Brexit discussion thread IV

devnull

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

No deal Brexit: 2,800,000 fewer jobs £158bn loss per year
Trade agreement Brexit (outside the single market): 1,750,000 fewer jobs £99bn loss per year
Soft Brexit (EEA & single market): 700,000 fewer jobs £39bn loss per year Remain in EU: No impact on jobs No £ loss per year

In the interests of balanced reporting, I have no doubt that these facts will be highlighted for Telegraph/Sun/Mail/Express readers. No doubt at all.

Here, don't allow facts to get in the way of a good session of scapegoating and deflecting the blame to the EU for all of the UK's domestic problems.

Leroy42

I just think that people simply cannot get their head around what an impact like 2.8m jobs lost would be like. Even though they are still feeling the effects (as we all are) of the crash from 2008. surely things can't be as bad as that.

Yeah, they'll be some adjusting, but I still need my marmalade, and the Ex pats still want the Sun newspaper so things will simply continue on. The Eu is the normal, the default. A very significant amount of people don't recall anything else and so to try to comprehend that things will be difficult is very difficult, particularly when a lot of people don't understand what is actually involved in CU or SM and therefore cannot really understand why things would be any different.

Things are not the way they are because of the EU, its just the way things are. Simply replace EU with US and things will be the same.

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

I just think that people simply cannot get their head around what an impact like 2.8m jobs lost would be like. Even though they are still feeling the effects (as we all are) of the crash from 2008. surely things can't be as bad as that.

Yeah, they'll be some adjusting, but I still need my marmalade, and the Ex pats still want the Sun newspaper so things will simply continue on. The Eu is the normal, the default. A very significant amount of people don't recall anything else and so to try to comprehend that things will be difficult is very difficult, particularly when a lot of people don't understand what is actually involved in CU or SM and therefore cannot really understand why things would be any different.

Things are not the way they are because of the EU, its just the way things are. Simply replace EU with US and things will be the same.

I disagree. Things would be exponentially worse.

VinLieger

Leroy42 wrote: »

Things are not the way they are because of the EU, its just the way things are. Simply replace EU with US and things will be the same.

Except their marmalade will be made for half the price, using god knows what ingredients and still claim its from britain but actually be from the US

kunst nugget

Leroy42 wrote: »

I just think that people simply cannot get their head around what an impact like 2.8m jobs lost would be like. Even though they are still feeling the effects (as we all are) of the crash from 2008. surely things can't be as bad as that.

I think it's more of the Michael Gove 'Britons have had enough of experts' mindset. They don't really care about doomsday predictions anymore and have stopped listening.

Leroy42

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I disagree. Things would be exponentially worse.

You mistook my post, for which I accept is my fault.

I was trying to articulate why people seemingly do not seem to comprehend that dangers facing them. They cannot understand it.

I recall a meeting with my then boss years ago, where I was saying that people were not taking the threats the company faced seriously. I said that people can't see the train coming towards them.

He replied that of course they can't see the train, they don't even know they are standing on train tracks. I think this is the same.

judeboy101

Leroy42 wrote: »

So Bit Cynical, on which of the 4 pillars should the EU give in to reach a deal, and what implications do you think that will have in terms of competition between the UK and the EU?

That's like picking which of your 4 kids would you sacrifice just so one of your friends stays at the party. So long as the brits have the ability to devalue and so long as their army/navy/air force is the best by a long shot in Europe, they will do grand in the medium to long term.

Nody

judeboy101 wrote: »

That's like picking which of your 4 kids would you sacrifice just so one of your friends stays at the party. So long as the brits have the ability to devalue and so long as their army/navy/air force is the best by a long shot in Europe, they will do grand in the medium to long term.

You are aware that France actually has a better military force including nukes they can fire without US permission, right?

Professor Moriarty

judeboy101 wrote: »

That's like picking which of your 4 kids would you sacrifice just so one of your friends stays at the party. So long as the brits have the ability to devalue and so long as their army/navy/air force is the best by a long shot in Europe, they will do grand in the medium to long term.

Could you define 'grand', 'medium' and 'long term'?

VinLieger

judeboy101 wrote: »

That's like picking which of your 4 kids would you sacrifice just so one of your friends stays at the party. So long as the brits have the ability to devalue and so long as their army/navy/air force is the best by a long shot in Europe, they will do grand in the medium to long term.

Their navy is in serious need of investment according to their Admiralty but the tories are actually cutting spending, the days of the two power standard are long gone.

Also what does their military prowess have to do with their economic viability or ability to negotiate trade deals? Are you suggesting they threaten military action if they arent given good trade deals??

judeboy101

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Could you define 'grand', 'medium' and 'long term'?

Grand=same or better than they currently are
Medium=5-10yrs
Long=10+

Leonard Hofstadter

The pound has lost 1.3 cent against the euro in the last 48 hours, hardly a sign of confidence about the current prospects for the UK (inflation was also below expectations this morning, and it lost half a cent alone today). That's a fairly large loss in such a short space of time.

About this time on Monday morning 1 GBP was worth about 1.134 EUR, right now 1 GBP is worth 1.121 EUR.

Bear in mind that 1 GBP was worth about 1.32 EUR the day before Brexit, and in November 2015 1 GBP got to 1.44072 EUR.

So all in all, the pound has lost nearly 30 cent against the euro over the past 2-3 years, but even compared to the day before Brexit, it's still lost almost 20 cent.

Back in the mid 2000s Sterling regularly went over €1.50, it's still not as low as the near parity it reached in 2009, but the trend could hardly be described as positive.

seamus

Leroy42 wrote: »

I just think that people simply cannot get their head around what an impact like 2.8m jobs lost would be like. Even though they are still feeling the effects (as we all are) of the crash from 2008. surely things can't be as bad as that.

It's also worth pointing out that 2.8m lost jobs is 8.2% of the employed workforce.

This would put the UK unemployment rate at 12.5%.

For comparison, the worst unemployment rate in the UK in recent history was 11.9% in early 1984.

Before that, the last time it was above 12% was during the Great Depression and through WW2 (though those figures are less reliable).

For the UK, that's an insane loss of jobs. Which obviously will mostly hit the areas which voted Leave.

VinLieger

judeboy101 wrote: »

Grand=same or better than they currently are
Medium=5-10yrs
Long=10+

So you disagree with the UK's own department on exiting the EU's analysis?

After 5 years where they will have lost potentially upwards of 3 million jobs and a yearly minus of 158 billion they will be in the same state or possibly better than they currently are......

Do you have any factual basis for this or is it just a completely unfounded opinion?

kowtow

An interesting reflection on the bifurcation of standards between the UK and Ireland which will likely happen post-Brexit, indeed is already happening today. Whilst the UK may be pressurized to lower standards in future, it would be wrong of us to assume that the traffic there is all in one direction.

Post Brexit The UK is likely - subject to the white paper - to finally achieve it's intention of making the live export of animals for slaughter overseas illegal. This has been on the cards for a good few years now, but British courts have been unable to ban the practice as it is an EU competence.

Whereas in Ireland - where the pressure to find markets for our animals was always acute, and is only becoming greater with Brexit - we loaded a thousand or more bulls on the hoof yesterday for the voyage to Libya. There are many here, including many of us in the farming community, who regard this as a very regrettable turn of events.

Leroy42

But haven't the Uk already said that they have no intention of changing regulations, that is the whole basis for the common rule book.

Imreoir2

Leroy42 wrote: »

But haven't the Uk already said that they have no intention of changing regulations, that is the whole basis for the common rule book.

Until the realise they really cant do any kind of usefull trade deal unless they change their regs, and the UK economy is suffering significantly without those trade deals.

devnull

May has just been asked by one of her backbenchers now at which point did Brexit mean Remain.

Could be quite a sign of things to come in PMQs.

Corbyn's first question was about vote leave and May hit back at him for attacking members of the house and should withdraw accusations about those who are involved in Vote Leave.

Innocent until proven guilty in a court of law according to TM, who asked him to withdraw his remarks.

lawred2

judeboy101 wrote: »

That's like picking which of your 4 kids would you sacrifice just so one of your friends stays at the party. So long as the brits have the ability to devalue and so long as their army/navy/air force is the best by a long shot in Europe, they will do grand in the medium to long term.

That's not always a good thing... Never mind the impacts on savings, pensions, wealth, capital flight etc etc

But on an every day basis - everything gets more expensive. The UK's balance of trade is negative.

I'd add that it's very Little Englander to predicate their nation's future well-being on it's military might.

lawred2

devnull wrote: »

May has just been asked by one of her backbenchers now at which point did Brexit mean Remain.

Could be quite a sign of things to come in PMQs.

Corbyn's first question was about vote leave and May hit back at him for attacking members of the house and should withdraw accusations about those who are involved in Vote Leave.

Innocent until proven guilty in a court of law according to TM, who asked him to withdraw his remarks.

Which bit of this amended white paper points to Remain?

An Ciarraioch

Oh dear, Paisley's trip to Sri Lanka could mean a by-election in North Antrim!

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-44869627

EdgeCase

May's just reiterating her opposition to the UK being part of the customs union.

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1019370128830582784

devnull

EdgeCase wrote: »

May's just reiterating her opposition to the UK being part of the customs union.

It's a bit strange what is going on, it's like Jacob Rees-Mogg is talking in Theresa May's voice.

TM avoiding questions on the Brexit Secretary beliefs about human rights and social justice, twice now gone completely off-topic.

lawred2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1019370128830582784

quite the mood swing

will need a few more of these and maybe we might see some sense of urgency or coming to senses from Labour and moderate Conservatives..

Hard to argue that this is the will of the nation if repeated polls show otherwise.

Water John

How many times can Ian Paisley Jnr be bought?

EdgeCase

kowtow wrote: »

An interesting reflection on the bifurcation of standards between the UK and Ireland which will likely happen post-Brexit, indeed is already happening today. Whilst the UK may be pressurized to lower standards in future, it would be wrong of us to assume that the traffic there is all in one direction.

Post Brexit The UK is likely - subject to the white paper - to finally achieve it's intention of making the live export of animals for slaughter overseas illegal. This has been on the cards for a good few years now, but British courts have been unable to ban the practice as it is an EU competence.

Whereas in Ireland - where the pressure to find markets for our animals was always acute, and is only becoming greater with Brexit - we loaded a thousand or more bulls on the hoof yesterday for the voyage to Libya. There are many here, including many of us in the farming community, who regard this as a very regrettable turn of events.

Actually, on some of those animal rights issues, the UK has been very strong at EU level and could have influenced change on a pan EU basis.

Irish farmers have huge lobbying power here because of a much less urbanised population than the UK and we have been relatively foot dragging on animal rights relative to Britian.

That's one UK voice I'll be sad to see lost at EU level.

Got I hate listening to May. She just passes off every bump as if it were all part of the plan.

EdgeCase

Deleted User wrote: »

Got I hate listening to May. She just passes off every bump as if it were all part of the plan.

She basically just spins, deflects, spins, attacks Corbyn, attacks Labour for alleged antisemitism, mentions "the will of the people" several times ... rinse and repeat.

It’s not that different from Trump’s approach, just colder and spoken with a more polished accent.

Leroy42

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1019370128830582784

Stats not my thing, but am I right in my reading that basically all those that would like a leave with a deal, if no deal is available would opt for no deal leaving?

A deal looks increasingly unlikely and as such the UK is still pretty much split down the middle on which way to go.

But nearly half are ok with crashing out