Brexit discussion thread IV

The electorate haven't a notion and the media are complicit in refusing to even speak about it.

May's Chequers 'option' has been presented as a deal (it's wholly incompatible with the EU's legal system) and not something which is going to need to soften massively if is ever to become anything near reality.

Meanwhile we have a small section of the electorate (look at the UKIP +5 in the recent polls) who demand a hard brexit seeming to be the ones driving the bus towards that cliff.

The vast majority have no notion what is happening, what problems are due if there is failure in negotiation, what costs there are to bear to operate a genuine independent trade policy, what difficulties they will have to go through to renegotiate half of the market access they now have globally.

it's an absolute pox of a situation.

devnull

At the end of the day though the hard brexiteers think they can just drive off the edge of a cliff with no deal, everything will be great as they'll have as much money as they need, full control over everything and nothing else will change.

Everything else is project fear, and fake news because the UK are so important that if something did change then it would hurt the EU more than it hurt them because the UK is so important in the head of the 'Little Empirers'.

The most ridiculous thing is seeing lots of working class people who are cheerleaading for the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg whose policies outside Brexit would have a massively negative impact on their lives, but these people seem not to care. Rees-Mogg is an enemy of the working class, not a friend, but it seems some people are more than willing to be poorer and to have their living standards reduced just so they get a brexit they don't even understand.

And don't forget, the EU is going to collapse anyway. Any day now. Just wait and see.

Capt'n Midnight

May has red lines on the Sea Border
and " EEA+ " as it includes free movement and customs union.

She's defending the "common rulebook" which is where the UK gets trade access to the EU without having to fully respect the ECJ , and where the UK can change things unilaterally, which would be a better deal than all the 31 other countries in the EU and EFTA have at present. :rolleyes:

So it's still Hard Brexit unless they drop the red lines.


Make no mistake the white paper is not a real compromise by the UK to the EU. They are still asking for cake. And it's still a made to order wedding cake. But with less tiers and ribbons.


All sounds like someone got overexcited about a mistranslation of brioche.





How does this sound ?

The Agreement will strengthen political, economic and sectoral cooperation across a wide range of policy fields, including trade and investment, sustainable development, justice, freedom and security. It encompasses areas such as cooperation on principles, norms and standards, raw materials, migration, organised crime and corruption, industrial policy and small and medium-sized enterprises cooperation, tourism, energy, education and culture, environment, climate change and natural resources, agriculture, health, civil society, and the modernisation of the state and public administration.

CptMackey

The more I see the more I'm convinced that it will be a no deal brexit. The British government seem unable or unwilling to see what needs to happen to avoid a hard brexit. Time is quickly running out.

Zubeneschamali

CptMackey wrote: »

The more I see the more I'm convinced that it will be a no deal brexit.

No-deal Brexit might last as long as a month.

devnull

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No-deal Brexit might last as long as a month.

If it does happen though the media and the brexiteers will never accept that the chaos that would happen is a consequence of their actions though, because that is how dishonest they are with the public who they are leading off a cliff.

They'd quickly switch their focus to blaming the EU for 'punishing' them.

The snake oil salesmen will never accept responsibility for any of their actions.

In the event of the worst-case Brexit with planes grounded and food import issues we'll be treated to narratives about the EU punishing the UK and rhetoric regarding militaristic solutions.

I hope we don't get there. But the snake oil salesmen don't care, they have their teflon suits on no matter what happens.

devnull

Deleted User wrote: »

In the event of the worst-case Brexit with planes grounded and food import issues we'll be treated to narratives about the EU punishing the UK and rhetoric regarding militaristic solutions.

But this is where there is a massive contradiction between what they are claiming and it is somewhat of a fallacy that is being displayed that too many people in the UK are naive about.

On one hand they are claiming that 'Brexit means Brexit' and that a no deal Brexit or a very hard Brexit is not a bad thing since it will give them freedom, a lot more money and a lot less interference so that must happen because otherwise it's pointless leaving the European Union at all.

Then on the other hand they'll claim that things in the UK could go bad because the European Union are punishing them. The same European Union they said that they want nothing to do with and want to be as far separated from as possible via the hardest of Brexits.

Unfortunately a lot of the people in the UK have been taken in by the idea that will be so called 'punishment' handed out. It's not punishment at all. The correct name for it is The Consequences of Leaving.

ancapailldorcha

Deleted User wrote: »

The electorate haven't a notion and the media are complicit in refusing to even speak about it.

May's Chequers 'option' has been presented as a deal (it's wholly incompatible with the EU's legal system) and not something which is going to need to soften massively if is ever to become anything near reality.

Meanwhile we have a small section of the electorate (look at the UKIP +5 in the recent polls) who demand a hard brexit seeming to be the ones driving the bus towards that cliff.

The vast majority have no notion what is happening, what problems are due if there is failure in negotiation, what costs there are to bear to operate a genuine independent trade policy, what difficulties they will have to go through to renegotiate half of the market access they now have globally.

it's an absolute pox of a situation.

It is. The UK has the least trusted newspapers in Europe and nothing has made this clearer than the current shambles where, instead of holding the government to account, the media has carried on more or less exactly as before. The BBC still parrots the government line for fear of having its licence fee slashed while the mainly pro-Brexit tabloids which don't pay UK corporation tax are still rabidly pro-Brexit.

Meanwhile the likes of the Guardian are too busy pandering to students and young lefties types to have sort of broad appeal so that they can get their analysis across. Publications like the FT and The Economist are much too niche to influence anyone's thinking on any sort of scale.

Yeah, it's a mess but this is what happens when you have an ever widening income inequality gap and a disconnected elite pursuing their own agenda enabled by a broken voting system and a blatantly unfit for purpose media.

As if to prove my point, I am watching the last Question Time and you have Barry Gardiner bleating on about how Labour will offer A customs arrangement with the EU. Sorry Barry but Labour can't make that offer. It requires a bilateral agreement with the EU. Nobody called him out on that.

EdgeCase

The media over there is an absolute mess on this and other issues but there's also a massive amount of general ignorance about what the EU is, what it does and as blindness to see that the Tories and Labour negotiating internally has nothing to do with obtaining agreement from the EU.

It's a very insular and myopic media, even if it likes to consider itself vastly superior to its American cousins, it's proving it really isn't.

devnull

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It is. The UK has the least trusted newspapers in Europe and nothing has made this clearer than the current shambles where, instead of holding the government to account, the media has carried on more or less exactly as before. The BBC still parrots the government line for fear of having its licence fee slashed while the mainly pro-Brexit tabloids which don't pay UK corporation tax are still rabidly pro-Brexit.

Honestly having seen a lot of the BBC coverage, it's clear that recently they have been towing the government line because of the fear of having their funding cut and that makes for very poor coverage on Brexit. It's more typical of 'State TV' that we hear about in other countries now rather than the BBC of old and that is very much a bad thing in my book.

Channel 4 and Sky have been better, it's perhaps somewhat strange that Sky are now considered by the Brexit brigade to be staunch and biased remainers, not many would have said that a few years ago when it was assumed that a certain Mr Murdoch was going to use his shareholding in the company in order to promote a right wing outlook.

briany

If Brexit were to be called off, it would at best put a temporary lid on the pressure that's been building in British society for the last 30-odd years. The problem is that it could come off even more explosively at some point down the line. So, while May's been accused of kicking the can over the current negotiations, having no Brexit, and trying to get back to business as usual, would be kicking the can on dealing with the ever growing anti-immigration and anti-integration sentiments among the British public and their political class.

I'm not saying that Brexit would be a good thing for the UK, I'm just saying that having no Brexit is only a kind of half-solution. You must still deal with the forces that drove it in the first place. Waving it off doesn't seem to have worked. Trying to stamp it out in any kind of punitive sense would only fuel it, IMO.

McGiver

Deleted User wrote: »

May mentions that Trump suggested to her that she sue the EU.

:sigh:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/15/theresa-may-donald-trump-told-me-to-sue-the-eu
Good advice, indeed.

Imreoir2

devnull wrote: »

And don't forget, the EU is going to collapse anyway. Any day now. Just wait and see.

I watched an interview a few days ago with Mr Barnier in which he told a story about a "very stimulating" meeting he had in his office with Mr Farage a few years ago at the start of the Brexit process. At the end of the meeting he asked Farage, "when this is all over, how do you envisage the future relationship between the UK and the EU?"

Farage: "There won't be an EU"

*Long Pause*

Barnier: (To the crowd listening) "I am not ready to concede this point to Mr Farage".

*Big Laugh*

Leroy42

There has also been a noticeable shift in the wording being used by the government.

It was not long ago that the government were stating they couldn't possible tell parliament what their Brexit position actually was as that would damage negotiations. This went as far as Davies refusing to even share the sectoral analysis that the government had undertake.

It was all about negotiations, not showing your cards etc.

Now, this white paper is being called 'the deal'. As if it is not only their negotiation position, but some sort of final position that they are offering EU. The negotiations, as they are putting it out there, are thus over. It is a take it or leave it offer, either the EU accept it as is or they walk away.

It is very clear why they are doing this, why this is being talked about as a deal, when of course it is no such thing. They are setting the agenda to be able to claim that the fall out from a Hard Brexit is all down to the EU not accepting in the deal offered by May. That May, and thus the UK, did everything they could and got a deal on the table only for the EU, probably because they hate the UK, to turn it down leaving May no other option.

It is immensely annoying when none of the ministers of spokespeople are called out on their labeling it a deal by the media.

ON a different point, the total lack of selling of this new plan by No 10 is a disgrace. May (I know she is on the TV this morning) should have been front and centre selling this to the public. Instead, they seem to think that PR doesn't matter and the WP itself was enough. This has left the media landscape open for the likes of JRM etc to step in and control the narrative.

May should have been out 1st thing on the Saturday morning across all the networks, pointing out the benefits, but also the realities, of the WP. Yes she understands that some, minority of, people were looking for a total brexit, but the effects on the economy, on jobs, on social supports, the NHS etc etc was simply too big a risk to take. That the likes of Boris and JRM are fine to call for things from the sidelines but her job is to deliver Brexit and also to ensure that nobody in the UK is loosing out and that all the reports indicate that there will be massive negative effects.

Finish all interviews by saying that she has been classed as undecisive, but she has been listening to all sides, and that up till now now realistic option as been brought forward by the Hard Brexit side. And that is why, as a cabinet, they all faced the tough decision yesterday and accepted it was the best way forward. That would have cut off the legs of people like Boris and Davies and people like JRM would be put on the back foot.

Instead she left a vacuum

EdgeCase

I would suspect May spoke about that "sue the EU" comment in part because he stabbed her in the back during the visit.

She's hardly going to feel she should avoid commenting on such a ridiculous suggestion or go out of her way to make him look good, when he effectively tried to promote Boris Johnson.

badtoro

I met two British tourists during the week, we got to chatting as I was doing farm stuff and they had leased out their farm (or land should I say) in North Wales. Not that it's important but judging their accents they didn't strike me as Welsh. He runs a business of some sort, I didn't get the chance to ask what. She mentions Brexit in the conversation and out of interest I ask their opinion of it without offering mine. Apparently most of their friends voted to stay in but they voted to leave.

So I ask them what their reasoning was.

"We're a very important country in the world, and you know we don't like being told what to do."

So I tease things out a little more giving my thoughts of Irelands relationship with the EU in relation to my work, that I don't trust Dublin to do things in my best interests, and I get this reply.

"France and Denmark ignore a lot of EU regulations whislt London gold plates them."

So it seems the solution to this problem is to vote out of the EU and hand control to the people who add the gold plating to the red tape.

I sort of let it lie there as I was after a hard day and my brain was starting to hurt. It's probably the thing that interests me the most about Brexit, to see how the red tape/regulations will be affected after the fact. It's long been my suspicion that no British bureaucrat will do themselves out of a job.

EdgeCase

I've been fairly depressed even trying to engage with some English friends of mine on Brexit. It's largely a mix of worn down fatalism : oh, how bad could it be? Let's just get on with it ... to just parroting, without any analysis, points from the Daily Express.

You can see where this is going: a car crash, no deal brexit that will be blamed on everyone else.

badtoro

EdgeCase wrote: »

I've been fairly depressed even trying to engage with some English friends of mine on Brexit. It's largely a mix of worn down fatalism : oh, how bad could it be? Let's just get on with it ... to just parroting, without any analysis, points from the Daily Express.

And don't forget reference to "The War".

Capt'n Midnight

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

As if to prove my point, I am watching the last Question Time and you have Barry Gardiner bleating on about how Labour will offer A customs arrangement with the EU. Sorry Barry but Labour can't make that offer. It requires a bilateral agreement with the EU. Nobody called him out on that.

And Barry seemed to be the most rational person there.

Nobody has called anyone out.


A long time ago Paxman asked someone "when has the EU ever put money ahead of principles ?"

That question isn't even being asked anymore with the focus on a white paper wish list the UK can agree on.

Do the public know that the white paper is only a general starting position, and not something the EU will ratify subject to dotting the i's and crossing the t's ?



It's scary skimming through the white paper.
https://static.rasset.ie/documents/news/2018/07/the-future-relationship-between-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union-web-version.pdf

1.3.4 Financial services

58. The UK and EU financial services markets are highly interconnected: UK-located
banks underwrite around half of the debt and equity issued by EU businesses;17
UK-located banks are counterparty to over half of the over-the-counter interest rate
derivatives traded by EU companies and banks;18 around £1.4 trillion of assets are
managed in the UK on behalf of European clients;19 the world-leading London Market
for insurance hosts all of the world’s twenty largest international (re)insurance
companies; and more international banking activity is booked in the UK than in any
other country. This interconnected market has benefits for consumers and
businesses across Europe. For example, one study has found that if new regulatory
barriers forced the fragmentation of firms’ balance sheets, the wholesale banking
industry would need to find £23-38 billion of extra capital.20 These are costs that
would ultimately be borne by consumers and businesses.

Or the banks could move the capital to the EU because the EU has principles whereas the UK will relax their rules and allow them to trade back because they'll need the money.

Any hint from the UK side that they'll setup rules to stop the flight of capital and lots of contingency plans will kick in.

20 A study undertaken by Oliver Wyman: 'One Year on from the Brexit Vote: A briefing for the wholesale
banks', Oliver Wyman, 2017. Original figures $30-50 billion, converted to £ using Bank of England daily ( also 40,000 jobs going to Europe )
spot exchange rate for 30 June 2017

EdgeCase

badtoro wrote: »

And don't forget reference to "The War".

Oddly, no that didn't come up. They usually just assume that you can completely reorientate the UK economy, change every business and turn it into Australia or Canada or Japan over a weekend in March.

devnull

EdgeCase wrote: »

Oddly, no that didn't come up. They usually just assume that you can completely reorientate the UK economy, change every business and turn it into Australia or Canada or Japan over a weekend in March.

Unfortunately it comes up all of the time with my relatives from the UK.

They will mention the war and how they saved Germany who are now dictating to us, moaning about Merkel and things like that, read the Sun, Mail or Express and believe everything that they read or their favourite politicians say regardless of if any of these people have anything to back it up.

With anyone who says something that they don't agree with of course it's all fake news and project fear, normally spouting some nonsense that despite all the doom mongering the UK hasn't tanked since Brexit, to which I remind them that the UK hasn't left yet and if the UK is doing so well then being part of the EU can't be that bad.

Then the next argument is about hospitals being full of foreigners, and saying that is why they are overcrowded, of course the fact that the Tories closed far more beds than there are additional foreigners in hospitals isn't something that they can see. Yes hospitals are more overcrowded and there are more foreigners, but the cuts are the real source of the issue.

EdgeCase

I had the misfortune of having to have dinner with some North of England Brexiteers, including one Irishwoman who was on an anti immigration rant, not even comprehending that she was, in reality, an immigrant herself. I also spoke to an English pensioner (with quite limited means beyond a house sale windfall) who lives in Spain full time. I asked him was he worried about his status and his attitude was "the Spanish need us". He appears to have been living, without properly declaring himself a resident or contributing to social insurance, in Spain for at least 10 years (this came up because a hospital queried his use of an EHIC card while being resident) and sees no reason why "ex pats" should have any concerns at all.

Also he has been moving any money he has to GBP accounts "for when the Euro collapses ..."

Then I got the usual patronising arguments about why Ireland should join Brexit or even rejoin the UK.

I basically spent the whole evening just avoiding the subject/s.

There are a lot of people in for a rather unpleasant encounter with reality.

devnull

EdgeCase wrote: »

I had the misfortune of having to have dinner with some North of England Brexiteers, including one Irishwoman who was on an anti immigration rant, not even comprehending that she was, in reality, an immigrant herself. I also spoke to an English pensioner (with quite limited means beyond a house sale windfall) who lives in Spain full time. I asked him was he worried about his status and his attitude was "the Spanish need us". He appears to have been living, without declaring himself a resident or contributing to social insurance, in Spain for at least 10 years and sees no reason why "ex pats" should have any concerns at all.

It's complete delusions.

The other thing with the housing market is the same way. One of my relatives stated to me that Muslim men will get 3 council flats if he has three wives and that the EU forces the UK government to give such people houses over British people because of the fact that these people are deemed at risk and they fake passports and documents and pretend to be homeless and have kids since they will get houses that way without any delay.

You then have the argument about how the Muslim person gets the house and the white Christian person does not get the house and how that is unfair, even though the system doesn't take the faith of the person into account whatsoever and it is done based on need but these people say it's wrong that they get a house over a white person, even though that's not how they are decided.

Essentially what these people seem to be asking for is a system that puts certain groups of people ahead of another and only givens one group something if everyone in another group have already got it which itself is discrimination, which they usually follow up with saying they are not racist but they believe that British jobs are for British workers and all the usual lines.

However when you start to talk about a British immigrant, sorry, I mean ex-pat in Spain, they then start to say it is not fair if they are discriminated against because they are British as that is racist.....Hypocrisy much.

Igotadose

I recommend "Mistakes were made but not by us", an excellent book that explains Cognitive Dissonance. It explains what you're hearing from your relatives about Brexit. And what I hear from mine about Trump

briany

EdgeCase wrote: »

You can see where this is going: a car crash, no deal brexit that will be blamed on everyone else.

If I'd helped cause a no-deal Brexit that led to economic meltdown, I'd probably try to avoid blame, too. Of course, I'd have also *fully* convinced myself that it really was other people's fault.

The magnitude of a bad Brexit would be such that just about anybody would be running for cover.

EdgeCase

There's a huge issue in England with blaming "European regulations" on pretty much any annoying issue real or imagined.

I've had arguments asking people (in business) to cite (with the aid of Google) what EU regulation has created whatever situation they're complaining about and they never seem to be able to come up with an answer.

It's come from a culture of officialdom using EU regulations as a catch all excuse for all unpleasant or unreasonable local rules and from ridicule of the EU with genuinely fake comic stories about European rules either lampooning them out of context or just entirely making things up for comic value.

The other one that I've always observed has been UK media outlets quoting "European politicians" say .... and when you dig you discover it's some obscure extreme party with 1 MEP or something equally unrepresentative. They don't tell you that so, the assumption in Britian is that is an EU statement.

Because that stuff went entirely without challenge for decades it's now probably too late to undo the damage.

devnull

And there is the other thing which doesn't help where when the EU does something that does benefit people in the UK the fact that it is the result of an EU regulation or policy, is never mentioned to the British people and the Government will come out and say they are putting new rules in place, despite the fact it's not even them who are doing it.

EdgeCase

devnull wrote: »

And there is the other thing which doesn't help where when the EU does something that does benefit people in the UK the fact that it is the result of an EU regulation or policy, is never mentioned to the British people and the Government will come out and say they are putting new rules in place, despite the fact it's not even them who are doing it.

There were blatent examples of it recently with the Tories claiming credit for EU consumer protection rules.

badtoro

devnull wrote: »

And there is the other thing which doesn't help where when the EU does something that does benefit people in the UK the fact that it is the result of an EU regulation or policy, is never mentioned to the British people and the Government will come out and say they are putting new rules in place, despite the fact it's not even them who are doing it.

Indeed, what have the Romans ever done for us spirings to mind.

Kermit.de.frog

The problem here has been building for some time.

When you think about it for the last 40 years in the west there has been no consequences for voting certain ways. So in other words people seem to have got used to the idea that you can vote irregularly or against your own interest (Trump, Brexit etc) without any consequences just because it makes you feel better.

Brexit may be the stick that breaks that camel's back.

People seem shocked by the realistion that there may actually be real consequences for them this time as a result of the vote.

One good thing about this is the realisation that your vote does have consequences.

Trasna1

EdgeCase wrote: »

There were blatent examples of it recently with the Tories claiming credit for EU consumer protection rules.

Well, that's not strictly correct..The UK government is responsible for translating EU directives into UK law, so they can take credit for that.

joeysoap

Trasna1 wrote: »

Well, that's not strictly correct..The UK government is responsible for translating EU directives into UK law, so they can take credit for that.

But can they legitimately claim, as they recently did, that the conservatives were responsible?

trellheim

Does the UK realise it's in a deep constitutional and democratic crisis ? It's whole political polity is focused around something undeliverable. The UK cannot leave the EU without catastrophic consequences.

It's electorate don't seem to have realised that, and will likely elect a similar parliament. What do they do ?

As Conan Doyle wrote for Sherlock

"Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth."

The only remaining thing is the catastrophic consequences and that is the train we are on unless someone changes something.

Imreoir2

trellheim wrote: »

As Conan Doyle wrote for Sherlock

"Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth."

The only remaining thing is the catastrophic consequences and that is the train we are on unless someone changes something.

I'm personally pinning my hopes on the seeming gauntlet May has trown down to Mogg et al, "it's my way or no Brexit". If she forces them into a heave against her, and wins, she might be in a position to bring the UK to the table with realistic proposals.
It's a long shot though, no-deal disaster is still more likely.

katiemmm

Brexit is rubbish

Water John

I agree with you Katie, but we're hoping for a bit more of an indepth discussion on here, on the subject.

30+ years of poisoning the well has left the understanding in Britain of what the EU is/does/isn't/doesn't do absolutely all over the shop.

A useful scapegoat for policy makers for years, a useful scapegoat for all societal ills. Cameron discovered this to his horror after making use of such a strategy, but by then it was far too late.

I live here, and I can see no way that the misinformation can be cleared up in anywhere near the time required for them not to make an absolute arse of this all. Moral hazard suggests that perhaps, just as the US will hopefully learn from Trump's presidency, that maybe the UK needs to learn a not-so-fun lesson. The pragmatist in me finds this appalling though. A huge huge waste of time, resources, money, effort, all to un-learn misinformation and arrive back to square 1 after it all.

An Ciarraioch

Sadly, judging by the polls, it seems your average Irish person is more aware of the consequences of Brexit than the British electorate:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1018426064337494016

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1018422232534732800

trellheim

f she forces them into a heave against her, and wins, she might be in a position to bring the UK to the table with realistic proposals.
It's a long shot though, no-deal disaster is still more likely.

The Trade bill on Mon/Tues will give a useful indicator of the heave potential , its up for all remaining stages on Tuesday morning .. JRM has been making noises these last few days

briany

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I'm personally pinning my hopes on the seeming gauntlet May has trown down to Mogg et al, "it's my way or no Brexit". If she forces them into a heave against her, and wins, she might be in a position to bring the UK to the table with realistic proposals.
It's a long shot though, no-deal disaster is still more likely.

Mogg & friends will not be directly challenging Theresa May. They don't need to. The have a more terrible weapon in their arsenal than that - they have about half the public and the right-wing press on their side. In the event of any soft deal, they can whip these into a frenzy, pull the ripcord on Conservative divisions and ensure the party is unelectable for a generation or more, or whatever is left of the party anyway.

It's with this threat that they're able to virtually paralyse the process.

Capt'n Midnight

Just a reminder of the EU reaction to the Chequers Statement.


EU warns states to step up preparations for no-deal Brexit scenario

A stark and detailed internal EU document has warned all member states, companies and stakeholders to step up preparation for a no-deal Brexit scenario.

The 15-page draft, seen by RTÉ News, issues strongly worded guidelines to the 27 member states to deepen contingency planning for the UK crashing out of the EU in March next year without a deal.

It paints a picture of long lines of freight traffic at ports, and implications for pharmaceuticals, financial services and aviation.

Capt'n Midnight

The British overseas territory of Anguilla is considering leaving the UK


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43126719

Anguilla's closest gateway to the world lies four miles across the sea in the French half of the island of St Martin, which is officially part of France, and therefore an "outermost region" of the EU.

Anguilla relies on access to St Martin for many of its daily necessities - from food supplies to MRI scans to the postal service. The nearest international airport lies on the Dutch side of St Martin.

...
Anguilla is also mostly ineligible for British development aid, and is therefore highly dependent on money coming from the EU for more than a third of its budget.

Capt'n Midnight

"they need us more than we need them"
The German car industry to the rescue ?


BDI says no.


Prepare for no-deal Brexit, German business groups tell members

Havockk

How could anyone dream a trade deal can be negotiated between the UK and the US when this sums up the scale of incompetence displayed by both parties...

An Ciarraioch

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The British overseas territory of Anguilla is considering leaving the UK


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43126719

Wouldn't be the first time - they also did a UDI in the Sixties:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Anguilla

lawred2

Why are we talking about Ireland?

That would be a common refrain from the ignorant/reckless Brexiteers...

briany

lawred2 wrote: »

Why are we talking about Ireland?

Because the golf there is superb. Just tremendous.

If there are any decent golf courses that straddle the border, then if Trump finds out, he may intervene to stop a hard Brexit :pac:

An Claidheamh

EdgeCase wrote: »

I had the misfortune of having to have dinner with some North of England Brexiteers, including one Irishwoman who was on an anti immigration rant, not even comprehending that she was, in reality, an immigrant herself. I also spoke to an English pensioner (with quite limited means beyond a house sale windfall) who lives in Spain full time. I asked him was he worried about his status and his attitude was "the Spanish need us". He appears to have been living, without properly declaring himself a resident or contributing to social insurance, in Spain for at least 10 years (this came up because a hospital queried his use of an EHIC card while being resident) and sees no reason why "ex pats" should have any concerns at all.

Also he has been moving any money he has to GBP accounts "for when the Euro collapses ..."

Then I got the usual patronising arguments about why Ireland should join Brexit or even rejoin the UK.

I basically spent the whole evening just avoiding the subject/s.

There are a lot of people in for a rather unpleasant encounter with reality.

Noticed at few people on Facebook, either of Irish descent or Irish immigrants to Britain, and they would be typical Brexit types - Britain is best at everything, they resent Ireland, blaming EU and Varadkar - they're no loss.

They're idiots who have no problem with anti-Irish tabloids, etc. They buy them regularly.

Generations ago, they'd be the Irish royal cap doffers, who'd fill the ranks of the British army, accept second class status.

You're other point just shows it was always about British nationalism.

The most obvious answer is usually the correct one.

Infini

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The problem here has been building for some time.

When you think about it for the last 40 years in the west there has been no consequences for voting certain ways. So in other words people seem to have got used to the idea that you can vote irregularly or against your own interest (Trump, Brexit etc) without any consequences just because it makes you feel better.

Brexit may be the stick that breaks that camel's back.

People seem shocked by the realistion that there may actually be real consequences for them this time as a result of the vote.

One good thing about this is the realisation that your vote does have consequences.

I think realistically at some point the English are gonna have to face the fact that they'd sleepwalked themselves into an unmitigated disaster. I still feel they'll at the end of this either end up with

1) Abandoning this farce under the threat of an economic disaster.
2) Being forced to take a deal on the EU's term's because they wasted too much time on this.
3) Crashing out and risking their country disintegrating..

In term's of a crash it's no secret that if 3 happens and it's a Hard Brexit then it's most likely that NI will reunify with the rest of Ireland within 10 year's and Scotland will be a Republic as well. Hard Brexit will be the most focused example of Westminster's stupidity and the UK's utter dysfunctional setup as a state. Should Scotland become independent there's no doubt that the EU will fast track them back into the EU it has been hinted in the past that it would be a fairly straightforward process since most of their laws and such would be still at EU standards and adoption of the Euro would actually help them save time setting up their own currency. As for NI since it would end under Dublin's umbrella it would just be a matter of sorting out the finer details.

If 2 happen's then it won't be as a severe threat as a No Deal but they'll find themselves having no say at all in any EU policies and should they decide to change their minds about the whole thing they'll find themselves basically crawling back in with no exemptions since they blew it with this fiasco. They'll have to face the fact that they traded a better deal for a poorer one needlessly and it's their own fault for using the EU as a scapegoat for their OWN failures instead of actually dealing with the situation. Ultimately Brexit will go down as the event that ended the UK and it would be no small Irony that they ended up with an external border with Scotland in the EU on their island and the Irish border ended up disappearing entirely a century or so after it went up.

Even if 1 happen's and they abandon this failed exercise in total stupidity they'll still have suffered needless economic damage as it's unlikely businesses will ever move back under the current political climate. On top of that they'll NEED to seriously look and overhaul the defective and utter broken system of their country that has landed them in this situation. This would include reigning in the toxic part's of the media like the Daily Fail, Shítpost Express and that which have contributed to this situation by publishing lie's, untruths and distorted information and passing this off as fact when it's basically Ideological Propaganda and unfit for publishing. As for their political system they'll have to face the music that FPTP help's make a total mess of their system as the conservative's would likely not be in this mess if instead of having to pandering to the UKIP voter's to stay in power they were to let them get elected and keep their toxicity from spreading to their own party. Hiding them doesn't work you need to call them out on every single bad point they make. They also have to accept that coalition's are the way foward for most countries and not a failure of their party and trying to win all the vote's is unlikely nowadays unless it's an issue of significant importance.