Brexit discussion thread IV

EdgeCase

It really wouldn't make any sense in these circumstances for Ireland to fully join Schengen, as it would only further complicate what is already a potential mess. From a practical point of view, other than access to Schengen terminals at airports, it provides neither Ireland nor EU with any major advantages as we don't have any land boarder with any other Schengen country but we do have one with a country that is extremely hostile to the ideolgy of Schengen's passport-free single travel zone.

You have to show ID to enter Ireland anyway because you always enter via an airport or port, other than from Northern Ireland, which will probably never be in Shengen.

The fact that we have a passport / ID card check for EU nationals and a totally independent visa and immigration regime for citizens of 3rd countries gives us better flexibility when dealing with the UK on some kind of sane solution to this and retaining the Common Travel Area.

I just can't really see any practical reason why would join Schengen. It would just open a whole new can of worms with Irish-UK relations and deliver very few practical advantages to Irish or European citizens.

We could look at a system where we recognise Schengen visas or even joining the Schengen visa system however without removing the external passport checks. However, I could see that being rejected as cherry picking too. It would be doubtful that it would be accepted as a proposal.

At present Ireland and the UK operate totally separate visa systems anyway. We just have a very narrow range of mutual recognition of visas for tourists and business visitors from China and India under BIVS (British Irish Visa Scheme) but it doesn't extend to other CTA members : The Isle of Man and Channel Islands.

The status quo situation give us flexibility to work bilaterally with a Eurosceptic UK without causing more political issues.

Taytoland

Taytoland wrote: »

Which has lead to this. Why anyone would advocate for that is beyond me.

Led to peace on the Island of Ireland?

Not sure why anyone would be against it tbh.

Anthracite

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It is but until recently, UKIP was all but dead. Farage deliberately took strides to distance it from the far right as much as possible by positioning it as a pro-free trade and sovereignty party. Gerard Batten has done the opposite which isn't going to appeal to mainstream Brits.

It's appealing to 8% and rising.

Leonard Hofstadter

Anthracite wrote: »

It's appealing to 8% and rising.

Ironically that would increase the odds of a Labour Government and Corbyn as PM thanks to FPTP.

I would have been solidly against a Corbyn Government before, but it's simply not possible for them to be as bad as the Tories.

There is of course plenty in the sky thinking from them, too - but nowhere near as much as what the Tories are up to.

Their much more realistic approach would ensure the GFA would be upheld and they want to keep a customs union, too. You can be guaranteed that Labour won't be allowing chlorinated chickens or anything like that. Don't forget more than two-thirds of UK Labour supporters are pro-EU as well.

First Up

Deleted User wrote: »

McGiver wrote: »

Can Ireland finally join Schengen then?

We could, but be ready for passport checks on the RoI/NI border. With a couple of hundred existing crossings of said border it would be a costly and difficult logistical nightmare to implement and maintain.

Doessn't bother me. I enter Germany, France and other EU countries far more often than I enter N.I. Schengen would be great.

And we will be able to get Duty Free travelling to the UK. What's not to like?

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/brianmlucey/status/1020603084806840320

Great thread on aviation

Infini

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/ireland-will-have-hardest-border-in-europe-if-theres-a-no-deal-brexit-37140024.html

Basically warnings that the NI border will be the hardest in Europe if theres a No deal brexit. Honestly I understand where the German guy is coming from but thered be a serious threat of civil war up there if they tried to put one in. History had shown as such and plenty of warnings on this. I honestly think the EU could help bring about this as well by outright making any agreement with them conditional on this it would be the only way to bounce the hard headed ones into an agreement.

I honestly think in the event of a no deal Brexit NI should have a choice on wether it wishes to remain or not rather than just a hard border going up. The DUP be damned they created this mess they can live with the consequences of it. Some might object to a border poll but Id rather see NI have the option of an out than see the alternative.

Inquitus

Infini wrote: »

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/ireland-will-have-hardest-border-in-europe-if-theres-a-no-deal-brexit-37140024.html

Basically warnings that the NI border will be the hardest in Europe if theres a No deal brexit. Honestly I understand where the German guy is coming from but thered be a serious threat of civil war up there if they tried to put one in. History had shown as such and plenty of warnings on this. I honestly think the EU could help bring about this as well by outright making any agreement with them conditional on this it would be the only way to bounce the hard headed ones into an agreement.

I honestly think in the event of a no deal Brexit NI should have a choice on wether it wishes to remain or not rather than just a hard border going up. The DUP be damned they created this mess they can live with the consequences of it. Some might object to a border poll but Id rather see NI have the option of an out than see the alternative.

Sadly this German politician is right, if the UK crashes out the N.I. border will have to be the hardest of any EU country, we have a duty to protect the Single Market and that means checking everything that crosses. It's hard to predict what is going to happen at this point as the English Parliament is in a huge crisis, we could have the Government there fall any moment, we could see May toppled and replaced with Mogg or another Hard Brexiteer. A General Election would paralyse Brexit for at least a couple of months, I assume it takes at least 4-6 weeks to call one if required, and the outcome is far from clear. It is also hard to predict what the best result for Brexit would be, I assume Corbyn in power is the best we can get, but as we know he is no fan of the EU. The numbers in the house favour a very soft Brexit but with the leadership makeup of both parties, unless there were some sort of National Unity Government, its hard to see any of the results helping to soften Brexit.

The EU has no choice but to reject the White Paper out of hand, it is to much of a threat to the EU, the Single Market and the 4 freedoms. Circumstances have conspired to create an awful environment for Brexit with seemingly no path to a sensible soft Brexit or a reversal of course.

We can hope, but hope is beginning to fade, and we will soon have to start putting in place the concrete proposals required to secure our Northern Border, and that means beginning to put required infrastructures in place!

catrionanic

Now here's a thought - what would the DUP say if it was put to them that NI essentially has two options- the backstop of remaining in the CU and SM with an Irish sea border, or a hard border on the island of Ireland coupled with a border poll so that the people can decide what they want.

I would say that just a whisper in Arlene's ear from the British government about a border poll would soon have the DUP singing the praises of NI remaining in the CU and SM, and talk of the Irish sea border would be dead in the water.

Of course, the best time for a border poll is when Brexit has really had its effects on the economy, but just the quiet suggestion of one from the right people may be enough to solve the whole backstop fiasco altogether.

zapitastas

Inquitus wrote: »

Sadly this German politician is right, if the UK crashes out the N.I. border will have to be the hardest of any EU country, we have a duty to protect the Single Market and that means checking everything that crosses. It's hard to predict what is going to happen at this point as the English Parliament is in a huge crisis, we could have the Government there fall any moment, we could see May toppled and replaced with Mogg or another Hard Brexiteer. A General Election would paralyse Brexit for at least a couple of months, I assume it takes at least 4-6 weeks to call one if required, and the outcome is far from clear. It is also hard to predict what the best result for Brexit would be, I assume Corbyn in power is the best we can get, but as we know he is no fan of the EU. The numbers in the house favour a very soft Brexit but with the leadership makeup of both parties, unless there were some sort of National Unity Government, its hard to see any of the results helping to soften Brexit.

The EU has no choice but to reject the White Paper out of hand, it is to much of a threat to the EU, the Single Market and the 4 freedoms. Circumstances have conspired to create an awful environment for Brexit with seemingly no path to a sensible soft Brexit or a reversal of course.

We can hope, but hope is beginning to fade, and we will soon have to start putting in place the concrete proposals required to secure our Northern Border, and that means beginning to put required infrastructures in place!

Any infrastructure will not last. Would need to have armed support 24 hours a day. Hell even with that the infrastructure would not be secure. With over 200 border crossings the infrastructure and manpower required is beyond what this state or the British one could provide.

Inquitus

zapitastas wrote: »

Any infrastructure will not last. Would need to have armed support 24 hours a day. Hell even with that the infrastructure would not be secure. With over 200 border crossings the infrastructure and manpower required is beyond what this state or the British one could provide.

If they WTO out, then it has to be put in place, we have no other options. Mogg now thinks that's the most likely outcome

EdgeCase

zapitastas wrote: »

Any infrastructure will not last. Would need to have armed support 24 hours a day. Hell even with that the infrastructure would not be secure. With over 200 border crossings the infrastructure and manpower required is beyond what this state or the British one could provide.

I think an ultra hard border here would ultimately create a very large political problem as I have my doubts that we would have the political mandate to implement one anymore than the UK has and that would create issues with the Irish-EU relationship where we would end up having to chose between economic stability and all-island social stability and aspirations for some kind of united future..

The British side know that and are willing to assume that we will crack eventually on the basis that we don’t want the island damaged by a border. That’s the reality of that’s going on in the Tories’ heads.

It’s a nasty game they’re playing with huge risks to Northern Ireland no matter what way you look it.

To them, Northern Ireland’s collateral damage and they just don’t care.

I think we are simply going to see the souring of Anglo Irish relations for a generation due to Brexit. The two positions are irreconcilable.

An Ciarraioch

McGiver wrote: »

A bit old but I've seen a lot of talking about the second vote recently. Sadly, I'm afraid the likelihood of a second referendum is zero. Petition demanding a vote on the deal was responded by the HM Gov in Dec 2017 with a rather fanatical response:


https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/200004

One interesting development this weekend is that the Economist has come out in favour of a second vote, if the Commons is unable to deliver a majority for any proposal.

Nody

zapitastas wrote: »

Any infrastructure will not last. Would need to have armed support 24 hours a day. Hell even with that the infrastructure would not be secure. With over 200 border crossings the infrastructure and manpower required is beyond what this state or the British one could provide.

Well then I hope you'll be fully supporting a border in the Irish sea between Ireland and EU instead then; because the Irish state has two options. Either they will effectively enforce their own border and border controls OR anything exported from Ireland has to be treated as coming from a third country. Which one do you think the Irish government will pick? You see you don't set up 200 border crossings; you close the great majority of them with suitable route such as 10m deep Czech hedgehog wall etc. and patrol past regularly to ensure they remain in place. The goal is to stop trucks and vehicles primarily; individuals and farm animals walking through is likely to not take as high priority (unless UK really goes to the deep end with GMO etc.). And yes, that will mean several existing roads and / or communities will have a more difficult life but such is life with a hard border that actually is enforced.

Inquitus

EdgeCase wrote: »

To be honest, I think an ultra hard border here would ultimately create a very large political problem as I have my doubts that we would have the political mandate to implement one anymore than the UK has and that would create issues with the Irish-EU relationship where we would end up having to chose between economic stability and all-island social stability and aspirations for some kind of united future..

The British side know that and are willing to assume that we will crack eventually on the basis that we don’t want the island damaged by a border. That’s the reality of that’s going on in the Tories’ heads.

It’s a nasty game they’re playing with huge risks to Northern Ireland no matter what way you look it.

How can we crack? if the UK ultimately want WTO rules, we can't do anything but put a border in place.

EdgeCase

Inquitus wrote: »

How can we crack? if the UK ultimately want WTO rules, we can't do anything but put a border in place.

They don’t *really* want WTO rules, their position is that they want access to the European market but without any rules or regulations or having to pool sovereignty based on some kind of unrealistic notion that that something that would be agreed to.

The talk I’ve heard from Tory Brexiteers is they’ll use Ireland as a hostage member state to try and soften the EU’s hostility to that position.

They seemed to initially think German industry would also side with them but that’s looking very unlikely.

The issue the Irish government needs to get right is to ensure the UK government gets full political ownership of the consequential damage to Northern Ireland.

Perhaps the border crossings should be named in honor of major Brexiteers.

The Rees Mogg Customs Check Point. The Derry-Donegal Boris Johnson Centre for Truck Inspection?

Dyr

The British couldnt have a more useless hostage than us, the EU have already shown that we're a sacrifice that they're willing to make

Nate--IRL--

Bambi wrote: »

The British couldnt have a more useless hostage than us, the EU have already shown that we're a sacrifice that they're willing to make

In what regard?

Nate

EdgeCase

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

In what regard?

Nate

The issue is that I can’t see reimplementing a hard border being politically acceptable in the republic. It’s all very well to talk about it in theory in a forum but if we start putting up infrastructure, there’ll be a political cost to that and I could easily see it becoming a vexed topic that ends up with Ireland breaching EU law.

It’s hard to know how that would pan out in the Republicans.

If the UK is presented with Hobson’s choice - take it or take nothing, then Ireland is presented with Sophie’s choice : damage Irish unity or damage the economy and EU relations. Pragmatically, we would probably go with the EU but politically and emotionally, putting up border posts isn’t something we are going to be able to do without huge problems.

It’s a messy situation, to put it mildly.

LeinsterDub

EdgeCase wrote: »

The issue is that I can’t see reimplementing a hard border being politically acceptable in the republic. It’s all very well to talk about it in theory in a forum but if we start putting up infrastructure, there’ll be a political cost to that and I could easily see it becoming a vexed topic that ends up with Ireland breaching EU law.

It’s hard to know how that would pan out in the Republicans.

If the UK is presented with Hobson’s choice - take it or take nothing, then Ireland is presented with Sophie’s choice : damage Irish unity or damage the economy and EU relations.

It’s a total mess!

If anything a hard brexit and a hard border could help Irish unity. Several polls have suggested as much.

Rhineshark

Bambi wrote: »

The British couldnt have a more useless hostage than us, the EU have already shown that we're a sacrifice that they're willing to make

Yes, you can tell by the way they are insisting with us that there will be no negotiation with Britain that does not include protection for RoI regarding the border. That was definitely a sign of totally abandoning us, particularly with members of the Commission and other heads of state holding the same line publically whenever asked.

EdgeCase

LeinsterDub wrote: »

If anything a hard brexit and a hard border could help Irish unity. Several polls have suggested as much.

In the medium and long term, but in the next 2 to 5 years, it’s unlikely.

The one thing is Sinn Féin need to avoid blaming the Irish government and the EU for this should it happen. The pressure and blame should be placed on the Tories and the DUP.. If the northern nationalist community take the tabloid line that it’s our fault, then the Brexiteers have won a PR war by splitting Irish nationalism.

Nate--IRL--

EdgeCase wrote: »

The issue is that I can’t see reimplementing a hard border being politically acceptable in the republic.

I think it's well understood by all sides that if there is no agreement then by default there's a border.

Nate

murphaph

EdgeCase wrote: »

The issue is that I can’t see reimplementing a hard border being politically acceptable in the republic. It’s all very well to talk about it in theory in a forum but if we start putting up infrastructure, there’ll be a political cost to that and I could easily see it becoming a vexed topic that ends up with Ireland breaching EU law.

It’s hard to know how that would pan out in the Republicans.

If the UK is presented with Hobson’s choice - take it or take nothing, then Ireland is presented with Sophie’s choice : damage Irish unity or damage the economy and EU relations. Pragmatically, we would probably go with the EU but politically and emotionally, putting up border posts isn’t something we are going to be able to do without huge problems.

It’s a messy situation, to put it mildly.

It is very messy and a hard border would be a horrible outcome but what would nationalists in the north actually prefer? A prosperous RoI with minor crossings closed to vehicular traffic and inspections on (probably only) commercial vehicles at approved crossings or an open border and the RoI cut off from its biggest market and the loss in prosperity that will bring.

There will never be a vote for a UI if the RoI is not performing well economically. That's the reality.

Tropheus

Some robust questioning of Mogg here from C4 News. The UK needs a lot more of this. The media is derelict in their duty.

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1020671636524191745

EdgeCase

murphaph wrote: »

It is very messy and a hard border would be a horrible outcome but what would nationalists in the north actually prefer? A prosperous RoI with minor crossings closed to vehicular traffic and inspections on (probably only) commercial vehicles at approved crossings or an open border and the RoI cut off from its biggest market and the loss in prosperity that will bring.

There will never be a vote for a UI if the RoI is not performing well economically. That's the reality.

Well that is the question.

I think SF need to play a leadership role to avoid a the British right wing stirring things up. Nationalists need to play a long game on this. The UK is already trying to blame the EU and Ireland for the border situation and that rhetoric will inevitably ratchet up.

This is the Tory & DUP Brexit and all consequences of such are theirs to own in full!

EdgeCase

Tropheus wrote: »

Some robust questioning of Mogg here from C4 News. The UK needs a lot more of this. The media is derelict in their duty.

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1020671636524191745

It’s interesting that he's forecasting the success of brexit to be "over the next 50 years". I don't think the electorate were told this was an economic reorientation that could be longer than the remainder of their lifetimes.

murphaph

EdgeCase wrote: »

It’s interesting that he's forecasting the success of brexit to be "over the next 50 years". I don't think the electorate were told this was an economic reorientation that could be longer than the remainder of their lifetimes.

Yeah that's an astounding comment. Imagine the leave bus had had "£350m for the NHS in 50 years" on the side. Wouldn't have been quite so appealing.

Absolute snake oil salesman.

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1020583156431409152

swampgas

Ian Dunt captures the insanity of the last week in UK politics in his blog here.

His final summing up identifies just how ideological Brexit is for leavers:

"The people who do not know the consequences of the UK's current course of action have chosen not to know. This became a religious debate about identity long ago. If objective reality had anything to do with it, we wouldn't have seen the events of this week in the first place."

With the recent events in the UK, I think Ireland and the rest of the EU are starting to come to the grim conclusion that the UK is unlikely to become capable of meaningful dialogue or reasonable negotiation in time to avoid a no-deal Brexit. This is not a simple political issue, it is a mass delusion, a national mania, and there seems to be no stopping it in the short term.

Ireland has a tricky path to follow. Should the government start preparing for a hard border? If so, when? And how would it be done - how many crossings would need to be kept open, and at what cost? What could be done to gain the cooperation of local communities, and to reduce the impact of a hard border on them?

If there were a General Election in Ireland in the next 6 months I assume that Brexit would be the most significant issue for voters. What positions would the parties take? What would happen if Sinn Féin ended up in government, perhaps as part of a coalition? How would that affect Ireland's relationship with a UK government if it is still being propped up by the DUP?

We may need to form a national unity government in Ireland to get through the next 12 to 24 months if things get as bad as I think they will.