Brexit discussion thread IV

Capt'n Midnight

bilston wrote: »

I'm sure this has already been discussed but would a "no deal Brexit" mean a hard border by default?

Or does anyone know?!

Big Time.



Even having us match ALL the UK rules and regs AND errecting hard borders with the rest of the EU would still break lots of rules.



Also the EU is a bigger trading partner for us than the UK.

And even then a lot of UK trade goes both ways. So they look bigger than they are.

We import about half as much beef from them as we export. Stuff like Baileys Irish Cream crosses the border six or seven times during production. So the nett trade is lower than the gross figure.

Add to that the stuff imported from the continent via UK head offices, and our trade with the UK would be even lower once we import from the continent via EU offices. Brands like Cadbury's chocolate are made all over the EU. So we don't import as much as you'd think.

Capt'n Midnight

Nody wrote: »

Yes; basically all scenarios outside of either NI remaining in a special deal (DUP blocking this) or UK remaining in an Norway style deal (EEA+) would lead to a hard border.

Well it's not so much WTO rules as the applications coming from having no border controls (you're free to have zero border controls under it as long as all countries are treated equal).

There are still borders between Norway and Sweden. And that's with lots of harmonisation. and like us they use to be the same country and like us they can travel without passports. So it would have to be a special deal where the DUP could claim the special deal was just EEA+++ and the existing phytosanctions applied at the NI ports could be widened a tad.


https://twitter.com/AnnaStellinger/status/889213844433907716/

bilston

bilston wrote: »

I'm sure this has already been discussed but would a "no deal Brexit" mean a hard border by default?

Or does anyone know?!

There has never been a single proposal that could realistically provide for anything but a hard border other than the UK remaining within the Single Market & Customs Union.

Theresa May has repeatedly promised otherwise, but her word is as good as her ability to keep a cabinet together.

McGiver

McGiver wrote: »

Or the whole UK staying in the CU.

It is easy to remember that this isn't enough. We were in a Customs Union with the UK and the other EU member states from 1973 when we joined.

However it was not until the advent of the Single Market that we saw truly soft/porous/open borders within the EU.

A Customs Union is not enough to provide for a border in any way similar to today's. It is the single regulatory framework that has enabled such.

Enzokk

McGiver wrote: »

No, it isn't. UK has 73 MEPs, yet the only one appearing is Fartage, a europhobe, and Hannan, a eurosceptic.

I am saying it is deceptive because there are pro-EU Labour MP's appearing on the show alongside the likes of Farage and Hannan or there are pro-EU Conservatives on the same show. So the photo shows how there are only pro-Brexit MEP's appearing on the show. It doesn't show how many pro-EU MP's appeared on the same show. It makes it look worse for the BBC by showing only MEP's, then again who knows any Labour MEP's without using google?

Capt'n Midnight

Deleted User wrote: »

There has never been a single proposal that could realistically provide for anything but a hard border other than the UK remaining within the Single Market & Customs Union.

Theresa May has repeatedly promised otherwise, but her word is as good as her ability to keep a cabinet together.

There's also the proposal to allow NI stay in the CU as a special region distinct from the rest of the UK.

Just means they'd have to do more checks at ports and airports.

TBH I've always had checks when travelling from ROI to GB by ship or by air even though we are in the CTA. So no change really.

Travelling within Schengen is sooo much easier.

And the UK government have banned certain people in NI travelling to GB in the past too.


If May hadn't called an election she could have thrown the DUP under the bus and the border would be a complete non-issue.

The rest of the UK couldn't care less if there's special rules for NI because there already are. Look at UK ads, lots of finance or insurance stuff is not applicable in NI. From couriers to promotions the GB rules don't apply there, it's like Highlands and Islands except more so. And then there's all the special NI laws like having to record the religion of new hires.

FrancieBrady

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

There's also the proposal to allow NI stay in the CU as a special region distinct from the rest of the UK.

Just means they'd have to do more checks at ports and airports.

TBH I've always had checks when travelling from ROI to GB by ship or by air even though we are in the CTA. So no change really.

Travelling within Schengen is sooo much easier.

And the UK government have banned certain people in NI travelling to GB in the past too.


If May hadn't called an election she could have thrown the DUP under the bus and the border would be a complete non-issue.

The rest of the UK couldn't care less if there's special rules for NI because there already are. Look at UK ads, lots of finance or insurance stuff is not applicable in NI. From couriers to promotions the GB rules don't apply there, it's like Highlands and Islands except more so. And then there's all the special NI laws like having to record the religion of new hires.

Not forgetting that northern Ireland also chooses to distinguish itself in not extending all the rights that are available to those in the UK.

Seth Brundle

McGiver wrote: »

No, it isn't. UK has 73 MEPs, yet the only one appearing is Fartage, a europhobe, and Hannan, a eurosceptic.

Doesn't Fartage and Hannah make two MEPs?

jm08

Akrasia wrote: »

For an organisation often accused of false balance, a 100% Eurosceptic representation is a bit mad.


I think it's probably because the bog standard MEPs are boring eurocrats with no public profile while the likes of farage get good ratings from those who like him, and those who hate him

I would expect that there were plenty of pro Europe voices to counter the MEPs:-$

I think the BBC use Mairead McGuinness a good bit and she is very impressive. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugKYaJ1nuSw

McGiver

Nody wrote: »

McGiver wrote: »

Or the whole UK staying in the CU.

CU is not enough; Turkey is in a CU and they got plenty of checks at the border. To have a open border it needs to be CU + SM which means Norway (EEA) deal or tighter integration.

I stand corrected. The backstop for NI apparently contains - CU, SM and a common VAT regime. So something similar would need to apply for the UK as a whole.

McGiver

jm08 wrote: »

Akrasia wrote: »

For an organisation often accused of false balance, a 100% Eurosceptic representation is a bit mad.

I think it's probably because the bog standard MEPs are boring eurocrats with no public profile while the likes of farage get good ratings from those who like him, and those who hate him

I would expect that there were plenty of pro Europe voices to counter the MEPs:-$

I think the BBC use Mairead McGuinness a good bit and she is very impressive. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugKYaJ1nuSw

Indeed she is. But giving a person from Russia Today an opportunity to talk freely is a bit too much, they should never be allowed to talk in public TV. RT is a Kremlin propaganda machine spreading lies and disinformation trying to destabilise the West and especially the EU. Bad bad bad. If you hear references to "Fascists in Ukraine" you know it's the Russians - this statement is a smoking gun of Kremlin.

An Ciarraioch

A Belgian political cartoon on the current state of talks:

https://i.imgur.com/yR2yBki.jpg

An Ciarraioch

Tony Connelly appears almost resigned to a collapse in talks, judging by today's piece:

https://www.rte.ie/amp/980069/?__twitter_impression=true

Water John

On a diff note, Anna Soubry was on The Last Leg Ch4 last night. Had the audience and fellow guests in the palm of her hand, very respected.
After such a hard week, she was still game for a laugh.
Sadly, too few of her class, in politics.

Igotadose

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tony Connelly appears almost resigned to a collapse in talks, judging by today's piece:

https://www.rte.ie/amp/980069/?__twitter_impression=true

Excellent piece, very tricky issues explained clearly enough for me at least.

McGiver

Incredibly critical and accurate article given the British standards. Thumbs up to the Independent. UK needs more articles like this.

Whoever would have known there would be complexities and difficulties, when a gaggle of populist chancers go round the country shouting about “taking back control of our borders”, win and then instantly rule out the possibility of actually having a border in the one place where a border would be needed.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-brexit-michel-barnier-brexit-a8456806.html

McGiver

Just to put the supply chains issue into perspective.

https://twitter.com/Robert___Harris/status/1020067291361312768?s=09

shakeitoff

I think CTA is definitely going to be effected. If Britain is bullying Ireland as believed by many in Brussels, perhaps they'll attempt to force Ireland's hand with a last throw of the dice.

Jelle1880

Took the EU 8 minutes to laugh May's white paper out of the building.

It really looks like they're not even trying.

Rhineshark

shakeitoff wrote: »

I think CTA is definitely going to be effected. If Britain is bullying Ireland as believed by many in Brussels, perhaps they'll attempt to force Ireland's hand with a last throw of the dice.

I don't quite see how it cannot be affected. Once the EU legislation over it is gone, there is not really much (any) legal basis for the CTA. It is the flimsiest arrangement imaginable and it has only worked because it was absolutely between these two islands. There hasn't been a point where it was seriously challenged by reality. What would have happened if Ireland or the UK had joined alone, without the other? Would we still even remember the CTA or would it be a historical oddity from the early years of the state?

It's being considered safe as much not to give the blackmail Brexiters ammo/reassure citizens of both countries. I think once the dust has settled though, alignment will either be close enough to allow it to continue or it will not and no amount of "of course it'll be fine"s will save it.

Might be wrong and we can fudge it somehow - inertia may help; we are members and this is a pre-established right (probably). Just not convinced it's as safe as it is commonly represented.

McGiver

A bit old but I've seen a lot of talking about the second vote recently. Sadly, I'm afraid the likelihood of a second referendum is zero. Petition demanding a vote on the deal was responded by the HM Gov in Dec 2017 with a rather fanatical response:

There must be no attempts to remain inside the European Union, no attempts to rejoin it through the back door, and no second referendum. The country voted to leave the European Union, and it is the duty of the Government to make sure we do just that. Rather than second guess the British people’s decision to leave the European Union, the challenge now is to make a success of it - not just for those who voted leave but for every citizen of the United Kingdom, bringing together everyone in a balanced approach which respects the decision to leave the political structure of the EU but builds a strong relationship between Britain and the EU as neighbours, allies and partners.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/200004

McGiver

Rhineshark wrote: »

shakeitoff wrote: »

I think CTA is definitely going to be effected. If Britain is bullying Ireland as believed by many in Brussels, perhaps they'll attempt to force Ireland's hand with a last throw of the dice.

I don't quite see how it cannot be affected. Once the EU legislation over it is gone, there is not really much (any) legal basis for the CTA. It is the flimsiest arrangement imaginable and it has only worked because it was absolutely between these two islands. There hasn't been a point where it was seriously challenged by reality. What would have happened if Ireland or the UK had joined alone, without the other? Would we still even remember the CTA or would it be a historical oddity from the early years of the state?

It's being considered safe as much not to give the blackmail Brexiters ammo/reassure citizens of both countries. I think once the dust has settled though, alignment will either be close enough to allow it to continue or it will not and no amount of "of course it'll be fine"s will save it.

Might be wrong and we can fudge it somehow - inertia may help; we are members and this is a pre-established right (probably). Just not convinced it's as safe as it is commonly represented.

Can Ireland finally join Schengen then?

McGiver

Seth Brundle wrote: »

McGiver wrote: »

No, it isn't. UK has 73 MEPs, yet the only one appearing is Fartage, a europhobe, and Hannan, a eurosceptic.

Doesn't Fartage and Hannah make two MEPs?

It does - let's settle for one and a half Hannan been there only twice, Fartage twenty times.

ancapailldorcha

In more depressing news, it looks like UKIP is making a comeback. This poll has them at 8% which is the same as the Lib Dems.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1018193452801101824

The Economist has an article here describing how the party has changed, mainly in that it is adopting a much nastier line towards immigration than Nigel Farage ever did.

Itssoeasy

Just listening to some of the British coverage of this mess known as brexit and it's the 21st of July and it's clear that in some sections of the British political system, there seems to be a complete lack of understanding of the issues still not sorted out.

Some of the statements made make you wonder are the EU and Britian looking at the same thing. It just shows why obtaining a working majority in a parliament is a helpful thing to have.

I think a no deal brexit is far more probable than before just from reading and listening to the British side of things.

McGiver

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tony Connelly appears almost resigned to a collapse in talks, judging by today's piece:

https://www.rte.ie/amp/980069/?__twitter_impression=true

Excellent article. One would wonder what the EU negotiators say behind the closed doors when you hear leaked comments such as this.

EU officials were aghast at some of the contradictions. "A masterclass in cherry-picking", said one official.

McGiver

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

In more depressing news, it looks like UKIP is making a comeback. This poll has them at 8% which is the same as the Lib Dems.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1018193452801101824

The Economist has an article here describing how the party has changed, mainly in that it is adopting a much nastier line towards immigration than Nigel Farage ever did.

That's expected. Far-right is on the rise in the UK. It will only gets worse if either UK stays in the EEA or if UK crashes out and millions of jobs are lost and the Tories sell the NHS etc. Regardless of the Brexit resolution it far right will gain more momentum.

ancapailldorcha

McGiver wrote: »

That's expected. Far-right is on the rise in the UK. It will only gets worse if either UK stays in the EEA or if UK crashes out and millions of jobs are lost and the Tories sell the NHS etc. Regardless of the Brexit resolution it far right will gain more momentum.

It is but until recently, UKIP was all but dead. Farage deliberately took strides to distance it from the far right as much as possible by positioning it as a pro-free trade and sovereignty party. Gerard Batten has done the opposite which isn't going to appeal to mainstream Brits.

Taytoland

Deleted User wrote: »

McGiver wrote: »

Or the whole UK staying in the CU.

It is easy to remember that this isn't enough. We were in a Customs Union with the UK and the other EU member states from 1973 when we joined.

However it was not until the advent of the Single Market that we saw truly soft/porous/open borders within the EU.

A Customs Union is not enough to provide for a border in any way similar to today's. It is the single regulatory framework that has enabled such.

Which has lead to this. Why anyone would advocate for that is beyond me.

McGiver

McGiver wrote: »

Can Ireland finally join Schengen then?

We could, but be ready for passport checks on the RoI/NI border. With a couple of hundred existing crossings of said border it would be a costly and difficult logistical nightmare to implement and maintain.