Brexit discussion thread IV

murphaph

J Mysterio wrote: »

We will have a more stable society and economy, while theirs will go down the toilet. There could be a big influx of people and they are free to come.

Mostly it would be skilled Brits that we'd welcome. It is a genuine thing to consider though.

EdgeCase

Sam Russell wrote: »

Actually, the TVs are mostly made in Eastern Europe or in Turkey. {At least the last two I have bought are made in Poland, and Hungary}. Vestel are a Turkish company and make most of the low cost brands like Walker.

My most recent Samsung was made in Slovakia.

EdgeCase

One thing I'm a bit concerned about is Irish supply chains that are plugged into the UK due to historical proximity. An awful lot of companies see UK & Ireland as a single market and I would be very concerned that we would just end up paying some ridiculous price hikes on good and services, rather than the supply chains rerouting.

There are also some minor technical barriers to trade here on things like electrical appliances due to the very minor issue of a different plug, which would lump us (and Malta and Cyprus) into an offshoot of the UK market for white goods, electronics and so on, even though it's just a very minor technicality. It might be a logical move to phase in the latest and saftest version of thr more globally normal CEE 7 plug & socket system that is standard across almost all of Europe and also places like South Korea etc. It's being phased in in Italy, Denmark and Spain and Greece transitioned to it too without any issues. I don't really see why we couldn't too. Any technicalities with ring circuits (which aren't as commonly used here anyway as the UK) can be overcome with locally fused sockets for retrofits.

Also 70+% of out fast moving consumer goods - mostly supermarket items are sourced in or via UK supply chains. I've yet to see significant movement by Irish retailers to mitigate that exposure. For example, you'd think maybe the likes of Dunnes or SuperValu would have a contingency like a deal with one or more French or Benelux outfits to replace all of those goods very quickly if necessary.

Tesco and Aldi/Lidl have huge continental presence, so I don't think you'll see much issue there.

There'll be some scope for Irish companies to fill domestic gaps too. For example, UK dairy products, processed foods and so on will become a lot easier to compete against.

There's a few billion of market share at stake there for both Irish and continental suppliers to fill.

It makes more sense for Ireland to source things in our own currency anyway - so buying from the eurozone makes a lot more sense for price stability and so on.

Leroy42

I do think our government (ROI) need to start being open about the real possibility of a hard brexit and what plans they are putting in place to reduce the risks and/or effects.

What are government departments doing? What about the HSE, does it have exposure? What about our fuel and energy sources?

Maybe I haven't been paying attention, ut I certainly haven't seen much in the way of preparations. I assumed that the Govt were working on the basis of a deal and as such, whilst planning is happening, it is being kept behind the scenes.

EdgeCase

There have been some preparations and there have been industry briefings for some sectors like food and so on. Also the likes of Bord Bia have been working extremely hard to brexit proof things. I've seen a lot of evidence of this.

I'm just concerned that if things like grocery supply chains are left to sort out their own contingencies, we could end up with serious problems in the event of a big bang brexit where things suddenly become very expensive or run short.

You can't just assume that the market will take care of it. It could end up a total mess for several months.

There should be state supported and EU supported contingencies in place by January if there's still a likelihood of a crash out brexit.

At the very least at this stage, the state needs to be engaging with all parties in all the essential suppliers and retailers to discuss what can be done.

We should have some kind of Brexit mitigation forum in place at this stage. I'm just concerned there's a lot of just in time systems that aren't ready and are assuming somehow it will be business as usual.

You can be damn sure the UK has no plans and any they do have we don't feature in.

Professor Moriarty

Could get very nasty in the Commons today at about 6.00. Up to 23 Tories could vote for Stephen Hammond's (Tory) amendment forcing a Custom's Union if no deal has been reached by January next year. Labour (apart from a few rebels) and those Lib Dems that bother turning up will vote for it. Serious squeaky bum time for May and what's left of her government.

An Ciarraioch

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Could get very nasty in the Commons today at about 6.00. Up to 23 Tories could vote for Stephen Hammond's (Tory) amendment forcing a Custom's Union if no deal has been reached by January next year. Labour (apart from a few rebels) and those Lib Dems that bother turning up will vote for it. Serious squeaky bum time for May and what's left of her government.

If it's actually tabled, that is:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1019248900996247553

On the other hand:

https://mobile.twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1019251700354437120

Professor Moriarty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

If it's actually tabled, that is:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1019248900996247553

Yes, more 180 degree swings from May in the pipeline. If she gives sufficient assurances to the Tory Remainers to cause them to withdraw the amendment then the ERG will go ballistic. We are witnessing the death rattle of May's government.

devnull

Talk now that the Lib Dems didn't get all of their people out to vote yesterday, at least Tim Farron and Vince Cable were not there and apparently another un-named one too, if they were there then the government wouldn't have won the votes they did last night.

Pretty unbelievable to take the Lib Dems seriously when they campaign against Brexit but don't turn up to vote.

Result of that at 12.30am for me.. Might watch it.

VinLieger

Leroy42 wrote: »

I do think our government (ROI) need to start being open about the real possibility of a hard brexit and what plans they are putting in place to reduce the risks and/or effects.

What are government departments doing? What about the HSE, does it have exposure? What about our fuel and energy sources?

Maybe I haven't been paying attention, ut I certainly haven't seen much in the way of preparations. I assumed that the Govt were working on the basis of a deal and as such, whilst planning is happening, it is being kept behind the scenes.

Theyve actually been doing quite a lot especially compared to the UK government who have literally done nothing. They are removing all our oil reserves that is currently being stored in the UK and sending to EU countries. They are hiring 500 for customs and veterinary checks in airports and ports. I think a bunch more is actually being announced tomorrow as well.

Leroy42

VinLieger wrote: »

Theyve actually been doing quite a lot especially compared to the UK government who have literally done nothing. They are removing all our oil reserves that is currently being stored in the UK and sending to EU countries. They are hiring 500 for customs and veterinary checks in airports and ports. I think a bunch more is actually being announced tomorrow as well.

Ok, thanks. That is good to know.

judeboy101

Big vote at 6pm, remainers claim they have the numbers.

devnull

judeboy101 wrote: »

Big vote at 6pm, remainers claim they have the numbers.

Be curious if the Government try and water down the numbers by a minor concession ahead of it like we have seen happen in the past.

cantwbr1

judeboy101 wrote: »

Big vote at 6pm, remainers claim they have the numbers.

Could this be the start of the break up of the Conservative party

Leroy42

cantwbr1 wrote: »

Could this be the start of the break up of the Conservative party

Doubt it, they will cave like they have done throughout.

Party first.

VinLieger

Question is the customs union amendment being voted on today compatible with the ERG garbage that got passed yesterday and other amendments they have put forward?

Gerry T

EdgeCase wrote: »

One thing I'm a bit concerned about is Irish supply chains that are plugged into the UK due to historical proximity. An awful lot of companies see UK & Ireland as a single market and I would be very concerned that we would just end up paying some ridiculous price hikes on good and services, rather than the supply chains rerouting.

There are also some minor technical barriers to trade here on things like electrical appliances due to the very minor issue of a different plug, which would lump us (and Malta and Cyprus) into an offshoot of the UK market for white goods, electronics and so on, even though it's just a very minor technicality. It might be a logical move to phase in the latest and saftest version of thr more globally normal CEE 7 plug & socket system that is standard across almost all of Europe and also places like South Korea etc. It's being phased in in Italy, Denmark and Spain and Greece transitioned to it too without any issues. I don't really see why we couldn't too. Any technicalities with ring circuits (which aren't as commonly used here anyway as the UK) can be overcome with locally fused sockets for retrofits.

Also 70+% of out fast moving consumer goods - mostly supermarket items are sourced in or via UK supply chains. I've yet to see significant movement by Irish retailers to mitigate that exposure. For example, you'd think maybe the likes of Dunnes or SuperValu would have a contingency like a deal with one or more French or Benelux outfits to replace all of those goods very quickly if necessary.

Tesco and Aldi/Lidl have huge continental presence, so I don't think you'll see much issue there.

There'll be some scope for Irish companies to fill domestic gaps too. For example, UK dairy products, processed foods and so on will become a lot easier to compete against.

There's a few billion of market share at stake there for both Irish and continental suppliers to fill.

It makes more sense for Ireland to source things in our own currency anyway - so buying from the eurozone makes a lot more sense for price stability and so on.

A friend of mine would have sourced a lot of material from the UK as that's where agents sat. The past 2 yrs he's transitioned to dealing direct or into a EU based agent. Considering he turns over about €200m a yr that's not insignificant. He says most of his competitors have done the same.

First Up

Everyone knows the divisions in the Tory party are irreconcilable.

Let them fight among themselves; wake me up when someone wins.

VinLieger

Gerry T wrote: »

A friend of mine would have sourced a lot of material from the UK as that's where agents sat. The past 2 yrs he's transitioned to dealing direct or into a EU based agent. Considering he turns over about €200m a yr that's not insignificant. He says most of his competitors have done the same.

Thats good to hear people being sensible.



The problem the UK have is similar to the one the US has with the tariffs, people are gonna find someone else to do business with and when the tariffs are removed in the next presidency or brexit doesnt happen what reason will they have to return to the old way of doing business if the new one works perfectly well?

Leroy42

But there are a lot of instances were ROI is treated as a province of the UK is terms of setting up HQ, and distribution.

Will these companies look to set up a separate HQ in Ireland, or through their EU office rather than continue through the UK?

And as mentioned already, in technical terms we are very close to the UK in things like plugs, driver side etc. We are not a bog enough market on our own for companies to have two centres so won't this have a knock on effect, both in terms of price and availability, in the ROI market?

The Tory front bench are speaking like they're nervous.

McGiver

https://twitter.com/ConorMcGinn/status/1019223657367916544?s=19
Well said.

McGiver

Leroy42 wrote: »

But there are a lot of instances were ROI is treated as a province of the UK is terms of setting up HQ, and distribution.

Will these companies look to set up a separate HQ in Ireland, or through their EU office rather than continue through the UK?

And as mentioned already, in technical terms we are very close to the UK in things like plugs, driver side etc. We are not a bog enough market on our own for companies to have two centres so won't this have a knock on effect, both in terms of price and availability, in the ROI market?

Time go fully metric including continental plugs then. Nothing to do with Brexit UK. Eliminate any dependence on them. Move away from the common law.

Spanish Eyes

Vote taking place now.

I reckon it'll pass.

serfboard

Leroy42 wrote: »

I do think our government (ROI) need to start being open about the real possibility of a hard brexit and what plans they are putting in place to reduce the risks and/or effects.

What are government departments doing?

One website I came accross just recently is the Enterprise Ireland "Prepare For Brexit" website.

Enterprise Ireland wrote:

Irish companies can and should be taking immediate action to mitigate the potential risks and position themselves to take advantage of the opportunities

It includes details of a grant to help companies develop an action plan, a Brexit SME Scorecard and details of Brexit Advisory Clinics that EI are holding around the country.

As someone who believes that as a country we should be trying to wean ourselves off the one-trick-pony that is FDI and encouraging indigenous industry, this, IMO, is good to see.

devnull

Deleted User wrote: »

I reckon it'll pass.

Nothing would surprise me at this stage to be honest, so I wouldn't bank on it.

The whole thing is so tragic that it's like from one unbelievable event to the next.

devnull

devnull wrote: »

Nothing would surprise me at this stage to be honest, so I wouldn't bank on it.

The whole thing is so tragic that it's like from one unbelievable event to the next.

If nothing else, I'm just amazed that parliamentlive.tv is better than Netflix these days.

devnull

Tory Whips apparently the busiest they've been for a while tonight is being reported in a few places, apparently as well there are behind the scenes efforts being made to get some kind of concession to make people have a last minute change of heart to vote against.

Personally if it was me who was voting I'd not allow myself to be bought with some hollow promise that probably doesn't mean an awful lot

Sam Russell

McGiver wrote: »

Time go fully metric including continental plugs then. Nothing to do with Brexit UK. Eliminate any dependence on them. Move away from the common law.

The problem with electric plugs is the enormous cost of change with just this one item.

Just to give an example. In my house I have about 50 plugs and about the same number of sockets. Now I would guess the cost of changing a plug at ten euros and 100 euros per socket. Now that assumes that the basic wires are Ok, but the house is wired according to the standards of the time of the last rewire. Now the new plugs would require a different layout which might more than double the cost. I would buy a few electrical items a year so it would take more than a decade for the changeover to occur by osmosis.

As for change over to driving on the left, well we should have done this forty years ago when we were planning all these new roads and motorways. It is a bit late now. It might be doable in the case of a UI but even then it is unlikely to be worth it.

Leroy42

Sam Russell wrote: »

The problem with electric plugs is the enormous cost of change with just this one item.

Just to give an example. In my house I have about 50 plugs and about the same number of sockets. Now I would guess the cost of changing a plug at ten euros and 100 euros per socket. Now that assumes that the basic wires are Ok, but the house is wired according to the standards of the time of the last rewire. Now the new plugs would require a different layout which might more than double the cost. I would buy a few electrical items a year so it would take more than a decade for the changeover to occur by osmosis.

As for change over to driving on the left, well we should have done this forty years ago when we were planning all these new roads and motorways. It is a bit late now. It might be doable in the case of a UI but even then it is unlikely to be worth it.

It all sounds very complicated. And as you state, apart from the basic change plugs, there is the roll out, wiring standards etc.

Would make you think that this one change is very difficult and we would probably need quite an extension review and planning period.

But I'm sure Brexit isn't as tough as that! I mean, nobody has even mentioned changing regulations.

serfboard

Sam Russell wrote: »

As for change over to driving on the left, well we should have done this forty years ago when we were planning all these new roads and motorways. It is a bit late now. It might be doable in the case of a UI but even then it is unlikely to be worth it.

I presume you mean driving on the right (?), but in fairness the other poster didn't mention it.

As you imply, we couldn't have done it without a United Ireland at any rate.

FrancieBrady

serfboard wrote: »

I presume you mean driving on the right (?), but in fairness the other poster didn't mention it.

As you imply, we couldn't have done it without a United Ireland at any rate.

We could phase it in. Trucks and buses first and so on.

Rhineshark

serfboard wrote: »

One website I came accross just recently is the Enterprise Ireland "Prepare For Brexit" website.It includes details of a grant to help companies develop an action plan, a Brexit SME Scorecard and details of Brexit Advisory Clinics that EI are holding around the country.

As someone who believes that as a country we should be trying to wean ourselves off the one-trick-pony that is FDI and encouraging indigenous industry, this, IMO, is good to see.

It might be this, but I signed up -somewhere- to the Irish government's Brexit bulletin. Get it by email every fortnight I think it is. I'll figure out where I got it and stick the link in here.

"Reports that Tory rebels are being threatened with a general election if they defeat the government of a new clause 18"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/jul/17/brexit-trade-bill-vote-referendum-result-branded-dodgier-than-ever-after-vote-leave-found-to-have-broken-election-spending-law-politics-live

Nody

Leroy42 wrote: »

It all sounds very complicated. And as you state, apart from the basic change plugs, there is the roll out, wiring standards etc.

Would make you think that this one change is very difficult and we would probably need quite an extension review and planning period.

Simply require over let's say a 10 to 20 year period that all products come with both types and all new houses, changes to power etc. follow the new standard while providing discounts for the work to be done via tax deductions (will keep people employed during downtime etc. to get such work done). Add in with better insulation and similar to remove heat loss etc. and society in general will benefit on top of it. But that requires leadership to look beyond the next 6 months which is rare in politicians.

Infini

[Deleted User] wrote: »

"Reports that Tory rebels are being threatened with a general election if they defeat the government of a new clause 18"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/jul/17/brexit-trade-bill-vote-referendum-result-branded-dodgier-than-ever-after-vote-leave-found-to-have-broken-election-spending-law-politics-live

At this point they should just say go ahead if you want, if they do lose they wont be the ones who can be blamed when the idiots cause it to all go to shyte.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

"Reports that Tory rebels are being threatened with a general election if they defeat the government of a new clause 18"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/jul/17/brexit-trade-bill-vote-referendum-result-branded-dodgier-than-ever-after-vote-leave-found-to-have-broken-election-spending-law-politics-live

Heaven forbid some of the MPs might risk their seat for the sake of their nation.

devnull

Seeing a few places now where accusations of bullying have been made against the Tory whips.

This is getting very very ugly, I'd love to say I'm surprised, but really I am not.

It says it's all about what a mess Westminster is now that this carry-on is being used by the government.

The lot of them should be ashamed of themselves.

At least the medicine one passed.

Kermit.de.frog

Tory rebels being threatened with General Election if they defeat the Govt.

devnull

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Tory rebels being threatened with General Election if they defeat the Govt.

There's no way in hell TM is going to call a general election, it's going to be political suicide for her with latest poll numbers and it isn't going to leave her any better off than she is now. This is a pure stunt to try and talk some of them down from voting against the government.

If the remainers have any shred of dignity they should face this down and stand up for themselves. For too long though they've caved in under government pressure whereas the Brexiteers haven't backed down so much and got more of what they want.

The question on the vote may be as well be for these guys:
Party or Country.

Leroy42

devnull wrote: »

Seeing a few places now where accusations of bullying have been made against the Tory whips.

This is getting very very ugly, I'd love to say I'm surprised, but really I am not.

It says it's all about what a mess Westminster is now that this carry-on is being used by the government.

The lot of them should be ashamed of themselves.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Tory rebels being threatened with General Election if they defeat the Govt.

Really no different than any crunch vote in any parliament though is it?

sdanseo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Tory rebels being threatened with General Election if they defeat the Govt.

With any luck the sensible ones will suck it up and realise that not all of their constituents are as stupid as their representatives.

I don't think a second referendum would reaffirm the result of the first.

But then, never doubt the staunchness of a Brit who feels their sovereignty is threatened. Spun the wrong way and if people who wanted to remain don't turn out, it could veer in the other direction.

Any General Election would be an analogue of this.

lawred2

Infini wrote: »

At this point they should just say go ahead if you want, if they do lose they wont be the ones who can be blamed when the idiots cause it to all go to shyte.

They are more concerned about their seats I'd expect

Well that's that dead then.

Leonard Hofstadter

The Government has just averted defeat on the customs bill with a majority of six (307 vs 301).

John Major was interviewed by ITV's Robert Peston, oh how the calibre of UK politician has declined since he was in power.

Makes so many points skewering the Brexit argument.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzJBoSrIW04

judeboy101

Leroy42 wrote: »

Doubt it, they will cave like they have done throughout.

Party first.

You called it.

lawred2

captainspeed wrote: »

The Government has just averted defeat on the customs bill with a majority of six (307 vs 301).

That Parliament is way too closely split on Brexit. Every vote is now a case of the government winning by a handful of votes.

It's crazy to think that something with such far reaching ramifications for everyone in the UK is on such a knife edge.

Can the government really claim a mandate to do this?

Surely for any government to have moral authority on this at this stage, a handful of votes is nowhere near enough..