Brexit discussion thread IV

Spanish Eyes

VinLieger wrote: »

It wouldn't be easy at all, Japan choosing to implement exactly the same rules for a market 10% the size of the EU would never happen, its simply not how international trade deals work

Why though? Is it precluded under some international agreement or something? I just don't know. Several communications to me today suggested this could happen, and I did not have an answer really!

Don't forget UK will not be EU anymore and will not have the same rules and regs as EU. So I was a bit stumped I will admit.

Unless there was a clause in the EU agreement to not have the same deal with any country outside EU or something. Doubt that.

Thanks for your reply, and my apologies if I didn't express the point correctly, but I think you know what I mean.

joeysoap

The 7 Shiners would have made a difference.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1019306987497181185

Mean while as Rome burns. Some play the fiddle

ArmaniJeanss

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Would be easy to do though wouldn't it? Lots of Japanese car manufacturers in the UK would love it. Easy enough to just tack it on to the UK post Brexit.

I'm looking for an argument against it happening!

Lets say Japan was thrilled to get XYZ from the deal and the EU was mainly delighted with ABC in the deal.

And Japan might be quite happy with XYZ in a deal with the UK.
But lots of the ABC may be of little use to the UK, if it includes stuff about say Greek cheese, red wines, olives. So straight away the UK need ABC changed as otherwise they are 'losers' in the deal, so let the negotiations start.

Spanish Eyes

Apologies for side tracking re Japan/EU.

Thanks for replies.

Let's repeat one more time.

There is no such thing as a soft/non-hard border without both Single Market and Customs' Union membership.

Of the two, Single Market membership, through EU or EEA/EFTA does far more of the heavy lifting with regards to removing border checks.

There is no evidence of any borders anywhere in the world that would be soft enough to be considered anything but a hard border other than between Single Market participants.

Theresa May's decision to interpret the referendum vote as she has practically guarantees a hard border. The amendments of recent days are making this clear. Either UK moves towards the EEA/EFTA option, and remain economically linked with the EU, or else they sever it. Are we leading towards that second option?

VinLieger

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Why though? Is it precluded under some international agreement or something? I just don't know. Several communications to me today suggested this could happen, and I did not have an answer really!

Don't forget UK will not be EU anymore and will not have the same rules and regs as EU. So I was a bit stumped I will admit.

Unless there was a clause in the EU agreement to not have the same deal with any country outside EU or something. Doubt that.

Thanks for your reply, and my apologies if I didn't express the point correctly, but I think you know what I mean.

Have a watch of this to understand why the relative size of both markets is important

Nody

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Why though? Is it precluded under some international agreement or something? I just don't know. Several communications to me today suggested this could happen, and I did not have an answer really!

Nothing would stop them from doing it per say but the question would be why? Japan has restrictions, tariffs and quotas to protect domestic producers and for example how much cheese would be included was a big sticking point in the negotiation with EU. Now why would they turn around and offer the same access to UK when they already have pissed off part of their domestic farmers with the EU deal by giving UK (a market not even 10% in size by comparison) the same access?

An Ciarraioch

One final piece of drama tonight, seems The Times (London) have a poll at 10. Usually YouGov, so this was their last one:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1017159049366966272

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1017330183752298496

Lemming

VinLieger wrote: »

How does the CTA benefit us really in a hard brexit scenario? They arent gonna suddenly want to holiday here instead of Spain just because its easier to travel to.

It benefits those of us living in the UK, or those looking for work (or to study) in the UK. We are automatically afforded the same rights as a native the second we step off the plane/boat (or train/bus/car regards NI). The CTA isn't all about "D'Brits".

ambro25 wrote: »

.
But FWIW, if you’re looking to still stay, and with reference to our discussion some time ago, my old UK firm is losing another attorney by August (my ex-trainee, done good on his professional quals this year and moving on up locally) and is recruiting. They’re likely to struggle finding someone as well, not only because it’s Sheffield,

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think there are a few Irish expats living in the UK posting here and am wondering what they're thinking is on the subject.

Not 100% sure what I'm looking for. Thanks for the very kind offer though. I love Sheffield. Cracking city and it's mad they can't find staff.

First bit last, to add to Ambro's comments, Sheffield is an awesome city; quite green with a lot of rivers, so reminds me a lot of Dublin, only a lot more hills. Strange for a place that conjures up images of Dickensian workhouses and factories (its anything but). Cost of living is a lot cheaper too.


.... which gives me pause for thought. I couldn't afford a house back home the way things are at the moment, so I'm left mulling my options. So to ask what I think on matters of leaving, it's in my head ever constantly as I watch what's going on. I'm not quite of the earning power to be able to just go "up sticks and **** this" without taking considerable pain in doing so, but neither am I on an average industrial wage. I would say that if you can get out pain free or relatively, just do it. If I was still renting, I'd have said ****s to it all and gone already (and beaten Ambro to it :pac: )

Apologies for the delay in replying, but this is me back at a PC since being hospitalised on Friday evening. As a casual note, not may EU citizens that I saw on the ward, but those staff members I did see or deal with were all junior or senior staff nurses (ie. above rank and file nurses).

trellheim

So .... slow down for a second and lets get away from the screaming asylum ... whats' next here ?

I see Raab and Barnier are due to meet on Thursday. I'm struggling to come up with lines that aren't movies

Pick :
1. Now we will discuss the location of the rebel base
2. I expect you to die, Mr Bond
3. What're yez up to, lads ?

ancapailldorcha

Lemming wrote: »

First bit last, to add to Ambro's comments, Sheffield is an awesome city; quite green with a lot of rivers, so reminds me a lot of Dublin, only a lot more hills. Strange for a place that conjures up images of Dickensian workhouses and factories (its anything but). Cost of living is a lot cheaper too.


.... which gives me pause for thought. I couldn't afford a house back home the way things are at the moment, so I'm left mulling my options. So to ask what I think on matters of leaving, it's in my head ever constantly as I watch what's going on. I'm not quite of the earning power to be able to just go "up sticks and **** this" without taking considerable pain in doing so, but neither am I on an average industrial wage. I would say that if you can get out pain free or relatively, just do it. If I was still renting, I'd have said ****s to it all and gone already (and beaten Ambro to it :pac: )

Apologies for the delay in replying, but this is me back at a PC since being hospitalised on Friday evening. As a casual note, not may EU citizens that I saw on the ward, but those staff members I did see or deal with were all junior or senior staff nurses (ie. above rank and file nurses).

Been a few times. Lovely, green city. And affordable which is more than can be said for Dublin. Sorry to hear that you've not been well.

Utterly dismayed by the vote result tonight. I'm hoping that some sort of CETA-type deal can be struck with enough similarities to the EEA that it can get past the Brexiteers and the ERG.

ambro25

Sorry to learn that, I hope you're on the mend mate

Leonard Hofstadter

Used to live in Sheffield, have nothing but good things to say about the place, and the locals were very friendly and easy to get on with as well.

Miss it a lot, and it's lovely to go back and visit, but especially in light of today's developments, I am so glad to be out of the UK now and back in the comfort of an EU country.

Frankly at this stage, I think if anyone can get out of the UK, they should.

Hope you get better soon Lemming.

Capt'n Midnight

Leroy42 wrote: »

And as mentioned already, in technical terms we are very close to the UK in things like plugs, driver side etc. We are not a bog enough market on our own for companies to have two centres so won't this have a knock on effect, both in terms of price and availability, in the ROI market?

EU regs mean that manufacturers MUST offer cars that drive on our side of the road. Malta's got our back too.

Thanks to the deal signed today, Japanese car imports will have the 10% import tariff removed.

If the UK screw the pooch on a trade deal, (or country of origin regulations because of the high % of imported parts) then their exports to the EU will get the 10% WTO tariff instead. Worst case Nissans, Toyotas and Hondas etc. assembled in the UK will cost nearly 20% more in the EU than ones made in a Japanese factory.





EU regs are fudged so that all devices have to work on 220V or 240V nominal 230V.

Pugs and adaptors are cheap. And there are loads of Eurpoean standards.

[RANT]
What we think of as a continental plug , the Italians consider to be a German one and probably used for things like washing machines. And the Belgians and Swiss have something that isn't French or German, mainly because it isn't French or German. Oh and all our sockets are full size ones, on the continent they like lots of little ones and a few big ones.

Technically speaking we have the safest plugs, because of dangers of the ring mains electricity system. And don't get me started on the flaws of the Edison Screw for bulbs. [/RANT]

LeinsterDub

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

One final piece of drama tonight, seems The Times (London) have a poll at 10. Usually YouGov, so this was their last one:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1017159049366966272

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1017330183752298496

More interesting polls will be on Scottish independence and Irish unification

Lemming

Cheers folks; still breathing so it's all good.

trellheim

Thanks to the deal signed today, Japanese car imports will have the 10% import tariff removed.

Cars from land of rising sun drive on our side already ... does that mean gray imports drop the price 10% ooooooooooo

Rhineshark

captainspeed wrote: »

Used to live in Sheffield, have nothing but good things to say about the place, and the locals were very friendly and easy to get on with as well.

Miss it a lot, and it's lovely to go back and visit, but especially in light of today's developments, I am so glad to be out of the UK now and back in the comfort of an EU country.

Frankly at this stage, I think if anyone can get out of the UK, they should.

Hope you get better soon Lemming.

BIB - to think it's come to this. I don't think I could have imagined this in 2014. I left the UK just before all this started and I'm glad I did. But it's such a ..farcical tragedy. I swing between despair and fury regarding what a relatively small number of [unprintables] have done to their country.

Ambro (I think it was ambro) may be right regarding his comment on grieving. I am Irish but I have enough links and roots to/in the UK to care deeply about what happens to it. Maybe the UK never was the place I thought it and I'm mourning the loss of an illusion, I don't know.


But philosophy aside, hope you get better soon too, lemming! Take care of yourself.

Thargor

Will be interesting to compare and contrast the deal that the UK manages to sign with Japan eventually (probably around the year 2035):

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1019193103385874432

Leroy42

Less of the grieving, this is a democratic decision taken by the people of the country, a decision that still seems to garner the majority support.

Whatever happens the UK will still exist (at least for a while) and the vast, vast majority of people will have a quality of life that a large portion of the planet can only dream of.

ITs not like they are going back to the stone-age or something.

Capt'n Midnight

Rhineshark wrote: »

It might be this, but I signed up -somewhere- to the Irish government's Brexit bulletin. Get it by email every fortnight I think it is. I'll figure out where I got it and stick the link in here.

here ya go https://www.dfa.ie/brexit/government-brexit-update/

Government's Brexit page

Old page in case you want to see older preparations.
https://merrionstreet.ie/en/EU-UK/

Enzokk

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

One final piece of drama tonight, seems The Times (London) have a poll at 10. Usually YouGov, so this was their last one:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1017159049366966272

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1017330183752298496

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1019329326557384704


Here seems to be the poll for this week. This is why the Tory Whips were working their socks off and why they "made the mistake" of voting when paired today. They know if there is an election that they will be in opposition.

Well done to those 5 Labour MPs, you have cost your party the chance to take over.

Dyr

trellheim wrote: »

So .... slow down for a second and lets get away from the screaming asylum ... whats' next here ?

I see Raab and Barnier are due to meet on Thursday. I'm struggling to come up with lines that aren't movies

Pick :
1. Now we will discuss the location of the rebel base
2. I expect you to die, Mr Bond
3. What're yez up to, lads ?

So you're the brains in this outfit are ye?

ambro25

Leroy42 wrote: »

Less of the grieving, this is a democratic decision taken by the people of the country, a decision that still seems to garner the majority support.

Whatever happens the UK will still exist (at least for a while) and the vast, vast majority of people will have a quality of life that a large portion of the planet can only dream of.

ITs not like they are going back to the stone-age or something.

All choices available to me duly borne in mind...I gave about 20 years to the UK. Spent more of my living years there on aggregate, than anywhere else, including my home country. And yet, I did not get a say.

All I got instead was the 'oh but we don't mean you', 'it won't concern your likes' and similar, by the bucketload since the referendum, and from people I'd have never expected. The sort of latent psychological segregation eventually brought about by 8 years of 'hostile environment', legitimised as it was by the referendum campaigns and their coverage in mass media. Which I'd never experienced in the previous 17 years.

But you know what? It's not the unfairness that hurts the most: it's the senselessness of the waste. The worst of it, is nothing about me: it's about the fact that this referendum was not a decision. It was an opinion poll. May's government, and then enough MPs, chose to make it a decision. All of this heartache for those caught in the cross-fire, all of this waste and goodwill written off, all of this hardship to come in the UK...it was not decided by the people democratically. It was decided by May and her cabinet, autocratically, before the GE2017. It was avoidable, if politically difficult.

But the epic clusterf*ck it's turned into? The hard no deal Brexit the UK looks set to run through?

Are you really telling us that's what a majority of Leave voters voted for, their 'democratic decision'?

They're not going to the stone age, sure. They're stopping at the Victorian age. Woop-de-f***ing-doo.

briany

Leroy42 wrote: »

Less of the grieving, this is a democratic decision taken by the people of the country, a decision that still seems to garner the majority support.

A slim majority is a majority, but the problem is that a slim majority is one that can be overturned by a slight shift in public opinion, and it's not as if public opinion has never been known to do that.

Whatever happens the UK will still exist (at least for a while) and the vast, vast majority of people will have a quality of life that a large portion of the planet can only dream of.

ITs not like they are going back to the stone-age or something.

If a Brexiteer politician says words to this effect, and the next day they get pelted with eggs, can we say to them, "So what? You got pelted with a few eggs. You'll live. Don't worry about it. You've got a nice house, a cushy salary...."

The problem is that if you follow that whole line of logic, people living in developed countries have the right to complain about very little.

An Ciarraioch

Enzokk wrote: »

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1019329326557384704


Here seems to be the poll for this week. This is why the Tory Whips were working their socks off and why they "made the mistake" of voting when paired today. They know if there is an election that they will be in opposition.

Well done to those 5 Labour MPs, you have cost your party the chance to take over.

Here are the predictions using new boundaries:

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=36&LAB=41&LIB=9&UKIP=7&Green=3&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=%28none%29&boundary=2017nb

And old ones:


http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=36&LAB=41&LIB=9&UKIP=7&Green=3&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=%28none%29&boundary=2017

Imreoir2

https://twitter.com/ConorMcMorrow/status/1019332974167449601

It seems the EU is trying to make the backstop more acceptable to the UK. I doubt they will be able to make it acceptable to the UK without changing it substantivly. Maybe simply threading water from the EU while they wait for May's government to sink or swim?

MayoSalmon

Just read that Sinn Feins 7 seats in Westminster could have passed today's Brexit bill to allow them to stay in the customs union in the event of no deal. The irony of it all is nuts!

flatty

I doubt very much that is true. Why, for one reason alone, would they do anything to help teresa may who has personally grabbed brexit, forged it, and is ramming it through, through her own prism of privilege and bigotry, and who is as mendacious as they come?