Brexit discussion thread IV

Trasna1

demfad wrote: »

The only model that could keep some kind of economy afloat after a hard Brexit is the low tax low regulation one. The Billionaire class particularly the dodgier kind will make a killing. Why else do they want to be outside Customs and Regulatory Unions?

Look at top Brexiteer Lord Ashcroft suggesting uber dodgy Malta as a port in the storm during Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/29/lord-ashcroft-praises-malta-as-base-for-uk-business-during-brexit


As regards fluctuations in currency this wouldn't exactly be new to Brexiteers.
Farage and his chums made a killing on the night of the referendum when Farage condeded defeat twice (first was 4 minutes after polling closed) while he already knew a survation poll had leave at 52:48.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash

These guys care about controlling the rules to suit themselves. Same in the US, same in Russia.

The slogan 'take back control' is not really all about taking back control from the EU.
It is about taking any control the EU had back, and using the power to take control from the rest of the UK population to make money for themselves and their ilk.

Ashcroft wants Malta to get business because it doesn't want the big EU countries or Ireland to see a Brexit dividend.

In fairness, it's not like we Ireland has the right to be calling out any Nation on tax dodgyness

J Mysterio

ambro25 wrote: »

With apologies for the ‘pause’ in the flow of conversation, today I’ve been mulling a bit about a spat with Mrs ambro25 last night, over my cheering the Belgian goal (she’s Brit, for decades we’d been supporting the UK or France).

I’ve been trying to express to her how I feel deep down

God bless you... best of luck!

trellheim

From Tusk - summary of EUCO

On Brexit. The EU27 has taken note of what has been achieved so far. However, there is a great deal of work ahead, and the most difficult tasks are still unresolved. If we want to reach a deal in October we need quick progress. This is the last call to lay the cards on the table.

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2018/06/29/remarks-by-president-donald-tusk-on-the-european-council-meeting-of-28-june-2018/

An Ciarraioch

trellheim wrote: »

From Tusk - summary of EUCO




http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2018/06/29/remarks-by-president-donald-tusk-on-the-european-council-meeting-of-28-june-2018/

Laura Kuenssberg also reporting that Barnier wants to talk to the British negotiators next week.

An Ciarraioch

Foster thread fixed above.

Dymo

trellheim wrote: »

From Tusk - summary of EUCO




http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2018/06/29/remarks-by-president-donald-tusk-on-the-european-council-meeting-of-28-june-2018/

It sounded like he's telling the UK to say what their going to do or else just walk away it's getting ridiculous at this stage.

Imreoir2

Dymo wrote: »

It sounded like he's telling the UK to say what their going to do or else just walk away it's getting ridiculous at this stage.

Really, I think he is begging the UK not to come out with the same old bull**** that has already been rejected, but now in white paper format.

An Ciarraioch

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Really, I think he is begging the UK not to come out with the same old bull**** that has already been rejected, but now in white paper format.

As is Leo:

[url]ttps://mobile.twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1012697448014204929[/url]

Leroy42

Leo made the point that he would have expected the UK had a plan before the vote, but that 2 years on they still are working on a draft of it!

The clear message coming from all the EU statements, is that the UK has been dragging its feet, as not lived up to commitments in terms of timelines etc and that the EU have run out of patience.

By stating that all countries should prepare for hard brexit, they are throwing that threat straight back at the UK.

The other takeaway is that the EU leaders spent 10 hours in talks about the migration crisis and less than an hour on Brexit. What that says to me is that A) they don't see Brexit as a political issue that needs to be dealt with and they are more than happy to let Barnier and Tusk handle it whichever way they are. Its the second in particular that should concern the UK. Part of the plan was that the UK could try to divide the EU and so get others working for them. They know Ireland isn't budging (hence the thinly veiled threats) but they would have hoped others would have at least called for a deal.

It seems that, at the moment at least, the EU is aligned on the process and prepared to accept the outcome

trellheim

The other takeaway is that the EU leaders spent 10 hours in talks about the migration crisis and less than an hour on Brexit.

Migration crises has options to discuss and with Italy and the other nations getting jiggy with it some jaw-jaw is needed.

Brexit SHOULD have had options to discuss but instead its a clown car driving round and round. Most of that hour was on translating a memo "get the finger out" into 27 languages.

Imreoir2

Seemingly it took less than one minute for the 27 leaders to agree their statement on Brexit.

Infini

Dymo wrote: »

It sounded like he's telling the UK to say what their going to do or else just walk away it's getting ridiculous at this stage.

Everyone with any reasonable level of interest and knowledge knows the UK has nothing realistic to negotiate at this point. Its either accept the EU's terms or its out on your asses. At this stage it's pretty clear that it's going to be a hard brexit and on day one pretty much everything is gonna come to a halt in the UK. As for NI I dont expect there will be enough people to enforce any kind of border but goods traffic will most likely be stopped from travelling.

It will be a mess but its one the UK will pay a heavy price for because they refused to see sense.

Imreoir2

Infini wrote: »

Everyone with any reasonable level of interest and knowledge knows the UK has nothing realistic to negotiate at this point. Its either accept the EU's terms or its out on your asses. At this stage it's pretty clear that it's going to be a hard brexit and on day one pretty much everything is gonna come to a halt in the UK. As for NI I dont expect there will be enough people to enforce any kind of border but goods traffic will most likely be stopped from travelling.

It will be a mess but its one the UK will pay a heavy price for because they refused to see sense.

The border will probably be a token excersise that will be run until the UK hopefully sees sense and comes back to the table with realistic proposals.

Spanish Eyes

The hubristic idiots in the UK should have just gone for broke on day one. Instead, they have cost business a lot of money and headaches, and cost the taxpayer for setting up the Department of Brexit (who are ignored AFAIS).

So now, two years down the road and it may be crash out time. Such a waste of time and money and the resulting polarisation of people in the UK.

Don't see any benefits to Brexit for the UK myself, but Brexiteers still see no problem with a crash out. well considering the UK had no negotiating skills or prep/planning for this for over two years, I'm beginning to think it is inevitable. Sadly.

Unless someone pulls a rabbit from the bag or something.

An Claidheamh

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Laura Kuenssberg also reporting that Barnier wants to talk to the British negotiators next week.

Hopefully it will be an ultimatum.

Which would help focus the mind, grasp the nettle for both sides and trigger an election in Britain.

Also, if there is a no deal Brexit.

With no border on the British side, under WTO rules (which they don't understand) they would be open to all countries.

Ireland/EU could call the their bluff and allow an open door to Britain and essentially have it swarmed.

I was just wondering is there any precedent in history where this has happened?

An Ciarraioch

Varadkar's presser here, but also dominating UK reports:

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/0629/974085-brussels-summit/

McGiver

Infini wrote: »

Dymo wrote: »

It sounded like he's telling the UK to say what their going to do or else just walk away it's getting ridiculous at this stage.

It will be a mess but its one the UK will pay a heavy price for because they refused to see sense.

I don't want to sound like an alarmist or conspiracy theorist, but don't forget the UK possess nuclear weapons. I hope they won't use that as a threat, but with these Trumpist lunatics running the show - you never know. The EU will be blamed for sure.

Patser

Interesting piece here on FT, even being mentioned on BBC business section.

Davis has only met Barnier for a grand total of 4 hours this year. No wonder the EU is giving out about sluggish engagement.

https://www.ft.com/content/9e3aacf0-7b9c-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d

Imreoir2

McGiver wrote: »

I don't want to sound like an alarmist or conspiracy theorist, but don't forget the UK possess nuclear weapons. I hope they won't use that as a threat, but with these Trumpist lunatics running the show - you never know. The EU will be blamed for sure.

You seem to forget that we have the FCA!

Capt'n Midnight

McGiver wrote: »

I don't want to sound like an alarmist or conspiracy theorist, but don't forget the UK possess nuclear weapons. I hope they won't use that as a threat, but with these Trumpist lunatics running the show - you never know. The EU will be blamed for sure.

It's really simple, the US won't let them. #takebackcontrol


And the US can turn off GPS, just like the EU can turn off Galileo , the Russian have Glonass and the Chinese have BeiDou.

It's one of the reasons the UK is willing to spend £5 Bn on their own gps satellite system.


And besides the French have full control of their nukes.




The UK doesn't have the upper hand in anything.

Leroy42

So Davies and his department have given a response to the request by Barnier to have a meeting on Monday.

"This is a gimmick designed for the benefit of TV cameras rather than the negotiations," the source said.

They also said

"A better approach would be to engage with our proposed solutions, and deliver on their commitment to accelerated discussions about the future - we’re publishing a White Paper and look forward to discussing it."

Apart from the fact that they claim the EU should stick to a commitment to accelerate the discussion whilst at the same time refuing to meet with them its just weird. Now I'm far from an expert on international negotiations, but what point is there is antagonising the EU the their chief negotiator? They have basically called it a PR stunt and that he has failed to do his job.

Even if that were true, even if they think it, what possibly advantage can be gained by annoying the person you need to get concessions from? I get it that most of the time they are playing to the domestic audience, but there really isn't any time for that anymore, they need to start taking this seriously.

The fact that they didn't even have the white paper ready prior to the summit shows how seriously they are taking the whole thing. It must be terribly frustrating to be part of the EU team and the likes of Leo and Tusk which need to maintain the diplomatic language but must be fed up with the whole thing at this stage.

Imreoir2

Leroy42 wrote: »

So Davies and his department have given a response to the request by Barnier to have a meeting on Monday.



They also said

Apart from the fact that they claim the EU should stick to a commitment to accelerate the discussion whilst at the same time refuing to meet with them its just weird. Now I'm far from an expert on international negotiations, but what point is there is antagonising the EU the their chief negotiator? They have basically called it a PR stunt and that he has failed to do his job.

Even if that were true, even if they think it, what possibly advantage can be gained by annoying the person you need to get concessions from? I get it that most of the time they are playing to the domestic audience, but there really isn't any time for that anymore, they need to start taking this seriously.

The fact that they didn't even have the white paper ready prior to the summit shows how seriously they are taking the whole thing. It must be terribly frustrating to be part of the EU team and the likes of Leo and Tusk which need to maintain the diplomatic language but must be fed up with the whole thing at this stage.

Right, looks like the talks are going to break down before the white paper is published then.

Edit: BBC reporting that a request for talks next week had been rejected by UK in private, so Barnier repeated the request in front of ceamras at the summit. Explains the gimmick accusation from Davis, I guess.

Capt'n Midnight

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If the UK crashes out, it will cost everyone in the EU cash money. I see no reason why the EU should allow the worst, most expensive Brexit - an uncontrolled crashout, if the alternative is simply to extend current arrangements and smooth out the transition so that it costs the EU less and does less damage to the EU.

You're asking the EU to give up it's principles for a couple of quid ?


For starters Sterling is worth less that it used to be and Brexit hasn't happened yet.

Most of the trade is two way, and tariffs will offset taxes.

The haves in the UK will still buy BMW's and the have-nots won't.


The polls say that we'd pay an extra few billion a year to fund NI , that and our history would suggest that we'd take some hardship rather than roll over for the benefit of the UK. Also we are a lot more self sufficient in food than they are. Gas not so much, but hopefully the weather in March will be warmer than this year , and Europe can cut off the UK too.

FrancieBrady

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Right, looks like the talks are going to break down before the white paper is published then.

That seems to be the agenda here if those remarks are correct. Or else the UK have gotten a back door open somehow and are secretly negotiating something.

Spanish Eyes

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That seems to be the agenda here if those remarks are correct. Or else the UK have gotten a back door open somehow and are secretly negotiating something.

I'm getting a spidey feeling that it's in the bag, but shush, don't tell anyone in case they all decide to leave tomorrow :eek:

I'm very confused by all this lack of planning and negotiation by the British. Must be something under the surface. But maybe not and they really are just totally incompetent hubristic fools. Time will tell.

Inquitus

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I'm getting a spidey feeling that it's in the bag, but shush, don't tell anyone in case they all decide to leave tomorrow :eek:

I'm very confused by all this lack of planning and negotiation by the British. Must be something under the surface. But maybe not and they really are just totally incompetent hubristic fools. Time will tell.

That's the nub of it, maybe add divided in between totally and incompetent!

Capt'n Midnight

A reminder that Brexit hasn't happened yet.

HP Ink's UK profits tumble nearly 85% – of course Brexit to blame

HP UK was estimated to have put its price up by 30 per cent since the Brexit vote, as of September last year.

dresden8

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Come February 2019, the UK can either ask for Article 50 to be extended or sign whatever Canada type exit deal the EU puts on the table. Which of those will be easier for Parliament to swallow?

What they can't do is what people seem to think will happen by default - crash out with no deal. No planes in the air. No UK drivers allowed to drive on the Continent. There will be no food on shelves within a week, no drugs in hospitals within a fortnight. No fuel on forecourts.

Food riots. Army on the streets keeping rioters away from Westminster.

We are talking scenes from a failed 3rd world state, in London. It is out of the question.

Maybe it is more in the British Government's responsibilities to stop that happening, not Dublin, Berlin or anywhere else.

Sky News will be happy, will make excellent television.

McGiver

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

McGiver wrote: »

I don't want to sound like an alarmist or conspiracy theorist, but don't forget the UK possess nuclear weapons. I hope they won't use that as a threat, but with these Trumpist lunatics running the show - you never know. The EU will be blamed for sure.

It's really simple, the US won't let them. #takebackcontrol

And the US can turn off GPS, just like the EU can turn off Galileo , the Russian have Glonass and the Chinese have BeiDou.

It's one of the reasons the UK is willing to spend £5 Bn on their own gps satellite system.

And besides the French have full control of their nukes.

The UK doesn't have the upper hand in anything.

No, they don't that's obvious. What I'm saying is that I wouldn't be surprised if they tried blackmailing the EU with the security card (it's started already) because they have no other cards left.

"If you don't give us the cake we'll shoot ourselves in the foot with a Trident"

An Claidheamh

Interesting spin from the BBC website in a series rather patronisingly and ironically titled 'reality check' about Irish - British trade, in particular Irish freight through Britain.


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44657460

Smacks of sure Ireland have more to lose than Britain - they need us more than we need them.

'So while some contingency plans are already being made, it's not nearly enough to replace the trade that currently goes to or through Britain.

And that is a reminder that Ireland needs a good Brexit deal almost as much as the UK does.'


Funny the 'reality check' series don't actually have any articles on the actual feasibility of Brexit or the outlandish claims of its proposers.

It's as if they need a ..... reality check.

An Ciarraioch

Also from the BBC today, the number of UK nationals taking out dual citizenship has soared from 1,800 in 2015 to almost 13,000 last year. The Irish figure, of course, doesn't include the rush for passports, but earlier this year, over 1,000 Britons participated in a citizenship ceremony in Killarney.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44629193

Leroy42

It really is quite strange, a lot of the arguments made in favour of Brexit seem to rely on how much it is going to effect others rather than the benefits to the UK.

So the article linked about on the BBC, is pointing out the negative effect it will have on Ireland and its trade. Without taking any responsibility for this. It takes the approach that it is up to Ireland to now get on the side to the UK to limit the damage.

It is the same regards the EU itself. Its all about the German car makers, the about of trade the EU will lose etc.

Even May took that approach to the recent EU summit. Rather than arriving with a white paper or a plan, she decided to tell the EU that they were threatening security by not allowing things to stay the same. Seemingly without any understanding that it us them that are changing things!

KingNerolives

Does anyone know if the white paper will outline how farmers will be paid post brexit?

LeinsterDub

KingNerolives wrote: »

Does anyone know if the white paper will outline how farmers will be paid post brexit?

We'll be lucky if it's more than 1 line long. "can we haz trade plz"

judeboy101

KingNerolives wrote: »

Does anyone know if the white paper will outline how farmers will be paid post brexit?

Paid in bushels of corn, at this rate.

Trasna1

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Interesting spin from the BBC website in a series rather patronisingly and ironically titled 'reality check' about Irish - British trade, in particular Irish freight through Britain.


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44657460

Smacks of sure Ireland have more to lose than Britain - they need us more than we need them.

'So while some contingency plans are already being made, it's not nearly enough to replace the trade that currently goes to or through Britain.

And that is a reminder that Ireland needs a good Brexit deal almost as much as the UK does.'


Funny the 'reality check' series don't actually have any articles on the actual feasibility of Brexit or the outlandish claims of its proposers.

It's as if they need a ..... reality check.

The neutrality of the BBC had always been questionable. Before the referendum they were quite clearly pro remain but afterwards they seem to have embraced Brexit. In fact they have taken to highlighting the issues facing the EU much more than the major issues facing themselves with at least two newsnight programmes focusing on EU migrants last week.

BBC news, as much as our own news service, just pushes the government line.

ancapailldorcha

Trasna1 wrote: »

The neutrality of the BBC had always been questionable. Before the referendum they were quite clearly pro remain but afterwards they seem to have embraced Brexit. In fact they have taken to highlighting the issues facing the EU much more than the major issues facing themselves with at least two newsnight programmes focusing on EU migrants last week.

BBC news, as much as our own news service, just pushes the government line.

The BBC was obsessed with giving both sides equal amounts of airtime so you ended up with the likes of George Osborne presenting a study saying that working families would be thousands worse off post-Brexit and then Boris Johnson would get the same amount time to chant "Loony, London elites".

I think it's tried its best to be neutral and the top brass know that the government will slash its funding if it doesn't at least try to present Brexit as anything other than a mistake.

EdgeCase

It's also worth remembering that any attempt by the UK to deliberately block Irish goods transiting the UK could result in EU sanctions, similar to what would happen if the Canadians blocked US goods heading to and from Alaska (also part of the US).

The other aspect is that if port processing time becomes too long in Britian, those ports will be totally unattractive to Irish logistics operators anyway and the freight to continental Europe will just use direct ferries, avoiding the UK entirely.

Goods into the UK from Ireland are largely fresh food and several billion of UK food and consumer goods end up here. If you delay those, UK food prices increase.

Any disruption to that will also cost the UK huge money and loss of manufacturing jobs as Ireland is actually a major export market for British goods too.

There's no massive difficulty in replacing British made (or imported and distributed) goods with continental or locally made equivalents. I'm sure we could survive perfectly well with French yogurts and German dishwasher tablets somehow.

There's a huge volume of UK consumer goods consumed here because many companies treat us as an extension of the UK market.

I would also assume that due to changes in the regulatory framework and customs issues; many UK companies would lose their rights to be "UK and Ireland" distributors as it would suddenly he utterly impractical.

LuckyLloyd

I think they now believe that the EU will simply crack. Just delay it long enough and the EU will offer a bespoke deal to avoid the calamity.

(Of course they say this while also recognising that Britain has made zero tangible preparations for a No Deal scenario)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2018/06/29/time-running-britain-eu/

The Cabinet meeting on Friday needs to thrash out a list of demands that meet the expectations of Leave voters during the referendum (controlled immigration, full return of sovereignty, out of the Single Market etc) and which gives the Prime Minister a strong hand to play in Brussels. Once the position is agreed, the UK Government should stick to it. For too long, the EU has been allowed to set terms and Britain has, with the very best will in the world, made the generous moves on matters such as citizenship and defence. Our trump card is the strength of Britain’s economy, as demonstrated by a £20 billion deal to build ships for the Australians. Our future lies far beyond the protectionist anachronism of the EU. The EU knows it and is terrified.

I don't personally know how terrified the EU is given they spent a mere hour discussing the issue before issuing a terse and pointed statement that had the apparent assent of all 27 parties.

This game is getting very dangerous.

Imreoir2

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I don't personally know how terrified the EU is given they spent a mere hour discussing the issue before issuing a terse and pointed statement that had the apparent assent of all 27 parties.

I really don't think the 27 are scared at all. I have heard an EU official describe post no-deal brexit problems as being a "pebble in our shoe" compared to the damage it will cause in the UK.

There are rumours of a package of measures being prepared in case of a no-deal brexit, some of which will last for days or weeks post Brexit, to mitigate the worst effects to the EU. It was stressed that these measures are designed to suit the EU's needs only and are not intended to limit damage to the UK.

McGiver

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I think they now believe that the EU will simply crack. Just delay it long enough and the EU will offer a bespoke deal to avoid the calamity.

(Of course they say this while also recognising that Britain has made zero tangible preparations for a No Deal scenario)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2018/06/29/time-running-britain-eu/

The Cabinet meeting on Friday needs to thrash out a list of demands that meet the expectations of Leave voters during the referendum (controlled immigration, full return of sovereignty, out of the Single Market etc) and which gives the Prime Minister a strong hand to play in Brussels. Once the position is agreed, the UK Government should stick to it. For too long, the EU has been allowed to set terms and Britain has, with the very best will in the world, made the generous moves on matters such as citizenship and defence. Our trump card is the strength of Britain’s economy, as demonstrated by a £20 billion deal to build ships for the Australians. Our future lies far beyond the protectionist anachronism of the EU. The EU knows it and is terrified.

This is bizarre. They have not presented anything concrete or presented vague ideas which are directly in conflict with fundamental EU principles, wasting time, have not agreed on any compromise, and that is supposed to be a best will and generous moves ? In what dimension

If the UK are actually hoping that the EU will bend and give some deal to avoid chaos, then Italy and Austria couldn't have come at a worse time. There is simply no way the EU could ever do something to avoid short-term chaos that would result in long-term chaos on the continent. People still bang on about the Lisbon treaty. Can you imagine how long people would be demanding whatever the UK got.

It will be awful for Ireland but that's just what it is unfortunately. The breakup of the EU would be monumentally worse.

Imreoir2

Deleted User wrote: »

It will be awful for Ireland but that's just what it is unfortunately. The breakup of the EU would be monumentally worse.

It will be difficult, but not insurmountable, and we will have the EU behind us.

It will also offer a historic opportunity to end partition in a few years and allow us to finally take a fully independant course from the UK.

An Ciarraioch

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I think they now believe that the EU will simply crack. Just delay it long enough and the EU will offer a bespoke deal to avoid the calamity.

(Of course they say this while also recognising that Britain has made zero tangible preparations for a No Deal scenario)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2018/06/29/time-running-britain-eu/

I don't personally know how terrified the EU is given they spent a mere hour discussing the issue before issuing a terse and pointed statement that had the apparent assent of all 27 parties.

This game is getting very dangerous.

They seem to believe that if they do nothing until October, ourselves and Belgium will promptly cave, with Tom Newton Dunn encouraging the hardliners:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6660751/michael-gove-rips-up-brexit-plan/

Rhineshark

What bloody strange times we live in.

The UK approach, a bizarre combination of threats and fairy tales, is just frustrating. No wonder EU countries are fed up with the whole palaver. Not much fun trying to work out serious and complex problems with what has frankly been a clown brigade.

But throughout, the UK has not really negotiated with the EU at all. Only with each other while advertising to the public. It's no wonder they don't mind talking nonsense that the EU negotiators know to be rubbish - it has always been for the domestic audience who aren't precisely up on the nuance (and never will be while listening to that lot).

I don't really see how this can't be a crash-out next year. It *feels* unthinkable but it seems to be more and more unavoidable. And frustratingly, it is likely better than a fudge. Too much damage has been done already and austerity will continue. The headbangers and their followers will blame the damage already done on still being in a CU or the backstop or not getting a bunch of flowers with a trade deal. I do think a fudge will have us all back here within a decade.

trellheim

UK was asked for meetings to help sort this out next week privately, and they declined. Barnier then asked Davis publicly, and was rebuffed. ( can find on twitter etc ) . fk sake.

someone must be praying Olly robbins doesnt go sick, Jeremy Heywood ( cabinet sec ) has had to go for cancer treatment, poor fellow.

Robbins apparently is not turning up to DexEu select committee next week , oh dear. (what we do in the shadows ! )

FT also reporting that Davis has spent 4 hours in last 6 months negotiating with Barnier. ( see https://www.ft.com/content/9e3aacf0-7b9c-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d)

Also there is a lot of comedy floating about regarding who is actually going to write the white paper !

Are there any good Youtube channels discussing the innards of all this? I never really considered watching instead of always reading.

Sam Russell

I think the white paper will be entirely white. There will be no black ink on it at all.

Gove was reported to have torn up the proposed paper in fury because it was not to his persuasion.

The theory by the Brexiteers is that the EU will cave at the last minute because .... well, they always do - but they wont in this matter - because it matters.

It appears they think that Ireland will lead the collapse of the EU position, but in fact Leo will lead the stiff opposition to any concessions that do not make certain no border on the island of Ireland. It would be a severe mistake for Leo to do anything at this stage that weakened his 'bullet proof' backstop.

For the EU, the four freedoms are a fundamental article of faith and will not be surrendered.

[There may be slight concessions - but they will be slight and only if there are huge concessions by the UK].

Tropheus

An example of the sort of crap that's printed in the British tabloids. They have to keep the EU is crumbling narrative going. Now they're suggesting that Ireland is on the verge of a GE caused by Brexit.

Ireland set for snap BREXIT ELECTION? Cocky Varadkar warned ‘you DO NOT have divine rule’

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/981703/ireland-news-irish-election-leo-varadkar-fine-gael-fianna-fail-brexit

trellheim

The theory by the Brexiteers is that the EU will cave at the last minute because .... well, they always do - but they wont in this matter - because it matters.

They forget ( or remember, because this is what got us here ) . Remember Cameron went to Europe in 2015 to renegotiate UK-EU ( step out of immigration basically and budgets ) ? Either they forgot this or are not for turning - for them it is all one story.


PS ref Tropheus' comments, express is not wrong here but its not brexit its domestic politics , if you watch FF/FG senior political twitter feeds you can see the rumbling.