Brexit discussion thread IV

trellheim

Sam Coates just tweeted to Laura K saying Brandon Lewis voted by mistake.. and has just pulled the tweet ...

Taytoland

trellheim wrote: »

Sam Coates just tweeted to Laura K saying Brandon Lewis voted by mistake.. and has just pulled the tweet ...

Good man:D

trellheim

I have a screen grab

brickster69

Deleted User wrote: »

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Back to the Japan/EU trade deal announced today.

Just wondering..... is there any possibility Japan and post Brexit UK would cut a deal very quickly based on a cut and paste of today's deal with the EU? It might not take five years, but would they, could they do it do you think.

I can see the benefits to the UK of that but what would be the benefits to Japan?
What they conceded for a market of 450/500 million people three or four times the size of their own wouldn't be the same for a market half their size.

Probably because half of  those people cannot purchase a second hand bicycle never mind a new Honda.

Water John

Those 12 Rebels would make up a good part of a great Cabinet. That's where the talent of the present Tory party find themselves.

Spanish Eyes

Deleted User wrote: »

I can see the benefits to the UK of that but what would be the benefits to Japan?
What they conceded for a market of 450/500 million people three or four times the size of their own wouldn't be the same for a market half their size.

Would be easy to do though wouldn't it? Lots of Japanese car manufacturers in the UK would love it. Easy enough to just tack it on to the UK post Brexit.

I'm looking for an argument against it happening!

VinLieger

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Would be easy to do though wouldn't it? Lots of Japanese car manufacturers in the UK would love it. Easy enough to just tack it on to the UK post Brexit.

I'm looking for an argument against it happening!

It wouldn't be easy at all, Japan choosing to implement exactly the same rules for a market 10% the size of the EU would never happen, its simply not how international trade deals work

Nate--IRL--

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

They make a lot of Japanese cars in the UK....

A tariff free agreement could be great for a post Brexit UK.

Look, I don't know, but I was just pondering on it.

Why? They can simply build the cars in Japan now and sell them in the EU tariff free.

Honda/Nisan/etc. UK will be very expansive to run if a crash out Brexit occurs, in addition to the tariffs for exporting to the EU. Why keep it in the UK at all?

Looks to me like the Japanese got their deal done in the nick of time, possibly a massive boost for Domestic manufacturing for them.

Nate

Leonard Hofstadter

Apparently it was an 'honest mistake':rolleyes:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1019309013039828992

Rhineshark

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Would be easy to do though wouldn't it? Lots of Japanese car manufacturers in the UK would love it. Easy enough to just tack it on to the UK post Brexit.

I'm looking for an argument against it happening!

Well, no, it won't work. The Japanese trade deal is about far more than cars. Besides, Japanese car manufacturers are in the UK because it is a good access spot into the EU market. Those firms will not stay if there's a hard Brexit. Hell, they won't even be sticking around if the situation is still an unholy mess by the end of this year.

Although it would be kinda funny if the UK ended up slashing tariffs on a bunch of things that they need to protect in their own country and cut tariffs on a lot if things that the EU produce which is of no use to Britain because they tried to copy-paste it. Also, at some point quotas are going to come up again. Committing themselves to importing a continent's-worth of rice would also be a bit of a popcorn moment when the wild Brexiters twigged it (caveat; I don't know if the deal actually covers quotas, but it was a big issue for the copy-pasting previous EU tradw deals).

And that's even IF Japan took leave of their senses and gave the UK a trade deal with no individual negotiations. Which they won't, because...why?

Spanish Eyes

VinLieger wrote: »

It wouldn't be easy at all, Japan choosing to implement exactly the same rules for a market 10% the size of the EU would never happen, its simply not how international trade deals work

Why though? Is it precluded under some international agreement or something? I just don't know. Several communications to me today suggested this could happen, and I did not have an answer really!

Don't forget UK will not be EU anymore and will not have the same rules and regs as EU. So I was a bit stumped I will admit.

Unless there was a clause in the EU agreement to not have the same deal with any country outside EU or something. Doubt that.

Thanks for your reply, and my apologies if I didn't express the point correctly, but I think you know what I mean.

joeysoap

The 7 Shiners would have made a difference.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1019306987497181185

Mean while as Rome burns. Some play the fiddle

ArmaniJeanss

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Would be easy to do though wouldn't it? Lots of Japanese car manufacturers in the UK would love it. Easy enough to just tack it on to the UK post Brexit.

I'm looking for an argument against it happening!

Lets say Japan was thrilled to get XYZ from the deal and the EU was mainly delighted with ABC in the deal.

And Japan might be quite happy with XYZ in a deal with the UK.
But lots of the ABC may be of little use to the UK, if it includes stuff about say Greek cheese, red wines, olives. So straight away the UK need ABC changed as otherwise they are 'losers' in the deal, so let the negotiations start.

Spanish Eyes

Apologies for side tracking re Japan/EU.

Thanks for replies.

Let's repeat one more time.

There is no such thing as a soft/non-hard border without both Single Market and Customs' Union membership.

Of the two, Single Market membership, through EU or EEA/EFTA does far more of the heavy lifting with regards to removing border checks.

There is no evidence of any borders anywhere in the world that would be soft enough to be considered anything but a hard border other than between Single Market participants.

Theresa May's decision to interpret the referendum vote as she has practically guarantees a hard border. The amendments of recent days are making this clear. Either UK moves towards the EEA/EFTA option, and remain economically linked with the EU, or else they sever it. Are we leading towards that second option?

VinLieger

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Why though? Is it precluded under some international agreement or something? I just don't know. Several communications to me today suggested this could happen, and I did not have an answer really!

Don't forget UK will not be EU anymore and will not have the same rules and regs as EU. So I was a bit stumped I will admit.

Unless there was a clause in the EU agreement to not have the same deal with any country outside EU or something. Doubt that.

Thanks for your reply, and my apologies if I didn't express the point correctly, but I think you know what I mean.

Have a watch of this to understand why the relative size of both markets is important

Nody

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Why though? Is it precluded under some international agreement or something? I just don't know. Several communications to me today suggested this could happen, and I did not have an answer really!

Nothing would stop them from doing it per say but the question would be why? Japan has restrictions, tariffs and quotas to protect domestic producers and for example how much cheese would be included was a big sticking point in the negotiation with EU. Now why would they turn around and offer the same access to UK when they already have pissed off part of their domestic farmers with the EU deal by giving UK (a market not even 10% in size by comparison) the same access?

An Ciarraioch

One final piece of drama tonight, seems The Times (London) have a poll at 10. Usually YouGov, so this was their last one:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1017159049366966272

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1017330183752298496

Lemming

VinLieger wrote: »

How does the CTA benefit us really in a hard brexit scenario? They arent gonna suddenly want to holiday here instead of Spain just because its easier to travel to.

It benefits those of us living in the UK, or those looking for work (or to study) in the UK. We are automatically afforded the same rights as a native the second we step off the plane/boat (or train/bus/car regards NI). The CTA isn't all about "D'Brits".

ambro25 wrote: »

.
But FWIW, if you’re looking to still stay, and with reference to our discussion some time ago, my old UK firm is losing another attorney by August (my ex-trainee, done good on his professional quals this year and moving on up locally) and is recruiting. They’re likely to struggle finding someone as well, not only because it’s Sheffield,

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think there are a few Irish expats living in the UK posting here and am wondering what they're thinking is on the subject.

Not 100% sure what I'm looking for. Thanks for the very kind offer though. I love Sheffield. Cracking city and it's mad they can't find staff.

First bit last, to add to Ambro's comments, Sheffield is an awesome city; quite green with a lot of rivers, so reminds me a lot of Dublin, only a lot more hills. Strange for a place that conjures up images of Dickensian workhouses and factories (its anything but). Cost of living is a lot cheaper too.


.... which gives me pause for thought. I couldn't afford a house back home the way things are at the moment, so I'm left mulling my options. So to ask what I think on matters of leaving, it's in my head ever constantly as I watch what's going on. I'm not quite of the earning power to be able to just go "up sticks and **** this" without taking considerable pain in doing so, but neither am I on an average industrial wage. I would say that if you can get out pain free or relatively, just do it. If I was still renting, I'd have said ****s to it all and gone already (and beaten Ambro to it :pac: )

Apologies for the delay in replying, but this is me back at a PC since being hospitalised on Friday evening. As a casual note, not may EU citizens that I saw on the ward, but those staff members I did see or deal with were all junior or senior staff nurses (ie. above rank and file nurses).

trellheim

So .... slow down for a second and lets get away from the screaming asylum ... whats' next here ?

I see Raab and Barnier are due to meet on Thursday. I'm struggling to come up with lines that aren't movies

Pick :
1. Now we will discuss the location of the rebel base
2. I expect you to die, Mr Bond
3. What're yez up to, lads ?

ancapailldorcha

Lemming wrote: »

First bit last, to add to Ambro's comments, Sheffield is an awesome city; quite green with a lot of rivers, so reminds me a lot of Dublin, only a lot more hills. Strange for a place that conjures up images of Dickensian workhouses and factories (its anything but). Cost of living is a lot cheaper too.


.... which gives me pause for thought. I couldn't afford a house back home the way things are at the moment, so I'm left mulling my options. So to ask what I think on matters of leaving, it's in my head ever constantly as I watch what's going on. I'm not quite of the earning power to be able to just go "up sticks and **** this" without taking considerable pain in doing so, but neither am I on an average industrial wage. I would say that if you can get out pain free or relatively, just do it. If I was still renting, I'd have said ****s to it all and gone already (and beaten Ambro to it :pac: )

Apologies for the delay in replying, but this is me back at a PC since being hospitalised on Friday evening. As a casual note, not may EU citizens that I saw on the ward, but those staff members I did see or deal with were all junior or senior staff nurses (ie. above rank and file nurses).

Been a few times. Lovely, green city. And affordable which is more than can be said for Dublin. Sorry to hear that you've not been well.

Utterly dismayed by the vote result tonight. I'm hoping that some sort of CETA-type deal can be struck with enough similarities to the EEA that it can get past the Brexiteers and the ERG.

ambro25

Sorry to learn that, I hope you're on the mend mate

Leonard Hofstadter

Used to live in Sheffield, have nothing but good things to say about the place, and the locals were very friendly and easy to get on with as well.

Miss it a lot, and it's lovely to go back and visit, but especially in light of today's developments, I am so glad to be out of the UK now and back in the comfort of an EU country.

Frankly at this stage, I think if anyone can get out of the UK, they should.

Hope you get better soon Lemming.

Capt'n Midnight

Leroy42 wrote: »

And as mentioned already, in technical terms we are very close to the UK in things like plugs, driver side etc. We are not a bog enough market on our own for companies to have two centres so won't this have a knock on effect, both in terms of price and availability, in the ROI market?

EU regs mean that manufacturers MUST offer cars that drive on our side of the road. Malta's got our back too.

Thanks to the deal signed today, Japanese car imports will have the 10% import tariff removed.

If the UK screw the pooch on a trade deal, (or country of origin regulations because of the high % of imported parts) then their exports to the EU will get the 10% WTO tariff instead. Worst case Nissans, Toyotas and Hondas etc. assembled in the UK will cost nearly 20% more in the EU than ones made in a Japanese factory.





EU regs are fudged so that all devices have to work on 220V or 240V nominal 230V.

Pugs and adaptors are cheap. And there are loads of Eurpoean standards.

[RANT]
What we think of as a continental plug , the Italians consider to be a German one and probably used for things like washing machines. And the Belgians and Swiss have something that isn't French or German, mainly because it isn't French or German. Oh and all our sockets are full size ones, on the continent they like lots of little ones and a few big ones.

Technically speaking we have the safest plugs, because of dangers of the ring mains electricity system. And don't get me started on the flaws of the Edison Screw for bulbs. [/RANT]

LeinsterDub

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

One final piece of drama tonight, seems The Times (London) have a poll at 10. Usually YouGov, so this was their last one:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1017159049366966272

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1017330183752298496

More interesting polls will be on Scottish independence and Irish unification

Lemming

Cheers folks; still breathing so it's all good.

trellheim

Thanks to the deal signed today, Japanese car imports will have the 10% import tariff removed.

Cars from land of rising sun drive on our side already ... does that mean gray imports drop the price 10% ooooooooooo

Rhineshark

captainspeed wrote: »

Used to live in Sheffield, have nothing but good things to say about the place, and the locals were very friendly and easy to get on with as well.

Miss it a lot, and it's lovely to go back and visit, but especially in light of today's developments, I am so glad to be out of the UK now and back in the comfort of an EU country.

Frankly at this stage, I think if anyone can get out of the UK, they should.

Hope you get better soon Lemming.

BIB - to think it's come to this. I don't think I could have imagined this in 2014. I left the UK just before all this started and I'm glad I did. But it's such a ..farcical tragedy. I swing between despair and fury regarding what a relatively small number of [unprintables] have done to their country.

Ambro (I think it was ambro) may be right regarding his comment on grieving. I am Irish but I have enough links and roots to/in the UK to care deeply about what happens to it. Maybe the UK never was the place I thought it and I'm mourning the loss of an illusion, I don't know.


But philosophy aside, hope you get better soon too, lemming! Take care of yourself.

Thargor

Will be interesting to compare and contrast the deal that the UK manages to sign with Japan eventually (probably around the year 2035):

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1019193103385874432

Leroy42

Less of the grieving, this is a democratic decision taken by the people of the country, a decision that still seems to garner the majority support.

Whatever happens the UK will still exist (at least for a while) and the vast, vast majority of people will have a quality of life that a large portion of the planet can only dream of.

ITs not like they are going back to the stone-age or something.

Capt'n Midnight

Rhineshark wrote: »

It might be this, but I signed up -somewhere- to the Irish government's Brexit bulletin. Get it by email every fortnight I think it is. I'll figure out where I got it and stick the link in here.

here ya go https://www.dfa.ie/brexit/government-brexit-update/

Government's Brexit page

Old page in case you want to see older preparations.
https://merrionstreet.ie/en/EU-UK/

Enzokk

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

One final piece of drama tonight, seems The Times (London) have a poll at 10. Usually YouGov, so this was their last one:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1017159049366966272

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1017330183752298496

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1019329326557384704


Here seems to be the poll for this week. This is why the Tory Whips were working their socks off and why they "made the mistake" of voting when paired today. They know if there is an election that they will be in opposition.

Well done to those 5 Labour MPs, you have cost your party the chance to take over.

Dyr

trellheim wrote: »

So .... slow down for a second and lets get away from the screaming asylum ... whats' next here ?

I see Raab and Barnier are due to meet on Thursday. I'm struggling to come up with lines that aren't movies

Pick :
1. Now we will discuss the location of the rebel base
2. I expect you to die, Mr Bond
3. What're yez up to, lads ?

So you're the brains in this outfit are ye?

ambro25

Leroy42 wrote: »

Less of the grieving, this is a democratic decision taken by the people of the country, a decision that still seems to garner the majority support.

Whatever happens the UK will still exist (at least for a while) and the vast, vast majority of people will have a quality of life that a large portion of the planet can only dream of.

ITs not like they are going back to the stone-age or something.

All choices available to me duly borne in mind...I gave about 20 years to the UK. Spent more of my living years there on aggregate, than anywhere else, including my home country. And yet, I did not get a say.

All I got instead was the 'oh but we don't mean you', 'it won't concern your likes' and similar, by the bucketload since the referendum, and from people I'd have never expected. The sort of latent psychological segregation eventually brought about by 8 years of 'hostile environment', legitimised as it was by the referendum campaigns and their coverage in mass media. Which I'd never experienced in the previous 17 years.

But you know what? It's not the unfairness that hurts the most: it's the senselessness of the waste. The worst of it, is nothing about me: it's about the fact that this referendum was not a decision. It was an opinion poll. May's government, and then enough MPs, chose to make it a decision. All of this heartache for those caught in the cross-fire, all of this waste and goodwill written off, all of this hardship to come in the UK...it was not decided by the people democratically. It was decided by May and her cabinet, autocratically, before the GE2017. It was avoidable, if politically difficult.

But the epic clusterf*ck it's turned into? The hard no deal Brexit the UK looks set to run through?

Are you really telling us that's what a majority of Leave voters voted for, their 'democratic decision'?

They're not going to the stone age, sure. They're stopping at the Victorian age. Woop-de-f***ing-doo.

briany

Leroy42 wrote: »

Less of the grieving, this is a democratic decision taken by the people of the country, a decision that still seems to garner the majority support.

A slim majority is a majority, but the problem is that a slim majority is one that can be overturned by a slight shift in public opinion, and it's not as if public opinion has never been known to do that.

Whatever happens the UK will still exist (at least for a while) and the vast, vast majority of people will have a quality of life that a large portion of the planet can only dream of.

ITs not like they are going back to the stone-age or something.

If a Brexiteer politician says words to this effect, and the next day they get pelted with eggs, can we say to them, "So what? You got pelted with a few eggs. You'll live. Don't worry about it. You've got a nice house, a cushy salary...."

The problem is that if you follow that whole line of logic, people living in developed countries have the right to complain about very little.

An Ciarraioch

Enzokk wrote: »

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1019329326557384704


Here seems to be the poll for this week. This is why the Tory Whips were working their socks off and why they "made the mistake" of voting when paired today. They know if there is an election that they will be in opposition.

Well done to those 5 Labour MPs, you have cost your party the chance to take over.

Here are the predictions using new boundaries:

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=36&LAB=41&LIB=9&UKIP=7&Green=3&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=%28none%29&boundary=2017nb

And old ones:


http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=36&LAB=41&LIB=9&UKIP=7&Green=3&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=%28none%29&boundary=2017

Imreoir2

https://twitter.com/ConorMcMorrow/status/1019332974167449601

It seems the EU is trying to make the backstop more acceptable to the UK. I doubt they will be able to make it acceptable to the UK without changing it substantivly. Maybe simply threading water from the EU while they wait for May's government to sink or swim?

MayoSalmon

Just read that Sinn Feins 7 seats in Westminster could have passed today's Brexit bill to allow them to stay in the customs union in the event of no deal. The irony of it all is nuts!

flatty

I doubt very much that is true. Why, for one reason alone, would they do anything to help teresa may who has personally grabbed brexit, forged it, and is ramming it through, through her own prism of privilege and bigotry, and who is as mendacious as they come?

Infini

Imreoir2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ConorMcMorrow/status/1019332974167449601

It seems the EU is trying to make the backstop more acceptable to the UK. I doubt they will be able to make it acceptable to the UK without changing it substantivly. Maybe simply threading water from the EU while they wait for May's government to sink or swim?

Honestly I think it's not gonna make a difference at this point. The problem is May has no control and a parliment with too many idiots. The chickens are coming home to roost it seems and the Brits seem determimed to feck up majorly.

Capt'n Midnight

Word of warning. Popcorn can damage your gums. Let's be careful folks.


The Financial Times has this
Sterling starts to factor in possibility of Mad Max Brexit




Bank of England governor warns of interest rate cuts if UK crashes out of EU

He has previously said he would be prepared to cut borrowing costs to support jobs and the economy in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Lloyds Bank plans three EU subsidiaries after Brexit - sources








Just a reminder of what's waiting in the wings

Ex-UKIP councillor Stephen Searle guilty of murdering wife




The Lib Dems capturing the mood of the people :rolleyes:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44857689

The Liberal Democrats' chief whip says he "messed up" by allowing party leader Sir Vince Cable and his predecessor Tim Farron to skip Monday night's knife-edge vote on Brexit.
...

And chief whip Alistair Carmichael said he had expected the vote to be "lost by hundreds".

Boris Johnson under fire over clearance for newspaper column

Ex-ministers must refer new employment to the Advisory Committee on Business Appointments before accepting it.

Tax rise needed to fund NHS spending boost, says watchdog

The OBR estimates that the UK would have had to make a contribution of £13.3bn to the EU budget in 2022-23 if it remained a member.

It said of that potential saving, £7.5bn would be absorbed by the withdrawal settlement payment expected for that year, "leaving £5.8bn to be spent on other things".

The OBR said that, in principle, it would cover slightly less than 30% of the cost of health package in that year.

"This does not take into account other calls on these potential savings, including commitments the government has already made on farm support, structural funds, science and access to regulatory bodies," it added.

https://www.ft.com/content/3eb00c46-5cf0-11e8-9334-2218e7146b04

... calling for the government to support the establishment of a Tees Valley free port — a large designated zone where goods can enter tariff-free, be processed or manufactured and re-exported.

WinnyThePoo

My brain is broken after reading that.

WoollyRedHat

The government of Britain is now led by the ERG party led by JRM. These are dangerous times for Britain, as they go ever close to the cliff edge.

This day may well go down in history as May could not help to appease those dangerous ideologues in her party to make the likelihood of no deal much more certain. Once the realities of Brexit hits home, with manufacturing hit hard and other vital industries shrinking, leading to big job losses and a big plunge on the average incomes, food shortages commence and the communities who were so reliant on EU begin to see what a hard Brexit really means, they will be to the streets, but it will be too late by then.

It's a tragic, down the rabbit hole world that Britain has fallen into.. ` The rule is, jam to-morrow and jam yesterday – but never jam to-day." It`s all dreadfully confusing indeed.

Trasna1

Imreoir2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ConorMcMorrow/status/1019332974167449601

It seems the EU is trying to make the backstop more acceptable to the UK. I doubt they will be able to make it acceptable to the UK without changing it substantivly. Maybe simply threading water from the EU while they wait for May's government to sink or swim?

I have to say Katia Adler's reporting from Brussels has been poor. She clearly constrained by the editorial policy of BBC news and doesn't enjoy the kind of access Tony Connolly has.

Did she even mention that the EU are ramping up the no deal preparation in the last few days?

Strazdas

Imreoir2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ConorMcMorrow/status/1019332974167449601

It seems the EU is trying to make the backstop more acceptable to the UK. I doubt they will be able to make it acceptable to the UK without changing it substantivly. Maybe simply threading water from the EU while they wait for May's government to sink or swim?

The Irish border is not necessarily even the main sticking point. May has already announced the UK is leaving the Single Market, Customs Union and ECJ and yet still wants to carrying on trading with the Single Market in a comprehensive manner.

If the Irish backstop was the only issue going on, that would be one thing, but even without it the UK is poles apart from the EU.

Bit cynical

Strazdas wrote: »

The Irish border is not necessarily even the main sticking point. May has already announced the UK is leaving the Single Market, Customs Union and ECJ and yet still wants to carrying on trading with the Single Market in a comprehensive manner.

If the Irish backstop was the only issue going on, that would be one thing, but even without it the UK is poles apart from the EU.

It's shifted a bit recently, but for a long time the border issue was the main hold up. Given that we (Ireland) were opposed to deals that involved any sort of border with the North, it is ironic that we may be the ones building the hard border with the North.

J Mysterio

Fair play to Soubry here, passionately speaking out against the Brexiteers (video in article):

Tory MPs 'privately say loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs worth it for Brexit', Anna Soubry tells Parliament

'Nobody voted Leave on the basis that somebody with a gold-plated pension and inherited wealth will take their job away from them'

Strazdas

Bit cynical wrote: »

It's shifted a bit recently, but for a long time the border issue was the main hold up. Given that we (Ireland) were opposed to deals that involved any sort of border with the North, it is ironic that we may be the ones building the hard border with the North.

The border might have been seen as a huge issue six months ago but May has introduced so many red lines that it is only one thing among many now. There is a whole load of stuff in that white paper the EU could never agree to. If the border was virtually the only sticking point, it could probably be sorted out, but there are dozens of sticking points in fact.

Bit cynical

Strazdas wrote: »

The border might have been seen as a huge issue six months ago but May has introduced so many red lines that it is only one thing among many now. There is a whole load of stuff in that white paper the EU could never agree to. If the border was virtually the only sticking point, it could probably be sorted out, but there are dozens of sticking points in fact.

I think it was the belief that on the EU side that if the only acceptable position on the border was one that was completely frictionless and with no physical infrastructure, that this would force the UK into staying in the customs union.

Of course it could still be the case that the UK does cave, but that seems less and less likely. If, as seems probable now, the UK crashes out, this represents a failure not only on the UK but also on the EU side - a miscalculation.

I understand the reluctance of the EU not give full access to the single market while allowing the UK the ability to do trade deals outside. This would undermine the integrity of the single market with other countries demanding the same rights.

However it has to be remembered that the UK are within their rights to leave the EU, single market and customs union, and they have been fairly clear that that is what they intended to do from fairly early on.

But the EU position seems to be that anything short of staying in the customs union is unacceptable. It is either stay in the customs union or crash out. There is no middle road. The border issue was a good way of creating this dilemma. To me this is unreasonable except as a means of taking it out on a country for having the audacity to leave the EU's institutions. I would suggest that the only reason the EU are taking this approach is because the fallout will be concentrated in a small peripheral country of little value to the EU.