Brexit discussion thread IV

Infini

Imreoir2 wrote: »

It's quite possible that markets have been expecting a hard Brexit for a while now and have already factored it into their actions. That would explain a lack of reaction to something that just confirms the basis they have already been working on.

Of course they could be also just trundling along as normal until something of serious effect happens. The problem with Brexit is that its unprecidented. There's no way to completely know how it will play out completely but there could be plenty wondering WILL they truly crash out? Are they really that dense? Anyone with any cop on would be wise to get out now because once Hard Brexit becomes 100% certain it will get messy very fast.

Sierra Oscar

Imreoir2 wrote: »

It's quite possible that markets have been expecting a hard Brexit for a while now and have already factored it into their actions. That would explain a lack of reaction to something that just confirms the basis they have already been working on.

Perhaps, but it doesn't seem like the market has priced in a hard Brexit at the moment. I know it's a crude calculation, but the FTSE is up 15% since the Brexit vote. The DAX is up 23% and the DOW is up 35%. I would have expected to see Sterling come under far more pressure too than it has to date.

It does seem pretty extraordinary considering all the volatility that we all can clearly see. It's peculiar that we are seeing huge upward market movements every time we seemingly see progress on Brexit / diffusing trade tensions but little to no backward movement when the progress made is undone.

Rhineshark

Just regarding the sterling exchange rate - that's not really budged much. I was looking at it after Johnson resigned and it was 1.13, compared to 1.13 the day before too. Some twitches once you're into more decimal places but nothing that shows after rounding. It seems to have been 1.13 for months.

It is possible that I'm looking at that far too simplistically and it is the third dec place I should be scrutinizing.

J Mysterio

Brexit: Ireland says no EU agreement 'without backstop'

"There can be no Brexit Withdrawal Agreement without a backstop, the Irish Department of Foreign Affairs has said.

"It is fully accepted and understood that there can be no Withdrawal Agreement without a legally operable backstop ensuring that there will be no hard border," a spokesperson said.

"It was responding to Monday night's vote in the House of Commons.

The vote effectively rendered the EU's version of the backstop unlawful."

Infini

J Mysterio wrote: »

Brexit: Ireland says no EU agreement 'without backstop'

"There can be no Brexit Withdrawal Agreement without a backstop, the Irish Department of Foreign Affairs has said.

"It is fully accepted and understood that there can be no Withdrawal Agreement without a legally operable backstop ensuring that there will be no hard border," a spokesperson said.

"It was responding to Monday night's vote in the House of Commons.

The vote effectively rendered the EU's version of the backstop unlawful."

All we can do ultimately is hold the line. We dont want the border but if the Brits want to force the issue it they who will suffer the most severe consequences. On top of that there's no telling how unsettled the situation up the North UNLESS of course the currnt no border movement were to evolve into a province wide reunification movement to allow people to vent aginst the ignorant dopes who caused this situation.

flatty

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Imreoir2 wrote: »

It's quite possible that markets have been expecting a hard Brexit for a while now and have already factored it into their actions. That would explain a lack of reaction to something that just confirms the basis they have already been working on.

Perhaps, but it doesn't seem like the market has priced in a hard Brexit at the moment. I know it's a crude calculation, but the FTSE is up 15% since the Brexit vote. The DAX is up 23% and the DOW is up 35%. I would have expected to see Sterling come under far more pressure too than it has to date.

It does seem pretty extraordinary considering all the volatility that we all can clearly see. It's peculiar that we are seeing huge upward market movements every time we seemingly see progress on Brexit / diffusing trade tensions but little to no backward movement when the progress made is undone.

I'd expect the ftse to rise though as it is just a listing in London, and wouldn't be affected sterling weakness, possibly the converse, as people seek to mitigate risk??

Sierra Oscar

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The markets have been behaving unusually for many months now. The IMF issued a statement warning about it as recently as yesterday. They've been airing concerns but no one seems to be listening.

The markets don't seem to be pricing in risk at the moment, for whatever reason I don't know. There's a theory that they have been unable to correctly read risk for years now as the markets have been propped up by Central Banks around the world.

It's grand at the moment as the world economy continues to expand but you wonder if that will continue given the ongoing Brexit shambles and escalating trade wars.

This morning I randomly saw a list of central bank rates as well, if the **** does hit the fan any time soon they don't have much in the ways of weapons to prop anything up more.

Zubeneschamali

Markets have certainly not priced in a hard Brexit - they are still assuming something sensible will happen. Countries just don't cripple themselves on purpose like this, it is unprecedented.

As March approaches with no sign of a good deal or a smooth transition, Sterling will drop and money will pour out of the UK. If the crashout actually happens, it'll be worse than 2009, which knocked 4% off UK GDP. I'll guess a crashout will see 10% wiped off UK GDP in 2019, with corresponding damage to Sterling and FDI, the first year of a prolonged recession.

Imreoir2

J Mysterio wrote: »

Brexit: Ireland says no EU agreement 'without backstop'

"There can be no Brexit Withdrawal Agreement without a backstop, the Irish Department of Foreign Affairs has said.

"It is fully accepted and understood that there can be no Withdrawal Agreement without a legally operable backstop ensuring that there will be no hard border," a spokesperson said.

The difference between the two sides is mad.

That statement could have been made, word for word, over a year ago and at every point since. The UK on the other hand seem to be chainging on fundemental points on an almost daily basis. The only consistancy from the UK side is that "Brexit means Brexit".

Infini

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Markets have certainly not priced in a hard Brexit - they are still assuming something sensible will happen. Countries just don't cripple themselves on purpose like this, it is unprecedented.

As March approaches with no sign of a good deal or a smooth transition, Sterling will drop and money will pour out of the UK. If the crashout actually happens, it'll be worse than 2009, which knocked 4% off UK GDP. I'll guess a crashout will see 10% wiped off UK GDP in 2019, with corresponding damage to Sterling and FDI, the first year of a prolonged recession.

Considering how exposed their economy is to all this it could only be a milder forecast. Something as this could risk a full blown depression in the UK expecially if President Troll agrivates things with his idiot first policy of starting unneeded trade wars.

I know our farmers could be exposed to Brexit alright but the UK exports a good chunk of produce to Europe as well. Should they really jump the shark on this I wonder if our own farmers could capitalise by replacing UK exports with Mainland Europe exports to offset the damage expecially since buying our produce would be Tariff free and EU standard. Wouldnt be suprised if they end up expanding Dublin, Cork and Rosslare to cater to the demand in that scenario.

murphaph

J Mysterio wrote: »

We will have a more stable society and economy, while theirs will go down the toilet. There could be a big influx of people and they are free to come.

Mostly it would be skilled Brits that we'd welcome. It is a genuine thing to consider though.

EdgeCase

Sam Russell wrote: »

Actually, the TVs are mostly made in Eastern Europe or in Turkey. {At least the last two I have bought are made in Poland, and Hungary}. Vestel are a Turkish company and make most of the low cost brands like Walker.

My most recent Samsung was made in Slovakia.

EdgeCase

One thing I'm a bit concerned about is Irish supply chains that are plugged into the UK due to historical proximity. An awful lot of companies see UK & Ireland as a single market and I would be very concerned that we would just end up paying some ridiculous price hikes on good and services, rather than the supply chains rerouting.

There are also some minor technical barriers to trade here on things like electrical appliances due to the very minor issue of a different plug, which would lump us (and Malta and Cyprus) into an offshoot of the UK market for white goods, electronics and so on, even though it's just a very minor technicality. It might be a logical move to phase in the latest and saftest version of thr more globally normal CEE 7 plug & socket system that is standard across almost all of Europe and also places like South Korea etc. It's being phased in in Italy, Denmark and Spain and Greece transitioned to it too without any issues. I don't really see why we couldn't too. Any technicalities with ring circuits (which aren't as commonly used here anyway as the UK) can be overcome with locally fused sockets for retrofits.

Also 70+% of out fast moving consumer goods - mostly supermarket items are sourced in or via UK supply chains. I've yet to see significant movement by Irish retailers to mitigate that exposure. For example, you'd think maybe the likes of Dunnes or SuperValu would have a contingency like a deal with one or more French or Benelux outfits to replace all of those goods very quickly if necessary.

Tesco and Aldi/Lidl have huge continental presence, so I don't think you'll see much issue there.

There'll be some scope for Irish companies to fill domestic gaps too. For example, UK dairy products, processed foods and so on will become a lot easier to compete against.

There's a few billion of market share at stake there for both Irish and continental suppliers to fill.

It makes more sense for Ireland to source things in our own currency anyway - so buying from the eurozone makes a lot more sense for price stability and so on.

Leroy42

I do think our government (ROI) need to start being open about the real possibility of a hard brexit and what plans they are putting in place to reduce the risks and/or effects.

What are government departments doing? What about the HSE, does it have exposure? What about our fuel and energy sources?

Maybe I haven't been paying attention, ut I certainly haven't seen much in the way of preparations. I assumed that the Govt were working on the basis of a deal and as such, whilst planning is happening, it is being kept behind the scenes.

EdgeCase

There have been some preparations and there have been industry briefings for some sectors like food and so on. Also the likes of Bord Bia have been working extremely hard to brexit proof things. I've seen a lot of evidence of this.

I'm just concerned that if things like grocery supply chains are left to sort out their own contingencies, we could end up with serious problems in the event of a big bang brexit where things suddenly become very expensive or run short.

You can't just assume that the market will take care of it. It could end up a total mess for several months.

There should be state supported and EU supported contingencies in place by January if there's still a likelihood of a crash out brexit.

At the very least at this stage, the state needs to be engaging with all parties in all the essential suppliers and retailers to discuss what can be done.

We should have some kind of Brexit mitigation forum in place at this stage. I'm just concerned there's a lot of just in time systems that aren't ready and are assuming somehow it will be business as usual.

You can be damn sure the UK has no plans and any they do have we don't feature in.

Professor Moriarty

Could get very nasty in the Commons today at about 6.00. Up to 23 Tories could vote for Stephen Hammond's (Tory) amendment forcing a Custom's Union if no deal has been reached by January next year. Labour (apart from a few rebels) and those Lib Dems that bother turning up will vote for it. Serious squeaky bum time for May and what's left of her government.

An Ciarraioch

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Could get very nasty in the Commons today at about 6.00. Up to 23 Tories could vote for Stephen Hammond's (Tory) amendment forcing a Custom's Union if no deal has been reached by January next year. Labour (apart from a few rebels) and those Lib Dems that bother turning up will vote for it. Serious squeaky bum time for May and what's left of her government.

If it's actually tabled, that is:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1019248900996247553

On the other hand:

https://mobile.twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1019251700354437120

Professor Moriarty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

If it's actually tabled, that is:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1019248900996247553

Yes, more 180 degree swings from May in the pipeline. If she gives sufficient assurances to the Tory Remainers to cause them to withdraw the amendment then the ERG will go ballistic. We are witnessing the death rattle of May's government.

devnull

Talk now that the Lib Dems didn't get all of their people out to vote yesterday, at least Tim Farron and Vince Cable were not there and apparently another un-named one too, if they were there then the government wouldn't have won the votes they did last night.

Pretty unbelievable to take the Lib Dems seriously when they campaign against Brexit but don't turn up to vote.

Result of that at 12.30am for me.. Might watch it.

VinLieger

Leroy42 wrote: »

I do think our government (ROI) need to start being open about the real possibility of a hard brexit and what plans they are putting in place to reduce the risks and/or effects.

What are government departments doing? What about the HSE, does it have exposure? What about our fuel and energy sources?

Maybe I haven't been paying attention, ut I certainly haven't seen much in the way of preparations. I assumed that the Govt were working on the basis of a deal and as such, whilst planning is happening, it is being kept behind the scenes.

Theyve actually been doing quite a lot especially compared to the UK government who have literally done nothing. They are removing all our oil reserves that is currently being stored in the UK and sending to EU countries. They are hiring 500 for customs and veterinary checks in airports and ports. I think a bunch more is actually being announced tomorrow as well.

Leroy42

VinLieger wrote: »

Theyve actually been doing quite a lot especially compared to the UK government who have literally done nothing. They are removing all our oil reserves that is currently being stored in the UK and sending to EU countries. They are hiring 500 for customs and veterinary checks in airports and ports. I think a bunch more is actually being announced tomorrow as well.

Ok, thanks. That is good to know.

judeboy101

Big vote at 6pm, remainers claim they have the numbers.

devnull

judeboy101 wrote: »

Big vote at 6pm, remainers claim they have the numbers.

Be curious if the Government try and water down the numbers by a minor concession ahead of it like we have seen happen in the past.

cantwbr1

judeboy101 wrote: »

Big vote at 6pm, remainers claim they have the numbers.

Could this be the start of the break up of the Conservative party

Leroy42

cantwbr1 wrote: »

Could this be the start of the break up of the Conservative party

Doubt it, they will cave like they have done throughout.

Party first.

VinLieger

Question is the customs union amendment being voted on today compatible with the ERG garbage that got passed yesterday and other amendments they have put forward?

Gerry T

EdgeCase wrote: »

One thing I'm a bit concerned about is Irish supply chains that are plugged into the UK due to historical proximity. An awful lot of companies see UK & Ireland as a single market and I would be very concerned that we would just end up paying some ridiculous price hikes on good and services, rather than the supply chains rerouting.

There are also some minor technical barriers to trade here on things like electrical appliances due to the very minor issue of a different plug, which would lump us (and Malta and Cyprus) into an offshoot of the UK market for white goods, electronics and so on, even though it's just a very minor technicality. It might be a logical move to phase in the latest and saftest version of thr more globally normal CEE 7 plug & socket system that is standard across almost all of Europe and also places like South Korea etc. It's being phased in in Italy, Denmark and Spain and Greece transitioned to it too without any issues. I don't really see why we couldn't too. Any technicalities with ring circuits (which aren't as commonly used here anyway as the UK) can be overcome with locally fused sockets for retrofits.

Also 70+% of out fast moving consumer goods - mostly supermarket items are sourced in or via UK supply chains. I've yet to see significant movement by Irish retailers to mitigate that exposure. For example, you'd think maybe the likes of Dunnes or SuperValu would have a contingency like a deal with one or more French or Benelux outfits to replace all of those goods very quickly if necessary.

Tesco and Aldi/Lidl have huge continental presence, so I don't think you'll see much issue there.

There'll be some scope for Irish companies to fill domestic gaps too. For example, UK dairy products, processed foods and so on will become a lot easier to compete against.

There's a few billion of market share at stake there for both Irish and continental suppliers to fill.

It makes more sense for Ireland to source things in our own currency anyway - so buying from the eurozone makes a lot more sense for price stability and so on.

A friend of mine would have sourced a lot of material from the UK as that's where agents sat. The past 2 yrs he's transitioned to dealing direct or into a EU based agent. Considering he turns over about €200m a yr that's not insignificant. He says most of his competitors have done the same.

First Up

Everyone knows the divisions in the Tory party are irreconcilable.

Let them fight among themselves; wake me up when someone wins.

VinLieger

Gerry T wrote: »

A friend of mine would have sourced a lot of material from the UK as that's where agents sat. The past 2 yrs he's transitioned to dealing direct or into a EU based agent. Considering he turns over about €200m a yr that's not insignificant. He says most of his competitors have done the same.

Thats good to hear people being sensible.



The problem the UK have is similar to the one the US has with the tariffs, people are gonna find someone else to do business with and when the tariffs are removed in the next presidency or brexit doesnt happen what reason will they have to return to the old way of doing business if the new one works perfectly well?