish. There is already infrastructure on the border

Now Nigel, here is a photo (taken from Google Maps) of Killea in Northern Ireland, and also in the Republic.




See that house just on the left? That's in Northern Ireland. The house next door is in the Republic - in fact you can also see the 50km/h sign confirming it on the right of the photo.

The tiny stream between the two houses is the border.

Now, remind me again, where's that infrastructure?

BonnieSituation

serfboard wrote: »

From that Hansard:


Now Nigel, here is a photo (taken from Google Maps) of Killea in Northern Ireland, and also in the Republic.




See that house just on the left? That's in Northern Ireland. The house next door is in the Republic - in fact you can also see the 50km/h sign confirming it on the right of the photo.

The tiny stream between the two houses is the border.

Now, remind me again, where's that infrastructure?

Pick any of the bajillion crossings. Same thing. Some crackers like in Jonesboro where it splits a house.

Maybe by infrastructure he means the traffic light at the bridge in Clady?

flutered

Hurrache wrote: »

BBC reporting that the DUP will vote against May's budget if any agreement with the EU contravenes any of their red lines. May really made a balls of getting into bed with them.

if may does not agree until november?

clevtrev

flutered wrote: »

if may does not agree until november?

its a pity Sinn Fein wouldnt take a temporary time out from non participation in british politics and cast a few votes in the London parliament to get a decent deal for northern ireland instead of having these DUP dinosaurs dictating the negotiations and inflicting DUP policies on the whole of the North

Imreoir2

clevtrev wrote: »

its a pity Sinn Fein wouldnt take a temporary time out from non participation in british politics and cast a few votes in the London parliament to get a decent deal for northern ireland instead of having these DUP dinosaurs dictating the negotiations and inflicting DUP policies on the whole of the North

It's very unlikely they would be able to do that.

clevtrev

Imreoir2 wrote: »

It's very unlikely they would be able to do that.

yes totally agree but there is nobody providing a voice for the majority of voters in the north who voted to remain in the european union. Instead we have to listen to arlene flying the unionist flag representing 36% of the electorate in the last election

Professor Moriarty

Oh dear! This won't end well. A group of 30 Remain Tory MPs are forming a group to counteract the ERG and will vote against May's Brexit deal unless it is very soft. Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right...

Professor Moriarty

clevtrev wrote: »

yes totally agree but there is nobody providing a voice for the majority of voters in the north who voted to remain in the european union. Instead we have to listen to arlene flying the unionist flag representing 36% of the electorate in the last election

Sinn Féin is sitting on the sidelines watching the DUP being thrown under the bus as the UK implodes and fragments. Why on Earth would they say or do anything?

clevtrev

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Sinn Féin is sitting on the sidelines watching the DUP being thrown under the bus as the UK implodes and fragments. Why on Earth would they say or do anything?

I think Arelne might me driving the bus unfortunately!

Professor Moriarty

clevtrev wrote: »

I think Arelne might me driving the bus unfortunately!

I think someone cut the brakes.

clevtrev

it is unfortunate though that the North has no alternative voice in any of this. As you say Sinn Fein seem to have taken to sitting on the sidelines

Professor Moriarty

clevtrev wrote: »

it is unfortunate though that the North has no alternative voice in any of this. As you say Sinn Fein seem to have taken to sitting on the sidelines

Such is the case when there is no middle ground. The DUP's misfortune is Sinn Féin's opportunity and vice versa.

BonnieSituation

clevtrev wrote: »

its a pity Sinn Fein wouldnt take a temporary time out from non participation in british politics and cast a few votes in the London parliament to get a decent deal for northern ireland instead of having these DUP dinosaurs dictating the negotiations and inflicting DUP policies on the whole of the North

Here we go.

Would you swear an oath to the queen of England of you were a Republican?

How would you explain it to your constituents?

What do you think 7 votes will do? Would Sylvia Hermon vote with them?

Do you think that the loons on the right will vote just the opposite of what they vote just so SF aren't the victors?

It's a nonsense suggestion and yet again it crops up.

BonnieSituation

clevtrev wrote: »

it is unfortunate though that the North has no alternative voice in any of this. As you say Sinn Fein seem to have taken to sitting on the sidelines

The north voted for the DUP and SF. And as it's FPTP tough tittie.

hotmail.com

Not one cross community protest against a hard border has taken place in Belfast. Are the people in the North sleep walking themselves into Brexit?

Mr.Nice Guy

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Here we go.

Would you swear an oath to the queen of England of you were a Republican?

How would you explain it to your constituents?

What do you think 7 votes will do? Would Sylvia Hermon vote with them?

Do you think that the loons on the right will vote just the opposite of what they vote just so SF aren't the victors?

It's a nonsense suggestion and yet again it crops up.

I don't think SF should take their seats but their 7 votes would have kept the UK in the Customs Union as that vote was lost by a margin of 5. That would have been a game-changing moment.

An Ciarraioch

hotmail.com wrote: »

Not one cross community protest against a hard border has taken place in Belfast. Are the people in the North sleep walking themselves into Brexit?

The City Council did approve a People's Vote motion recently.

BonnieSituation

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I don't think SF should take their seats but their 7 votes would have kept the UK in the Customs Union as that vote was lost by a margin of 5. That would have been a game-changing moment.

Would it have been? What happens then?

I said it at the time, but do you honestly bthink that there would not have been 7 other Tories that would have gladly voted against the motion just so that Paddy didn't get his way.

It's madness to think they would have made any difference.

Enzokk

briany wrote: »

If only the DUP could be a bit more pragmatic on this. They have no way to know how brilliant any UK trade deals will be. Agreeing on a backstop until a mutually agreeable technological solution is found would insulate them from the worst effects of Brexit, especially a no-deal. On the other hand, if Brexit is a roaring economic success, there's time to figure out how to make checks on this island workable.

Point being that it would probably be in their interest, if they weren't so stubborn, to accept a temporary 'soft annexation', rather than risk a unification if no-deal comes about and the UK's economy goes into the toilet, and pragmatic Unionists are suddenly rethinking their allegiance.

Their only end goal is for the talk of unification to end it seems. They saw Brexit as the way for this to happen and they are standing by this. You have to admire their adherence to their position, even if everyone and their pets can see they are doomed by following this course.

clevtrev wrote: »

it is unfortunate though that the North has no alternative voice in any of this. As you say Sinn Fein seem to have taken to sitting on the sidelines

I don't think there is much Sinn Fein could have done even if they took up their seats in Westminster. The only way it could have made a difference was if their votes would be the deciding vote to form a government. Seeing as this is not the case I don't see why they would take their seats.

I do hope though that if in the future their votes could make or break the formation of a government they will consider it. As we see the influence a party can have is substantial and they would be abandoning their voters if they don't consider it at least if a situation like that would come to pass in the future.

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

Their only end goal is for the talk of unification to end it seems. They saw Brexit as the way for this to happen and they are standing by this. You have to admire their adherence to their position, even if everyone and their pets can see they are doomed by following this course.





I don't think there is much Sinn Fein could have done even if they took up their seats in Westminster. The only way it could have made a difference was if their votes would be the deciding vote to form a government. Seeing as this is not the case I don't see why they would take their seats.

I do hope though that if in the future their votes could make or break the formation of a government they will consider it. As we see the influence a party can have is substantial and they would be abandoning their voters if they don't consider it at least if a situation like that would come to pass in the future.

I understand your logic but we will see flying pigs before Francie Molloy swears allegiance to the Queen.

FrancieBrady

Enzokk wrote: »

Their only end goal is for the talk of unification to end it seems. They saw Brexit as the way for this to happen and they are standing by this. You have to admire their adherence to their position, even if everyone and their pets can see they are doomed by following this course.





I don't think there is much Sinn Fein could have done even if they took up their seats in Westminster. The only way it could have made a difference was if their votes would be the deciding vote to form a government. Seeing as this is not the case I don't see why they would take their seats.

I do hope though that if in the future their votes could make or break the formation of a government they will consider it. As we see the influence a party can have is substantial and they would be abandoning their voters if they don't consider it at least if a situation like that would come to pass in the future.

Their voters elect them again and again and again on the abstentionist ticket though.

They abstained through much more damaging times for northern Ireland since partition. I cannot see it ending when the DUP are imploding and possibly destroying the concept of the UK to boot.