Brexit discussion thread IV

Silent Running

Is there any possibility that when the electorate see the damage happening all around them, they will see the light and stop listening to the people now telling that it's all the fault of the horrible EU. If so, I can see a tough time for law and order in a post Brexit Britain.

Much as I would love to see Mogg's head on a stick outside parliament, the damage to society would be huge.

LuckyLloyd

Come on home. So many of my friends were super positive about Britain in 2014ish but the events of the last few years have seen them return. Leaving aside Brexit, the social policy of the Conservatives is surely impossible to stomach in of itself.

ambro25

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

(...) As for me, I don't really know what to do. I'm at an impasse with my career so I should resolve that before deciding where my future lies. I've been toying with the idea of moving back to Ireland or perhaps to the Netherlands or Germany if I could get work. What I currently do is very Oxford-Cambridge-London centric. You're lucky you speak more than one European language. In 2015, I used to answer with a flatout "No" when my friends would ask me if I'd consider moving home. Now though, I am not so sure. The UK has lost a lot of its lustre and while I love living here, the sheer toxicity that's been displayed towards immigrants by the modern British right does make one feel unwelcome.

You know my background and circumstances probably best amongst regular posters here, from activity on the Brexit thread iterations over the months (years, by now?) and PMs...and you’ll know how many times I have suggested -ever less facetiously as time went on- that you, like so many other highly-skilled non-Brits, consider bailing early to catch the best opportunities going, before Brexodus turns stampede.

But FWIW, if you’re looking to still stay, and with reference to our discussion some time ago, my old UK firm is losing another attorney by August (my ex-trainee, done good on his professional quals this year and moving on up locally) and is recruiting. They’re likely to struggle finding someone as well, not only because it’s Sheffield, but because it’s now 3 professionals and 4 support staff gone since I went in Feb, and that kind of staff issues sort of carries its own vibes within the profession. But they’re a good bunch, one of the best, if you’ve got training wheels on

ArmaniJeanss

murphaph wrote: »

Do they do that vote cancelling thing in Westminster where a pair of opposing voters abstain? If not then it's a dereliction of duty by the few dozen MPs who didn't show this evening.

No pairing done last night from what I can see.
No word yet on where Vince Cable was other than 'a meeting'.
Tim Farron was at a meeting about how he reconciled his Christian views with being in the liberal party. He believed the government majority would be so big that his vote would be irrelevant (technically he was correct!)

Leroy42

Silent Running wrote: »

Is there any possibility that when the electorate see the damage happening all around them, they will see the light and stop listening to the people now telling that it's all the fault of the horrible EU. If so, I can see a tough time for law and order in a post Brexit Britain.

Much as I would love to see Mogg's head on a stick outside parliament, the damage to society would be huge.

I would say no. All the evidence is there in front of them if they are cared to look, but even many remainers are simply offering the line of "just get on with it". They are bored of BRexit. They had their kick at the likes of Cameron and Osbourne, now lets just get on with whatever it is we are going to do.

The rich feel secure that they will be insulated from any negatives and in many cases ready to take advantage of any gains.

The middle class think they will be fine, sure its not like they are fruit pickers or whatever. Sure there might be some short term negatives, but nothing they can't deal with and sure after that we will have honey for everyone.

And the lower class are fed up with the way things are at the moment and feel they have nothing to lose. So how bad can it be?

So even if the worst fears come to pass, it will be the fault of TM for failing to deliver Brexit properly. Get Boris in to sort things out. And if not him, then JRM, of Davies, or Gove, or Patel.

'And sure we are suffering now, but I heard about a mechanic in Brittany that lost his business, so its hurting them too. And look at Greece, still a basket case, and Ireland. Ha, their unemployment rate shot up. Yeah, so did ours, and now we are all on the gig-economy with no holidays or guaranteed hours but at least we don't have to listen to Frau Merkel telling us what to do.'

Infini

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The utterly insane part is that they still don't see it. I would have thought you'd see support for abandoning Brexit lead by tens of points in polls but no. It's got this sort of weird quaisi-religious following whereby the great project is on course to be wonderful and it's just remoaners talking Britain down that want to stop it.

The people have never really looked at the people behind Brexit. Jacob Rees-Mogg has already moved his investment firm to Dublin. James Dyson's business is based in Malaysia. And this is to say nothing of the legions of dodgy financiers and hedge fund managers. I've friends who've gone full on Muntir na hÉireann as well. No sort of rational thought at all.

And the people who voted for this, the ones in the north anyway will be much worse off once Dominic "British people would rather lie in than work hard" Raab get to work making the UK more competitive by nuking workers' rights. People who voted leave because they oppose globalisation are about to get a whole heap more forced down their throats once operation Singapore-on-Thames gets underway.

As for me, I don't really know what to do. I'm at an impasse with my career so I should resolve that before deciding where my future lies. I've been toying with the idea of moving back to Ireland or perhaps to the Netherlands or Germany if I could get work. What I currently do is very Oxford-Cambridge-London centric. You're lucky you speak more than one European language. In 2015, I used to answer with a flatout "No" when my friends would ask me if I'd consider moving home. Now though, I am not so sure. The UK has lost a lot of its lustre and while I love living here, the sheer toxicity that's been displayed towards immigrants by the modern British right does make one feel unwelcome.

I'll be honest it might be better to cash out now and move to Ireland for a while cos once this all goes south I can see it getting really messy over there for a VERY long time. If people over there are determined to be the biggest idiots on the planet and throw all warning's to the wind then you cant stop it but at least you can get clear of it.

Leonard Hofstadter

Well I was there for over five years, and I loved it. I never once had a problem with the English (and I still don't - let's also not forget that the Welsh voted to leave as well), nor did they ever have a problem with me.

I came back at the start of the year because of a career opportunity in Dublin, and to be honest, I was very sorry to leave (despite Brexit).

Now, I am so glad I left, not just because I am doing something I find much more enjoyable, but in the current climate I think it's a matter of when, not if, things really start to hit the fan over there. The more I think about it the more I realise just how incredibly fortunate I was to have been given the opportunity to leave.

I think even if the opportunity I got hadn't come up, I would have started looking for jobs in Ireland anyway and would be trying to get back here as quickly as I could before things really go south.

When I left Ireland, the UK was an outward looking, liberal, tolerant country, and with much better economic and career prospects than Ireland (bear in mind I left in 2012). It had a competent Government, with the Lib Dems restraining the Tories from their worst instincts, and of course Cameron was very much a centrist.

It's none of those things now.

All the EU citizens I knew over there have all left to go back home, too (apart from one who has a permanent University job, and still wouldn't get something as good in Ireland). No prizes for guessing why they left either.

It makes me so sad for all my remain voting friends in their 20s and 30s over there, but unfortunately nobody over there seems to have any interest in trying to undo this mess.

It's staggering just how passive the population over there at large are and just how little public opinion has changed despite all the revelations - we simply would never put up with the level of lies and deception that they are prepared to put up with.

It also goes to show that despite our country's faults, there is an awful lot to be grateful about how we do things in little old Ireland.

Labour going to back a customs union amendment along with some Tories guaranteeing a customs union negotiating position if nothing else happens by Jan 21st.

VinLieger

Deleted User wrote: »

Labour going to back a customs union amendment along with some Tories guaranteeing a customs union negotiating position if nothing else happens by Jan 21st.

Kicking the can again, if they really meant it they would do it now but corbyn is as gutless as may is to take a solid position on this and run a proper opposition.

Imreoir2

Deleted User wrote: »

Labour going to back a customs union amendment along with some Tories guaranteeing a customs union negotiating position if nothing else happens by Jan 21st.

What good is that? There is no time to do anything at the end of January. The EU should not allow the UK to escape the consequences of their own bad faith tactics at the 11th hour.

Leroy42

Just on the issue on why more people are not calling for a halt to the hole shambles, here are two stories from today;

The 'Brexit dividend' money Theresa May promised for the NHS is a myth, Government's official spending watchdog confirms
The Office for Budget Responsibility, established in 2010 to provide independent forecasts for the Government, confirmed that Brexit is more likely to weaken than strengthen the public finances

and

Brexit campaign Vote Leave fined and referred to police for breaking electoral law
Official Brexit organisation – fronted by Boris Johnson and Michael Gove – breached electoral law by co-ordinating illegally with another group

What more do they want?

Imreoir2

Imreoir2 wrote: »

What good is that? There is no time to do anything at the end of January. The EU should not allow the UK to escape the consequences of their own bad faith tactics at the 11th hour.

Not really saying it's much good. But it would give two months between then and March for the country to realise that the choices left are no deal or stay in the customs union. No space for unicorns.

EdgeCase

I just cannot believe that it's July 2018 and they seem to be floundering around discussing what their negotiating position should be.

It's already too late. I don't see how the EU can deliver a decision by March 2019.

I would assume at this stage we would be lucky to get the negotiations concluded before sometime in February. At that rate the EU 27 has a month to tease out what happened, run it past 27 parliaments and in some cases may even referenda if it requires significant treaty changes.

Even the two year timetable was extremely ambitious. The UK has squandered all that time squabbling and should never have activated article 50 without a clear negotiation position and domestic political mandate for it. They had neither.

They moronically activated the withdrawal process with a plan that amounted to "Brexit means Brexit"

Unfortunately, I think this is already a hard Brexit as it won't make the deadline.

My prediction at this stage is a crash out and some kind of emergency summit aiming to mitigate economic consequences, but with a full chaotic brexit.

I would strongly suggest we start battening down the hatches for a very stormy 2019.

joeysoap

I don’t understand the significance of the VAT issue.

If I buy a tv in Curry’s in Newry I pay 20% vat

If I buy the same tv in Curry’s in Dundalk I pay 23% vat

I live in Dundalk , I have lots of friends in Newry and surrounding areas. We crisscross all the time. Beside not wanting a hard border what is the vat issue?

What changed last night , nothing to do with the VAT rate but I don’t understand the significance of the vote.

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

Just on the issue on why more people are not calling for a halt to the hole shambles, here are two stories from today;



and



What more do they want?

These realities are not being reported in the Telegraph, Sun, Express, Mail etc. Instead, they are fed guff about the Queen, British Bulldog, Johnny Foreigner, the evil EU and so on ad nauseam. Some people just want to read stuff that makes them feel good about who they think are and that's what they'll be given. They've been conditioned for years. Think Orwell's 'Two legs good, four legs bad.'

Sam Russell

joeysoap wrote: »

I don’t understand the significance of the VAT issue.

If I buy a tv in Curry’s in Newry I pay 20% vat

If I buy the same tv in Curry’s in Dundalk I pay 23% vat

I live in Dundalk , I have lots of friends in Newry and surrounding areas. We crisscross all the time. Beside not wanting a hard border what is the vat issue?

What changed last night , nothing to do with the VAT rate but I don’t understand the significance of the vote.

If you buy your TV from Amazon today, they will charge you VAT on behalf of the Irish Gov. The VAT amendment will mean your TV will not have Irish VAT charged, but the postman will look for the VAT and duty, pls clearance fee when it is delivered, so buying from Amazon will be pointless.

VAT will not be deferred for UK businesses importing from the EU, so not only will there be delays and customs clearance to be dealt with, there will be a severe cash flow problem that will kill most small businesses off all together.

Car assembly will stop pretty soon after Brexit, as they cannot sustain this stupidity.

ambro25

joeysoap wrote: »

I don’t understand the significance of the VAT issue. (...)
What changed last night , nothing to do with the VAT rate but I don’t understand the significance of the vote.

In very (very very) simplified terms, last night cemented the requirement to pay VAT upfront at the border, rather than the U.K. try to maintain some association of some sort with the EU harmonised VAT regime, meaning a BIG (really very big) cash-flow hit for companies involved come 29 March 2019.

In your case, you could buy the TV VAT free in Newry (U.K.), but you would have to pay 23% VAT when you cross back into the RoI on your way to Dundalk. Think about when you buy stuff online from the US and pay import duties and VAT: same thing, but now with the UK as well. Still, if the £ tanks enough, you could still be quids in.

Zubeneschamali

joeysoap wrote: »

I don’t understand the significance of the VAT issue.

If I buy a tv in Curry’s in Newry I pay 20% vat

If I buy the same tv in Curry’s in Dundalk I pay 23% vat

The issue is not the rate you pay. The issue is that VAT is applied.

If the UK is a 3rd country, Irish suppliers can claim VAT back when shipping to NI. The UK will not be allowed access to the EU VAT database if they leave the EU VAT system so they will not know anything about this. The receiver can sell the goods in NI and pocket the VAT.

Or smuggle the goods back over the border, sell them in a shop here and pocket the VAT.

Likewise in the other direction. Huge scope for fraud.

J Mysterio

flatty wrote: »

Genuine question here though, is the CTA under threat, and if so from whom?
It will be very difficult for a British citizen to get work in Ireland after this because of EU law I'd imagine.

I dont think i want a cta with brexit Britain.

Sam Russell

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The issue is not the rate you pay. The issue is that VAT is applied.

If the UK is a 3rd country, Irish suppliers can claim VAT back when shipping to NI. The UK will not be allowed access to the EU VAT database if they leave the EU VAT system so they will not know anything about this. The receiver can sell the goods in NI and pocket the VAT.

Or smuggle the goods back over the border, sell them in a shop here and pocket the VAT.

Likewise in the other direction. Huge scope for fraud.

We will be back to the VAT merry-go-round, where goods are exported VAT reclaimed, and re-imported VAT exempt, and re-exported etc.

Good times come again.

VinLieger

J Mysterio wrote: »

I dont think i want a cta with brexit Britain.

How does the CTA benefit us really in a hard brexit scenario? They arent gonna suddenly want to holiday here instead of Spain just because its easier to travel to.

J Mysterio

captainspeed wrote: »

It makes me so sad for all my remain voting friends in their 20s and 30s over there, but unfortunately nobody over there seems to have any interest in trying to undo this mess.

It's staggering just how passive the population over there at large are and just how little public opinion has changed despite all the revelations - we simply would never put up with the level of lies and deception that they are prepared to put up with.

It also goes to show that despite its faults, there is an awful lot to be grateful about how we do things in little old Ireland.

Funny too how the visit of Trump had them all up in arms and protesting... they should take a good, hard look at their own leader and her government.

I'm starting to think that the only hope for the UK might be for the monarchy to condemn the government or step in in some way. Would cause hughe uproar and scandal, but the people need to wake up and that may be one of the only things to stir them.

J Mysterio

VinLieger wrote: »

How does the CTA benefit us really in a hard brexit scenario? They arent gonna suddenly want to holiday here instead of Spain just because its easier to travel to.

We will have a more stable society and economy, while theirs will go down the toilet. There could be a big influx of people and they are free to come.

breatheme

I cannot imagine the cognitive dissonance the Brexiters would go through if the queen dissolved the government.

seamus

EdgeCase wrote: »

I just cannot believe that it's July 2018 and they seem to be floundering around discussing what their negotiating position should be.

It's already too late. I don't see how the EU can deliver a decision by March 2019.

...

I would strongly suggest we start battening down the hatches for a very stormy 2019.

The EU is already doing this. This week they've started waving the black flag. This is not just "careful now" stuff from the EU, the effort to put "hard Brexit" contingencies in place is huge and not something to be done lightly. The EU is aware of everything you're saying above, and putting the mechanisms in place now to deal with it, while the UK watches on unaware.

To take your storm analogy; the UK is standing outside struggling to put up their umbrella while the EU is bringing the garden furniture inside and putting sandbags around the house.

In the feast of ironies that is Brexit, one that stands out is that it has proven the immense value of having EU politicians who are not beholden to petty local or even regional politics, but instead work on behalf of the union as a whole.

At this stage there is probably very little that can be adequately delivered on a Brexit deal beyond an extension of any transitional period, and the EU is probably wasting its time engaging with the UK. But the EU is not going to say that. There is nothing which would embolden UK politicians more than the EU walking away or otherwise trying to shout down the UK. That's what Brexiteers were told the EU is like.

But instead, they will continue to sit at the table, with the same set of deals and requirements that they have had for months, and the same reasonable but unwavering position on a deal. And they'll let the UK continually run back and forth between the table and their own parliament, unaware of the futility of their efforts.

Thus when they do crash out, nobody can say the EU caused it, that the EU was an unreasonable, bureaucratic monster. Instead, it turns out that describes the UK.

Kermit.de.frog

Thought this was a joke at the time

http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2016/06/24/thousands-of-british-refugees-make-dangerous-journey-across-the-irish-sea/

Could turn out to be a documentary the way things are going.

VinLieger

breatheme wrote: »

I cannot imagine the cognitive dissonance the Brexiters would go through if the queen dissolved the government.

The sovereign taking away their sovereignty, it would be delicious to watch

lawred2

breatheme wrote: »

I cannot imagine the cognitive dissonance the Brexiters would go through if the queen dissolved the government.

be seriously funny to watch..

I think their heads would swivel to the point of falling off.

Apparently, the Queen sacked the PM of Australia in 1975. Some craic if she sacked May.

EdgeCase

Sam Russell wrote: »

We will be back to the VAT merry-go-round, where goods are exported VAT reclaimed, and re-imported VAT exempt, and re-exported etc.

Good times come again.

The bigger issue would be if VAT becomes payable up front, it has huge cashflow implications for business in both jurisdictions.