Brexit discussion thread IV

kunst nugget

zell12 wrote: »

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5969841/May-visits-Irish-border-Dublin-threatens-BLOCK-planes-flying-UK.html

Bloody hell, the comments under that article. It's amazing how quickly they make my sympathy evaporate.

EdgeCase

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

According to the website, existing qualifications will be recognised. However if you are currently getting a qualification or will be getting one in the future then you would need to check your situation regarding EU recognition.

It could be a huge implication for people doing things like City and Guilds qualifications in Ireland.

Leroy42

I hadn't noticed this before, but this is a snippet of the foreward to the White Paper recently published.

Leaving the EU gives us the opportunity to deliver on that ambition once and for all –strengthening our economy, our communities, our union, our democracy, and our place in the world, while maintaining a close friendship and strong partnership with our European neighbours.

Basically saying that the EU has been holding the UK back all this time, bad for the economy, communities, democracy.

One trusts that they removed this from the actual white paper sent over to the EU. Not exactly a way to start a negotiation by telling the other side they are sh1t and you can't wait until you can finally get away from them and start to live again!

ambro25

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

According to the website, existing qualifications will be recognised. However if you are currently getting a qualification or will be getting one in the future then you would need to check your situation regarding EU recognition.

Grandfathering is never that straightforward and, I strongly suspect, will be highly dependent on the national and professional context in which the recognition is sought. A context which, in each EU27 and the U.K., can still be heavily influenced by local corporatism, notwithstanding harmonisation and Directives over the years (and likely will become more so in ‘UK vs EU27’ situations post-Brexit).

TLDR: assumption is the mother of all FUps as ever, so if your living hinges on the issue, do your due diligence and always take (or go get) the one in the hand, rather than the two in the bush.

lawred2

kunst nugget wrote: »

Bloody hell, the comments under that article. It's amazing how quickly they make my sympathy evaporate.

Come on - it's Daily Mail readers. There is nothing else to be expected.

devnull

Leroy42 wrote: »

I hadn't noticed this before, but this is a snippet of the foreward to the White Paper recently published.

Basically saying that the EU has been holding the UK back all this time, bad for the economy, communities, democracy.

The first rule of the Tory government if you can find someone else to pin the blame on publicly, do so.

That way they're not blaming the people responsible, the government themselves.

Professor Moriarty

ambro25 wrote: »

Grandfathering is never that straightforward and, I strongly suspect, will be highly dependent on the national and professional context in which the recognition is sought. A context which, in each EU27 and the U.K., can still be heavily influenced by local corporatism, notwithstanding harmonisation and Directives over the years (and likely will become more so in ‘UK vs EU27’ situations post-Brexit).

TLDR: assumption is the mother of all FUps as ever, so if your living hinges on the issue, do your due diligence and always take (or go get) the one in the hand, rather than the two in the bush.

Good advice. I will follow it up. As you say, better safe than sorry.

kunst nugget

lawred2 wrote: »

Come on - it's Daily Mail readers. There is nothing else to be expected.

It's weird, I know that rationally but reading through that just makes me think 'You know what? Fúck you, guys - swing low, sweet chariot, all the way back to the Stone Age.'

Nody

devnull wrote: »

Honestly the comments in that article might even be worse than the article itself, I had a look at some of them and they were patronising, naive and people who have no idea of what is actually going on and completely ignorant.

That's a little insight into the minds of the Brexiteers that the likes of the Daily Mail and the Daily Express has been breeding over the last number of years, they're spoon fed the fake news and lap it up.

But also add comedy value such as:

How dare Ireland hold us to ransoms. I belive it is now time to unite Ireland and let them self govern that is what should have happened years ago.

I was under the impression that the EU and the UK were supposed to be in Negotiations and NOT oneside Demanding this Paddy is just Confused the EU is 27 other Countries and not just one Tinpot little Country.

Its going to make Dublin to Paris very expensive if planes have to fly around UK airspace. This is just more scaremongering by the remain camp who are not going to get the decision reversed.

Here we go, more threats from Germany/Ireland, suppose they did support them in the world wars against GB.

Anita Blow

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

According to the website, existing qualifications will be recognised. However if you are currently getting a qualification or will be getting one in the future then you would need to check your situation regarding EU recognition.

The wording is slightly ambiguous, but my understanding is that decisions on recognising qualifications made before the exit date will be unaffected, rather than just qualifications from before the exit date. IE- You still will have to apply to have your UK qualification recognised before the exit date.
Otherwise it wouldn't make sense for the document to be advising people to get their qualifications recognised before the UK exits the EU.

trellheim

Be careful re qualifications : from the EU doc linked above :

EU-27 nationals holding UK professional qualifications obtained before the
withdrawal date should consult the relevant national authorities to assess whether it
is advisable to obtain, before the withdrawal date, the recognition of those UK
professional qualifications in an EU-27 Member State.

Happening right now with professional pilots licenses that a lot of CAA (UK) issued licenses are being transferred to IAA ( Irish) ones ... IAA apparently making a tidy profit at 600 quid a go.

so if you have a prof qual watch out. Please be aware there is NO transition arrangement currently ; UK is out 1 April 2019.

seamus

kunst nugget wrote: »

Bloody hell, the comments under that article. It's amazing how quickly they make my sympathy evaporate.

Sorry, I don't want this to become a discussion on Daily Mail comments, but the below actually made me laugh out loud. Sums up comically the ignorance about NI.

devnull

There's a fair bit of talk now of a second Tory MP who was asked to ignore the pairing arrangements and to vote for the government in the votes earlier in the week.

Apparently they refused to do so and after the vote the whips called them up and asked them why they didn't vote.

Meanwhile Andrea Leadsom continues to deny anything happened of the sort.

EdgeCase

kunst nugget wrote: »

Bloody hell, the comments under that article. It's amazing how quickly they make my sympathy evaporate.

This is the problem with the UK media now. *ANY* comment, no matter how logical or innocuous that is pointing out any massive holes in their plans for a glorious no-deal Brexit, will be turned into a 'attack' or a 'threat'.

The Irish Government would probably be better to just ignore them and deal entirely with the diplomatic corps and high level discussions only. Any kind of public statement is just like throwing petrol on a fire. Don't expect any kind of logical response from the commentary over there.

A no-deal Brexit is a complete mess. They need a deal of some sort and they need clarity to begin to negotiate one properly. You can't just keep going around and around in some kind of weird cycle of rhetoric and hot air.

devnull

EdgeCase wrote: »

This is the problem with the UK media now. *ANY* comment, no matter how logical or innocuous that is pointing out any massive holes in their plans for a glorious no-deal Brexit, will be turned into a 'attack' or a 'threat'.

The other phrases that come to mind are
"Talking the country down."
"Not believing in ourselves."
"Allowing the dream to die."
"Bitter Remoaner."

On the other hand any flaw about the other sides is correct, because it's in the paper after all.

lawred2

Here we go, more threats from Germany/Ireland, suppose they did support them in the world wars against GB.

the preoccupation that some people have with wars is so unhealthy and unhelpful

Topgear on Dave

lawred2 wrote: »

the preoccupation that some people have with wars is so unhealthy and unhelpful

Well it was the traditional way for the empire to negotiate their trade deals. :pac:

How they got Hong Kong, Singapore etc etc

briany

devnull wrote: »

The other phrases that come to mind are

"Bitter Remoaner."

I don't recommend that anyone reads the comments of a Youtube Brexit video 'cause they could cause a nosebleed, but for a laugh I said to this one Brexiteer on Youtube, who was giving it all that, "Don't you hate how all these bitter REMOANERS throw petty names at us?".

He vehemently agreed and did not see the irony of my statement.

ambro25

Anita Blow wrote: »

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

According to the website, existing qualifications will be recognised. However if you are currently getting a qualification or will be getting one in the future then you would need to check your situation regarding EU recognition.

The wording is slightly ambiguous, but my understanding is that decisions on recognising qualifications made before the exit date will be unaffected, rather than just qualifications from before the exit date. IE- You still will have to apply to have your UK qualification recognised before the exit date.
Otherwise it wouldn't make sense for the document to be advising people to get their qualifications recognised before the UK exits the EU.

Good post and point there, much clearer than my earlier prose

These decisions (to recognise) are taken by national bodies, professional and/or public, under national law (transposing/compliant with EU Directives, but with their own quirks, tweaks and procedures: the domestic letter vs the EU spirit).

In context (and already posted a few times in these Brexit threads as a real-life example & consequence), entry and maintenance on the register of European professional representatives at the EUIPO in Alicante, is contingent on both recognition of EEA-acquired professional legal qualification and EEA-based domiciliation: under this dual test, the past decision to recognise a U.K. professional trademark qualification does not save a U.K.-based European professional representative if the U.K. exits the EEA as a result of Brexit (ie does not keep them on the EUIPO register and able to represent clients at the EUIPO: they might still have their qual recognised, but they’d fail the domiciliation test), unless that's negotiated as part of the withdrawal agreement, and the EU Trademark and the EU Design Directives are suitably amended to add a British exception (eg a grandfathering clause for all U.K. reps on the register up to end March 2019). Imperatively before March 2019.

The obvious take-away is, as with all thing Brexit: the devil is in the details, and your mileage may vary. So if you’re (potentially) affected, check and double-check.

flatty

I'm fully expecting a hard brexit here. Despite being fully in the firing line, I vehemently feel the EU should not bend on anything, and let the UK crash out.

EdgeCase

I'm predicting a hard brexit followed by a financial crash and a panicked negotiation.

kunst nugget

EdgeCase wrote: »

I'm predicting a hard brexit followed by a financial crash and a panicked negotiation.

I predict a hard Brexit, a financial crash and buyout of the entire country by disaster capitalists and then maybe some negotiation when they want to get some return on their bargains.

BonnieSituation

My GF is currently in the process of selling her house in Manchester and we are getting down to the wire with a local buyer. Please god the sale closes ASAP. It's been a long road to get to this point.

My big fear is something off the charts stupid causes the potential buyer or their potential buyer to get scared.

fash

Leroy42 wrote: »

I hadn't noticed this before, but this is a snippet of the foreward to the White Paper recently published.

Leaving the EU gives us the opportunity to deliver on that ambition once and for all –strengthening our economy, our communities, our union, our democracy, and our place in the world, while maintaining a close friendship and strong partnership with our European neighbours.

Basically saying that the EU has been holding the UK back all this time, bad for the economy, communities, democracy.

Yes, same as the Teresa May Lancaster speech: the reason the UK has inequality is due solely to the evil Europeans and when the UK is free, a tolerant wealthy utopia where all are equal will happen pretty much straight away.

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1019890805861945344

https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1019890019820081153

Professor Moriarty

So, why are Leavers so gung ho? Well, here's the Daily Mail's explanation of what a hard Brexit would look like:


MONEY
Leaving without a deal would mean an immediate Brexit on March 29 after tearing up a 21-month transition agreement. This included giving £39billion to the EU, which ministers would no longer have to pay, a House of Lords report claims.

GOODS TRADE
The Chequers agreement effectively proposed keeping Britain in the single market for goods and agriculture to preserve 'frictionless' trade and protect the economy.

Customs checks on cross-Channel freight would cause havoc at ports, hitting food supplies and other goods.

Even Brexiteers admit to a big economic impact in the short term. Britain could waive customs checks on EU produce to free up backlogs, but would Brussels do the same?

TARIFFS
All EU-UK trade in goods is free of tariffs in the single market.

Trade would revert to World Trade Organisation rules. The EU would charge import tariffs averaging 2-3 per cent on goods, but up to 60 per cent for some agricultural produce, damaging UK exporters.

We have a trade deficit with the EU of £71billion – they sell us more than we sell them – so the EU overall would lose out.

German cars and French agriculture would be worst hit, as would UK regions with large export industries. Tariffs could also mean price inflation. But UK trade with the EU is 13 per cent of GDP and falling compared to non-EU trade, which generates a surplus and is likely to grow. The outlook would be boosted by Britain's ability to strike trade deals.

IMMIGRATION
The UK would immediately have control over its borders and freedom to set migration policy on all EU migrants.

UK nationals would likely lose their right to live and work in the EU. There would be legal uncertainty for the 1.3million Britons living in the EU and the 3.7million EU nationals here.

CITY OF LONDON
Many firms have already made contingency plans for no deal, but there would probably be a significant degree of disruption and an economic hit.

Ministers would be likely to take an axe to tax and regulations to preserve the UK's economic advantage.

AEROPLANES
Fears of planes not being able to fly appear far-fetched – unless the EU is determined to destroy both business and tourism. Rules to keep planes in the air are likely to be agreed. The EU has many deals with non-EU countries as part of its Open Skies regime.

EUROPEAN COURTS
Britain would be free from the edicts of the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg and all EU laws. Parliament would be sovereign.

FARMING & FISHING
THE UK would quit the Common Agricultural Policy, which gives farmers and landowners £3billion in subsidies. Ministers would come under pressure to continue a form of subsidy.

NORTHERN IRELAND
Northern Ireland would be outside the EU, with no arrangements on how to manage 300 crossing points on the 310-mile border.

The EU would want Ireland to impose customs and other checks to protect the bloc's border – something it has said it will not do. No deal could blow a hole in the Good Friday Agreement, with pressure on all sides to find a compromise.


On balance, all is good. Britain just needs to leave and after smoothing a few ripples there will be a glorious future. This line "Ministers would be likely to take an axe to tax and regulations to preserve the UK's economic advantage." might seem a little fishy but never mind that. Look at Johnny Foreigner over there. Tally ho.

devnull

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

"Ministers would be likely to take an axe to tax and regulations to preserve the UK's economic advantage."

Translation: There will be a bonfire of workers rights.

Professor Moriarty

devnull wrote: »

Translation: There will be a bonfire of workers rights.

Exactly.

ambro25

BonnieSituation wrote: »

My GF is currently in the process of selling her house in Manchester and we are getting down to the wire with a local buyer. Please god the sale closes ASAP. It's been a long road to get to this point.

My big fear is something off the charts stupid causes the potential buyer or their potential buyer to get scared.

Feeling for you, there.

We were sale agreed for our UK house since late January, but the sale didn’t complete and money didn’t change hands until late May due to chain on buyer’s side (we had to leave U.K. mid-February).

Then it took bloody days & weeks to sort out expatriation of £ proceeds (form-based as well), and days longer still to sort out F/X into € and a local investment vessel after all the KYC and AML hoops...All along I’m checking the €/£ rate, this thread and the news, and sweating cobs!

Not relevant if you are (and staying, and/or buying/reinvesting) in the U.K., but if you’re not, I’d try and get the £ proceeds PDQ in case the £ takes another 20% (or more) in the teeth...or Corbyn gets in and has McDonnell slap capital controls on early.

Infini

With the way things are going atm the pound will only keep going downwards as time whittles down. The EU side doesn't want to rattle things possibly since they want to buy as much time as possible for anyone to get out now before the stampede but make no mistake, short of a 2nd referendum on the whole debacle one it's clear No Deal becomes an absolute, things will take off very quickly with a run on the pound certain. Things over there might get very nasty should the exchange rate exceed 95p-parity.