Brexit discussion thread IV

Dyr

Leroy42 wrote: »

What the UK is banking on is that ROI will maintain its borders properly and as such the only goods able to travel into NI (and thus into the UK) will at the minimum meet the EU standards and thus be fine for them.

Does the EU have a standard for Mark 10 mortars?

cml387

Leroy42 wrote: »

It totally is an option. There is no requirement within WTO to secure borders, or maintain them or charge tariffs or check anything.

It is in a country's interest to do all these things as otherwise they lose all control. What might trip them up is the selectivity of it. Why would goods travelling to Liverpool be checked but not into the North.

But the UK not saying the external border into the North will be open, only the border with ROI.

What the UK is banking on is that ROI will maintain its borders properly and as such the only goods able to travel into NI (and thus into the UK) will at the minimum meet the EU standards and thus be fine for them.

Yes, we'd have to install the checks, for revenue protection.
I'm old enough to remember the butter smugglers, because butter was cheaper in Northern Ireland. To protect our farmers we'd have to restrict agricultural imports.

Enzokk

I may have this wrong but the summary of the press conference seems to be that there are questions that the white paper needs to clear up. The white paper is not a negotiation position for these talks, but there are positive aspects to it that can be used.

The EU still stands by Ireland. The backstop needs to be agreed, it has to be legally sound. Theresa May agreed to this in a letter to Donald Tusk in March and the EU is taking that as her position and not her recent pronouncements. If there is no legal backstop then there is no way they can move onto the transition where trade talks can start.

Any deal will need to ensure that there is no negative effects to any EU members. There is only 13 weeks left to sort this out, and at the same time they are working on the joint political declaration that will form the basis of the future relationship.

Did I miss anything?

Silent Running

My understanding of WTO rules is that if you allow unrestricted/unchecked trade with one country, you must allow the same for all countries. The Chinese would lap up that cream.

Disclaimer: I could be completely wrong in my understanding.

LeinsterDub

Silent Running wrote: »

My understanding of WTO rules is that if you allow unrestricted/unchecked trade with one country, you must allow the same for all countries. The Chinese would lap up that cream.

Disclaimer: I could be completely wrong in my understanding.

Everyone should read this [url] https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/07/18/does-the-wto-require-countries-to-control-their-borders/[/url]

briany

Tropheus wrote: »

Mogg frequently refers to WTO rules. If he understood the first rule of WTO, he should know that the UK would have to secure its borders. Throwing their borders open isn't an option.

Seems like a glaring hole in the in the rhetoric of a man who's able to answer more or less anything put to him. Has someone not asked him this question?

lawred2

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Everyone should read this https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/...mpression=true

did you mean this?

https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/07/18/does-the-wto-require-countries-to-control-their-borders/

Leroy42

Silent Running wrote: »

My understanding of WTO rules is that if you allow unrestricted/unchecked trade with one country, you must allow the same for all countries. The Chinese would lap up that cream.

Disclaimer: I could be completely wrong in my understanding.

That is true, however, there is the argument that they could use special case pleading based on the GFA to exclude NI (this is a very divided opinion and would have to be tested). But even so, how likely is it that a Chinese (or whatever) company would send products through ROI ports, Travel to NI and then onto the mainland? The Costs would be will over any tariff and the time more than most checks.

As I mentioned, basically the UK are subcontracting the norder issue back to to ROI. JRM is quite right that they will not put up a border.

The issue is more an EU issue. UK is pretty confident that anything in from ROI will be fine (as it currently is) but ROI, and by extension the EU, can have no confidence that the UK will maintain its regime and thus will have to check everything coming from NI.

I agree everyone should have a read of this;

https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/...their-borders/

Nody

Silent Running wrote: »

My understanding of WTO rules is that if you allow unrestricted/unchecked trade with one country, you must allow the same for all countries. The Chinese would lap up that cream.

Disclaimer: I could be completely wrong in my understanding.

You're thinking of the most favoured clause and you are correct as long as it is not done under some form of FTA (allowed for example EU is one FTA area) or national security reasons (allows you to discriminate which is US claim for the steel tolls for example) as a short version.

Nody

Leroy42 wrote: »

That is true, however, there is the argument that they could use special case pleading based on the GFA to exclude NI (this is a very divided opinion and would have to be tested). But even so, how likely is it that a Chinese (or whatever) company would send products through ROI ports, Travel to NI and then onto the mainland? The Costs would be will over any tariff and the time more than most checks.

As I mentioned, basically the UK are subcontracting the norder issue back to to ROI. JRM is quite right that they will not put up a border.

The issue is more an EU issue. UK is pretty confident that anything in from ROI will be fine (as it currently is) but ROI, and by extension the EU, can have no confidence that the UK will maintain its regime and thus will have to check everything coming from NI.

I agree everyone should have a read of this;

https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/...their-borders/

Except it's not because of VAT. The issue is not the goods coming in meeting UK standards (they will) but the fact it will be a zero risk VAT fraud of epic proportions. Driving in ONE truck of legally bought cigarettes without paying any fees for it is worth around half a million GBP purely on what you saved in VAT duties; sell them on with a few quid mark up (but still well below UK vatted) and that will go up well beyond a million quid profit. That is one single truck netting you half a million; now add in booze or anything else with point duties etc. and suddenly you're talking multibillion a month scale of VAT scams going on with zero controls on UK side to stop you flooding the UK main land markets as well as close to risk free as you can get. How long do you think the UK government will accept losing that amount of money by not having controls?

ancapailldorcha

Bambi wrote: »

Does the EU have a standard for Mark 10 mortars?

No more pithy comments please.

Silent Running

That was indeed an interesting read. It doesn't look like it's black and white though. Until it's tested, the situation seems to remain unclear.

Leroy42

Good point Nody. Would we not be charged VAT etc on the shipment coming in?

I know that still leads to a loss for the UK, but it might be that they are banking on it not be enough to bother (in any material way).

McGiver

And in the meantime the Tory delusion goes on. Apparently the White Paper, which doesn't even contain ERG amendments, is the "final offer".

Brexiteer Commons leader Andrea Leadsom also put some pressure on May, saying the EU must be told the Chequers blueprint, which has divided the Conservative Party, is the “final offer” rather than an opening gambit.

Nody

Leroy42 wrote: »

Good point Nody. Would we not be charged VAT etc on the shipment coming in?

I know that still leads to a loss for the UK, but it might be that they are banking on it not be enough to bother (in any material way).

But they can claim the VAT back when exporting it out of of Ireland; UK is then suppose to add the VAT on it but someone "forget" to tell Revenue about it and since there are no border controls...

Leroy42

Nody wrote: »

But they can claim the VAT back when exporting it out of of Ireland; UK is then suppose to add the VAT on it but someone "forget" to tell Revenue about it and since there are no border controls...

But surely exporting would need paperwork, the ROI government can't simply accept it on faith can they?

So export licence to NI, and thus UK simply gets a copy of all requests and charges accordingly.

seamus

McGiver wrote: »

And in the meantime the Tory delusion goes on. Apparently the White Paper, which doesn't even contain ERG amendments, is the "final offer".

You can't make threats while holding the gun to your own head.

Nody

Leroy42 wrote: »

But surely exporting would need paperwork, the ROI government can't simply accept it on faith can they?

So export licence to NI, and thus UK simply gets a copy of all requests and charges accordingly.

Using Switzerland as an example there will be a customs office at the border they would go to with a truck parking lot which leads directly out to the border to the highway without a way to turn back. They file the paperwork, get it stamped etc. and of they go. What happens once it crosses the UK border is of no interest for Ireland; that's up to UK to control as all Ireland cares about is that the goods have been confirmed to leave Irish soil.

Water John

The Tory Party negotiated with itself and expects the EU to accept the results.

Leroy42

Water John wrote: »

The Tory Party negotiated with itself and expects the EU to accept the results.

The Tory Party negotiated with itself and lost.

McGiver

seamus wrote: »

You can't make threats while holding the gun to your own head.

I'll need to update the summary of the current state of Brexit negoatiations then.
"You can't negotiate with a fog that threatens to disperse itself"

I wonder, are these MPs really so thick and arrogant or is that just a drama for their own constituencies?

ancapailldorcha

I came across this today:



Emphasis on "Taking back control is a careful change, not a sudden step - we will negotiate the terms of a new deal before we start any legal process to leave." I don't know how there isn't more anger about this sort of thing. Cummings knew he was promising unicorns and had no qualms about doing so, nor did Johnson and Gove who were senior government figures at the time.

Dyr

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

No more pithy comments please.

Allow me to rephrase so you don't miss the point:

If the UK think that they'll have no need of border controls in NI once they rip up the GFA then they may find, in the medium term, that they were very, very wrong

Leroy42

UK flights ‘will not be able to land in Ireland’ without post-Brexit deal
Irish Aviation Authority confirms that UK carriers will lose rights in hard Brexit

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/uk-flights-will-not-be-able-to-land-in-ireland-without-post-brexit-deal-1.3571311

I assume that the opposite it true, that ROI and EU flights will not be able to land in the UK

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

I assume that the opposite it true, that ROI and EU flights will not be able to land in the UK

Correct, without a deal it'll be volcano time in the UK.

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1020294413405360129

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1020278953993531392

trellheim

Translation of Barnier's presser

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_STATEMENT-18-4626_en.htm

Ladies and gentlemen,

These were some of the questions we discussed yesterday with Dominic Raab.

We will continue this discussion. And we will look constructively at the answers that we will get to our questions.

But our main focus must be the finalisation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

Let me recall that the Withdrawal Agreement is the prerequisite for an orderly withdrawal, for the transition period, and for creating the trust that we need to build a solid partnership for the future.

This requires in particular a legally operative backstop – an "all-weather insurance policy" – to address the issues of Ireland and Northern Ireland. All 27 Member States insist on this.

Why? Because we are committed to protecting Ireland and Northern Ireland against the consequences of Brexit and to preserve the Good Friday Agreement in all its dimensions.

I said this on my last visit to Ireland and Northern Ireland a few weeks ago, where I engaged with stakeholders across both communities.

Let me simply recall the commitment taken by Prime Minister Theresa May to have a backstop in her letter to President Tusk in March. The respect of this commitment is essential.

And I made clear to Dominic Raab yesterday that we are not asking for a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. What we need is checks on goods because the UK wants to leave the Single Market, the Customs Union and our common commercial policy.

We cannot afford to lose time on this issue. And this is why we have invited the UK to work on the backstop next week.

We are open to any solutions as long as they are workable and can be transformed into a legally operative text in time for the Withdrawal Agreement.

*

Ladies and gentlemen,

Even if we want to reach a deal, it is also our responsibility to be prepared for all scenarios, including a "no deal".

As the European Council said, we have to step up preparation at all levels, for all scenarios.

And the Communication adopted by the Commission yesterday should be read in this context.

We are encouraging national administrations and companies to use the time we have, which is very short, to accelerate this preparation.

*

Imreoir2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1020294413405360129

A crowd of teenagers are a more effective opposition than Corbyn!

First Up

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Leroy42 wrote: »

I assume that the opposite it true, that ROI and EU flights will not be able to land in the UK

Correct, without a deal it'll be volcano time in the UK.

That is nonsense. Planes from all over the world land in the UK.
After Brexit, UK airlines may lose "fifth freedoms" which is the right to operate services between countries other than the UK.
That's all.