Brexit discussion thread IV

listermint

Enzokk wrote: »

As I said, once the government signaled they were not going to oppose the amendment the hands of all other parties were tied. The optics of the amendment and not supporting it is you are voting to put up a border in the UK. The Conservatives were making a huge deal of keeping the UK together during the debate and preserving the union. It had nothing to do with the GFA and what's best for NI, it was about keeping the UK as one. I agree with you that it is disappointing that Labour didn't oppose it, but they were not going to win that vote as its not the amendment that the rebels would vote with them so it just would have looked like they wanted to break up the UK.

Fair play to the ERG, they have the PM by the throat and will now do what they please.

Fair play.. not exactly the meaning of the word in context.


The EU now have to verbally and visibly cancel talks as the current arrangement conflicts with December agreement.

Let the markets deal with the UK and their currency.

This has to be hard and fast and while the government have taken a holiday. Really get the message across

Infini

Nody wrote: »

EU sent a memo to all governments after May's white paper was released urging them to step up preparations for a crash out; EU leadership and admin knows full well were things are heading but can't speak of it openly as it would be considered interfering in national politics to do so.

At this point it's only a matter of time before talks are declared a failure and it becomes all but certain that these talks are going to fail. I think as much as people might want to put it off it might be better to bite the bullet and say there's nothing left to negotiate without sorting the Irish Border out. You cant reason with idiot's they're the salt of the fúcking earth IMO and the only way to make them learn is through letting them screw up on their own and laughing at their failure afterwards.

There's no curing this level of ignorant stupidity so if they want to crash out and not negotiate seriously then the EU should stand back, make firm warnings that they're expecting a hard brexit due to being unable to get a coherent negotiating plan from the British and let the corroding effect's of reality bite them for a bit, do it now while there's a chance of them coming to their sense's but make it clear if they crash out on March 29th then the EU gave them every oppertunity for an out for this but we can't help them if they're unable to even sort out their own affairs.

Bigus

TM knew the white paper wasn't going to hack it with the EU , so now she can blame the ERG, maybe there's logic in there somewhere ? Maybe not .

Imreoir2

listermint wrote: »

Fair play.. not exactly the meaning of the word in context.


The EU now have to verbally and visibly cancel talks as the current arrangement conflicts with December agreement.

Let the markets deal with the UK and their currency.

This has to be hard and fast and while the government have taken a holiday. Really get the message across

Certainly there needs to be a strong condemnation from the EU and Irish government of the UK's bad faith in these talks by walking away from its commitments made last December and again in March.

Talks should now be suspended as long as the UK rules out a necessary part of the withdrawl treaty.

lawred2

listermint wrote: »

Fair play.. not exactly the meaning of the word in context.


The EU now have to verbally and visibly cancel talks as the current arrangement conflicts with December agreement.

Let the markets deal with the UK and their currency.

This has to be hard and fast and while the government have taken a holiday. Really get the message across

Yeah the response should be swift, there is nothing here to work with, the UK has renagued on previous promises. There can now be no deal on this basis.

The EUs response to this will be interesting.

Enzokk

listermint wrote: »

Fair play.. not exactly the meaning of the word in context.


The EU now have to verbally and visibly cancel talks as the current arrangement conflicts with December agreement.

Let the markets deal with the UK and their currency.

This has to be hard and fast and while the government have taken a holiday. Really get the message across

I mean they had a chance to exert their influence and they have taken it. They have won the battle for control. They have been clear on what they want from Brexit from the start and they have not deviated from it. It was up to Theresa May to stand up to them but they called her bluff. She could have tied one of the votes to a confidence in government and the ERG could have forced a general election where a lot of their colleagues would have lost their jobs. She folded and they stayed in the hand (to use a poker analogy), they have won the pot.

Spanish Eyes

I hope Leo and co. are shortening their Summer Recess and getting all Government Departments to work like billyo in prep for minimising the effects of Hard Brexit on us.

I hope the EU will extend funds to us if we need it too. Let them put their money where their mouths are on this, it is critical for us.

Honestly it is very depressing.

sdanseo

The border issue is impossible, essentially, to resolve with these developments as I understand it.

Therefore time for Leo to get tough. He doesn't have it in him, but he needs to do it anyway. He and the EU need to shut the door on these bastards and leave them out in the cold.

When a euro is worth more than a Great British Punt maybe they'll start thinking about the ramifications of their actions.

kowtow

This is all about the backstop, I've never been convinced that the UK signed up to it expecting it to be required when the time eventually came. They always expected a more constructive approach - the one characterized here as a fantasy / technology solution - as something which if the political will existed could be put in place for the special and limited circumstances represented by the NI border.

As one commentator pointed out tonight, if - as appears more likely - a hard brexit is the outcome the last thing the British will be doing is putting a hard border in Ireland. Neither, one expects, will we in the South wish to be the architects of one.

So sooner or later, whatever the rights and wrongs of it, we may end up with all the consequences of a hard Brexit for this Island, including a hard EU mandated border, which some will say is a direct consequence of the negotiating position taken by the EU.

lawred2

Has the UK government now not effectively abandoned the GFA as well?

Imreoir2

kowtow wrote: »

This is all about the backstop, I've never been convinced that the UK signed up to it expecting it to be required when the time eventually came. They always expected a more constructive approach - the one characterized here as a fantasy / technology solution - as something which if the political will existed could be put in place for the special and limited circumstances represented by the NI border.

As one commentator pointed out tonight, if - as appears more likely - a hard brexit is the outcome the last thing the British will be doing is putting a hard border in Ireland. Neither, one expects, will we in the South wish to be the architects of one.

So sooner or later, whatever the rights and wrongs of it, we may end up with all the consequences of a hard Brexit for this Island, including a hard EU mandated border, which some will say is a direct consequence of the negotiating position taken by the EU.

Border infastructure is merely the result of the policies that require it's existance. The condition for no border is no regulatory divergance, even if the British do not put up the infastructure themselves, they will have created the border by persuing policies that creat regulatory divergance on one side of the border.

Bigus

People including politicians seem to forget that in reality there's 26 borders to be considered , it just ours is the prototype/acid test .

kowtow

lawred2 wrote: »

Has the UK government now not effectively abandoned the GFA as well?

I'm not sure that, so long as nothing changes from their side with regard to the current border, that would be true?

They have the advantage of starting from the status quo.

lawred2

Bigus wrote: »

People including politicians seem to forget that in reality there's 26 borders to be considered , it just ours is the prototype/acid test .

Ours is the only physical land border

lawred2

kowtow wrote: »

I'm not sure that, so long as nothing changes from their side with regard to the current border, that would be true?

They have the advantage of starting from the status quo.

Nothing changes?

Imreoir2

sdanseo wrote: »

The border issue is impossible, essentially, to resolve with these developments as I understand it.

Therefore time for Leo to get tough. He doesn't have it in him, but he needs to do it anyway. He and the EU need to shut the door on these bastards and leave them out in the cold.

When a euro is worth more than a Great British Punt maybe they'll start thinking about the ramifications of their actions.

Unfortunatly the money will be going the other way, there is going to be a big hole in the EU budget, it's easy enought to see that in the absence of a deal, the Brits will welsh on their commitments to the EU budget. We, along with every other EU member state will have to pay more to plug the gap left by the UK.

listermint

kowtow wrote: »

This is all about the backstop, I've never been convinced that the UK signed up to it expecting it to be required when the time eventually came. They always expected a more constructive approach - the one characterized here as a fantasy / technology solution - as something which if the political will existed could be put in place for the special and limited circumstances represented by the NI border.

As one commentator pointed out tonight, if - as appears more likely - a hard brexit is the outcome the last thing the British will be doing is putting a hard border in Ireland. Neither, one expects, will we in the South wish to be the architects of one.

So sooner or later, whatever the rights and wrongs of it, we may end up with all the consequences of a hard Brexit for this Island, including a hard EU mandated border, which some will say is a direct consequence of the negotiating position taken by the EU.

Ah so it's the EU's fault...

... You'll have to do better

Imreoir2

lawred2 wrote: »

Ours is the only physical land border

Gibralter is f****d too.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1018985082273652738

I'm not sure which reaction will be more interesting to see the Markets or the EU. We are through the looking glass now folks

kowtow

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Border infastructure is merely the result of the policies that require it's existance. The condition for no border is no regulatory divergance, even if the British do not put up the infastructure themselves, they will have created the border by persuing policies that creat regulatory divergance on one side of the border.

That's my point really. On day one there is no regulatory divergence, that's a matter of fact, it just happens that the starting point works in the UK's favour here.

Throw your mind forward to Brexit + 1 day.

Apart from the fact that the UK will have bigger fish to fry (if they can land them..) ... who is going to be rushing to beef up the border?

I've seen many people argue that WTO rules will require them to in due course, but interestingly I've not heard that argument so much in the UK (where it could presumably effectively have been used many times against JRM etc.) and even the WTO is a process.

Hard Brexit, Day after - how do people here see a border actually happening?

Enzokk

Just to point out how crazy today and the votes today is,

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1018972934004756482

Infini

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Unfortunatly the money will be going the other way, there is going to be a big hole in the EU budget, it's easy enought to see that in the absence of a deal, the Brits will welsh on their commitments to the EU budget. We, along with every other EU member state will have to pay more to plug the gap left by the UK.

Difference though is the EU is big enough overall to take the hit in the short term. The brit's however will get hit with outstanding bills and other thing's that the EU will reclaim in tariffs until the Brit's cop on.

kowtow

listermint wrote: »

Ah so it's the EU's fault...

... You'll have to do better

Why?

listermint

kowtow wrote: »

Why?

Because none of this is the EUs Fault.


I suspect you know that but seem to be adverting the gaze from an idiotic UK government.

Why

I've no idea

Akrasia

kowtow wrote: »

That's my point really. On day one there is no regulatory divergence, that's a matter of fact, it just happens that the starting point works in the UK's favour here.

Throw your mind forward to Brexit + 1 day.

Apart from the fact that the UK will have bigger fish to fry (if they can land them..) ... who is going to be rushing to beef up the border?

I've seen many people argue that WTO rules will require them to in due course, but interestingly I've not heard that argument so much in the UK (where it could presumably effectively have been used many times against JRM etc.) and even the WTO is a process.

Hard Brexit, Day after - how do people here see a border actually happening?

Day 1 without a deal, Britain are no longer in the EU, and no longer have a FTA with the EU. Britain will have to pay WTO customs for every item they trade between the UK and EU. The EU cannot allow the UK to trade customs free without a treaty or else every other country in the world will be able to sue the EU for breaching WTO terms.

Spanish Eyes

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Gibralter is f****d too.

Yes looks like it, but they have no GFA equivalent. Gib has not been mentioned in dispatches at all, well AFAIS anyway. Wonder why that is, or will it all ramp up now?

It's an easier border to police than NI/ROI anyway, and it is policed quite thoroughly, well last time I was in the place (an utter kip BTW), that was the drill, and very strict they are too.

Hmmm.

lawred2

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Gibralter is f****d too.

Of course. Indeed.

trellheim

is jumping up and down screaming "fk sake" into a biscuit tin appropriate at this point ( I recommend it ) . Sorry its ridiculous ..


Tomorrow in Brussels "Ah Mr Robbins I see they have left you a lot of wiggle room " chuckle chuckle so " what can you offer" at which point it gets real serious real fast

charlie14

Infini wrote: »

At this point it's only a matter of time before talks are declared a failure and it becomes all but certain that these talks are going to fail. I think as much as people might want to put it off it might be better to bite the bullet and say there's nothing left to negotiate without sorting the Irish Border out. You cant reason with idiot's they're the salt of the fúcking earth IMO and the only way to make them learn is through letting them screw up on their own and laughing at their failure afterwards.

There's no curing this level of ignorant stupidity so if they want to crash out and not negotiate seriously then the EU should stand back, make firm warnings that they're expecting a hard brexit due to being unable to get a coherent negotiating plan from the British and let the corroding effect's of reality bite them for a bit, do it now while there's a chance of them coming to their sense's but make it clear if they crash out on March 29th then the EU gave them every oppertunity for an out for this but we can't help them if they're unable to even sort out their own affairs.

I was of the opinion at the time that should have happened in December to help concentrate their minds

kowtow

listermint wrote: »

Because none of this is the EUs Fault.


I suspect you know that but seem to be adverting the gaze from an idiotic UK government.

Why

I've no idea

I haven't speculated on whose "fault" any of it is, because that isn't going to make any practical difference to the outcome.

What nobody - in the UK or here - seems to dispute is that Ireland and particularly the border has been made the fulcrum in these EU / .UK negotiations. In part this is inevitable because of the border, but we've certainly done nothing publicly to tone things down or try and persuade them to take the battlefield elsewhere - for perfectly understandable reasons. In fact, we've often done the opposite and held our position in the hotseat out as evidence that the EU is united behind us, which to date it has been.

The questions is, if the UK in effect calls the EU's bluff - by default as looks increasingly likely - and ends up walking away from the table, how do things play out. Who is going to put a hard border up? Will it be the UK? Or - in the face of some real economic headwinds after a hard Brexit - are we going to be doing it ourselves?