Brexit discussion thread IV

trellheim

Fair play for having a go at the phrase "Garda Siochana"

Trasna1

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Fascinating the difference in the comments sections when Tusk or Juncker say something that the Mail/Express people don't like as opposed to when Leo says something.
They don't get stereotypically derogatory towards the entire population of Luxembourg, or suggest threatening their military power against Poland. I understand it's partly that Leo is the serving PM whereas the other two are exPMs with different roles now, but there does seem to be a healthy dashing of anti-Irish racism in there.

In fairness, the comments towards Juncker are pretty vitriolic, labelling him a drunk (helped by The Sun front page today) and are little more positive towards Tusk, albeit a bit more generic -since they don't really have anything to throw at him.

I take your point though that the comments generally haven't widened to slurs on their respective nations, though they sometimes refer to Luxembourg as a nothing country/tax haven.

Leroy42

In her speech today TM stated

"The seamless border is a foundation stone on which the Belfast Agreement rests, allowing for the just and equal treatment for the identity, ethos and aspirations of both communities.

"Anything that undermines that is a breach of the spirit of the Belfast Agreement - an agreement that we have committed to protect in all its parts and the EU says it will respect."

"It is now for the EU to respond, not simply to fall back on previous positions which have already been proven unworkable but to evolve their position in kind."

So, the UK had a solution, being part of the EU, decided to opt out of that, which the EU is still offering, but according to her it is up to the EU to come up with a solution, rather than stick to the agreements that she herself had already entered into.

Kermit.de.frog

Barnier press conference pushed back to 12:30. No doubt digesting Theresa May's speech.

Question is to what extent the EU will push back here.

Penn

Leroy42 wrote: »

In her speech today TM stated





So, the UK had a solution, being part of the EU, decided to opt out of that, which the EU is still offering, but according to her it is up to the EU to come up with a solution, rather than stick to the agreements that she herself had already entered into.

The EU's solutions are only unworkable to the point the UK doesn't want to agree to it.

trellheim

Barnier press conference pushed back to 12:30. No doubt digesting Theresa May's speech.

I suspect at the same time Raab had given in an advance copy , so that chats could be considered.

prawnsambo

Leroy42 wrote: »

So, the UK had a solution, being part of the EU, decided to opt out of that, which the EU is still offering, but according to her it is up to the EU to come up with a solution, rather than stick to the agreements that she herself had already entered into.

Breathtaking really. "We are committed to the open border but we're doing somethiing that will change that and it's all your fault because it just is"

lawred2

Leroy42 wrote: »

In her speech today TM stated





So, the UK had a solution, being part of the EU, decided to opt out of that, which the EU is still offering, but according to her it is up to the EU to come up with a solution, rather than stick to the agreements that she herself had already entered into.

They can be quite choosy and unpredictable when it comes to deciding which agreements they fancy adhering to today

Zubeneschamali

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Barnier press conference pushed back to 12:30. No doubt digesting Theresa May's speech.

Question is to what extent the EU will push back here.

I think this will be like the White Paper itself, the EU will stick to harmless language like "We look forward to hearing at the negotiations how this paper/speech affects the British position" blah blah, ignore it until it goes away.

Dyr

judeboy101 wrote: »

A by election can be triggered by 4000 signatures in north Antrim due to paisley suspension. He has a large majority but it fluctuates from 18k to 28k, if the other parties agreed on a compromise uup candidate who was pro eu the might squeeze him out. They could make it a "vote on brexit" in the unionist heartland.

Extreme wishful thinking, north Antrim is as safe a seat as you'll get.

trellheim

"If your activity relies on certificates, licenses or authorisations issued by UK authorities or by bodies based in the UK – or held by someone established in the UK – these may no longer be valid in the EU post-Brexit. You may need to transfer or seek new ones issued by an EU27-based body or authority. This is the case, in particular, for certificates, licenses and authorisations issued for goods (for example in the automotive sector, or the medical devices sector) and for services (for instance in the transport, broadcasting, or the financial sector). You should now take all the necessary steps to transfer certificates, licences or authorisations issued in the UK to the EU27, or obtain new ones."

http://europa.eu/rapid/attachment/IP-18-4545/en/IP-18-4545%20Brexit%20Preparedness%20Factsheet.pdf

Kermit.de.frog

Barnier press conference will be live here

https://ec.europa.eu/avservices/ebs/live.cfm?page=1

Imreoir2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Barnier press conference pushed back to 12:30. No doubt digesting Theresa May's speech.

Question is to what extent the EU will push back here.

Any idea where we can watch it?

Kermit.de.frog

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Any idea where we can watch it?

https://ec.europa.eu/avservices/ebs/live.cfm?page=1

Rjd2

swampgas wrote: »

Theresa May sems to be the personification of the Tory party, and maybe the UK as a whole. I was about to say that anyone else with the tiniest hint of self-respect or integrity would have resigned already, but the two contenders to succeed her, Boris and Rees-Mogg, are just as unprincipled and mendacious.

IMO even Jeremy Corbyn is complicit, as he won't state his own position on the EU honestly, instead ducking and diving while he hopes the Tory party self-destructs, and he is refusing to hold the government to account.

Is this the new normal, the new British post-truth politics?

Even if Brexit is averted (which I very much doubt) the reputational damage already done to the UK is staggering, and will not be undone easily.

The British state has shown itself on the world stage to be unreliable, untrustworthy, unprincipled, dishonest, disrespectful, rude, insulting, boorish, incompetent, arrogant and lazy, to an extent that is really quite amazing.

They have alienated many of their erstwhile EU allies and don't seem to care.

It seems hard to avoid the conclusion that the UK is rapidly becoming a failed state.

To be fair while I agree with most of the post, the good news is Boris won't be replacing May.

I have also said before in other threads there is absolutely ZERO chance of Mogg replacing May, ignore betting odds etc.

The fact is the party MPS are remainers in the majority and if its a brexiter replacing May it will be Javid, Gove (not as unreasonable as Mogg tbf) who will replace her. Small mercies etc.

An Ciarraioch

In the meantime, France is disgruntled, to put it mildly, with the ERG amendments:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/20/france-minister-nathalie-loiseau-brexit-concessions-theresa-may-commons

Enzokk

Delayed press conference always worries me, you never know what the delay is about.

Looking at the BBC coverage of Theresa May this morning the message is very much that they have moved their position and its now up to the EU to do the same. That doesn't make sense but that is the message.

The second message is very much still that there will be no border between Ireland and NI and there will be no border between NI and the rest of the UK. Once again that circle needs to be squared and the white paper will not do it. Add into that the ERG amendments and it is complicated even further. We will have to see what the message is from Barnier to the white paper, although I am getting nervous that the EU will go a little nuclear on the UK to get things going as at the moment nothing constructive is happening.

Kermit.de.frog

The talks should be suspended simple as that.

The UK agreed to the structure of negotiations and now Theresa May is saying effectively there will be no contingency/backstop. This breaks red line for EU.

Zubeneschamali

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The UK agreed to the structure of negotiations and now Theresa May is saying effectively there will be no contingency/backstop. This breaks red line for EU.

Nah - she can say what she likes at a speech to plamas the DUP.


It is what Olly says at the negotiations which matters.

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Nah - she can say what she likes at a speech to plamas the DUP.


It is what Olly says at the negotiations which matters.

Yes, I get that, but at what point does she have to start to take responsibility and understand that she isn't just talking to the DUP, or the Tories or whatever.

They keep going on about Global Britain, yet seem totally unaware that they impact on the rest of the world.

The UK, and in particular TM, seems to have been given a free pass to say whatever she wants on the basis that "she is talking to the domestic audience". Even the white paper starts off clearly aimed at the UK rather than the EU.

Imreoir2

Press conference delayed again to 2.25

Enzokk

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Press conference delayed again to 2.25

Is that local time (which is now) or 14h25 our time, an hour away?

Imreoir2

Enzokk wrote: »

Is that local time (which is now) or 14h25 our time, an hour away?

Not sure, but it was put back from 13.30

Leroy42

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Press conference delayed again to 2.25

I think, based on nothing really, that there is clearly a fight going on within the 27. Some of them are probably of the opinion that the UK are simply taking the P at this stage and enough is enough. Others will be of the opinion that let things simply drag on.

I'd say the speech by TM was a breaking point, it really throws the whole thing back to square one. She is ripping up the December agreement and saying that she has unilaterally changed it and its up to the EU to come up with a new agreement.

Trasna1

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Press conference delayed again to 2.25

I don't know why, but I'm getting a feeling they're going to attempt to light a fire under the UK government.

Delayed press conferences, in these circumstances is rarely a good sign.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/rachelkennedy84/status/1020284781899239427

Leroy42

Backstop is still the difficulty?

TM has just ruled out the backstop. There is no backstop.

An Ciarraioch

Leroy42 wrote: »

Backstop is still the difficulty?

TM has just ruled out the backstop. There is no backstop.

Well, technically, there's the UK interpretation of the backstop, but that's useless to either us or the EU.

ambro25

Trasna1 wrote: »

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Press conference delayed again to 2.25

I don't know why, but I'm getting a feeling they're going to attempt to light a fire under the UK government.

Delayed press conferences, in these circumstances is rarely a good sign.

Taking time to fine-tune the wording of the EU ‘solution’ requested by Theresa May earlier today.

Which is that the U.K. is being retrograded to the phase 1 pre-December stage (rather than a call off/walk out of the talks by the EU).

I can but hope.

But from my school of negotiations at least (learned in contentious IP situations), when the other side backtracks from agreed position(s), the approach for promoting cop-on is to practice asymmetry: hit them back twice as hard. But package it nicely enough.

Enzokk

Press conference has started. The EU is still backing Ireland, no backstop means no transition. The EU is still staying together, in short it seems.

seamus

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Nah - she can say what she likes at a speech to plamas the DUP.

She's a coward and a populist.

You'd think she was back in the 1970s where every single word of what she says couldn't be reported on and analysed five seconds after it comes out of her mouth.

She talks strong about the Union and history when standing in front of unionists, talks concession and reason when in front of the EU, and talks petty party politics when in standing in Westminster.

The woman has no backbone, no principles and no plan. She tells everyone to their face what they want to hear, in the hope that it works out in the end.

There's an absence of any leadership in the UK, so a no-deal Brexit is about 90% likely at this stage.

Christy42

Leroy42 wrote: »

Backstop is still the difficulty?

TM has just ruled out the backstop. There is no backstop.

I believe the lack of a backstop is the difficulty with the backstop.

I agree with the EU. The UK can come up with a suggestion of their own at this point. A hard Brexit is not a good thing for us but this time could be better spent preparing for it since the UK does not seem to want to negotiate.

Water John

The idea of splitting agri goods is nuts. Only those that have border checks remain aligned. So GMO etc cannot be guaranteed to the consumer by the EU as such goods could then come in via the UK.
UK can have their EU trade and eat their chlorinated chicken.
Barnier posing the questions which show how ridicolous the UK position is.

An Ciarraioch

After all the delays, nothing dramatic said so far.

An Ciarraioch

Key point - Barnier invites UK to discuss backstop next week.

Water John

UK invited to backstop talks, next week. That is the EU setting a deadline to get this sorted soon.

Taytoland

He might as well say the UK is invited to discuss a mission to Jupiter.

Water John

Tayto, you might explain you're cryptic quip?
Great listening to Barnier, is spite of the language difficulty. A professional in complete charge and top of his brief.

Seth Brundle

Water John wrote: »

Great listening to Barnier, is spite of the language difficulty. A professional in complete charge and top of his brief.

Cool, calm and collected. Firm but diplomatic.

Taytoland

Water John wrote: »

Tayto, you might explain you're cryptic quip?
Great listening to Barnier, is spite of the language difficulty. A professional in complete charge and top of his brief.

That a backstop is simply not up for negotiation as an Irish sea border is never going to be allowed to happen. And then he says preparations are being accelerated for a no deal, so he's talking out the both sides of his mouth. Don't know why he doesn't just say a no deal is coming.

Water John

It's the UK who are saying, there will be no diff between NI and UK nor between NI and ROI, but the UK is leaving.
He's inviting them to square the circle. So you believe the EU is to blame, not many except Brext Tories believe that.

Ellian

Taytoland wrote: »

That a backstop is simply not up for negotiation as an Irish sea border is never going to be allowed to happen. And then he says preparations are being accelerated for a no deal, so he's talking out the both sides of his mouth. Don't know why he doesn't just say a no deal is coming.

I would guess because that would play right into May's hands of getting to blame the whole thing on the recalcitrant, obstructionist EU. He invites her over to talks, politely but firmly reminds her that she already signed up for this, that internal UK political problems are not for the EU to resolve, reminds her also that the four freedoms have been an EU red line from Day One and invites her to offer her solutions.

swampgas

Taytoland wrote: »

That a backstop is simply not up for negotiation as an Irish sea border is never going to be allowed to happen. And then he says preparations are being accelerated for a no deal, so he's talking out the both sides of his mouth. Don't know why he doesn't just say a no deal is coming.

I don't see it that way - May is still talking in contradictions.

She could be honest and admit that the UK is abandoning the GFA and taking NI out of the Single Market and Customs Union, forcing a hard border with Ireland, in breach of the international treaty they signed and in breach of commitments made during phase 1. And accept that there will be no transition deal.

Or she could face down the DUP and the Brexiteers and go for a border in the Irish sea, keeping NI aligned with Ireland and avoiding a hard border. And start work on the transition deal.

If she can't face doing either, she should resign immediately. Her position is completely untenable.

seamus

Taytoland wrote: »

That a backstop is simply not up for negotiation as an Irish sea border is never going to be allowed to happen. And then he says preparations are being accelerated for a no deal, so he's talking out the both sides of his mouth. Don't know why he doesn't just say a no deal is coming.

The purpose is to leave the door open while also illustrating the urgency of walking through it. The EU is preparing for a "no deal" exit because it sees that as the current most likely outcome. If the UK wants a deal, it needs to come to the table with something. Anything.

briany

Water John wrote: »

It's the UK who are saying, there will be no diff between NI and UK nor between NI and ROI, but the UK is leaving.
He's inviting them to square the circle. So you believe the EU is to blame, not many except Brext Tories believe that.

So, does that mean the UK red line is "NO FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT (except for from the Republic of Ireland)?

An Ciarraioch

Taytoland wrote: »

That a backstop is simply not up for negotiation as an Irish sea border is never going to be allowed to happen. And then he says preparations are being accelerated for a no deal, so he's talking out the both sides of his mouth. Don't know why he doesn't just say a no deal is coming.

You have to read between the lines here - in diplomatic language, "inviting" politicians to talks effectively means to summon them, while to set a timetable for next week essentially says that talks will end without a concrete result.

Taytoland

swampgas wrote: »

Taytoland wrote: »

That a backstop is simply not up for negotiation as an Irish sea border is never going to be allowed to happen. And then he says preparations are being accelerated for a no deal, so he's talking out the both sides of his mouth. Don't know why he doesn't just say a no deal is coming.

I don't see it that way - May is still talking in contradictions.

She could be honest and admit that the UK is abandoning the GFA and taking NI out of the Single Market and Customs Union, forcing a hard border with Ireland, in breach of the international treaty they signed and in breach of commitments made during phase 1. And accept that there will be no transition deal.

Or she could face down the DUP and the Brexiteers and go for a border in the Irish sea, keeping NI aligned with Ireland and avoiding a hard border.  And start work on the transition deal.

If she can't face doing either, she should resign immediately.  Her position is completely untenable.

You mention the GFA being ripped up with a "hard" border on a no deal but don't mention it with a Irish sea border cutting NI off from the internal market and constitutionally. Barnier might be able to take some in the Irish government for fools but it's never going to fly with the British government or Parliament. Only two ways this will get settled and that is if the UK as a whole gets a free trade agreement with the EU and aligns with the CU and SM or a no deal.

The no deal as I have said for well over 2 years is the likely route.

Imreoir2

Taytoland wrote: »

You mention the GFA being ripped up with a "hard" border on a no deal but don't mention it with a Irish sea border cutting NI off from the internal market and constitutionally. Barnier might be able to take some in the Irish government for fools but it's never going to fly with the British government or Parliament. Only two ways this will get settled and that is if the UK as a whole gets a free trade agreement with the EU and aligns with the CU and SM or a no deal.

The no deal as I have said for well over 2 years is the likely route.

Sorry, but this is not true. Checks in Belfast port do not rip up the GFA. Nor do they interfere with the UK constitution. If they did then it would not be possible to carry out veterinary checks in Belfast port as is the case currently. It is the UK's position that they do not want to have two different customs arrangements in the UK, but there is nothing to say that they can not have two customs arrangements in the UK.

The UK has already agreed to a backstop to prevent a hard border, it is up to the UK to honor it's agreements.

El Weirdo

Taytoland wrote: »

Barnier might be able to take some in the Irish government for fools but it's never going to fly with the British government or Parliament.

I know, right? How could anyone think that they were fools?

Leroy42

Agree with Taytoland, I've never really been able to understand how the Backstop does not impinge on the GFA anymore that a border.

My thinking was that the EU put in the backstop on the very idea that it would never actually be needed, and would never be acceptable. My feeling is that that is the UK's position.

The problem is, that the UK have failed to come up with any credible alternative (which I agree really is only staying in the CU and SM). It looked like TM was attempting to move that way with Chequers but she has completed rowed back on that at this stage.

I think the EU is aware of that and knows that continuing to push for no border in NI is pushing the UK in one of two ways, and looking like the hard brexit option. But that was always likely to be the outcome anyway, so this was a way to try to get the UK to stay.

It looks like it will fail.