Brexit discussion thread IV

Beanntraigheach

Panrich wrote: »

The DUP are being outflanked here and their stance is looking ridiculous at this point.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/12/eu-makes-direct-appeal-northern-irish-firms-brexit-backstop

It looks like the EU is offering NI the best of both worlds and that should be something that the unionist community would grab with both arms. A deal that allows free trade with both the EU and the 'mainland' UK gives NI business an advantage over the rest of the island. It also gives an iron-clad reason to maintain the status quo and the union in perpetuity.

Voting down the deal against the wishes of the people and the business community is a folly that makes no strategic sense and could fatally weaken the union they want to defend.

If the part in bold above is true, I find it hard to understand why either Sinn Féin, or Fine Gael, would support this outcome.

J Mysterio

Coveney laying it out quite strongly to poor Faisal Islam, seemed to kind of shock him. Bit surprised myself really, Coveney certainly wasnt holding back! We need a bit of hard reality though.

The UK are 'putting a gun to their head and saying 'i'm going to pull the trigger unless you give me what I want'.

https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1050844174382243841

Its so interesting to see the lad here. England has never been so interested in this country. Kudos to him though as he is not puttingna spin on his coverage and is honest and fair in his reporting.

J Mysterio

The whole process has been very damaging to international relations. Tweets like this are sprouting up:

'I would ask all uk not buy Irish produce until they respect our right to leave eu,he is openly trying blackmail remember this my friend you reep what you sow..'

https://mobile.twitter.com/1daneman/status/1050870344804896768

Maybe I need an internet break.

Professor Moriarty

J Mysterio wrote: »

Coveney laying it out quite strongly to poor Faisal Islam, seemed to kind of shock him. Bit surprised myself really, Coveney certainly wasnt holding back! We need a bit of hard reality though.

The UK are 'putting a gun to their head and saying 'i'm going to pull the trigger unless you give me what I want'.

https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1050844174382243841

Its so interesting to see the lad here. England has never been so interested in this country. Kudos to him though as he is not puttingna spin on his coverage and is honest and fair in his reporting.

Funnily enough, I think that Sky's reportage has been relatively unbiased and recently became pro Remain overall. Faisal Islam has played a major part in that.

J Mysterio

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Funnily enough, I think that Sky's reportage has been relatively unbiased and recently became pro Remain overall. Faisal Islam has played a major part in that.

Darragh McCaffrey was alright too before jumping to... Euronews!

Charles Babbage

listermint wrote: »

Farage making a show on late late as usual

No more of a *** than that snake Halligan, who knows very well he is telling porkies.

Beanntraigheach wrote:

If the part in bold above is true, I find it hard to understand why either Sinn Féin, or Fine Gael, would support this outcome.

Because it make it more likely that NI can pay its own way, which is increasingly the main obstacle to Irish unity.

Beanntraigheach

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Because it make it more likely that NI can pay its own way, which is increasingly the main obstacle to Irish unity.

But if its 'special status' is the very reason NI's economy has improved enough to enable it to pay its own way, why would they ever vote to give it up?
Makes no sense to me from a pro-UI perspective.

Charles Babbage

Beanntraigheach wrote: »

But if its 'special status' is the very reason NI's economy has improved enough to enable it to pay its own way, why would they ever vote to give it up?
Makes no sense to me from a pro-UI perspective.

Because the unionists and British will be continually proposing cack handed schemes to hold them back. Or perhaps the British will just rejoin the EU.

Enzokk

J Mysterio wrote: »

The whole process has been very damaging to international relations. Tweets like this are sprouting up:

'I would ask all uk not buy Irish produce until they respect our right to leave eu,he is openly trying blackmail remember this my friend you reep what you sow..'

https://mobile.twitter.com/1daneman/status/1050870344804896768

Maybe I need an internet break.

That is just some random person spouting crap. Take a listen to this call from James O'Brien to get an idea what you are dealing with when someone just, "wants to leave", whatever that means.

James O'Brien's Brexit Call Labelled The Funniest (And Scariest) Yet

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Because it make it more likely that NI can pay its own way, which is increasingly the main obstacle to Irish unity.

But that will never happen that was indicated in the tweet. The NI cannot both be in the EU and have unfettered access to the UK market unless the UK has the same access to the EU market. The whole fight the DUP is having right now is about ensuring that the UK and NI doesn't diverge.

The deal being prepared at the moment is, seemingly, that the whole of the UK stays in the customs union until a trade deal is concluded. If that trade deal is done the problem of the GFA and NI doesn't go away and when it is concluded and the UK still wants to have its own trade deals it means they will not be in the customs union any longer but NI would be.

This part had been obvious from the day the result was known and nothing has changed it. It will be true until there is a referendum and the result is unifying Ireland and NI.

murphaph

Beanntraigheach wrote: »

But if its 'special status' is the very reason NI's economy has improved enough to enable it to pay its own way, why would they ever vote to give it up?
Makes no sense to me from a pro-UI perspective.

Personally I expect the UK economy to take a hammer blow from Brexit. In this event then it would be NI's ability to trade with the EU that it would fall back on.

As time goes on the Barnett money will simply be reduced as the entire UK economy stalls and money is simply not available.

NI will then be forced to the private sector and to exporting to the EU and to countries with which the EU has FTAs (the EU is decades ahead of the UK in this respect).

All of this combined would see the NI economy transformed into something resembling the economy of the south, at which point the cost of unification becomes moot.

That's one theory anyway. I do believe it is more likely that unification will come this way than any other to be honest and I'd be happy to see things working out like that. It's certainly a better prospect than the NI economy imploding behind a hard land border.

20silkcut

Will the Irish govt/EU bend on the no hard border stance.

I would bet that the unionist desire to remain close to the UK is a lot stronger than Irish desire for unity. A quick glance through history proves this.

murphaph

20silkcut wrote: »

Will the Irish govt/EU bend on the no hard border stance.

I would bet that the unionist desire to remain close to the UK is a lot stronger than Irish desire for unity. A quick glance through history proves this.

But nobody is asking for Irish unity right now.

Enzokk

20silkcut wrote: »

Will the Irish govt/EU bend on the no hard border stance.

I would bet that the unionist desire to remain close to the UK is a lot stronger than Irish desire for unity. A quick glance through history proves this.

murphaph wrote: »

But nobody is asking for Irish unity right now.

Yes, the EU isn't about unity neither is the Irish Government. We are just interested in keeping to the terms of the GFA to keep the peace. The fact that this may lead to unity should have been obvious to everyone if there was a Brexit and makes the DUP support for Brexit seem ill judged.

20silkcut

murphaph wrote: »

But nobody is asking for Irish unity right now.

Sinn Fein ???

Should re-phrase to say that unionist desire to remain close to the UK is stronger than Irish desire to maintain a soft border the GFA etc etc.
The current soft border is the closest we have to Irish unity since 1922.
Clearly the unionists are far more passionate on their stance than Irish people especially in the south are about the current soft border.
I’m sure there are die hard s in the border regions who would salivate at the future prospect of attacking isolated border posts. And I’m sure there are die hard unionists who would equally salivate at the return of the British army to defend loyal ulster.


Most people I talk to down here in the south are far more worried about the east-west situation.

BonnieSituation

20silkcut wrote: »

Will the Irish govt/EU bend on the no hard border stance.

I would bet that the unionist desire to remain close to the UK is a lot stronger than Irish desire for unity. A quick glance through history proves this.

Gas

zapitastas

20silkcut wrote: »

Sinn Fein ???

Should re-phrase to say that unionist desire to remain close to the UK is stronger than Irish desire to maintain a soft border the GFA etc etc.
The current soft border is the closest we have to Irish unity since 1922.
Clearly the unionists are far more passionate on their stance than Irish people especially in the south are about the current soft border.
I’m sure there are die hard s in the border regions who would salivate at the future prospect of attacking isolated border posts. And I’m sure there are die hard unionists who would equally salivate at the return of the British army to defend loyal ulster.


Most people I talk to down here in the south are far more worried about the east-west situation.

I am not sure what country you are from but you have a pretty poor grasp of the geopolitics and the economic implications of reinstating a hard border. If you take the border counties on both sides alone they make up a sizable rump of the north and Midlands. They have an enormous interest in maintaining a frictionless border. Otherwise the impact on local businesses and in particular the Agribusiness sector will be significant. In an area that had been starved of investment for decades the thoughts of returning to a hard border will be met with a large amount of dismay and hostility. The Irish government has recognised this from the start. They will hopefully hold firm

20silkcut

zapitastas wrote: »

I am not sure what country you are from but you have a pretty poor grasp of the geopolitics and the economic implications of reinstating a hard border. If you take the border counties on both sides alone they make up a sizable rump of the north and Midlands. They have an enormous interest in maintaining a frictionless border. Otherwise the impact on local businesses and in particular the Agribusiness sector will be significant. In an area that had been starved of investment for decades the thoughts of returning to a hard border will be met with a large amount of dismay and hostility. The Irish government has recognised this from the start. They will hopefully hold firm

Yeah sure haven’t we a great historical record of holding firm against unionism.


The very existence of the NI state and its deep incursions into nationalist regions shows that we have been less than firm when it comes to Northern Ireland historically.
There was zero political will in the republic during the troubles to do little other than not stand idly by.

BonnieSituation

20silkcut wrote: »

Yeah sure haven’t we a great historical record of holding firm against unionism.


The very existence of the NI state and its deep incursions into nationalist regions shows that we have been less than firm when it comes to Northern Ireland historically.
There was zero political will in the republic during the troubles to do little other than not stand idly by.

It's like I'm living in some sort of Twilight zone.

Did you read what you wrote at any point?

20silkcut

DUP: no divergence in any way from UK

IRL/EU : no hard border on the island of Ireland

Something has to give.


If you look at the historical evidence you can see what way it ends.

FrancieBrady

20silkcut wrote: »

DUP: no divergence in any way from UK

IRL/EU : no hard border on the island of Ireland

Something has to give.


If you look at the historical evidence you can see what way it ends.

Ordinarily I would agree that Dublin governments of the past didn't care about the north and have traditionally 'doffed the hat' to Westminster on northern affairs. But because of the rise of SF in the south they cannot afford to do that anymore. It is after all the reason why FG FF have practically merged. You also have to factor in the harm that Brexit will do to the south.

It's new territory for a FG led government but so far they are doing ok regardless of the motives.
It remains to be seen if allowing the talks to proceed after the shambles of December was a good idea or not.
Simon's knock down of a time limit suggests they are holding firm.

Fionn1952

20silkcut wrote: »

DUP: no divergence in any way from UK

IRL/EU : no hard border on the island of Ireland

Something has to give.


If you look at the historical evidence you can see what way it ends.

I'd imagine the party of, "Never! Never! Nev....well ok" would certainly stick to historical trends.

Being originally from one of the NI border counties (from the very same town as Arlene Foster in fact), I still visit quite regularly and can tell you there's zero appetite for a hard border from either community. The DUP may want to make a song and dance about things, but Arlene knows the farmers along the border would be very rapid to turn on her.

20silkcut

Fionn1952 wrote: »

I'd imagine the party of, "Never! Never! Nev....well ok" would certainly stick to historical trends.

Being originally from one of the NI border counties (from the very same town as Arlene Foster in fact), I still visit quite regularly and can tell you there's zero appetite for a hard border from either community. The DUP may want to make a song and dance about things, but Arlene knows the farmers along the border would be very rapid to turn on her.

Hopefully they won’t be slow learners and drag it out for 25 years this time.

fash

But it's not really the Irish government versus the DUP. it's the Irish government (pretty much) versus the UK government. Are those in GB so strongly in favour of ensuring exact regulatory matching between NI and GB that they are willing to go to no deal?
(When push comes to shove - or after a no deal Brexit when the only way out of chaos is to live up to/accept its prior binding commitments).

Imreoir2

20silkcut wrote: »

DUP: no divergence in any way from UK

IRL/EU : no hard border on the island of Ireland

Something has to give.


If you look at the historical evidence you can see what way it ends.

Historically the weaker party had to give way, this time the UK is the weaker party, we will see if the pattern holds.

BonnieSituation

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Ordinarily I would agree that Dublin governments of the past didn't care about the north and have traditionally 'doffed the hat' to Westminster on northern affairs. But because of the rise of SF in the south they cannot afford to do that anymore. It is after all the reason why FG FF have practically merged. You also have to factor in the harm that Brexit will do to the south.

It's new territory for a FG led government but so far they are doing ok regardless of the motives.
It remains to be seen if allowing the talks to proceed after the shambles of December was a good idea or not.
Simon's knock down of a time limit suggests they are holding firm.

It's okay Francis you can give FG compliments without qualifications.

20silkcut

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Historically the weaker party had to give way, this time the UK is the weaker party, we will see if the pattern holds.

The mandate for brexit still seems pretty strong to me. There is no sign of any big anti brexit groundswell in Britain. No sign of any significant political players emerging to weaken or change the GB stance on leaving. It’s telling that the most significant new movement in Britain in recent times has been leave means leave.

The DUP lines are “blood red”

How red are the IRL/EU lines?
Who looks the strongest ?

judeboy101

20silkcut wrote: »

The mandate for brexit still seems pretty strong to me. There is no sign of any big anti brexit groundswell in Britain. No sign of any significant political players emerging to weaken or change the GB stance on leaving. It’s telling that the most significant new movement in Britain in recent times has been leave means leave.

The DUP lines are “blood red”

How red are the IRL/EU lines?
Who looks the strongest ?

I'm hoping the IRL/EU lines are green, not red.

First Up

20silkcut wrote:

How red are the IRL/EU lines? Who looks the strongest ?

The EU by a country mile.

FrancieBrady

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It's okay Francis you can give FG compliments without qualifications.

In Francieland compliments always come with qualifications!

An Ciarraioch

Apologies for the Sun link, but James Forsyth (who usually writes for the Spectator) has an intriguing article on UK Cabinet developments - no backstop agreed next week, and May is poised to ditch the DUP:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7484404/theresa-may-brexit-irish-backstop-dilemma/amp/?__twitter_impression=true