Brexit discussion thread IV

Anthracite

Leroy42 wrote: »

If Leo etc are called out for pointing out the realities can you imagine the freak out if the government was defeated due to votes from SF?

Let them freak. Their pivot into anti-democracy would be quite interesting to watch, having beaten everyone over the head with the 'will of the people' thought-terminating cliché for the past 2 years.

Christy42

Mancomb Seepgood wrote: »

In order to take their seats in Westminster,Sinn Fein would have to start making the case to their own people and probably hold a special Ard Fheis to pass it.There would be a good chance of some sort of split if the history of republicanism is anything to go by.By which point there would probably have been a general election and any members from Northern Ireland would again be completely irrelevant in terms of the Westminster arithmetic,as they usually are.

I'm no Sinn Fein supporter but they would be mad to attempt this.

Both sides of the split would still vote Sinn Fein.

Sinn Fein do not get votes because they don't take their seats. They get votes because they are seen as the opposite of the DUP (similar to how the DUP get votes really).

Having said that this is on the English parties though the duo is definitely not helping. Sinn Fein are irrelevant in these discussions really.

swampgas

Leroy42 wrote: »

UK wants Brexit, it wants it so much that it prepared to renege directly on one agreement (which it is clear now was only 'agreed to' in order to get what it wanted) but is willing to put jeopardy a 20 year agreement that has brought peace to the very union they profess to love.

Theresa May sems to be the personification of the Tory party, and maybe the UK as a whole. I was about to say that anyone else with the tiniest hint of self-respect or integrity would have resigned already, but the two contenders to succeed her, Boris and Rees-Mogg, are just as unprincipled and mendacious.

IMO even Jeremy Corbyn is complicit, as he won't state his own position on the EU honestly, instead ducking and diving while he hopes the Tory party self-destructs, and he is refusing to hold the government to account.

Is this the new normal, the new British post-truth politics?

Even if Brexit is averted (which I very much doubt) the reputational damage already done to the UK is staggering, and will not be undone easily.

The British state has shown itself on the world stage to be unreliable, untrustworthy, unprincipled, dishonest, disrespectful, rude, insulting, boorish, incompetent, arrogant and lazy, to an extent that is really quite amazing.

They have alienated many of their erstwhile EU allies and don't seem to care.

It seems hard to avoid the conclusion that the UK is rapidly becoming a failed state.

lawred2

swampgas wrote: »

Theresa May sems to be the personification of the Tory party, and maybe the UK as a whole. I was about to say that anyone else with the tiniest hint of self-respect or integrity would have resigned already, but the two contenders to succeed her, Boris and Rees-Mogg, are just as unprincipled and mendacious.

IMO even Jeremy Corbyn is complicit, as he won't state his own position on the EU honestly, instead ducking and diving while he hopes the Tory party self-destructs, and he is refusing to hold the government to account.

Is this the new normal, the new British post-truth politics?

Even if Brexit is averted (which I very much doubt) the reputational damage already done to the UK is staggering, and will not be undone easily.

The British state has shown itself on the world stage to be unreliable, untrustworthy, unprincipled, dishonest, disrespectful, rude, insulting, boorish, incompetent, arrogant and lazy, to an extent that is really quite amazing.

They have alienated many of their erstwhile EU allies and don't seem to care.

It seems hard to avoid the conclusion that the UK is rapidly becoming a failed state.

I was thinking about this earlier.

All these trade deals that Britain sees in its post Brexit future - who in their right mind would want to deal with them as they are behaving right now?

They are proving themselves at best dimwitted and incompetent and at worst disrespectful, unreliable, dishonest and deceitful.

Compare that to the free trade negotiations that the EU undertakes with other nations. Entered into with mutual respect and with a clear and largely unchanging set of requirements communicated calmly and clearly by professionals.

The exact opposite of the UK.

No country will want to be eager to enter into such negotiations with those whose requirements could freely change from day to day.

Although in a perverse way I for one would love to see trade talks between the US and the UK. Between Trump and that shower in Westminster it would turn into some sh!tshow.

J Mysterio

swampgas wrote: »

Theresa May sems to be the personification of the Tory party, and maybe the UK as a whole. I was about to say that anyone else with the tiniest hint of self-respect or integrity would have resigned already, but the two contenders to succeed her, Boris and Rees-Mogg, are just as unprincipled and mendacious.

IMO even Jeremy Corbyn is complicit, as he won't state his own position on the EU honestly, instead ducking and diving while he hopes the Tory party self-destructs, and he is refusing to hold the government to account.

Is this the new normal, the new British post-truth politics?

Even if Brexit is averted (which I very much doubt) the reputational damage already done to the UK is staggering, and will not be undone easily.

The British state has shown itself on the world stage to be unreliable, untrustworthy, unprincipled, dishonest, disrespectful, rude, insulting, boorish, incompetent, arrogant and lazy, to an extent that is really quite amazing.

They have alienated many of their erstwhile EU allies and don't seem to care.

It seems hard to avoid the conclusion that the UK is rapidly becoming a failed state.

Couldnt agree more.

Enzokk

I understand the realities of Sinn Fein and taking their seats in Westminster. They would not have been able to just take it for this vote. But it is clear that 7 votes would have made a difference to the outcome if you look at the numbers alone. Would never happen though.

The blame for the lost votes fall squarely on Labour. They had the votes but lost 4 or 5 of their own MPs. They were lambasting Anna Soubry for her voting record of speaking against the government position but then voting for it. The idiotic thing is that they could have done with her in their party, talking against their position but then voting for it.

swampgas wrote: »

IMO even Jeremy Corbyn is complicit, as he won't state his own position on the EU honestly, instead ducking and diving while he hopes the Tory party self-destructs, and he is refusing to hold the government to account.

He has stated his position. It's all sunshine and roses but seeing as he is not negotiating with the EU there is no-one that could show him the realities of what he wants. Why would Barnier be spending time negotiating with Labour on their position? So he wants to end FOM, leave the customs union because in reality that is what people voted for. He wants a comprehensive trade deal that will negate the need for a border. This is the Theresa May position but without red lines.

Leo Varadkar’s talk about there being no RoI/NI border checks not shared by Brussels according to this Irish Times article. I can’t honestly see how we would avoid border controls if a no deal Brexit occurs as an external EU frontier will be created. Is Leo afraid of adverse domestic opinion over this issue?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/taoiseach-s-confidence-of-no-border-controls-not-shared-in-brussels-1.3570514?mode=amp

badtoro

Think the failed state description is OTT, however the behavioural description is spot on. They are dealing in bad faith, publicly.

axer

Enzokk wrote: »

I understand the realities of Sinn Fein and taking their seats in Westminster. They would not have been able to just take it for this vote. But it is clear that 7 votes would have made a difference to the outcome if you look at the numbers alone. Would never happen though.

Maybe after the fact but if Sinn Fein showed up the difference in the number of votes would not be just 5 or 6 or whatever. You would have a lot less torys rebelling. That's why its pointless even discussing it and the people that are using it to bash Sinn Fein are those looking for any stick to bash them.

Anyone know what time May's speech is on today?

Leroy42

Deleted User wrote: »

Leo Varadkar’s talk about there being no RoI/NI border checks not shared by Brussels according to this Irish Times article. I can’t honestly see how we would avoid border controls if a no deal Brexit occurs as an external EU frontier will be created. Is Leo afraid of adverse domestic opinion over this issue?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/taoiseach-s-confidence-of-no-border-controls-not-shared-in-brussels-1.3570514?mode=amp

I feel for Leo on this. I think the government has played this about as well as they could. They made NI a central issue, they got the EU on board, they got the agreement from TM in December.

Now, even at the time I could see this was a fudge and I felt it was a get out given to the UK too easily, but I accept that it was probably the best solution at the time.

Let us not forget that the deal that TM is reneging on is the compromise deal that was negotiated after the original deal she agreed to was stopped by the DUP.

Based on that, and on the not unreasonable position that the UK would stand by their agreement, Leo really had little other options but to let it play out.

I hold the fault for this squarely on the feet of the UK. We can argue all day about what Leo could have/should have done, but in reality TM has shown that regardless of anything we, or the EU would have done, she is simply too weak and too enthralled to Brexit to have made any difference. The only difference that could have been made is timing.

Leonard Hofstadter

Deleted User wrote: »

Is Leo afraid of adverse domestic opinion over this issue?

Quite possibly yes. I thought it was a very strange comment for him to make even if Juncker said this to him in private.

If there's no deal then all bets have to be off and there will have to be a border.

I don't see why he should have to pay a political price considering that Britain twice agreed to something they now want to pull out of, I don't know what he and Coveney could have done differently.

We can't prevent Britain from crashing out with no deal if that is what they want to do (why they would want to do it God only knows but they seem fairly hell bent on doing so nonetheless) and destroying their reputation abroad with all those countries they want to do these trade deals with.

LeinsterDub

Deleted User wrote: »

Leo Varadkar’s talk about there being no RoI/NI border checks not shared by Brussels according to this Irish Times article. I can’t honestly see how we would avoid border controls if a no deal Brexit occurs as an external EU frontier will be created. Is Leo afraid of adverse domestic opinion over this issue?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/taoiseach-s-confidence-of-no-border-controls-not-shared-in-brussels-1.3570514?mode=amp

We can avoid border controls if the EU agree to ignore the WTO and kick the can down the road

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

An interesting article on WTO border rules:

https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/07/18/does-the-wto-require-countries-to-control-their-borders/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

listermint

We are all talking about a Government here, whos members of it are actively engaged with Russian people of immense means and wealth. Running companies and acting as advisors to organisations with vast amounts of Russian Money, Where Russian itself has for years and is currently actively pursuing a campaign of misinformation and misdirection via Forums, Social Media , comment sections on articles on an hourly basis on the UK population.

And the government is literally disinterested.

A foreign power engaged in active mind games against its popuplation

And it doesn't care, one bit.

The Similarities between the Tory Party and Donald Trump are not isolated and they are so parallel to seem bizarre in normal circumstances.

War is afoot and not the traditional ones we all know and avoid, Its full blown Cyber information war on a scale never before deployed.

ArmaniJeanss

backspin. wrote: »

Similar article in the dailymail about Leo 'threatening' to stop UK planes. 5000 comments so far and majority of them ripping into Ireland and the Irish.

Fascinating the difference in the comments sections when Tusk or Juncker say something that the Mail/Express people don't like as opposed to when Leo says something.
They don't get stereotypically derogatory towards the entire population of Luxembourg, or suggest threatening their military power against Poland. I understand it's partly that Leo is the serving PM whereas the other two are exPMs with different roles now, but there does seem to be a healthy dashing of anti-Irish racism in there.

J Mysterio

LeinsterDub wrote: »

We can avoid border controls if the EU agree to ignore the WTO and kick the can down the road

That won't/ can't happen.

LeinsterDub

J Mysterio wrote: »

That won't/ can't happen.

Can't and won't are two completely different things . It can happen it's entirely possible however it most likely won't happen.

Leroy42

I just don't understand what TM is playing at. Why give the speech today? She has just sent over the white paper (amended WP at this stage) lost two ministers and yet just as the EU are saying that they are looking to the negotiations back on track she is literally throwing out the whole thing.

What is the political thinking behind this? She already has the DUP support. Its not even a question of why she is doing it, but more why is she doing it now?

prawnsambo

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Fascinating the difference in the comments sections when Tusk or Juncker say something that the Mail/Express people don't like as opposed to when Leo says something.
They don't get stereotypically derogatory towards the entire population of Luxembourg, or suggest threatening their military power against Poland. I understand it's partly that Leo is the serving PM whereas the other two are exPMs with different roles now, but there does seem to be a healthy dashing of anti-Irish racism in there.

Well they still expect us to tug the forelock when addressing them, so it's not really that surprisiing.

Sierra Oscar

Leroy42 wrote: »

I just don't understand what TM is playing at. Why give the speech today? She has just sent over the white paper (amended WP at this stage) lost two ministers and yet just as the EU are saying that they are looking to the negotiations back on track she is literally throwing out the whole thing.

What is the political thinking behind this? She already has the DUP support. Its not even a question of why she is doing it, but more why is she doing it now?

Keep in mind she is visiting Northern Ireland at the request of the DUP. You can be pretty certain they are putting serious pressure on her to rule out a border at the Irish Sea.

Of course the backdrop to all of this is that the UK Government would more than likely have collapsed this week if it didn't have the support of the DUP.

There cannot be a soft Brexit while the DUP are propping up the UK Government.

I highlighted this on numerous occasions when the backstop was agreed last December. The DUP will never, ever allow special customs arrangements for Northern Ireland. They will not tolerate a fragmentation of the Union. They would rather a hard-Brexit than an arrangement which separates Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK.

There is either a General Election in the UK which removes the DUP from the equation or there is a hard-Brexit. It's as simple as that.

There is a reason the hard-Brexiteers have not taken out Theresa May. They know she is trapped by the DUP and cannot deliver a soft-Brexit.

lawred2

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Fascinating the difference in the comments sections when Tusk or Juncker say something that the Mail/Express people don't like as opposed to when Leo says something.
They don't get stereotypically derogatory towards the entire population of Luxembourg, or suggest threatening their military power against Poland. I understand it's partly that Leo is the serving PM whereas the other two are exPMs with different roles now, but there does seem to be a healthy dashing of anti-Irish racism in there.

all's fair in this brace new modern world - racism is healthy and you're only a precious snowflake if it bothers you

trellheim

The DUP will never, ever allow special customs arrangements for Northern Ireland.

Bear in mind they did allow special arrangements for many years post WW2

Leonard Hofstadter

trellheim wrote: »

Bear in mind they did allow special arrangements for many years post WW2

And continue to have segregated schools, a ban on abortion and a refusal to recognise equal marriage. They've no problem being different to the rest of the UK when it suits them.

Sierra Oscar

trellheim wrote: »

Bear in mind they did allow special arrangements for many years post WW2

The UUP were in power, the DUP weren't formed until 1971.

The UUP of old would probably have been far more pragmatic in today's situation - i.e. they would recognise that special arrangements for Northern Ireland are needed.

The DUP are extremists and unfortunately they have brought unionism with them to the extremes.

judeboy101

A by election can be triggered by 4000 signatures in north Antrim due to paisley suspension. He has a large majority but it fluctuates from 18k to 28k, if the other parties agreed on a compromise uup candidate who was pro eu the might squeeze him out. They could make it a "vote on brexit" in the unionist heartland.

Imreoir2

judeboy101 wrote: »

A by election can be triggered by 4000 signatures in north Antrim due to paisley suspension. He has a large majority but it fluctuates from 18k to 28k, if the other parties agreed on a compromise uup candidate who was pro eu the might squeeze him out. They could make it a "vote on brexit" in the unionist heartland.

They wont, the tribal politics are far to important for any such compromise.

murphaph

judeboy101 wrote: »

A by election can be triggered by 4000 signatures in north Antrim due to paisley suspension. He has a large majority but it fluctuates from 18k to 28k, if the other parties agreed on a compromise uup candidate who was pro eu the might squeeze him out. They could make it a "vote on brexit" in the unionist heartland.

The problem is that north Antrim is as far from the border as it gets in NI and many voters would actually be pro Brexit, possibly the majority but I am not in a position to check right now.

trellheim

They've no problem being different to the rest of the UK when it suits them.

Barnier knows this.

FrancieBrady

murphaph wrote: »

The problem is that north Antrim is as far from the border as it gets in NI and many voters would actually be pro Brexit, possibly the majority but I am not in a position to check right now.

If there was more to come about Ian's behaviour it might swing voters away.
I wonder if push came to shove would he actually stand again.

trellheim

Listening to May's speech is not encouraging.

swampgas

badtoro wrote: »

Think the failed state description is OTT, however the behavioural description is spot on. They are dealing in bad faith, publicly.

Agreed. Maybe a failed democracy would be a better description.