Brexit discussion thread IV

J Mysterio

Here is a good article on the VAT issue from the FT:

VAT: Brexit’s hidden border dilemmaThe UK will have to choose between costly delays or staying within the EU system

flatty

J Mysterio wrote: »

flatty wrote: »

Genuine question here though, is the CTA under threat, and if so from whom?
It will be very difficult for a British citizen to get work in Ireland after this because of EU law I'd imagine.

I dont think i want a cta with brexit Britain.

Thanks, but that wasn't what I asked.

ancapailldorcha

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Come on home. So many of my friends were super positive about Britain in 2014ish but the events of the last few years have seen them return. Leaving aside Brexit, the social policy of the Conservatives is surely impossible to stomach in of itself.

Part of me is still hoping that Brexit will be reversed. I suppose it could theoretically happen if a transition period was agreed between the UK and the EU and political will for a people's deal grew.

ambro25 wrote: »

You know my background and circumstances probably best amongst regular posters here, from activity on the Brexit thread iterations over the months (years, by now?) and PMs...and you’ll know how many times I have suggested -ever less facetiously as time went on- that you, like so many other highly-skilled non-Brits, consider bailing early to catch the best opportunities going, before Brexodus turns stampede.

Yep. I do indeed.

I am so immensely thankful for being Irish at the moment. My choice is either relocating back to Ireland and risking unemployment or heading to the continent with the handicap of not speaking a relevant language.

Part of me thinks Brexit can be cancelled. It's such a horrible thing to inflict on future generations of people in this country that it's completely unjustifiable and it's being perpetrated by a shadowy cabal who are frothing at the prospect of turning the UK into a Washington vassal state.

I think there are a few Irish expats living in the UK posting here and am wondering what they're thinking is on the subject.

ambro25 wrote: »

But FWIW, if you’re looking to still stay, and with reference to our discussion some time ago, my old UK firm is losing another attorney by August (my ex-trainee, done good on his professional quals this year and moving on up locally) and is recruiting. They’re likely to struggle finding someone as well, not only because it’s Sheffield, but because it’s now 3 professionals and 4 support staff gone since I went in Feb, and that kind of staff issues sort of carries its own vibes within the profession. But they’re a good bunch, one of the best, if you’ve got training wheels on

Not 100% sure what I'm looking for. Thanks for the very kind offer though. I love Sheffield. Cracking city and it's mad they can't find staff.

Anyway, both Tim Farron and Vince Cable missed last night's very close Brexit vote which the government won by a paltry 3 votes.

UsedToWait

Meanwhile, the adults in the room push on with business:

The European Union and Japan have signed one of the world's biggest free trade deals, covering nearly a third of the world's GDP and 600 million people.

...

Firms in the EU, the world's biggest free-trade zone, currently export more than $100bn (£75bn) in goods and services to Japan, the world's third-biggest economy, every year.

Japan's Minister for Economic Revitalisation, Toshimitsu Motegi, said: "At a time when protectionist measures are gaining steam globally, the signing of the Japan-EU deal today will show the world once again our unwavering political will to promote free trade."


EU Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker said the deal underlined the "win-win" solutions offered by free trade.

Mr Juncker said: "[The] impact of today's agreement goes far beyond our shores. Together we are a making, by signing this agreement, a statement about the future of free and fair trade.

"We are showing that we are stronger and better off when we work together. And we are leading by example, showing that trade is about more than tariffs and barriers. It is about values, principles and finding win-win solutions for all those concerned."

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44857317

J Mysterio

Meanwhile...

EU and Japan sign one of history’s largest trade agreements
Move seen as counterweight to US protectionism

ancapailldorcha

J Mysterio wrote: »

Meanwhile...

EU and Japan sign one of history’s largest trade agreements
Move seen as counterweight to US protectionism

It also highlights another problem with the UK-EU negotiations. The EU has a fully-fledged team of seasoned professionals whereas the departments of exiting the EU and International trade are both less than a few years old.

J Mysterio

flatty wrote: »

Thanks, but that wasn't what I asked.

My understanding is that the CTA will continue as it stands, both the UK and Ireland have committed to it. That said, this is surely subject to change as relations worsen and the situation becomes more complicated.


I don't see that it will be difficult for a UK person to come here and work if the CTA stands as - regardless of whether they are an EU citizen or not - as when they are here, EU law will simply apply to them, it won't matter that they came from the UK.

J Mysterio

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It also highlights another problem with the UK-EU negotiations. The EU has a fully-fledged team of seasoned professionals whereas the departments of exiting the EU and International trade are both less than a few years old.

... And they have no leadership or direction.

VinLieger

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

aside: UK does not manufacture televisions, so once the existing stocks (imported from Asia) run out then bye bye go deals on tv's in this scenario

They dont make phones, computers or any everyday consumer technology really at all. How much will a new phone cost in a no deal brexit? Also if they thought roaming on holidays was bad now? Think about what its gonna be like outside the new EU rules.

FrancieBrady

Is last night's events in UK parliament (circus?) showing on the markets yet or are we going to have to wait for the EU to respond.

An Ciarraioch

UsedToWait wrote: »

Meanwhile, the adults in the room push on with business:

The European Union and Japan have signed one of the world's biggest free trade deals, covering nearly a third of the world's GDP and 600 million people.

...

Firms in the EU, the world's biggest free-trade zone, currently export more than $100bn (£75bn) in goods and services to Japan, the world's third-biggest economy, every year.

Japan's Minister for Economic Revitalisation, Toshimitsu Motegi, said: "At a time when protectionist measures are gaining steam globally, the signing of the Japan-EU deal today will show the world once again our unwavering political will to promote free trade."


EU Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker said the deal underlined the "win-win" solutions offered by free trade.

Mr Juncker said: "[The] impact of today's agreement goes far beyond our shores. Together we are a making, by signing this agreement, a statement about the future of free and fair trade.

"We are showing that we are stronger and better off when we work together. And we are leading by example, showing that trade is about more than tariffs and barriers. It is about values, principles and finding win-win solutions for all those concerned."

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44857317

On a similar theme, Fintan O'Toole unearths a copy of the UK's 1971 White Paper on EEC accession - it recognised the global division into power blocs, stating that Britain couldn't afford to remain in isolation:

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-brexit-white-paper-puts-uk-on-road-to-nowhere-1.3566782?mode=amp&__twitter_impression=true

joeysoap

Thanks for the replies. I understand the VAT issue now. (Fwiw I bought my last two TVs in Dundalk, in common with most around here (unless the difference is really significant) I support local shops.

What is very noticeable is that residents of NI (within say 20kms) dine out a lot in this area. If a hard border does materialise restaurants and pubs around here will definately lose business. I was in ballymascanlon hotel recently and 50% of the cars in the car park were NI.

Leroy42

VinLieger wrote: »

They dont make phones, computers or any everyday consumer technology really at all. How much will a new phone cost in a no deal brexit? Also if they thought roaming on holidays was bad now? Think about what its gonna be like outside the new EU rules.

To be fair the UK, I think it was Davies already dealt with the roaming issue.

Paraphrasing but basically they said that since Vodafone etc had already agreed as part of EU rules they would want o be fair to their UK customers.

So, you know, sorted.

Sam Russell

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

aside: UK does not manufacture televisions, so once the existing stocks (imported from Asia) run out then bye bye go deals on tv's in this scenario

Actually, the TVs are mostly made in Eastern Europe or in Turkey. {At least the last two I have bought are made in Poland, and Hungary}. Vestel are a Turkish company and make most of the low cost brands like Walker.

flatty

I'm stuck in the UK by an utterly intransigent wife, who when I pointed out the possibility of rationing simply replied that half the population could do with it anyway. I think brexit is utterly appalling, economic reasons aside. I'd pay more to avoid it, but such is life. The political situation has deprived moderates of a voice. Its the same situation that allows a few spittle flecked zealots to run riot across swathes of the middle East. Moderates are moderate.
And do you know what, half of me thinks fcuk em. I own a few acres with buildings near where I grew up, and have some euros. I have my Irish citizenship. I despair at my wife inflicting this on the kids, but if things go fully tits up, we will just have to take them out of private school.
There may be positives in the split up of the UK. An independent Scotland and a reunified Ireland would be great positives. Let England "naval" gaze as they gradually become poorer.
One thing I would say is that we have a very skewed view of poverty in the west these days. Recreational shopping becoming a thing of the past in England would be no bad thing.
My main fear, living in a reasonably nice house in a reasonable area is a crime wave the likes of which we haven't seen, and in the past year, for the first time, I've been wary of my accent in parts of the country.

joeysoap

Sam Russell wrote: »

Actually, the TVs are mostly made in Eastern Europe or in Turkey. {At least the last two I have bought are made in Poland, and Hungary}. Vestel are a Turkish company and make most of the low cost brands like Walker.

My two Samsung’s were manufactured in Slovakia.

Enzokk

J Mysterio wrote: »

Meanwhile...

EU and Japan sign one of history’s largest trade agreements
Move seen as counterweight to US protectionism

What I found interesting is that they moved quickly to sign this deal, for Brexit. They are trying to get it through before Brexit day in March 2019 so that it would be ratified by all and if there is a transition deal it would allow Japan and the UK that extra time to get their deal done under these new terms. They would then negotiate from this deal I suppose on their own deal between Japan and the UK. There are a lot of Japanese companies in the UK due to the EU so it makes sense.

Back to the Vote Leave issue, there may be no way to launch a legal challenge to the result of the referendum, even with the broken laws and illegalities that occurred. Had this been a local referendum or election the result could be challenged but because the result was not binding there is nothing legally to overturn.

https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1019114112276750336

Rhineshark

I feel a bit bad for Darren Crimes (BeLeave). It was the other guy involved (Wylie) that was the whistleblower. Now, sure, you could argue that of course he'd put their case sympathetically, but I was inclined to believe him in that they were naively trusting and out of their depth.

Hell of a sharp lesson for them about who they can trust. Grimes (whose name was on the paperwork) appears to have gotten the fine personally though whereas Vote.Leave will just be able to laugh it off.

flatty

Rhineshark wrote: »

I feel a bit bad for Darren Crimes (BeLeave). It was the other guy involved (Wylie) that was the whistleblower. Now, sure, you could argue that of course he'd put their case sympathetically, but I was inclined to believe him in that they were naively trusting and out of their depth.

Hell of a sharp lesson for them about who they can trust. Grimes (whose name was on the paperwork) appears to have gotten the fine personally though whereas Vote.Leave will just be able to laugh it off.

I have zero sympathy. None.

VinLieger

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Is last night's events in UK parliament (circus?) showing on the markets yet or are we going to have to wait for the EU to respond.

Its down from 1.13 to about 1.124 since yesterday

flatty

It's odd that. I exchanged yesterday at 113, but I'm amazed it's only down that much. Presumably some in the markets still expect a deal, unless buy triggers are artificially supporting it??

kowtow

J Mysterio wrote: »

I'm starting to think that the only hope for the UK might be for the monarchy to condemn the government or step in in some way. Would cause hughe uproar and scandal, but the people need to wake up and that may be one of the only things to stir them.

Apart from being unconstitutional, wouldn't the Monarch seizing control be a little undemocratic?

J Mysterio

kowtow wrote: »

Apart from being unconstitutional, wouldn't the Monarch seizing control be a little undemocratic?

Wasn't saying 'seize control' but 'intervention'. Perhaps a rallying speech on TV/radio etc to focus minds.



My understanding is that the government serve at her Majesty's pleasure anyhow though, I think she could legally dissolve the government and order a GE? May be the best thing at this stage. If they intend to go on recess to Sept 4th, may aswell use that time constructively. They are screwed now either way, this is only going one way -> disaster.

VinLieger

kowtow wrote: »

Apart from being unconstitutional, wouldn't the Monarch seizing control be a little undemocratic?

The UK doesnt have a constitution, its also one of the queens key responsibilities to give permission to form governments and dissolve them when needed, please explain how dissolving it therefore causing an election where the people get to once again choose their politicians is undemocratic?

kowtow

VinLieger wrote: »

The UK doesnt have a constitution, its also one of the queens key responsibilities to give permission to form governments and dissolve them when needed, please explain how dissolving it therefore causing an election where the people get to once again choose their politicians is undemocratic?

It certainly does have a Constitution, albeit not one written down in one place.

Parliament is sovereign, and quite apart from anything else I don't think the Fixed Term Parliament Act makes any provision for Her Majesty to turn up and knock the govt. on the head simply because she thinks they are doing a bad job of it.

flatty

flatty wrote: »

It's odd that. I exchanged yesterday at 113, but I'm amazed it's only down that much. Presumably some in the markets still expect a deal, unless buy triggers are artificially supporting it??

Yeah I was surprising a bigger fall after the debacle last night. Must be something happening to keep it up.

Sierra Oscar

Deleted User wrote: »

Yeah I was surprising a bigger fall after the debacle last night. Must be something happening to keep it up.

The markets have been behaving unusually for many months now. The IMF issued a statement warning about it as recently as yesterday. They've been airing concerns but no one seems to be listening.

The markets don't seem to be pricing in risk at the moment, for whatever reason I don't know. There's a theory that they have been unable to correctly read risk for years now as the markets have been propped up by Central Banks around the world.

It's grand at the moment as the world economy continues to expand but you wonder if that will continue given the ongoing Brexit shambles and escalating trade wars.

Imreoir2

kowtow wrote: »

Apart from being unconstitutional, wouldn't the Monarch seizing control be a little undemocratic?

Just about as undemocratic as having a monarch in the first place.

Imreoir2

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The markets have been behaving unusually for many months now. The IMF issued a statement warning about it as recently as yesterday. They've been airing concerns but no one seems to be listening.

The markets don't seem to be pricing in risk at the moment, for whatever reason I don't know. There's a theory that they have been unable to correctly read risk for years now as the markets have been propped up by Central Banks around the world.

It's grand at the moment as the world economy continues to expand but you wonder if that will continue given the ongoing Brexit shambles and escalating trade wars.

It's quite possible that markets have been expecting a hard Brexit for a while now and have already factored it into their actions. That would explain a lack of reaction to something that just confirms the basis they have already been working on.

Silent Running

Imreoir2 wrote: »

It's quite possible that markets have been expecting a hard Brexit for a while now and have already factored it into their actions. That would explain a lack of reaction to something that just confirms the basis they have already been working on.

If it is already priced in at ~£1.13 the market must be pretty happy with a hard Brexit. I think they are still hoping that some sense will dawn. If it doesn't dawn soon, I'd say there will be a run on GBP.