Brexit discussion thread IV

Nody

Leroy42 wrote: »

Surely the talks must be suspended at this stage. They allowed Phase 1 to move to Phase 2 on the basis of the December agreement, and it appears that May is about to blow that agreement out of the water. So at the very least we must return to Phase 1.

Why suspend the talks? All you're doing is giving UK an excuse to blame the EU for walking away. All that EU needs to do is sit down at the table and say no to their proposal and outline exactly how many red lines and unicorns they have pulled in it. No excuse for UK to complain about walking away; no excuse to later claim "Oh but it was suppose to be 2 years of negotiation and you suspended that so we should really be allowed to stay longer" etc.

I know that being pragmatic is the right approach, but sometimes you simply need to accept that the other side really have no intention of negotiating in any meaningful way and cut your losses.

You cut your losses the smart way though by not invoking a penalty clause and sitting out the time while telling your members to prepare for the worst; exactly as EU has already done.

At this stage, I wouldn't value any deal that would be agreed to anyway. Even if TM manages to deliver it, the chance of it lasting any length of time is almost zero.

Agreed and same feelings exist in Brussels as seen by the leaked comments.

Maybe its time for the EU to go for the nuclear option. Take the gloves off and let the markets and industry realise that hard brexit is a real probability. As said in other posts, it would appear that that is the only chance left to get the UK to see some sense (although I have my doubts it would work)

There is no nuclear option; there's only EU sitting out the time whistling. They have already told the countries to prepare for the worst; industry groups around Europe has told their members to prepare for the worst. If the "market" still has not gotten the message nothing will anyway and UK will still crash out as I predicted several months ago due to incompetence rather than a wish to do so. The fact Brexiteers are actively talking about the crash out (and how any pain from it is EU punishing UK for wanting to go their own way) shows that they are well aware of what's coming and preparing for it (their own way).

Dyr

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Well, this will do wonders for cross-Border relations!

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

If history teaches us anything it's that an English government will throw Paddy under the bus whenever its in Englands interest to do so

Emmet, Tone et al up in heaven going "What did we tell yiz lads? Break the connection or it'll break you"

The big question is Brussels willing to throw Paddy under the bus if it's in their interests to do so, and we got the answer to that back around 2008, so all that's left is to ask whether it's in Brussels interest to stand by us on this.

Interesting oul time

devnull

allthedoyles wrote: »

Reminder it was only 51.9% voted leave.
The others need to have their say too.
I can't see UK crashing out simply to suit a majority of 1.9%.

At the end of the day TM will do whatever Arlene and Jacob tell her. She's looking really foolish for calling an election now as that simply meant that she just had another person who had her over a barrel in addition to those in her own party.

However you have to say that the best supporting role award to Jacob Rees Mogg should go to Jeremy Corbyn, who has to go down as one of the most ineffectual opposition leaders in history, since he seems to be missing for about 95% of the time.

McGiver

Nody wrote: »

All that EU needs to do is sit down at the table and say no to their proposal and outline exactly how many red lines and unicorns they have pulled in it.

Exactly:
No
No
No
No
No
Do you suggest anything else? No?
Then good luck and God save the queen.

Dyr

Nody wrote: »

The fact Brexiteers are actively talking about the crash out (and how any pain from it is EU punishing UK for wanting to go their own way) shows that they are well aware of what's coming and preparing for it (their own way).

Have a feeling that the Brexiteers and their backers are betting against themselves and stand to make some serious dosh if the UK goes full retard. These guys don't ignore the bottom line.

Sierra Oscar

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Well, this will do wonders for cross-Border relations!

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

So the backstop is dead. This is huge news.

I guess it was always going to come down to this. UK Government essentially using the threat of a hard border to blackmail Ireland into getting the EU negotiation team to back down.

The UK Government cannot be trusted.

This is not going to end well for anyone.

devnull

Details of May's Speech here now the embargo has been passed.
https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-says-mps-have-shown-they-will-reject-eus-irish-border-backstop-plan-11442805

Most of it's already covered but essentially also saying that the votes this week made the original proposals unworkable.

devnull

Leadsom now also accusing the EU of forcing a no deal Brexit (same link)

"It needs to be quite clear to the EU, 'you've got to come to the table and start negotiating with serious focus and concentration and goodwill because otherwise, we will be leaving with no deal'."

Gotta laugh haven't you at the irony.

Spanish Eyes

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

So the backstop is dead. This is huge news.

I guess it was always going to come down to this. UK Government essentially using the threat of a hard border to blackmail Ireland into getting the EU negotiation team to back down.

The UK Government cannot be trusted.

This is not going to end well for anyone.

Whatever happened to this Jolian guy who was to take a case in Dublin re Brexit. Haven't heard anything since. All mouth and no trousers maybe.

Strazdas

allthedoyles wrote: »

Reminder it was only 51.9% voted leave.
The others need to have their say too.
I can't see UK crashing out simply to suit a majority of 1.9%.

Arguably a 'crashing out' would be in breach of the entire referendum result. Never once was the possibility discussed in the referendum campaign of the UK crashing out of the EU with no deal at all and on hostile terms with the union. There may not be a mandate for this in fact.

Infini

Bambi wrote: »

If history teaches us anything it's that an English government will throw Paddy under the bus whenever its in Englands interest to do so

Emmet, Tone et al up in heaven going "What did we tell yiz lads? Break the connection or it'll break you"

The big question is Brussels willing to throw Paddy under the bus if it's in their interests to do so, and we got the answer to that back around 2008, so all that's left is to ask whether it's in Brussels interest to stand by us on this.

Interesting oul time

To be fair though back then they didnt have the situation that is caused by not listening to people, ie. Populist governments. They're not going to do something like that again because it comes back to bite them in the long run like Italy for example and they know it now.

As for right now they wont throw Ireland under the bus they know full well it's in their interest's to so everything they can to support us against the stupidity that's the british political system.

Enzokk

devnull wrote: »

Leadsom now also accusing the EU of forcing a no deal Brexit (same link)


Gotta laugh haven't you at the irony.

Arlene Foster was saying something similar as well. Basically their position seems to be that it is up to the EU to meet them in the middle. The fact that the starting position of the UK is not workable and thus the middle is not either seems to have gone past them.

Here is a link to a NPR program on the links between Russia and Trump...and Brexit. Nothing to see here for too many though.

Reporter Shows The Links Between The Men Behind Brexit And The Trump Campaign

Nody

devnull wrote: »

Leadsom now also accusing the EU of forcing a no deal Brexit (same link)


Gotta laugh haven't you at the irony.

Honestly it reminds me exactly of the Blazing Saddles moment...

Spanish Eyes

devnull wrote: »

Leadsom now also accusing the EU of forcing a no deal Brexit (same link)


Gotta laugh haven't you at the irony.

As I said earlier, that is what they will do.

We can see it, but I reckon lots in UK are in a different mode entirely. We are two different countries after all.

The lack of distinct analysis re this is amazing. Take what we say or shut up. The EU are bullies, we can do what we like re votes and pairings in Parliament.

EU should just stay quiet and let them at it.

badtoro

Strazdas wrote: »

Arguably a 'crashing out' would be in breach of the entire referendum result. Never once was the possibility discussed in the referendum campaign of the UK crashing out of the EU with no deal at all and on hostile terms with the union. There may not be a mandate for this in fact.

Genuine question, how do you figure it'll breach the referendum result? I might be missing or forgetting something but did they not just vote to "leave the European Union" on the ballot? Wouldn't a crash out satisfy that, in the Brexit means Brexit vein?

FrancieBrady

Strazdas wrote: »

Arguably a 'crashing out' would be in breach of the entire referendum result. Never once was the possibility discussed in the referendum campaign of the UK crashing out of the EU with no deal at all and on hostile terms with the union. There may not be a mandate for this in fact.

How is anybody outside the Tories going to stop a crash out at this stage?

Imreoir2

mayo.mick wrote: »

After reading this, I'm just after realising that I've 7 websites which are hosted in London. Wonder what impact its going to have on this?

Depending on the nature of the sites, possible quite significant given that the UK will have crashed out of GDPR. If you have clients data, it might not be considered safe if it is hosted in the UK. I am not sure if there is a serious issue here for you, but you might want to look into it.

Headshot

The British Government are just so on trust worthy. How can the EU really believe anything they say

McGiver

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Well, this will do wonders for cross-Border relations!
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

The UK Government cannot be trusted.

Been always the case. But their current post-imperial delusion certainly doesn't improve the situation.

Sierra Oscar

The EU negotiation team should suspend all talks at this stage.

The negotiations only proceeded on the basis that the backstop was agreed between the UK and EU. The UK Government is now saying they never agreed to it. What a farce.

The hard Brexiteers want to kick the can down the road until it is too late to reach an agreement. They know it is their only way of achieving a hard Brexit.

Strazdas

badtoro wrote: »

Genuine question, how do you figure it'll breach the referendum result? I might be missing or forgetting something but did they not just vote to "leave the European Union" on the ballot? Wouldn't a crash out satisfy that, in the Brexit means Brexit vein?

I'm assuming that the vote to leave was intended to be done in a very orderly fashion and strictly by the book ie. the UK triggers A50, spends two years preparing the exit, signs off on an amicable deal with the EU etc. At no point was it said by Cameron or anyone else that the UK would be crashing out of everything with not even a deal in place and on hostile terms with the EU. Is that what the public voted for when they put their X on the ballot paper?

devnull

Don't worry, they're already getting their revenge and punishment stories ready in the press

https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1020058456194154496

Just as dishonest as the politicians they support.

Headshot

Good old sun, the beacon of knowledge and insight......

An Ciarraioch

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The EU negotiation team should suspend all talks at this stage.

The negotiations only proceeded on the basis that the backstop was agreed between the UK and EU. The UK Government is now saying they never agreed to it. What a farce.

The hard Brexiteers want to kick the can down the road until it is too late to reach an agreement. They know it is their only way of achieving a hard Brexit.

The Tánaiste, after tonight's development:

https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1020063853260963840

Spanish Eyes

devnull wrote: »

Don't worry, they're already getting their revenge and punishment stories ready in the press

https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1020058456194154496

Just as dishonest as the politicians they support.

Sadly the Sun readers will just accept what they are told. And other MSM are not without fault either.

The BBC for example have been very bad in their reporting of this critical issue for the populace. But they perhaps know where their funding is coming from.

That is why I am opposed to a TV license here too. Too much ass licking to vested interests going on for fear it might be revoked.

Imreoir2

Leroy42 wrote: »

Surely the talks must be suspended at this stage. They allowed Phase 1 to move to Phase 2 on the basis of the December agreement, and it appears that May is about to blow that agreement out of the water. So at the very least we must return to Phase 1.

I know that being pragmatic is the right approach, but sometimes you simply need to accept that the other side really have no intention of negotiating in any meaningful way and cut your losses.

At this stage, I wouldn't value any deal that would be agreed to anyway. Even if TM manages to deliver it, the chance of it lasting any length of time is almost zero.

Maybe its time for the EU to go for the nuclear option. Take the gloves off and let the markets and industry realise that hard brexit is a real probability. As said in other posts, it would appear that that is the only chance left to get the UK to see some sense (although I have my doubts it would work)

I agree, and have said as much myself. But I think the way the EU seem to want to play this might actually be better. Say very little other than to remind everyone that the EU position remains the same and drip feed warnings of a no-deal Brexit. That way the pressure just builds and builds on the UK.

Suspending talks now, while justified, would be mana from heaven for Mogg and his ilk, they could then easily blame the collapse in talks on the EU. The UK has much more to lose here than the EU does. Let them be in the spotlight. Let them come up with a solution, or crash. There will be plenty of time to pick up the peices if they do fall off the cliff.

Sierra Oscar

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The Tánaiste, after tonight's development:

https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1020063853260963840

Another comment by Coveney now too.

https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1020071289409744896

McGiver

My colleague, who never talks politics, summed the Brexit situation perfectly: "You can't negotiate with a fog". Absolutely loved it

Btw where's Raab gone? Going to negotiate finally or doing a Brussels pub crawl?

And Mr Fox has spoken, trying to play a hardball. Right, so if I understand it correctly he threatens that if the EU don't fold the EU will lose $250 billion (according to the IMF) while the UK will lose $282 billion. Smart, he's just forgotten the EU are 27 but UK is 1. A small detail.

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/the-ball-is-in-your-court-liam-fox-bizarrely-threatens-eu-with-no-deal-brexit-1-5612621

badtoro

Strazdas wrote: »

I'm assuming that the vote to leave was intended to be done in a very orderly fashion and strictly by the book ie. the UK triggers A50, spends two years preparing the exit, signs off on an amicable deal with the EU etc. At no point was it said by Cameron or anyone else that the UK would be crashing out of everything with not even a deal in place and on hostile terms with the EU. Is that what the public voted for when they put their X on the ballot paper?

Thing is, any image I've seen of the ballot gives only 2 options, stay an EU member, or leave the EU. As I say I might be missing something else but if that is all they voted on then Brexit could really mean Brexit.

trellheim

Barnier can only go with whats in front of him. So far its a white paper thats already messed up and its not negotiating guidelines either