Brexit discussion thread IV

Hurrache

As the hours go by the conservatives slowly realise who the DUP actually are
https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1050104929073938432?s=19

hotmail.com

The DUP abstained in a vote tonight in the Commons as a warning sign to the government there.

How much has the DUP got from this 1 billion they were promised back in 2017 for their support. I believe only 50 million has been allocated so far.

If the DUP withdraws their support, the North loses either way.

hotmail.com

Double post.

BonnieSituation

Hurrache wrote: »

As the hours go by the conservatives slowly realise who the DUP actually are
https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1050104929073938432?s=19

The resolve of the DUP is famous for its lack of solidity. They're always slow on the take up.

Hurrache

It's still getting very entertaining
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1050101358320340994?s=19

briany

What's the DUP's move if May tells them to go whistle (i.e. she doesn't need their support)?

FrancieBrady

briany wrote: »

What's the DUP's move if May tells them to go whistle (i.e. she doesn't need their support)?

Pucker up and go home?

LeinsterDub

briany wrote: »

What's the DUP's move if May tells them to go whistle (i.e. she doesn't need their support)?

Propose a motion of no confidence?

Larbre34

One thing is now certain, it is absolutely pointless doing the Commons arithmetic based on Party lines anymore.

They're in crazytown, Party loyalty and whips will be ignored and it is basically going to be a battle for a majority of Tory and Labour centrists - Boris and Corbyn haters, plus Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, Greens looking to attract enough fence sitters away from the Tory ERG, Corbyn/McDonnell, Kate Hoey types and DUP.

The pragmatists versus the fundamentalists. Get the popcorn lads.

briany

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Propose a motion of no confidence?

They could do that, but it's really more of a 'see you in hell' type move. The result would (surely) be another government that doesn't need their votes and therefore less incentive to listen to their concerns.

Enzokk

briany wrote: »

What's the DUP's move if May tells them to go whistle (i.e. she doesn't need their support)?

May has a budget she needs their votes for. She needs the DUP, not for this vote but for almost all the other ones not to do with Brexit.

briany

Enzokk wrote: »

May has a budget she needs their votes for. She needs the DUP, not for this vote but for almost all the other ones not to do with Brexit.

Is that to say that none of these other votes can garner any cross-party support?

LeinsterDub

briany wrote: »

They could do that, but it's really more of a 'see you in hell' type move. The result would (surely) be another government that doesn't need their votes and therefore less incentive to listen to their concerns.

Likely but the DUP will not be part of a government that divides the UK as they see it. Be that May or Corbyn

Enzokk

briany wrote: »

Is that to say that none of these other votes can garner any cross-party support?

Do you think Labour will vote for a budget presented by the Tories? What motivation do they have to support a budget they have not had any say in producing? If it goes down well they get no credit, if it is a disaster they are the ones that allowed it to pass. They want her to lose votes as that is their path to power, the DUP knows this and will use this I think.

Itssoeasy

Hurrache wrote: »

As the hours go by the conservatives slowly realise who the DUP actually are
https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1050104929073938432?s=19

Who cares if the DUP are upset ?

Enlighten me again what bloody office Arlene foster holds ? Oh that's right none so why did I see her on sky news earlier acting as if she's first minister ? The DUP prop up one British government and they think they are relevant outside of the north.

Nate--IRL--

Enzokk wrote: »

Do you think Labour will vote for a budget presented by the Tories? What motivation do they have to support a budget they have not had any say in producing? If it goes down well they get no credit, if it is a disaster they are the ones that allowed it to pass. They want her to lose votes as that is their path to power, the DUP knows this and will use this I think.

They could vote down the budget, but prop her up on the following no confidence vote?

Nate

hotmail.com

If Labour get in, the first the they can do is postpone the March date of leaving, giving them a chance to negotiate a deal.

Rhineshark

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Who cares if the DUP are upset ?

Enlighten me again what bloody office Arlene foster holds ? Oh that's right none so why did I see her on sky news earlier acting as if she's first minister ? The DUP prop up one British government and they think they are relevant outside of the north.

I'm afraid that because they do prop up one British government (unfortunately the current alleged government), despite holding no bloody office because it's not convenient to be actually governing NI right now, the DUP are relevent outside NI and thus Theresa May cares quite a lot when they are more enraged than usual (although it sometimes takes careful observation to figure out when that is).

Although since it came out yesterday that she was clawing up Labour support, the DUP know a shafting is en route as soon as May can find a shaft not already lodged in her back and so have very little to lose.

Nate--IRL--

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

They could vote down the budget, but prop her up on the following no confidence vote?

Nate

No I don't thinks so - passing a budget is the most fundamental activity of any government.

Not passing one is essentially a vote of no confidence.

trellheim

Back in reality land Tom Newton Dunn tweets

A lot of conflicting reports around tonight, but I am still told by a senior Govt source that any deal with the EU is “still some way off”. The UK’s demand for a time limit on the customs union backstop is the major sticking point.

ie. what I've been saying all along ... a time limit will be unacceptable to the EU.

Who knew the Sun could do decent reporting

mayo.mick

Spook_ie

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Belfast to Scotland is not an international border, and won't be after Brexit until the Scots declare independence.

Exactly so why would you be putting up customs and borders between Belfast and Scotland, you wouldn't put them between Louth and Meath.

prawnsambo

hotmail.com wrote: »

If Labour get in, the first the they can do is postpone the March date of leaving, giving them a chance to negotiate a deal.

Article 50 cannot be extended without unainmous approval of the EU 27. They might if there's a new government, but the shenanigans over the last two years have effectively burned up whatever remaining goodwill there was.

prawnsambo

Spook_ie wrote: »

Exactly so why would you be putting up customs and borders between Belfast and Scotland, you wouldn't put them between Louth and Meath.

It may have slipped your notice, but there are customs posts at every port.

Imreoir2

Spook_ie wrote: »

Exactly so why would you be putting up customs and borders between Belfast and Scotland, you wouldn't put them between Louth and Meath.

Right, so 800 years ago...

...then there was a peace settlement in the north, but having a hard border on the island of Ireland would undermine the peace settlement and no Irish government would accept that. Ireland, being a member of the EU has successfuly convinced the EU 27 not to accept a deal that would require a hard border on this island. As such a backstop is required to move any new controlls on customs to the Irish sea so that they don't have to take palce at between Ireland and NI.

A customs border between Derry and Donegall is no more acceptable than a customs border between Louth and Meath.

Rhineshark

Spook_ie wrote: »

Exactly so why would you be putting up customs and borders between Belfast and Scotland, you wouldn't put them between Louth and Meath.

That sea in between Belfast and Scotland helps in a case where the dratted things have to go up somewhere though.

Sierra Oscar

I said long ago that the DUP would torpedo any deal that led to additional checks between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. This was blatantly always going to happen. We've known this since the last UK General Election.

There will have to be another UK General Election. That is the only way forward. I reckon it will lead to a no deal scenario and by default a hard-Brexit. No one really wants this, but it will happen. Politics in the UK has failed and by default we will see a hard-Brexit.

prinzeugen

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Enlighten me again what bloody office Arlene foster holds ? Oh that's right none so why did I see her on sky news earlier acting as if she's first minister ? The DUP prop up one British government and they think they are relevant outside of the north.

Same could be said about Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP. Leader of a regional assembly and she thinks she should be treated like a world leader.

The SNP think they are relevant outside Scotland. They are not.

Infini

prinzeugen wrote: »

Same could be said about Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP. Leader of a regional assembly and she thinks she should be treated like a world leader.

The SNP think they are relevant outside Scotland. They are not.

Difference though is Sturgeon is at least representing the majority will of Scotland. The DUP are only interested in representing the narrow minded view of a MINORITY of NI and are only after their own self interests and have no interest in the national interest even if it triggers a UK breakup.

BonnieSituation

prinzeugen wrote: »

Same could be said about Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP. Leader of a regional assembly and she thinks she should be treated like a world leader.

The SNP think they are relevant outside Scotland. They are not.

Right...