Brexit discussion thread IV

Imreoir2

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1019339412583403520


White paper translated into various EU languages . Irish not one of them nor is Swedish. Dutch and German translations called a joke

The perfidious DUP stricks again.

Zubeneschamali

Bambi wrote: »

There's no panic lol

A customs border would obviously be a setback for Ireland North and South, but it would not be critical for the South, just a costly and unnecessary nuisance.

It can't last long in any case.

Professor Moriarty

Imreoir2 wrote: »

To be fair, it is possible to argue that the worst of the Israli actions in some way resemble the German occupation of some Western European countries during the war, but Israel has not done anything that comes anywhere near to the brutaity that the Nazis exhibited in the east or inflicted on the Jewish community in Europe.

To make a Nazi comparrison, I think, is unjust, and given the history, probably comes from a place of anti-semitisim.

I think I will leave it at that, I don't want to derail the thread.

Which Labour MPs have made that comparison?

Nody

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1019597658720292864


As so the end game begins. Hard border next.

They think they need 700 people? Holland and Belgium has recruited close to 1000 custom agents each due to Brexit...

mickmac76

If the UK crashes out without a deal how badly will the economies of Ireland and the UK be hit relative to the financial crisis in 2008? Will the economies be hit harder in terms of unemployment and governments having to borrow more? And could a hard brexit lead to another financial crisis or has enough been done since then to strengthen our banking system.

Infini

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

A customs border would obviously be a setback for Ireland North and South, but it would not be critical for the South, just a costly and unnecessary nuisance.

It can't last long in any case.

If anything if the UK is in no doubt it's going to crash out hard and they make a hams of it they should be liable for any costs through tarriffs in causing this situation and should be hammered hard if it causes civil war up there. If a UI is the only solution a border poll should be held on the grounds that NI did not adk for this, headbangers were allowed to cause this and people should be given the option to walk away.

Zubeneschamali

mickmac76 wrote: »

If the UK crashes out without a deal how badly will the economies of Ireland and the UK be hit relative to the financial crisis in 2008?

Government estimates were Ireland - 0.5%, much less than 2008/9, UK 6%, worse then 2008/9.

Both of these now look low to me as a crashout gets more likely, they might be twice that for UK, three times for Ireland.

Worse, but still not enough to push into a recession with the UK.

Brexit has cost the UK perhaps 2% before it even happens.

An Ciarraioch

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1019597658720292864


As so the end game begins. Hard border next.

The plans will be published whenever the Cabinet meeting ends, so should be online around 7 at the latest.

Imreoir2

mickmac76 wrote: »

If the UK crashes out without a deal how badly will the economies of Ireland and the UK be hit relative to the financial crisis in 2008? Will the economies be hit harder in terms of unemployment and governments having to borrow more? And could a hard brexit lead to another financial crisis or has enough been done since then to strengthen our banking system.

It depends on the Brexit, though my understanding is that the worst no-deal outcome would be drasticly worse for the UK than the 2008 crash, knocking up to 8% off GDP and seeing millions of job losses. The hardship in the UK would have a knock on effect here, though I believe that it is not expected to be even similar to the 2008 crash for us.

Infini

mickmac76 wrote: »

If the UK crashes out without a deal how badly will the economies of Ireland and the UK be hit relative to the financial crisis in 2008? Will the economies be hit harder in terms of unemployment and governments having to borrow more? And could a hard brexit lead to another financial crisis or has enough been done since then to strengthen our banking system.

I'd say given the difficulties caused by the UK being not of our own making we could see if the EU could help out with investment and helping us build new infrastructure to get around the UK cutting off our land routes to the continent, like upgrading the rosslare dublin line and europort as one way of getting stuff between us and france.

An Ciarraioch

Leroy42 wrote: »

More fantasy stuff from Boris.

Is he really claiming that Ireland should have just sat on our hands whilst the UK fecked about with the GFA and the economy on the island? Of course we made it political, since we are so small economically we needed another angle.

The likes of JRM have stated in the past that we should simply side with the UK because of our relative size. So it was the right way to do things.

But even if we remove his point, the failure lies with the Brexiteers who simply never came up with a solution to the border issue. Clearly they never even thought of it before the vote, and seemed genuinely surprised that others (ie ROI and EU) have taken it so seriously.

The reason why their 'solutions' were rejected were because they were fantasy. This is the man that claimed that the NI border was akin to travelling between London Boroughs! He simply has no concept of the changes that Brexit demands be made.

What effectively Boris is asking for, is that Brexiteers want control of their borders, but the NI one seems very complicated so can we just stick to EU rules for that one!

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1019601343101767680

Professor Moriarty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The plans will be published whenever the Cabinet meeting ends, so should be online around 7 at the latest.

Apparently, behind the scenes this week and in discussions between the negotiating teams, the EU has torn Britain's latest proposals apart and now believes that a hard Brexit is moving from possible to likely. For their part, the British negotiating team is "despairing" at the EU's intransigence.

trellheim

Boris' resignation statement

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1019586379771203584


Noteworthy mentions 2 1/2 years to do the border but this is wrong IIRC ?

trellheim

the mood music out of brussels is horrible at the moment - look at the dutchmen


e.g https://twitter.com/JDeMeulemeester/status/1019569488734322688



translate: Paul Dalmacio and @peeters_kris1 after consultation with Michel Barnier about real chance of hard #Brexit. "Exceptionally turbulent times. Additional initiatives: By early September impact scan for companies and

hopefully we'll get a presser from Raab/Barnier when it breaks up later on today

Ellian

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Which Labour MPs have made that comparison?

None did as far as I know. Apologies - I should not have side-barred. In my post above, I was making the point that my understanding that Corbyn was trying to re-assess the definition of anti-Semitism because it contained a couple of line items that indicated any comparison between current Israeli policy and those of Nazi Germany would be anti-Semitic. As would any allegation that Israel's foreign policy was in any way racist. However the former head of the Shin Bet said exactly this in the documentary The Gatekeepers and so presumably would be considered anti-Semitic by that definition. So if Corbyn was asking for a re-assesmment of the definition because of that he may have a point. Apologies again - really didn't want to derail thread.

Imreoir2

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Apparently, behind the scenes this week and in discussions between the negotiating teams, the EU has torn Britain's latest proposals apart and now believes that a hard Brexit is moving from possible to likely. For their part, the British negotiating team is "despairing" at the EU's intransigence.

Have you go a source for that?

An Ciarraioch

May appears to be thinking similarly:

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1019594403525136384

Rjd2

The accusations of antisemitism has been aimed at the Labour party for ages and plenty of people who have been lionised here such as David Lammy, Milliband brothers and Chuka have called it out.

Hodge probably should not have swore at Jez, but the fact that the Corbyn white walkers are out in force to destroy a veteran MP who took on the BNP is shameful.


https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1019349749223317504


For what its worth, Chuka who has been the voice of reason Brexit has been hammered constantly by the Corbyn disciples, expect it to step up even more.

An Ciarraioch

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Have you go a source for that?

Grauniad article:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/18/eu-assault-on-mays-white-paper-heightens-no-deal-brexit-fears

Enzokk

Just to add my 2 cents on what would happen should a second referendum be run again. I think that the remain side this time would be better prepared to show people exactly what either option means. We have had countless papers on what Brexit would mean with numbers for people to decide. The myths of extra money for services like the NHS has also been dispelled and the information is now out there about what EU membership means as well regarding EURATOM, EASA and the EMA etc.

So if there is a second referendum and the remain side cannot win with 60% then they have true idiots in charge. There is enough information out there for people to see what it would mean to leave the EU.

kunst nugget

Enzokk wrote: »

Just to add my 2 cents on what would happen should a second referendum be run again. I think that the remain side this time would be better prepared to show people exactly what either option means. We have had countless papers on what Brexit would mean with numbers for people to decide. The myths of extra money for services like the NHS has also been dispelled and the information is now out there about what EU membership means as well regarding EURATOM, EASA and the EMA etc.

So if there is a second referendum and the remain side cannot win with 60% then they have true idiots in charge. There is enough information out there for people to see what it would mean to leave the EU.

What happens if there is a second referendum and they vote to stay in terms of Article 50 already being triggered..

Taytoland

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The plans will be published whenever the Cabinet meeting ends, so should be online around 7 at the latest.

Apparently, behind the scenes this week and in discussions between the negotiating teams, the EU has torn Britain's latest proposals apart and now believes that a hard Brexit is moving from possible to likely. For their part, the British negotiating team is "despairing" at the EU's intransigence.

I have been saying this for ages. Only now are others waking up to what I knew since day dot.

Leroy42

Great speech by Boris. Calling out the PM, and the entire cabinet, for the total failure in the negotiations with the EU.

Whenever he does get the chance to be a member of Government, I expect great things from him.

briany

Enzokk wrote: »

Just to add my 2 cents on what would happen should a second referendum be run again. I think that the remain side this time would be better prepared to show people exactly what either option means. We have had countless papers on what Brexit would mean with numbers for people to decide. The myths of extra money for services like the NHS has also been dispelled and the information is now out there about what EU membership means as well regarding EURATOM, EASA and the EMA etc.

So if there is a second referendum and the remain side cannot win with 60% then they have true idiots in charge. There is enough information out there for people to see what it would mean to leave the EU.

One place where Leave absolutely stomped Remain was in public relations with blue collar/working class voters. Nigel Farage may be a businessman from the City, but he had a way of connecting, even if he was selling snake oil. All Remain seemed to have was lecturing politicians from the established parties, concerned experts, and comedians who somehow had fooled themselves into believing they could go toe-to-toe in late night TV debates.

So, what I'm saying is that Remain can't frame their argument as 'Leave = Apocalypse' and they have to be careful in who is delivering it. For many of those already ensconced in the Leave mentality, it's not even an argument they'll hear, especially by Eddie Izzard in his pink beret. It'll have to be an argument that both attempts to reach across the divide and hear the concerns of the Leavers and offer some sort of solution that isn't just more of the status quo.

And even if it all gets to another vote, which is completely up in the air at this point.

prawnsambo

Leroy42 wrote: »

Great speech by Boris. Calling out the PM, and the entire cabinet, for the total failure in the negotiations with the EU.

Whenever he does get the chance to be a member of Government, I expect great things from him.

Yes. He's extremely brave and outspoken when he doesn't have to do the heavy lifting. :rolleyes:

kunst nugget

briany wrote: »

One place where Leave absolutely stomped Remain was in public relations with blue collar/working class voters. Nigel Farage may be a businessman from the City, but he had a way of connecting, even if he was selling snake oil. All Remain seemed to have was lecturing politicians from the established parties, concerned experts, and comedians who somehow had fooled themselves into believing they could go toe-to-toe in late night TV debates.

So, what I'm saying is that Remain can't frame their argument as 'Leave = Apocalypse' and they have to be careful in who is delivering it. For many of those already ensconced in the Leave mentality, it's not even an argument they'll hear, especially by Eddie Izzard in his pink beret. It'll have to be an argument that both attempts to reach across the divide and hear the concerns of the Leavers and offer some sort of solution that isn't just more of the status quo.

And even if it all gets to another vote, which is completely up in the air at this point.

I wonder will we still hear that wonderful 'Germany needs us more than we need them because of car sales' argument...

Trasna1

lawred2 wrote: »

why is it our government that is expected to face a fight with the WTO?

Essentially they are saying they will have a fight with WTO since it is not politically possible to erect a physical border on the border.

That article is nonsense. The government are contingency planning for a full customs border.

kunst nugget

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yes. He's extremely brave and outspoken when he doesn't have to do the heavy lifting. :rolleyes:

It's why you'll never see any of those people before profit fúckers actually getting involved in government. Much handier to just shout shíte from the sidelines.

BonnieSituation

Leroy42 wrote: »

Great speech by Boris. Calling out the PM, and the entire cabinet, for the total failure in the negotiations with the EU.

Whenever he does get the chance to be a member of Government, I expect great things from him.

For a moment there...

BonnieSituation

kunst nugget wrote: »

It's why you'll never see any of those people before profit fúckers actually getting involved in government. Much handier to just shout shíte from the sidelines.

Let's not forget that PBP advocated for us leaving the EU and campaigned for Brexit in the north.