Brexit discussion thread IV

EdgeCase

I have to admit though it would be quite entertaining to see the Tories sparring in parliament with very politically tough, left wing, socialist republicans.

FrancieBrady

While the concern for the nationalists of the north is touching, I think they themselves will be wryly smiling. For decades the southern governments of FF and FG cared little about what they needed or required but now that the south is going to be affected they are suddenly so concerned about them.

They will continue in their quest to be treated as equal citizens and elect SF to represent them I reckon.

Infini

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Given we actually have historical evdence of this.

While there was violence in the past this was a result of blatent and agressive supression of rights circa 1970 and which because of catalysts like Bloody Sunday escalated into a bitter guerella war. The difference this time is that unlike before the headbangers are in truth a far lesser faction than they think they are.

On top of that a serious self inflicted depression caused by a total failure of London politics and going against the wishes of the majority of NI could ultimately lead to a UI because the DUP pursued a seriously dehabiltiating policy of Brexit. The border community against Brexit could easily morph in an all out reunification movement and be very sucessful if it focus on both the economic arguments and the serious failings of the political establishment that caused this unneeded situation.

BonnieSituation

FrancieBrady wrote: »

While the concern for the nationalists of the north is touching, I think they themselves will be wryly smiling. For decades the southern governments of FF and FG cared little about what they needed or required but now that the south is going to be affected they are suddenly so concerned about them.

They will continue in their quest to be treated as equal citizens and elect SF to represent them I reckon.

So FG "shouldn't" care now because those in the past didn't?

EdgeCase

I was just looking at some of the issues around a hard Brexit for data centre and networking type operations. It is going to be a near impossibility for all sorts of networks to segregate UK data and aspects of their networks that have been built on the basis that we are all in the same market. That impacts all sorts of services from retailers, telcos, financial services, banks, entertainment operators, government services, internet service providers you name it...

A lot of things simply do not operate as neat little national networks and databases anymore. There are plenty of Irish services that cross into the UK or are hosted in the UK and vice versa and plenty of crossover into the continent too from the UK.

The practicalities of this stuff are only starting to dawn on businesses as they start to realise just how seriously like a hard Brexit scenario is.

Without a substantial transition period, this is simply insanity.
An agreed departure is one thing, where there's a continuity of structures, but for the life of me, I cannot figure out how this notion that you can just cut the wires is going to work.

The politicians are still thinking about cows and trucks and aeroplanes, there's a HELL of a lot more stuff going to be suddenly a huge problem.

None of this was really ever presented properly to the UK public or political classes and they remain in total denial about it. It's a bit like deciding that you no longer like the idea of foundations on buildings and you're going to dig them all out.

Infini

flutered wrote: »

i believe the eu has penciled in a special meeting of ministers for november, in case of a disaster of one in september, so after that its very hardball

I've no doubt that they'll play serious hardball if the brits dont cop on by November. If anything they should deliberately hammer the hell out them at that point purely to get them to see common sense or not. A serious run on the pound and a panic of sales while they're still in the EU is the ONLY thing at this point that might get them to cop on and realise the magnitude of the kind of Ignorant stupidity theyre wishing for. Government could fall beforehand though and if a Corbyn government gets in it could at least be somewhat of an improvement but the conservatives have to go, all this is their failure because they couldnt get their house in order.

FrancieBrady

BonnieSituation wrote: »

So FG "shouldn't" care now because those in the past didn't?

I was talking about how their sudden 'care' will be perceived.

FG ignored the plight of nationalists more or less since partition.
If they deliver, well and good, but nationalists will know it was because the south was going to be affected.

mayo.mick

EdgeCase wrote: »

I was just looking at some of the issues around a hard Brexit for data centre and networking type operations. It is going to be a near impossibility for all sorts of networks to segregate UK data and aspects of their networks that have been built on the basis that we are all in the same market. That impacts all sorts of services from retailers, telcos, financial services, banks, entertainment operators, government services, internet service providers you name it...

A lot of things simply do not operate as neat little national networks and databases anymore. There are plenty of Irish services that cross into the UK or are hosted in the UK and vice versa and plenty of crossover into the continent too from the UK.

The practicalities of this stuff are only starting to dawn on businesses as they start to realise just how seriously like a hard Brexit scenario is.

Without a substantial transition period, this is simply insanity.
An agreed departure is one thing, where there's a continuity of structures, but for the life of me, I cannot figure out how this notion that you can just cut the wires is going to work.

The politicians are still thinking about cows and trucks and aeroplanes, there's a HELL of a lot more stuff going to be suddenly a huge problem.

None of this was really ever presented properly to the UK public or political classes and they remain in total denial about it. It's a bit like deciding that you no longer like the idea of foundations on buildings and you're going to dig them all out.

After reading this, I'm just after realising that I've 7 websites which are hosted in London. Wonder what impact its going to have on this?

An Ciarraioch

The argument can be made for FF, FG and Labour to all contest Stormont elections, given the current weakness of the SDLP, the current Assembly stalemate, and a desire to moderate the political debate up North. Of course, Westminster would be more difficult to manage, given a multiplicity of nationalist contenders would hand seats to unionism, but one Southern entrant wouldn't have that impact in most of the Border constituencies.

badtoro

Required tired preface that I'm not a Sinn Fein supporter. I believe the shinners are right not to take their Westminster seats, that's the platform they run on and part of the reasoning people vote for them. I listened Pat Kenny talk down at one of their TD's during the week on this issue and I don't agree with the simple maths argument - He'd only accuse them of gross hypocrisy after the fact anyway.

Who knows how things would be today if SF sat in London, and pardon the pun but there'd likely be murder over who sides with them in votes in parliament. I'd also agree with the SF guy that Irish problems won't be solved in Britain - never has this been more true than today with the loons that currently hold sway.

My online experience of Brextremists online in my sector, agriculture, is they have deluded themselves into a belief that all red tape will vanish next year, that the pound falling in value is fantastic cos exports you know. Never mind all the food they import, that's just an inconvenient truth. Their views on Ireland and the Irish are best left unaired, but would be inline with the selection of comments posted above from a so called newspaper.

I have for a while now lost sympathy for them, any attempt to air a different view is met with insults. The devil on my shoulder hopes the EU/rest of world withholds lube next year.

BonnieSituation

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I was talking about how their sudden 'care' will be perceived.

FG ignored the plight of nationalists more or less since partition.
If they deliver, well and good, but nationalists will know it was because the south was going to be affected.

Or maybe their sudden care is as a result of a new wing of non-partitionist young nationalists in charge of the party?

Also don't give me the guff that FF cared either. For all their "natural party of govt" schtick, they did precious little with it.

An Ciarraioch

Well, this will do wonders for cross-Border relations!

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

That's the red line they chose to drop so...

No "No Hard Border" anymore

Capt'n Midnight

axer wrote: »

Does anyone know if there has been any more talk on WTO membership for the UK post brexit? From what was previously talked about they are not members except through the EU. Is it guaranteed instant membership?

Already happening , and it was a handy little foreign exchange earner.
https://www.bbc.com/news/education-44872808

Researchers at UCL's Centre for Global Higher Education say the UK is being pushed into third place behind the United States and Australia.
...
An analysis this year found that overseas students added £20bn to the UK's economy

Leroy42

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Well, this will do wonders for cross-Border relations!

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

So they are going to renege on the GFA and the December Agreement in one fell swoop (that is on the basis that May won't change her mind in the next few days as usual)

Capt'n Midnight

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If the UK had any sense, they'd have asked for an extension already -

They will only get an extension if there's a deal or very close to one. And there's no sign of the UK understanding the red lines nevermind doing anything about them.

No deal , no extension.

devnull

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Well, this will do wonders for cross-Border relations!

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

Does it really surprise you?

At the end of the day it further underlines the fact that you cannot trust a single thing that the British government says because anything that May agrees to has to be scrutinised by her bosses Jacob and Arlene and if they doesn't agree with it she will change her position to satisfy them.

It's impossible for the European Union to negotiate with the UK when such a farce is going on since they have no idea what they want whatsoever, keep changing their mind and how the hell can you have any proper negotiations when that kind of thing is going on. It's an absolute joke and nobody shows any sign of copping on anytime soon.

Not only do they keep changing their mind, the Tories and in particular the hard right part of them clearly believe that the supposed end always justifies the meanings. Breaking electoral law, underhand tactics at votes, breach of trust, breaking promises, dishonesty and outright deliberate misleading of the public

These are the same people who have spent the last number of months criticising the European Union claiming they are undemocratic, whilst being part of what is perhaps the most morally bankrupt and dishonest government in the history of the UK. Honestly I wouldn't put anything past them now. Nothing surprises me.

devnull

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

They will only get an extension if there's a deal or very close to one. And there's no sign of the UK understanding the red lines nevermind doing anything about them.

No deal , no extension.

And the whole thing will be dressed up as the European Union punishing them.

FrancieBrady

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Or maybe their sudden care is as a result of a new wing of non-partitionist young nationalists in charge of the party?

Also don't give me the guff that FF cared either. For all their "natural party of govt" schtick, they did precious little with it.

Successive governments didn't care. I said that originally.
The only all island solution to this is an all island political entity - a UI.

But that call will stick in FG and FF throats for a while yet.

Well done Leo, so far, but nobody up here on the border and in northern Ireland is fooled as to motivation.

Don't want to drag the thread off topic.

devnull

https://twitter.com/PeterKGeoghegan/status/1020040038740971521

Would they be the same proposals that she agreed that were workable?

zapitastas

[Deleted User] wrote: »

That's the red line they chose to drop so...

No "No Hard Border" anymore

With over 200 border crossings it is going to be interesting to see how it is proposed to establish any sort of effective controls. I wonder would it mean road closures again and all in an area extremely hostile to any border infrastructure. A while back on a bridge separating cavan and fermanagh they had a traffic counter set up. Beside it was a rather large sign explaining what it was and asking that it please be left in place as it was part of a survey to determine if road upgrades were necessary.

Leroy42

Surely the talks must be suspended at this stage. They allowed Phase 1 to move to Phase 2 on the basis of the December agreement, and it appears that May is about to blow that agreement out of the water. So at the very least we must return to Phase 1.

I know that being pragmatic is the right approach, but sometimes you simply need to accept that the other side really have no intention of negotiating in any meaningful way and cut your losses.

At this stage, I wouldn't value any deal that would be agreed to anyway. Even if TM manages to deliver it, the chance of it lasting any length of time is almost zero.

Maybe its time for the EU to go for the nuclear option. Take the gloves off and let the markets and industry realise that hard brexit is a real probability. As said in other posts, it would appear that that is the only chance left to get the UK to see some sense (although I have my doubts it would work)

Leonard Hofstadter

I'm inclined to agree. I think it's time for Barnier to say there will be no more talks and we're back to Phase 1 unless they cop themselves on.

What I want to know is how do they possibly think that any other country will want to do any sort of deal with the UK given how easily they can go back on commitments they've previously made? Has that ever entered their thought process at all?

BonnieSituation

Leroy42 wrote: »

Surely the talks must be suspended at this stage. They allowed Phase 1 to move to Phase 2 on the basis of the December agreement, and it appears that May is about to blow that agreement out of the water. So at the very least we must return to Phase 1.

I know that being pragmatic is the right approach, but sometimes you simply need to accept that the other side really have no intention of negotiating in any meaningful way and cut your losses.

At this stage, I wouldn't value any deal that would be agreed to anyway. Even if TM manages to deliver it, the chance of it lasting any length of time is almost zero.

Maybe its time for the EU to go for the nuclear option. Take the gloves off and let the markets and industry realise that hard brexit is a real probability. As said in other posts, it would appear that that is the only chance left to get the UK to see some sense (although I have my doubts it would work)

Egads, wait til the house is sold!

Spanish Eyes

The EU has to play it safe so as not to be castigated by the UK as being against them all the time. We all know that is what Brexit folk will do anyway. Blame everyone except yourself.

Eu might just stay schtum and let them fall over the cliff.

This is just ridiculous now, particularly having seen the shenanigans WRT pairings.

devnull

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

The EU has to play it safe so as not to be castigated by the UK as being against them all the time. We all know that is what Brexit folk will do anyway. Blame everyone except yourself.

Eu might just stay schtum and let them fall over the cliff.

This is just ridiculous now, particularly having seen the shenanigans WRT pairings.

Indeed - I'm sure that if the EU cut the UK off, the likes of the Daily Mail and the Daily Express will have a field day saying that this is because the EU wants to punish the UK and bully them into a bad deal etc.

McGiver

Some numbers from the IMF paper on Brexit impact on the EU.

The EU’s lost economic output in the case of no deal would cost the bloc around $250 billion, according to Reuters calculations based on the IMF’s estimate of the size of the EU economy excluding Britain this year.

Lost employment could total 0.7 percent of the EU workforce, or more than a million jobs.
...
Looking at the trade impact alone, Ireland could lose almost 4 percent of its economy in a ‘no deal’ Brexit, but some big countries like France, Italy and Spain would be far less hurt.

Anybody understands CCP? I know City clears Euro transactions for the Eurozone but I don't know what implications it has.

The Washington-based body also urged the EU to continue to allow London-based ‘central counterparties’ (CCPs) that clear global financial trades to handle euro transactions - something the European Central Bank has resisted previously.

“The potential forced relocation of a globally systemically important CCP to the EU should be viewed with great hesitation,” the IMF said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-imf/no-deal-brexit-would-cost-european-union-1-5-percent-of-gdp-imf-idUSKBN1K92FN

McGiver

devnull wrote: »

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

The EU has to play it safe so as not to be castigated by the UK as being against them all the time. We all know that is what Brexit folk will do anyway. Blame everyone except yourself.

Eu might just stay schtum and let them fall over the cliff.

This is just ridiculous now, particularly having seen the shenanigans WRT pairings.

Indeed - I'm sure that if the EU cut the UK off, the likes of the Daily Mail and the Daily Express will have a field day saying that this is because the EU wants to punish the UK and bully them into a bad deal etc.

It will be presented like EU's fault anyway. Any softness is taken by them as weakness. They are essentially bullies. Think EU should play fair but very hard.

Leonard Hofstadter

devnull wrote: »

Indeed - I'm sure that if the EU cut the UK off, the likes of the Daily Mail and the Daily Express will have a field day saying that this is because the EU wants to punish the UK and bully them into a bad deal etc.

But sure they're going to do that anyway no matter what happens, so why put it off?

I said that over a year ago that the British press will blame the EU for any side effects and will peddle stuff like 'the EU's attitude shows precisely why we were right to leave the EU' and other such nonsense. We know they are intellectually and completely morally bankrupt.

The only reason to stay in talks is because you think there is going to be progress made and because you think the other party is going to be honest and will do what they say they are going to do. With the British Government, it's one step forward, then about 10 steps backwards. You only have to look at the carry on with the whipping to show that there are no lengths to which they will go to in order to try and rig the thing for themselves, and then the EU is expected to be reasonable and try and compromise? How are they supposed to do that?

It's clear the British Government wants no deal, so we might as well start planning for it now and let them know we in the EU are deadly serious about being prepared for their incompetence.

It all makes you realise just how fortunate we are to be an independent country and to be in the EU.

allthedoyles

Reminder it was only 51.9% voted leave.
The others need to have their say too.
I can't see UK crashing out simply to suit a majority of 1.9%.

Nody

Leroy42 wrote: »

Surely the talks must be suspended at this stage. They allowed Phase 1 to move to Phase 2 on the basis of the December agreement, and it appears that May is about to blow that agreement out of the water. So at the very least we must return to Phase 1.

Why suspend the talks? All you're doing is giving UK an excuse to blame the EU for walking away. All that EU needs to do is sit down at the table and say no to their proposal and outline exactly how many red lines and unicorns they have pulled in it. No excuse for UK to complain about walking away; no excuse to later claim "Oh but it was suppose to be 2 years of negotiation and you suspended that so we should really be allowed to stay longer" etc.

I know that being pragmatic is the right approach, but sometimes you simply need to accept that the other side really have no intention of negotiating in any meaningful way and cut your losses.

You cut your losses the smart way though by not invoking a penalty clause and sitting out the time while telling your members to prepare for the worst; exactly as EU has already done.

At this stage, I wouldn't value any deal that would be agreed to anyway. Even if TM manages to deliver it, the chance of it lasting any length of time is almost zero.

Agreed and same feelings exist in Brussels as seen by the leaked comments.

Maybe its time for the EU to go for the nuclear option. Take the gloves off and let the markets and industry realise that hard brexit is a real probability. As said in other posts, it would appear that that is the only chance left to get the UK to see some sense (although I have my doubts it would work)

There is no nuclear option; there's only EU sitting out the time whistling. They have already told the countries to prepare for the worst; industry groups around Europe has told their members to prepare for the worst. If the "market" still has not gotten the message nothing will anyway and UK will still crash out as I predicted several months ago due to incompetence rather than a wish to do so. The fact Brexiteers are actively talking about the crash out (and how any pain from it is EU punishing UK for wanting to go their own way) shows that they are well aware of what's coming and preparing for it (their own way).

Dyr

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Well, this will do wonders for cross-Border relations!

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

If history teaches us anything it's that an English government will throw Paddy under the bus whenever its in Englands interest to do so

Emmet, Tone et al up in heaven going "What did we tell yiz lads? Break the connection or it'll break you"

The big question is Brussels willing to throw Paddy under the bus if it's in their interests to do so, and we got the answer to that back around 2008, so all that's left is to ask whether it's in Brussels interest to stand by us on this.

Interesting oul time

devnull

allthedoyles wrote: »

Reminder it was only 51.9% voted leave.
The others need to have their say too.
I can't see UK crashing out simply to suit a majority of 1.9%.

At the end of the day TM will do whatever Arlene and Jacob tell her. She's looking really foolish for calling an election now as that simply meant that she just had another person who had her over a barrel in addition to those in her own party.

However you have to say that the best supporting role award to Jacob Rees Mogg should go to Jeremy Corbyn, who has to go down as one of the most ineffectual opposition leaders in history, since he seems to be missing for about 95% of the time.

McGiver

Nody wrote: »

All that EU needs to do is sit down at the table and say no to their proposal and outline exactly how many red lines and unicorns they have pulled in it.

Exactly:
No
No
No
No
No
Do you suggest anything else? No?
Then good luck and God save the queen.

Dyr

Nody wrote: »

The fact Brexiteers are actively talking about the crash out (and how any pain from it is EU punishing UK for wanting to go their own way) shows that they are well aware of what's coming and preparing for it (their own way).

Have a feeling that the Brexiteers and their backers are betting against themselves and stand to make some serious dosh if the UK goes full retard. These guys don't ignore the bottom line.

Sierra Oscar

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Well, this will do wonders for cross-Border relations!

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

So the backstop is dead. This is huge news.

I guess it was always going to come down to this. UK Government essentially using the threat of a hard border to blackmail Ireland into getting the EU negotiation team to back down.

The UK Government cannot be trusted.

This is not going to end well for anyone.

devnull

Details of May's Speech here now the embargo has been passed.
https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-says-mps-have-shown-they-will-reject-eus-irish-border-backstop-plan-11442805

Most of it's already covered but essentially also saying that the votes this week made the original proposals unworkable.

devnull

Leadsom now also accusing the EU of forcing a no deal Brexit (same link)

"It needs to be quite clear to the EU, 'you've got to come to the table and start negotiating with serious focus and concentration and goodwill because otherwise, we will be leaving with no deal'."

Gotta laugh haven't you at the irony.

Spanish Eyes

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

So the backstop is dead. This is huge news.

I guess it was always going to come down to this. UK Government essentially using the threat of a hard border to blackmail Ireland into getting the EU negotiation team to back down.

The UK Government cannot be trusted.

This is not going to end well for anyone.

Whatever happened to this Jolian guy who was to take a case in Dublin re Brexit. Haven't heard anything since. All mouth and no trousers maybe.

Strazdas

allthedoyles wrote: »

Reminder it was only 51.9% voted leave.
The others need to have their say too.
I can't see UK crashing out simply to suit a majority of 1.9%.

Arguably a 'crashing out' would be in breach of the entire referendum result. Never once was the possibility discussed in the referendum campaign of the UK crashing out of the EU with no deal at all and on hostile terms with the union. There may not be a mandate for this in fact.

Infini

Bambi wrote: »

If history teaches us anything it's that an English government will throw Paddy under the bus whenever its in Englands interest to do so

Emmet, Tone et al up in heaven going "What did we tell yiz lads? Break the connection or it'll break you"

The big question is Brussels willing to throw Paddy under the bus if it's in their interests to do so, and we got the answer to that back around 2008, so all that's left is to ask whether it's in Brussels interest to stand by us on this.

Interesting oul time

To be fair though back then they didnt have the situation that is caused by not listening to people, ie. Populist governments. They're not going to do something like that again because it comes back to bite them in the long run like Italy for example and they know it now.

As for right now they wont throw Ireland under the bus they know full well it's in their interest's to so everything they can to support us against the stupidity that's the british political system.

Enzokk

devnull wrote: »

Leadsom now also accusing the EU of forcing a no deal Brexit (same link)


Gotta laugh haven't you at the irony.

Arlene Foster was saying something similar as well. Basically their position seems to be that it is up to the EU to meet them in the middle. The fact that the starting position of the UK is not workable and thus the middle is not either seems to have gone past them.

Here is a link to a NPR program on the links between Russia and Trump...and Brexit. Nothing to see here for too many though.

Reporter Shows The Links Between The Men Behind Brexit And The Trump Campaign

Nody

devnull wrote: »

Leadsom now also accusing the EU of forcing a no deal Brexit (same link)


Gotta laugh haven't you at the irony.

Honestly it reminds me exactly of the Blazing Saddles moment...

Spanish Eyes

devnull wrote: »

Leadsom now also accusing the EU of forcing a no deal Brexit (same link)


Gotta laugh haven't you at the irony.

As I said earlier, that is what they will do.

We can see it, but I reckon lots in UK are in a different mode entirely. We are two different countries after all.

The lack of distinct analysis re this is amazing. Take what we say or shut up. The EU are bullies, we can do what we like re votes and pairings in Parliament.

EU should just stay quiet and let them at it.

badtoro

Strazdas wrote: »

Arguably a 'crashing out' would be in breach of the entire referendum result. Never once was the possibility discussed in the referendum campaign of the UK crashing out of the EU with no deal at all and on hostile terms with the union. There may not be a mandate for this in fact.

Genuine question, how do you figure it'll breach the referendum result? I might be missing or forgetting something but did they not just vote to "leave the European Union" on the ballot? Wouldn't a crash out satisfy that, in the Brexit means Brexit vein?

FrancieBrady

Strazdas wrote: »

Arguably a 'crashing out' would be in breach of the entire referendum result. Never once was the possibility discussed in the referendum campaign of the UK crashing out of the EU with no deal at all and on hostile terms with the union. There may not be a mandate for this in fact.

How is anybody outside the Tories going to stop a crash out at this stage?

Imreoir2

mayo.mick wrote: »

After reading this, I'm just after realising that I've 7 websites which are hosted in London. Wonder what impact its going to have on this?

Depending on the nature of the sites, possible quite significant given that the UK will have crashed out of GDPR. If you have clients data, it might not be considered safe if it is hosted in the UK. I am not sure if there is a serious issue here for you, but you might want to look into it.

Headshot

The British Government are just so on trust worthy. How can the EU really believe anything they say

McGiver

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Well, this will do wonders for cross-Border relations!
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

The UK Government cannot be trusted.

Been always the case. But their current post-imperial delusion certainly doesn't improve the situation.

Sierra Oscar

The EU negotiation team should suspend all talks at this stage.

The negotiations only proceeded on the basis that the backstop was agreed between the UK and EU. The UK Government is now saying they never agreed to it. What a farce.

The hard Brexiteers want to kick the can down the road until it is too late to reach an agreement. They know it is their only way of achieving a hard Brexit.