Brexit discussion thread IV

Enzokk

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Per the article, the opposition to her plan comes from the DUP, who want no Irish Sea border, and Brexiteers who want to tear up the backstop agreement and go pure Canada.

Of course, the EU would simply say a flat No to a Canada-no-backstop deal, and the Brexiteers would crash out with no deal in March. I don't think they have the nerve for that.

I don't know how things will play out as it seems that the DUP has Theresa May by the family jewels but at the same time they did sign a agreement and there is money attached to that agreement so if the DUP goes against their deal they will not be receiving that extra money.

According to this article,

The DUP is showing that its Brexit threats aren’t a bluff

Looks like the DUP is being told the truth of the negotiations from the EU side. Once the legal backstop is in place and the UK decides it wants to diverge from the customs union then Northern Ireland will drift away even further from the UK. The backstop will tie the DUP into the thing they want the least, which will mean more checks in the Irish Sea than just regulations checks.

One of the other problems, I am told by one of the Tory DUP handlers, is that while Number 10 has been giving the DUP a sugar-coated version of what backstop would mean, Barnier gave them the unvarnished one. I understand that he pointed out how the backstop would have more influence, the more the UK diverged from the EU. This point, which might have sounded obvious to Barnier’s team, particularly alarmed the DUP.

trellheim

Right folks... its time for the Hurricane metaphor.

Brexit Cabinet kicked off at 1700 in UK it looks like as predicted the no end date will scupper it unless they have a saver provision. We will know due to leaks almost immediately ... so we are in the eye of the storm !



https://twitter.com/bbclaurak


Opinion : it'll be put up or shut up, and if it's put up we are gung ho for a GE I reckon she has not got the numbers if they throw the rattle .

Enzokk

trellheim wrote: »

Right folks... its time for the Hurricane metaphor.

Brexit Cabinet kicked off at 1700 in UK it looks like as predicted the no end date will scupper it unless they have a saver provision. We will know due to leaks almost immediately ... so we are in the eye of the storm !



https://twitter.com/bbclaurak


Opinion : it'll be put up or shut up, and if it's put up we are gung ho for a GE I reckon she has not got the numbers if they throw the rattle .

And we have Arlene Foster trying to muddy the waters.

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1050423447191519233

Kermit.de.frog

I don't think the GB Tories are unionists stuck in the mould of the Battle of the Boyne like the DUP.

trellheim

Here's the letter from the DUP.

Might be worth remembering the full name of the Tory Party : "The Conservative and Unionist Party"

https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1050421745180729345

Edit : Some sophistry : Tom newton dunn tweeting that they are not being shown a deal since Brussels isnt finished negotiating

J Mysterio

Just looking at Arlene Fosters Twitter and was surprised to see her retweeting stuff about 'onthisdayIRA' this or that in the 70's or 80's. Seems a bit odd.

flatty

It may be completely irrelevant and / or coincidental, but I was in Mayfair last night, and I've never seen so many American business types in the corridors of the financial power epicentre.

Junkyard Tom

The utter arrogance that the DUP believe the north being under UK jurisdiction is eternal and that they can be complicit in imposing the hardest of Brexits upon their nationalist neighbours free of consequences.

The DUP have well-and-truly destroyed any concept of a shared future between the two communities. The DUP are perfectly fine on Britain diverging from the north as long as they can run the place like it's their own little 17th Century fiefdom.

Fanatical hypocrites.

charlie14

J Mysterio wrote: »

Just looking at Arlene Fosters Twitter and was surprised to see her retweeting stuff about 'onthisdayIRA' this or that in the 70's or 80's. Seems a bit odd.

With her mindset I`m surprised she didn`t "onthisday" the battle of the boyne and the plantation of Ulster as well.

Beechwoodspark

The dup seem to be digging their own grave lately.

J Mysterio

charlie14 wrote: »

With her mindset I`m surprised she didn`t "onthisday" the battle of the boyne and the plantation of Ulster as well.

She did the Ulster Covenant, which isnt a surprise.

It just seems very regressive and backward to be tweeting about the IRA every other day. Move on FFS.

Itssoeasy

Did I imagine seeing a quote about the DUP having said they have "red blood lines" or something to that effect ?

Sweet Jaysus these people are the majority in Northern Ireland.

BonnieSituation

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Did I imagine seeing a quote about the DUP having said they have "red blood lines" or something to that effect ?

Sweet Jaysus these people are the majority in Northern Ireland.

No, they're not.

Itssoeasy

BonnieSituation wrote: »

No, they're not.

They have the most seats in the last election in the north don't they ?

Edit: Yes they are ahead of sinn Fein by one seat.

Beechwoodspark

Itssoeasy wrote: »

They have the most seats in the last election in the north don't they ?

At some stage the green side is going to have more seats and very possibly will be as tone deaf to the unionists as the dup are now to soft Brexit supporters

Itssoeasy

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

At some stage the green side is going to have more seats and very possibly will be as tone deaf to the unionists as the dup are now to soft Brexit supporters

I don't disagree on that prediction. My post which to be fair was a little light on detail as to what they were a majority of in Northern Ireland but they are still in charge as we aren't seeing a Sinn Fein First minister for a while.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.ft.com/content/30fbcb64-cd73-11e8-9fe5-24ad351828ab

FT reporting now that the deal is pretty much done and May is ready to face down the DUP and accept EU demands NI will remain in SM.

Also they say ministers were close to resigning this evening.

An Ciarraioch

Tom Newton Dunn informs us that no backstop proposal is being discussed today as talks with Brussels haven't progressed as expected.

For anyone who has read Dickens, might remind you of the main plotline in Bleak House:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jarndyce_and_Jarndyce

Infini

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

At some stage the green side is going to have more seats and very possibly will be as tone deaf to the unionists as the dup are now to soft Brexit supporters

While it's a possibility alright the truth is at least towards the DUP ilk it would be a case of well Karma. The only difference is that they probably wont be listened to because at that point they'll be so up their arse in the past they'll have failed to realise the majority of people have just moved on and they're the ones that failed to adapt.

I'll be honest I really think the DUP are utter incompetent fools. They act so petulant and keep living in the past refusing to move on or be pragmatic. This will be their undoing because if they refuse to compromise they'll ultimately get nothing and like it.

lawred2

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Did I imagine seeing a quote about the DUP having said they have "red blood lines" or something to that effect ?

Sweet Jaysus these people are the majority in Northern Ireland.

Blood red lines

They are not the majority in NI

Zubeneschamali

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tom Newton Dunn informs us that no backstop proposal is being discussed today as talks with Brussels haven't progressed as expected.

Oh, I think they progressed exactly as I expected, and exactly as they have been progressing for the last 2 years.


The EU side are still patiently explaining what's on offer to the UK side, and waiting for time to run out so the UK side has to fold.

Kermit.de.frog

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tom Newton Dunn informs us that no backstop proposal is being discussed today as talks with Brussels haven't progressed as expected.

For anyone who has read Dickens, might remind you of the main plotline in Bleak House:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jarndyce_and_Jarndyce

Interesting because the FT saying deal is all but done after the meeting.

Infini

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://www.ft.com/content/30fbcb64-cd73-11e8-9fe5-24ad351828ab

FT reporting now that the deal is pretty much done and May is ready to face down the DUP and accept EU demands NI will remain in SM.

Also they say ministers were close to resigning this evening.

Paywalled sadly so cant read it. Regardless I think the time has come that the rest will face down the DUP and basically tell em they can either accept it or be told they WILL be guaranteed to be thrown under the bus if they bring down the government. Regardless this is the beginning of the True Endgame.

Itssoeasy

lawred2 wrote: »

Blood red lines

They are not the majority in NI

They are the biggest party so maybe majority wasn't the best word but the unionists are in the minority.

Zubeneschamali

Infini wrote: »

Regardless this is the beginning of the True Endgame.

Nah, this is all still just about the Withdrawal Agreement and the baby step into a Transition Period in March to ensure that nothing happens.


If we get that far, the real negotiations start on a trade deal. Those are the kind of talks that can easily take 10 years.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://www.ft.com/content/30fbcb64-cd73-11e8-9fe5-24ad351828ab

FT reporting now that the deal is pretty much done and May is ready to face down the DUP and accept EU demands NI will remain in SM.

Also they say ministers were close to resigning this evening.

Reuters reporting though that May told UTV's Ken Reid and other NI journalists this evening that nothing will be signed or agreed next week and things will go right down to the wire in November.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-may-nireland/brexit-backstop-talks-likely-to-continue-till-november-british-pm-idUSKCN1ML2L1

Igotadose

Not surprising. Yet another "Brexit is currently bad for the UK economy, and will only get worse once it happens" article in the UK Indo:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-uk-economy-office-for-budget-responsibility-no-deal-gdp-investment-inflation-a8579306.html

"The Bank of England and some independent analysts, including the Centre for European Reform, have suggested that the Leave result has held back UK GDP growth by between 2 and 2.5 per cent relative to where it otherwise would have been due to lower household spending, resulting from the spike in inflation after the vote, and lower business investment due to Brexit-related uncertainty."

The article goes on to further state that 'future trade deals' won't make a difference:

“As well as being challenging to negotiate, the evidence suggests that the benefits of additional bilateral trade deals are likely to be relatively modest – and the impact of any individual deal may not be material for our forecast,” it said.

--

Challenging to negotiate by the crack team in place in HMG? I'm shocked, I tell you, shocked. Round up the usual suspects.

Kermit.de.frog

Infini wrote: »

Paywalled sadly so cant read it. Regardless I think the time has come that the rest will face down the DUP and basically tell em they can either accept it or be told they WILL be guaranteed to be thrown under the bus if they bring down the government. Regardless this is the beginning of the True Endgame.

Try the link here

https://twitter.com/FT/status/1050450072570421249

Igotadose

Another good piece about Brexit, and UK: Ireland attitudes. https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/leinster-ship-anniversary-sunk-irish-sea-wales-deaths-brexit-a8578826.html

Ireland and Wales commemorate the sinking of a mail packet ship on route to Holyhead from Dublin during WWI. England could barely be bothered to acknowledge it.

MrMusician18

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Try the link here

https://twitter.com/FT/status/1050450072570421249

I'm extremely wary of relying on the British press for Brexit stories. Various sources are playing these outlets, kite flying and testing reactions.

Completely unreliable