Brexit discussion thread IV

PeadarCo

Nody wrote:

And we're telling you that as per the current rules such a deal can only be struck after they have left EU and only if EASA confirms the full process of confirming that the CAA has satisfactory supervision. That includes building up all the competencies that EASA has currently in the UK again; i.e. it's not something done over night.

The assumption people seem to be making is that it would be crazy for both sides to reach the end of March and there be no deal relating to airlines. But the whole brexit process on the UK side has been crazy putting it mildly. What Leo has said is nothing new. Michael O Leary was warning of this potential last year. According to an article in the Irish Times Easyjet have set up a new subsidiary to try get around this problem.

When you have hard brexiters advocating a hard brexit. When you have people commenting on line in the UK saying they should just leave now and have a brexit without any agreement, it is very important that you have people like Leo, like Michael O leary highlighting the consequences if that is what happens.

An Ciarraioch

Registration system for EU citizens to be trialled in NW England in August:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/20/post-brexit-registration-system-eu-citizens-trial-august

flutered

Enzokk wrote: »

As I was trying to say, in hindsight they should have taken up their seats. But to expect them to have only taken their seats for these votes is not reasonable. Had they taken up their seats at the start of the current parliament it would have made a difference regarding the votes. Just the threat of her majority being even smaller than it is now would be a warning. Seeing that Theresa May won the votes in the ERG amendments by a maximum of 4 votes (I think), simple arithmetic tells you their 7 votes would have swing it the other way.

The vote on the customs union where the Tories played the system was won by 6 votes. Again simple math tells you their 7 votes would have changed the result.

But I am not blaming them for the vote results. They have always run on not taking up their seats, but their votes could have made it very hard for Theresa May.

their votes would not make it hard for may imo, there would be a massive swing to ensure it would not happen, just look at the anti irish racism on twitter and the red tops tell one that

sink

Essentially the problem with aviation boils down to this

The UK as a signatory of the International Air Services Transit Agreement (IASTA), has agreed to allow fellow signatories to fly over their airspace and is granted the same right in return. The IASTA is a non EU agreement that predates the EU aviation agreements and is still in force. Upon leaving the EU the UK will retain this right.

However the right to land and disembark passenger and cargo require an an additional Air Service Agreement (ASA). The UK as an EU member joined the European Common Aviation Area (ECAA) a component of the EEA, which superseded and voided all prior ASA's between members. It also granted the EU the power to negotiate ASA's with third countries as a single block. The EU ASA's also supersede and voided any pre-existing ASA's between individual members and third countries.

The UK upon leaving the EU will no longer be a member of the ECAA. It will also no longer be party to any ASA's that were negotiated by the EU. This includes the Open Skies agreement with the USA an Canada. If the UK does not sign new agreements with the EU and other third countries it's airlines won't legally be able to land and disembark passengers and cargo in those countries and also foreign airlines won't be allowed to land in the UK.

It's not a question of insurance, or safety certification, those issues are covered by Air Service Agreements.

If anyone wants more information about the legal structures governing the right to fly Internationally, I recommend watching this video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thqbjA2DC-E

And also for more detail this Wikipedia article.

Freedoms of the air

Nody

EU offered UK a 100% trade zero tariff and no quotas deal and UK rejected it because it was not good enough (no services, no unlimited access to the single market without checks, no access to EU institutions etc.); hence they got offered a better deal than Japan which would go in effect on day 1 rather than over 15 years. Tell us again what are EU doing to punish UK?

ancapailldorcha

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I came across this today:



Emphasis on "Taking back control is a careful change, not a sudden step - we will negotiate the terms of a new deal before we start any legal process to leave." I don't know how there isn't more anger about this sort of thing. Cummings knew he was promising unicorns and had no qualms about doing so, nor did Johnson and Gove who were senior government figures at the time.

This is the point I've been making for a while, there's clips of loads of Brexiters before the vote saying "No-one is talking about leaving the single market" yet somehow that's now absolutely a key cornerstone of leaving the EU. Farage FFS talked about Norway. I doubt many of the 52% have changed their minds over it because it's just slid that way, they're being told the EU are being mean and that Britain shall prevail again.

listermint

Trasna1 wrote: »

To be honest, if we had been fed a diet of anti EU rhetoric for 40 years we would be the exact same. Ireland has a very pro-eu media and that really helps to bolster support for the project here.


We are not any smarter, or better educated than them across the Irish sea. We are susceptible to the same bs.

I disagree I think we are better educated. Education comes with quality we are not quagmired where the history of our country is coloured in vast swathes of tint to portray us as the victor.

I think their education system is more matter if fact tbh.

So yes I disagree. It shows in the general worldly outlook even business perspective. Not just EU, global.

sink

MIGFOIIE wrote: »

Its a non issue, blow all out of proportion to scare people.
Good luck flying from Ireland to Europe without going over UK airspace.
Going to be interesting flying from continetal Europe to north America and not going over UK airspace.
Hell if the EU act the complete dick, the UK could block access to airspace over UK territories world wide.
It will not happen, it is a non issue

I take it you didn't read anything I just said so I'll repeat it just for you.

The UK as a signatory of the International Air Services Transit Agreement (IASTA), has agreed to allow fellow signatories to fly over their airspace and is granted the same right in return. The IASTA is a non EU agreement that predates the EU aviation agreements and is still in force. Upon leaving the EU the UK will retain this right.

Unless the UK want's to leave the IASTA, it has to allow Irish flights to fly over UK airspace. If the UK leaves the IASTA, it won't be able to fly in any other countries airspace.

The Issue is not about flyover rights, it's only about landing rights.

trellheim

Let's look at some airlines


1. Easyjet - UK airline, but has established Easyjet europe under austrian AOC - says it will have 100+ aircraft ready to go by brexit.
2. Aer Lingus - Spanish Airline - part of IAG
3. BA - Spanish Airline - part of IAG
4. Ryanair - Irish airline but has huge bases in UK

so the situation is not what people might think

Nody

trellheim wrote: »

Let's look at some airlines


1. Easyjet - UK airline, but has established Easyjet europe under austrian AOC - says it will have 100+ aircraft ready to go by brexit.
2. Aer Lingus - Spanish Airline - part of IAG
3. BA - Spanish Airline - part of IAG
4. Ryanair - Irish airline but has huge bases in UK

so the situation is not what people might think

No one is disputing that the planes can fly in Europe after Brexit and are free to land in the UK; returning from UK is a whole different issue however. Remember those air lines who moved over did so to ensure they remained under the EU regulation and authority; guess which regulation is not there with the UK if they go for their touted "hard brexit"?

Seth Brundle

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Registration system for EU citizens to be trialled in NW England in August:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/20/post-brexit-registration-system-eu-citizens-trial-august

Bloody hell. All they need is a load of star shaped badges!

McGiver

https://twitter.com/2di2d/status/1019341803441582081?s=09

BBC is imho complicit in Brexit by poisoning the UK political culture.

McGiver

Seth Brundle wrote: »

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Registration system for EU citizens to be trialled in NW England in August:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/20/post-brexit-registration-system-eu-citizens-trial-august

Bloody hell. All they need is a load of star shaped badges!

How about issuing IDs for all citizens like any other civilised European country?

devnull

McGiver wrote: »

How about issuing IDs for all citizens like ant other civilised European country?

Unfortunately the words 'civil liberties' will come up fairly soon if they did, I'd say.

devnull

McGiver wrote: »

https://twitter.com/2di2d/status/1019341803441582081?s=09

BBC is imho complicit in Brexit by poisoning the UK political culture.

BBC is a joke, Channel 4 and Sky are an awful lot better and few would have predicted that the later would have been a few years ago.

lawred2

devnull wrote: »

BBC is a joke, Channel 4 and Sky are an awful lot better and few would have predicted that the later would have been a few years ago.

Channel 4 is far superior to Sky

Akrasia

devnull wrote: »

BBC is a joke, Channel 4 and Sky are an awful lot better and few would have predicted that the later would have been a few years ago.

For an organisation often accused of false balance, a 100% Eurosceptic representation is a bit mad.


I think it's probably because the bog standard MEPs are boring eurocrats with no public profile while the likes of farage get good ratings from those who like him, and those who hate him

I would expect that there were plenty of pro Europe voices to counter the MEPs:-$

EdgeCase

trellheim wrote: »

Let's look at some airlines


1. Easyjet - UK airline, but has established Easyjet europe under austrian AOC - says it will have 100+ aircraft ready to go by brexit.
2. Aer Lingus - Spanish Airline - part of IAG
3. BA - Spanish Airline - part of IAG
4. Ryanair - Irish airline but has huge bases in UK

so the situation is not what people might think

What actually matters is the % of shareholders, the fact that IAG's technically brass plated in Madrid isn't really relevant. It's the fact that IAG could have more than 50% non EU, including UK-based share holders in which case, the entire group could lose operating rights. Ryanair's in a similar position.

There are plans in place at IAG to force non-EU based shareholders to divest within 10 days of a hard brexit if needs be.

No one other than IAG knows what the situation is but it looks like after March 2019, it could be as low as 20% EU based shareholders, which is a HUGE problem for both Aer Lingus and Iberia who are in countries that have had had nothing to do with Brexit.

Capt'n Midnight

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Registration system for EU citizens to be trialled in NW England in August:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/20/post-brexit-registration-system-eu-citizens-trial-august

Even money that at least one of those people gets an official letter telling them to leave.

Because it happened before to people who registered.
Home Office mistakenly sent up to 100 letters to EU citizens telling them to leave UK or face removal

devnull

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Even money that at least one of those people gets an official letter telling them to leave.

Because it happened before to people who registered.
Home Office mistakenly sent up to 100 letters to EU citizens telling them to leave UK or face removal

Put it this way, I wouldn't exactly be rushing to sign up for one if it was me as an EU national in the UK.

Enzokk

Trasna1 wrote: »

To be honest, if we had been fed a diet of anti EU rhetoric for 40 years we would be the exact same. Ireland has a very pro-eu media and that really helps to bolster support for the project here.


We are not any smarter, or better educated than them across the Irish sea. We are susceptible to the same bs.

I think if anyone has ever heard someone complain about people from the EU coming to Ireland and claim benefits and have babies means that in Ireland the message could be spread as well.

Akrasia wrote: »

For an organisation often accused of false balance, a 100% Eurosceptic representation is a bit mad.


I think it's probably because the bog standard MEPs are boring eurocrats with no public profile while the likes of farage get good ratings from those who like him, and those who hate him

I would expect that there were plenty of pro Europe voices to counter the MEPs:-$

That graphic is misleading. It shows MEP's that have appeared, yet on every show I believe they have a Labour MP as well as a Conservative MP. It would help no-one to have two Labour politicians appear and two Conservatives politicians who both spout the company line on the show. They have totally missed the pot with their reporting of Brexit, but you have to be careful on what we see as facts.

Here is an interesting article about the ERG.


'We're the opposition': Rees-Mogg and his European Research Group

Baker has already made a series of pointed interventions in the Commons – demanding the publication of DexEU documents, for example – that underline his determination to use every weapon at MPs’ disposal against the government of which he was so recently a part.

He has highlighted how much planning for a no-deal Brexit, the issue for which he was responsible, has already been done, in an attempt to undermine the idea that such an outcome would be a catastrophe.

One source of the ERG’s power is its sheer numbers. When Conservative whips were trying to explain to furious remainers why they had caved in to Rees-Mogg and his colleagues, they told them the ERG had up to 80 MPs ready and willing to vote against the Chequers deal.

So there we have why Theresa May has crumbled to the ERG. They have enough letters ready to go to challenge her leadership. These MP's would also just need to stand together behind a candidate and their numbers would be enough to get that candidate in front of the party membership. The effectively control the Conservatives now as Theresa May has shown bowed to their pressure.

I guess the only way she could have avoided this was to reach across the aisle for support and to work with Labour to get a consensus deal, but with the two party system in effect basically it is impossible to do this.

Capt'n Midnight

lawred2 wrote: »

Channel 4 is far superior to Sky

ITN do the news for Channel 4 (and Channel 5). It's the same way that RTE do the news for TG4.

It's just not as dumbed down as News At Ten or that Sir Trevor stuff, hey he's getting paid well so more power to him.

SKY I can't do. First with the news, while the others are still checking if it's accurate.

BonnieSituation

Here's some video of her meeting the teens in Belfast today.

The awkwardness is palpable.

sound is desperate mind you

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZW0-RE-Ezg8

bilston

I'm sure this has already been discussed but would a "no deal Brexit" mean a hard border by default?

Or does anyone know?!

Capt'n Midnight

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Bloody hell. All they need is a load of star shaped badges!

At first I was "they all going to be deputy sheriffs? "

Then I was :eek:


At present here and in the UK you don't need to carry ID.

Can you imagine the fuss if people were forced to carry their nice new Blue Passports* everywhere ?



*made in France . what's the % for UK tariff or French VAT on passports ?

An Ciarraioch

bilston wrote: »

I'm sure this has already been discussed but would a "no deal Brexit" mean a hard border by default?

Or does anyone know?!

Yes, as Britain would be in neither the EEA, nor a customs union, WTO rules would automatically apply.

Nody

bilston wrote: »

I'm sure this has already been discussed but would a "no deal Brexit" mean a hard border by default?

Or does anyone know?!

Yes; basically all scenarios outside of either NI remaining in a special deal (DUP blocking this) or UK remaining in an Norway style deal (EEA+) would lead to a hard border.

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Yes, as Britain would be in neither the EEA, nor a customs union, WTO rules would automatically apply.

Well it's not so much WTO rules as the applications coming from having no border controls (you're free to have zero border controls under it as long as all countries are treated equal).

McGiver

Enzokk wrote: »

That graphic is misleading. It shows MEP's that have appeared, yet on every show I believe they have a Labour MP as well as a Conservative MP. It would help no-one to have two Labour politicians appear and two Conservatives politicians who both spout the company line on the show. They have totally missed the pot with their reporting of Brexit, but you have to be careful on what we see as facts.

No, it isn't. UK has 73 MEPs, yet the only one appearing is Fartage, a europhobe, and Hannan, a eurosceptic.

McGiver

Nody wrote: »

bilston wrote: »

I'm sure this has already been discussed but would a "no deal Brexit" mean a hard border by default?

Or does anyone know?!

Yes; basically all scenarios outside of either NI remaining in a special deal (DUP blocking this) or UK remaining in an Norway style deal (EEA+) would lead to a hard border.

Or the whole UK staying in the CU.

Nody

McGiver wrote: »

Or the whole UK staying in the CU.

CU is not enough; Turkey is in a CU and they got plenty of checks at the border. To have a open border it needs to be CU + SM which means Norway (EEA) deal or tighter integration.