Brexit discussion thread IV

flatty

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I hope Leo and co. are shortening their Summer Recess and getting all Government Departments to work like billyo in prep for minimising the effects of Hard Brexit on us.

I hope the EU will extend funds to us if we need it too. Let them put their money where their mouths are on this, it is critical for us.

Honestly it is very depressing.

I think there are far more needy countries in the eu than us, brexit or not. Just look at the average wage. We can easily cope. I think a rock hard brexit is the only thing now that has any chance of sorting this out. Good luck trying to nail trump down to a deal.

VinLieger

ambro25 wrote: »

The second results in caviar for Mogglidytes and soylent green for everyone else.

And literally everyone has spent the last 3 years telling the 52% this but they refuse to listen which only emboldens mogg et al in the populist demagoguery the lets them get away with the shambles we saw last night.


At this stage im on the side of let them crash out, it will undoubtedly hurt us but we will be far more prepared and have the EU to help us out, they will quickly realise the mistake they made but it will be too late to do anything about it and im sure they will still blame everyone else for the situation they will be in

Leroy42

Why is the fantasy of no border in NI allowed to be peddled? Are the likes of JRM and Davies really suggesting that the UK will have no borders at all (since NI cannot be treated differently).

So if they go with no border in NI (on a hard no deal brexit) then they must have no checks or border anywhere else. So nothing in the ports, the airports. No checks on goods, no checks on people.

Davies was wittering on yesterday about no need for a border as checks will be undertaken elsewhere (although he didn't care to elaborate on where). So now they need mobile customs units, and how does that stop the non-declared goods and people for entering the market?

Taking back control by throwing their borders completely open. And sure, it will mean that people cannot work, but surely it isn't the working people they have a problem with, it is the people looking for benefits. And once in they can easily move around the UK to different councils etc.

And that then leads to the question of on what basis can they strike trade deals if the borders are already open. So Canada already has a trade deal with the EU, so can bring goods into Ireland. Why bother with a trade deal with the UK, unless of course it is on better terms for Canada (and thus worse than the UK would have got by staying in the EU) when they can simply import to Ireland and then drive them freely into the UK market without any checks or tariffs.

It is quite insane

flatty

McGiver wrote: »

Infini wrote: »

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tony Connelly reiterates that the ERG amendments effectively mean no deal, by making the backstop illegal:

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1018868913369690112

If this is allowed to pass the EU will essentially turn around and basically say unless this changes there will be no deal. Economy will take a serious dump shoetly afterwards.

Time to short sterling

Just transferred a wedge.

Enzokk

So VoteLeave has been fined and reported to the police.

Vote Leave fined and reported to police by Electoral Commission

Vote Leave has been fined £61,000 and reported to the police by the Electoral Commission, after the watchdog found “significant evidence” of coordination with another campaign group, BeLeave.

The watchdog said it had imposed punitive fines on Vote Leave because it said the group had refused to co-operate fully with its investigation and declined to be interviewed. Its former chief executive, Matthew Elliott, had previously alleged it was the Electoral Commission that had refused to cooperate.

The commission’s long-awaited report said it had found evidence BeLeave spent more than £675,000 with data firm Aggregate IQ coordinated with Vote Leave, which should have been declared by the Brexit campaign group.

If there is a journalist to follow it is Carole Cadwalladr as she has done sterling work on this. She is also convinced that it is no coincidence that Russia is at the center of both these events. Firstly we have Brexit which hurts the EU, then we have Trump who is, well lets just leave it at that. In both instances the winner is Russia.

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1019111687973195781

flatty

Genuine question here though, is the CTA under threat, and if so from whom?
It will be very difficult for a British citizen to get work in Ireland after this because of EU law I'd imagine.

LeinsterDub

flatty wrote: »

Genuine question here though, is the CTA under threat, and if so from whom?
It will be very difficult for a British citizen to get work in Ireland after this because of EU law I'd imagine.

Currently it's not. When ERG and their ilk realise its being used a a back door to the UK, who knows? I never expected us to be at this point and as far as I can see nothing is stopping the crazy train anytime soon m

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

Taking back control by throwing their borders completely open. And sure, it will mean that people cannot work, but surely it isn't the working people they have a problem with, it is the people looking for benefits. And once in they can easily move around the UK to different councils etc.

You are mixing up two things here - an immigration border and a customs border. It is a hard Customs border that we are worried about, not an immigration border.

They never had any intention of putting up any immigration border anywhere. They were going to allow free movement of everyone into the UK, but prevent people from renting or buying a home, getting a job or registering for benefits without proof of entitlement to residency.

If this ever happens, it is going to annoy the living sh!t out of the Brexit voting Little Englanders, producing Papers Please in their own country every time they turn around. The Government doesn't actually issue any official ID bar a passport (on request) precisely because the Brits are so anti having to prove who they are to busybody officials in their own country, and yet that is the whole proposed system for immigration control in Brexit Britain.

ancapailldorcha

McGiver wrote: »

Time to short sterling

No more quips like this please.

Enzokk

To add to the ridiculous situation, let this tweet remind us of the situation we find ourselves in.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1019120984316633088

Just to remind ourselves as well that the BBC allowed Vote Leave to state their case before the report was released. They allowed Matthew Elliot, Chief Executive of Vote Leave, to state his case through lies. The report today contradicts his interview that the BBC allowed. Once again the BBC abdicated their duty of reporting.

Also as an aside on Matthew Elliot, seems like he is founding member of a group called, Conservative Friends of Russia.

ambro25

VinLieger wrote: »

(...)

At this stage im on the side of let them crash out, it will undoubtedly hurt us but we will be far more prepared and have the EU to help us out, they will quickly realise the mistake they made but it will be too late to do anything about it and im sure they will still blame everyone else for the situation they will be in

I’ve been on that side since end summer 2017, I have to confess.

I’d given them that long since June 2016, to see how they would be handling the referendum outcome, and the negotiations after depositing the Art.50 instrument.

But by early September 2017 it was clear to me that this was just going to stay a clusterf*ck of epic proportions right to the wire. That’s when we started implementing our own contingency plan, and bailed out of the UK by Feb this year.

As a longtime EU immigrant resident in the U.K. (1994), professional and top rate of tax payer, I felt deeply betrayed by the UK’s vote, but far more so by the May government’s handling of it since July 2016. And I still do (...I should probably seek some counselling about that, on reflection: it’s probably comparable to grieving, in some way).

I’m always sparing a thought for the 52%, and for you guys on the Emerald Island (we lived in Dub’ awhile in the 00s) right at the front row...but deep down, what I still want to see most, is the complete and utter discomfiture of all the Little Englanders who voted for this, as they witness their country, lifestyles, public services, etc slowly going dystopian.

I’ll not be the last to (re)extend the hand of friendship...after they demonstrably learn from their mistakes.

Sorry for the heart-pouring there, in the middle of the political thread. It’s an emotional subject, hitting so close to home because, until not so long ago, it was ‘home’ for a long time. Last night in the Commons was a toughie to track in the newsfeeds.

listermint

With so much billions of Russian money pouring into London for the last two decades is it any wonder it's come to this. The allure of yachts in Monaco and money to do anything you want has clearly turned various heads in the UK political sphere. These people have no morals , the usual beneficiarys don't have and ethics

Leroy42

It is not just the elites though. It is clear that many MP's feel forced to go along, at least in some form, with Brexit since that's the 'will of the people'.

And all the polls suggest that despite everything that has happened since the vote, the positions has changed little.

And that is why I fully believe that a full hard brexit is the only option. A large portion, and a seeming majority, of the UK want to leave and they want to leave fully. Anything less than a full brexit will only result in kicking the can down the road and we will be back to this point in the future.

Nody

ambro25 wrote: »

the complete and utter discomfiture of all the Little Englanders who voted for this, as they witness their country, lifestyles, public services, etc slowly going dystopian.

I’ll not be the last to (re)extend the hand of friendship...after they demonstrably learn from their mistakes.

Honestly I don't think they ever will; they will complain that it was better before (and it was) but the connection that it's somehow due to them will never hit home. No, it will be because those pakis who took over this or that and only living on wellfare, the batty boys who tore down the social and moral standards of society or the Golliwogg's who are even doctors these days what an outrage etc. that's the cause of it all.

The reason for this (and apologies to anyone offended by the slurs used to try to word it closer to how I'd guess they would phrase it in private) is simply anything else would mean accepting some unwelcome truths. It would require a near revolution in thinking and overcoming decades of thought patterns and training on how things are suppose to be. I'm not saying it's impossible; you only need to listen to for example Christian Picciolini explaining how he became the leader of the neo nazi movement in USA and why he left it all to see that. However those are not the route and change most people actually go through; most continue on with their private racism even if they don't flaunt it and they are not going to change.

However what I do think will happen and may bring you some joy is that with the lowering of standards the younger population who're already pro EU as it is will become more political. There's nothing like a bit of personal pain to make people want to get active to do something about it and as they are the future of UK that's where I'm putting my hope to for the future. If they however grow bitter and poisoned to hate EU and drink the Brexiteer Kool Aid about punishments from EU then UK is well and truly ****ed.

lawred2

Enzokk wrote: »

To add to the ridiculous situation, let this tweet remind us of the situation we find ourselves in.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1019120984316633088

Just to remind ourselves as well that the BBC allowed Vote Leave to state their case before the report was released. They allowed Matthew Elliot, Chief Executive of Vote Leave, to state his case through lies. The report today contradicts his interview that the BBC allowed. Once again the BBC abdicated their duty of reporting.

Also as an aside on Matthew Elliot, seems like he is founding member of a group called, Conservative Friends of Russia.

'punitive' fine of £60k

lol

Crashing an economy is far more punitive but won't affect these snake oil selling charlatans..

Friends of Russia indeed

Nody

lawred2 wrote: »

'punitive' fine of £60k

lol

Crashing an economy is far more punitive but won't affect these snake oil selling charlatans..

Friends of Russia indeed

That's the maximum they are allowed to fine legally; they complained they could not fine more but that was the legal limit.

kunst nugget

Enzokk wrote: »

Also as an aside on Matthew Elliot, seems like he is founding member of a group called, Conservative Friends of Russia.

More information on Matthew Elliot here.

It makes for grim reading.

Dont be at yourself

I think people are being naive if they think the impact of a hard Brexit will quickly have the UK scrambling to rejoin the EU or even to negotiate a DCFTA. The many negative consequences are the very aim for many of the disaster-capitalists pushing for a hard Brexit, and meanwhile it's entirely unlikely that the UK press will climb down from a narrative they've been pushing for years; if anything, they'll double-down on anti-EU rhetoric, laying the blame for the custom queues, the layoffs, the travel disruption at their feet, and as we've seen time and again, that will.be swallowed by the populace.

If we do end up with a hard Brexit, I see the UK running into the open arms of the US, with whatever concessions that entails.

Imreoir2

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

I think people are being naive if they think the impact of a hard Brexit will quickly have the UK scrambling to rejoin the EU or even to negotiate a DCFTA. The many negative consequences are the very aim for many of the disaster-capitalists pushing for a hard Brexit, and meanwhile it's entirely unlikely that the UK press will climb down from a narrative they've been pushing for years; if anything, they'll double-down on anti-EU rhetoric, laying the blame for the custom queues, the layoffs, the travel disruption at their feet, and as we've seen time and again, that will.be swallowed by the populace.

If we do end up with a hard Brexit, I see the UK running into the open arms of the US, with whatever concessions that entails.

I don't think the Brexiteers will back down at all, but their support in the population only gives them a razor thin majority. Faced with the reality of Brexit, it only needs a small swing to give the remainers the lead.

kunst nugget

Hard Brexit has always been the endgame, hasn't it. Create complete chaos and profit from that chaos. Rees-Mogg and ERG have never had any intention of there being any compromise with the EU in the interest of the great unwashed in the UK. They are working solely in the interests of themselves and their benefactors. They've completely hijacked democracy to screw over the man on the street and got him to cheer on his own demise. It's pretty incredible stuff.

If we as Irish people, who will see our country affected the most, are sitting here starting to think good riddance to them, imagine how absolutely sick of this nonsense the French and Germans must be. Everyone will truly want them gone very very soon.

At the end of the day, this is a negotiation between people. And patience and good will is all but gone. No one could have really thought the UK would be so unbelievably inept at this.

seamus

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I don't think the Brexiteers will back down at all, but their support in the population only gives them a razor thin majority. Faced with the reality of Brexit, it only needs a small swing to give the remainers the lead.

Which is pretty irrelevant at this stage. Even remainers are jumping on the, "we must hold fast to a democratic decision and cannot ask again, ever" bandwagon. Even if somehow they saw a massive shift to a remain by the end of the year, I don't see the machinations kicking in quickly enough to fix anything.

They've put the throttle on full and snapped off the handbrake.

At this stage, the EU sees what's coming and has started gearing up the prudent responses. The UK elite don't care what's coming; they'll always be protected. The population largely don't see what's coming and think it'll mostly be fine, that the EU wasn't that big a deal in the first palce.

kunst nugget

Deleted User wrote: »

If we as Irish people, who will see our country affected the most, are sitting here starting to think good riddance to them, imagine how absolutely sick of this nonsense the French and Germans must be. Everyone will truly want them gone very very soon.

At the end of the day, this is a negotiation between people. And patience and good will is all but gone. No one could have really thought the UK would be so unbelievably inept at this.

The longer it goes on, the less I think of it as ineptitude and more of it being a masterplan by elements in the Tory party to frustrate all opportunity to negotiate a deal and force a crash out.

trellheim

If we do end up with a hard Brexit, I see the UK running into the open arms of the US, with whatever concessions that entails.

If you remember, Obama said in 2016 that the UK would be at the back of the queue for any trade deal

Infini

McGiver wrote: »

Time to short sterling

*Readies Amazon account for mass purchasing*
*side note: Will we get an Amazon.ie site now?*

ambro25 wrote: »

I’ve been on that side since end summer 2017, I have to confess.

I’d given them that long since June 2016, to see how they would be handling the referendum outcome, and the negotiations after depositing the Art.50 instrument.

But by early September 2017 it was clear to me that this was just going to stay a clusterf*ck of epic proportions right to the wire. That’s when we started implementing our own contingency plan, and bailed out of the UK by Feb this year.

As a longtime EU immigrant resident in the U.K. (1994), professional and top rate of tax payer, I felt deeply betrayed by the UK’s vote, but far more so by the May government’s handling of it since July 2016. And I still do (...I should probably seek some counselling about that, on reflection: it’s probably comparable to grieving, in some way).

I’m always sparing a thought for the 52%, and for you guys on the Emerald Island (we lived in Dub’ awhile in the 00s) right at the front row...but deep down, what I still want to see most, is the complete and utter discomfiture of all the Little Englanders who voted for this, as they witness their country, lifestyles, public services, etc slowly going dystopian.

I’ll not be the last to (re)extend the hand of friendship...after they demonstrably learn from their mistakes.

Sorry for the heart-pouring there, in the middle of the political thread. It’s an emotional subject, hitting so close to home because, until not so long ago, it was ‘home’ for a long time. Last night in the Commons was a toughie to track in the newsfeeds.

It's a shame you ultimately have to go through this but to be honest the little Englander's need a hard lesson in humlility and a serious schooling in why you dont vote for stupid shít. We gave them as much opportunities as we could out of this but they brought this on themselves. They can use the Blame the EU card all they want but they voted for this and until they sort out their country it's all on their heads. I honestly can see UI and a Scotish Republic within 10 to 20 years of this now because of their own stupidity.

VinLieger

trellheim wrote: »

If you remember, Obama said in 2016 that the UK would be at the back of the queue for any trade deal

Trump has of course reversed that position but such a deal will also require the UK destroying a lot of its cultural product protections as that will be the first demand on any list the US make

seamus

trellheim wrote: »

If you remember, Obama said in 2016 that the UK would be at the back of the queue for any trade deal

To be fair, that was Obama speaking in the interests of keeping the UK in the EU, not making any promises.

The only thing Trump is consistent on is doing the exact opposite of whatever Obama did.

But it would be a mistake for the UK to rely on him for anything or to assume that any message of support said today will still hold true 6 hours later.

Obama's "back of the queue" commitment would be preferable to Trump's "whatever I currently feel like saying" commitment. At least then the UK would know what to expect.

Professor Moriarty

seamus wrote: »

To be fair, that was Obama speaking in the interests of keeping the UK in the EU, not making any promises.

The only thing Trump is consistent on is doing the exact opposite of whatever Obama did.

But it would be a mistake for the UK to rely on him for anything or to assume that any message of support said today will still hold true 6 hours later.

Obama's "back of the queue" commitment would be preferable to Trump's "whatever I currently feel like saying" commitment. At least then the UK would know what to expect.

In any business dealings, you would be extremely happy to negotiate with a potential customer/supplier who has very little option other than to do business with you. The idea that the US would accommodate the UK based on their 'special relationship' is laughable. They would exploit the UK's weakness in every possible way.

LuckyLloyd

kunst nugget wrote: »

Hard Brexit has always been the endgame, hasn't it. Create complete chaos and profit from that chaos. Rees-Mogg and ERG have never had any intention of there being any compromise with the EU in the interest of the great unwashed in the UK. They are working solely in the interests of themselves and their benefactors. They've completely hijacked democracy to screw over the man on the street and got him to cheer on his own demise. It's pretty incredible stuff.

kunst nugget wrote: »

The longer it goes on, the less I think of it as ineptitude and more of it being a masterplan by elements in the Tory party to frustrate all opportunity to negotiate a deal and force a crash out.

This has been my reading of the situation for a while. Particularly the likes of JRM, independently wealthy and with business interests that stand to benefit from a significant lowering of regulatory standards in the UK market. The terrible irony of Brexit is that many of those most ardently in favour will be among the worst affected. The North and Midlands truly do not understand the direct impacts on crucial manufacturing jobs a Hard Brexit entails.

ancapailldorcha

ambro25 wrote: »

I’ve been on that side since end summer 2017, I have to confess.

I’d given them that long since June 2016, to see how they would be handling the referendum outcome, and the negotiations after depositing the Art.50 instrument.

But by early September 2017 it was clear to me that this was just going to stay a clusterf*ck of epic proportions right to the wire. That’s when we started implementing our own contingency plan, and bailed out of the UK by Feb this year.

As a longtime EU immigrant resident in the U.K. (1994), professional and top rate of tax payer, I felt deeply betrayed by the UK’s vote, but far more so by the May government’s handling of it since July 2016. And I still do (...I should probably seek some counselling about that, on reflection: it’s probably comparable to grieving, in some way).

I’m always sparing a thought for the 52%, and for you guys on the Emerald Island (we lived in Dub’ awhile in the 00s) right at the front row...but deep down, what I still want to see most, is the complete and utter discomfiture of all the Little Englanders who voted for this, as they witness their country, lifestyles, public services, etc slowly going dystopian.

I’ll not be the last to (re)extend the hand of friendship...after they demonstrably learn from their mistakes.

Sorry for the heart-pouring there, in the middle of the political thread. It’s an emotional subject, hitting so close to home because, until not so long ago, it was ‘home’ for a long time. Last night in the Commons was a toughie to track in the newsfeeds.

The utterly insane part is that they still don't see it. I would have thought you'd see support for abandoning Brexit lead by tens of points in polls but no. It's got this sort of weird quaisi-religious following whereby the great project is on course to be wonderful and it's just remoaners talking Britain down that want to stop it.

The people have never really looked at the people behind Brexit. Jacob Rees-Mogg has already moved his investment firm to Dublin. James Dyson's business is based in Malaysia. And this is to say nothing of the legions of dodgy financiers and hedge fund managers. I've friends who've gone full on Muntir na hÉireann as well. No sort of rational thought at all.

And the people who voted for this, the ones in the north anyway will be much worse off once Dominic "British people would rather lie in than work hard" Raab get to work making the UK more competitive by nuking workers' rights. People who voted leave because they oppose globalisation are about to get a whole heap more forced down their throats once operation Singapore-on-Thames gets underway.

As for me, I don't really know what to do. I'm at an impasse with my career so I should resolve that before deciding where my future lies. I've been toying with the idea of moving back to Ireland or perhaps to the Netherlands or Germany if I could get work. What I currently do is very Oxford-Cambridge-London centric. You're lucky you speak more than one European language. In 2015, I used to answer with a flatout "No" when my friends would ask me if I'd consider moving home. Now though, I am not so sure. The UK has lost a lot of its lustre and while I love living here, the sheer toxicity that's been displayed towards immigrants by the modern British right does make one feel unwelcome.