Brexit discussion thread IV

trellheim

We may need to form a national unity government in Ireland to get through the next 12 to 24 months if things get as back as I think they will.

What would be different from the supply and confidence arrangement as it stands currently ?

swampgas

trellheim wrote: »

What would be different from the supply and confidence arrangement as it stands currently ?

Not a lot perhaps - but the S&CA is due to expire soon, as far as I understand it. FF might prefer to go into a coalition and take up some ministerial seats rather than sit on the sidelines.

trellheim

CTA predates the EU and is more of a gentlemans agreement than a legal agreement like Schengen . Tony Connelly's excellent book goes into considerable detail

Off Topic kind of but FF & FG will do a lot of things long before allowing SF be the leading opposition party. If the Labour Party weren't on its knees, you might see a FF/FG coalition if needs be for a strong government, but I can't see either of them shrugging off the pork barrel stuff.

judeboy101

Two questions:

1. What are the implications for ppl up north who identify as Irish? Will they have to register as EU citizens by the UK government?

2. Will EU citizens who are resident in UK pre 2019 have full voting rights in parliamentary elections AND EU elections?

swampgas

Deleted User wrote: »

Off Topic kind of but FF & FG will do a lot of things long before allowing SF be the leading opposition party. If the Labour Party weren't on its knees, you might see a FF/FG coalition if needs be for a strong government, but I can't see either of them shrugging off the pork barrel stuff.

The fear I have is that Irish political parties might be tempted to use Brexit as a way to score points against each other and improve their positions. That could be disastrous if it damages the ability of the government to act decisively and with majority national backing when difficult decisions need to be made, especially round any kind of hard border.

Inquitus

trellheim wrote: »

CTA predates the EU and is more of a gentlemans agreement than a legal agreement like Schengen . Tony Connelly's excellent book goes into considerable detail

Indeed but it only covers right to travel, work and live, not customs, import, export etc. It could go hand in hand with a hard border for Goods and Services you would think?

trellheim

Two questions:

1. What are the implications for ppl up north who identify as Irish? Will they have to register as EU citizens by the UK government?

2. Will EU citizens who are resident in UK pre 2019 have full voting rights in parliamentary elections AND EU elections?

1 - will be part of any NI agreement I'd say

2 - some of that should be sorted out in the already agreed transition piece , have a google about for it

An Ciarraioch

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Off Topic kind of but FF & FG will do a lot of things long before allowing SF be the leading opposition party. If the Labour Party weren't on its knees, you might see a FF/FG coalition if needs be for a strong government, but I can't see either of them shrugging off the pork barrel stuff.

The figures all favour Leo:

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1020715030109712384

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1020722196329697280

trellheim

Inquitus wrote: »

Indeed but it only covers right to travel, work and live, not customs, import, export etc. It could go hand in hand with a hard border for Goods and Services you would think?

Yes - leaving aside the Goods and services though I think CTA and the Schengent question stand separately - as you say though hand in hand.

My fear is having to enforce similar standards to the UK ( we do anyway but we'd not be able to have a soft border and meet two divergent standards for immigration in a post-brexit world )

Taytoland

swampgas wrote: »

Ian Dunt captures the insanity of the last week in UK politics in his blog here.

His final summing up identifies just how ideological Brexit is for leavers:

"The people who do not know the consequences of the UK's current course of action have chosen not to know. This became a religious debate about identity long ago. If objective reality had anything to do with it, we wouldn't have seen the events of this week in the first place."

With the recent events in the UK, I think Ireland and the rest of the EU are starting to come to the grim conclusion that the UK is unlikely to become capable of meaningful dialogue or reasonable negotiation in time to avoid a no-deal Brexit.  This is not a simple political issue, it is a mass delusion, a national mania, and there seems to be no stopping it in the short term.  

Ireland has a tricky path to follow.  Should the government start preparing for a hard border? If so, when? And how would it be done - how many crossings would need to be kept open, and at what cost?  What could be done to gain the cooperation of local communities, and to reduce the impact of a hard border on them?  

If there were a General Election in Ireland in the next 6 months I assume that Brexit would be the most significant issue for voters.  What positions would the parties take? What would happen if Sinn Féin ended up in government, perhaps as part of a coalition?  How would that affect Ireland's relationship with a UK government if it is still being propped up by the DUP?

We may need to form a national unity government in Ireland to get through the next 12 to 24 months if things get as bad as I think they will.

He's right, it's got very little to do with economics for me. It's purely on ideology and against the global order.

Infini

swampgas wrote: »

The fear I have is that Irish political parties might be tempted to use Brexit as a way to score points against each other and improve their positions. That could be disastrous if it damages the ability of the government to act decisively and with majority national backing when difficult decisions need to be made, especially round any kind of hard border.

I don't necessarily think that will be the case. If a Hard Brexit happen's despite all effort's to try and avert this then the case should shift quickly from stopping the border to begin pushing hard for a Border Poll as a way of making this unnessesary. There's a very realistic chance of actually making this happen when thing's go south thanks to the Mogglydites and their idiotic messing. The DUP will be wide open to being torn apart should their economy tank thanks to Westminster's incompetence and not only could our government basically work with the EU to basically demand ANY trade agreement be subject to at the minimum require the backstop as mandatory.

On top of that the Shinner's are smart enough to know if they got a realistic chance of reunification they aren't gonna waste it playing petty politic's. A stable Dublin Government and being part of the EU with all right's involved is an incredibly potent way of winning people over especially when coupled with the advantage's of steamless trade, improved representation and superior right's to their current status expecially with abortion and marriage.

Any of the headbanger's from the DUP who complain should be hammered down with solid logical fact. Over and over reminding them every time they were offered every opportunity for an out but they used their position to block this and are the one's who created this situation. They made their bed they can lie in it. The border in the sea is the only viable option, any land border is not only unenforceable long term but seriously risk's opening up unwanted issues of the past. NI voted to stay. The DUP disregarded the wishes of the province for their own ideological interests, they should pay a heavy price for helping to create this situation.

Taytoland

The border in the sea is the only viable option, any land border is not only unenforceable long term but seriously risk's opening up unwanted issues of the past. NI voted to stay. 

Not happening in a million years.

EdgeCase

Taytoland wrote: »

He's right, it's got very little to do with economics for me. It's purely on ideology and against the global order.

He's right other than the political issues. There may be issues in border counties but, I can't see the rest of the country being as perturbed by it as the perception in the UK sometimes thinks.

When push comes to shove in the Republic, it's about economics, jobs, Etc

The biggest election issue here by a long shot is the on going issues in the health service and secondly housing. Brexit is, unless it has economic fallout, fairly far down the shopping list.

Ireland's electorate is capable of some very pragmatic decuson making and there's actually political consensus on our Brexit position and a long history of coalition and consensus government.

swampgas

Taytoland wrote: »

Not happening in a million years.

Agreed - I reckon 5 to 10 years will be enough.

Silent Running

Taytoland wrote: »

Not happening in a million years.

Here's a question for you: If you were faced with a border in the Irish sea or a united Ireland, which would you choose?

swampgas

EdgeCase wrote: »

He's right other than the political issues. There may be issues in border counties but, I can't see the rest of the country being as perturbed by it as the perception in the UK sometimes thinks.

When push comes to shove in the Republic, it's about economics, jobs, Etc

The biggest election issue here by a long shot is the on going issues in the health service and secondly housing. Brexit is, unless it has economic fallout, fairly far down the shopping list.

Ireland's electorate is capable of some very pragmatic decuson making and there's actually political consensus on our Brexit position and a long history of coalition and consensus government.

It would be interesting to know how big an issue Brexit would be, should a hard Brexit look likely. It would be (IMO) dangerous for any party to play it down. Every party will need a position on it at the very least, even if it isn't their top issue.

Ireland isn't immune to national hysteria either - if there is a real chance of unification, people might get caught up in it.

EdgeCase

swampgas wrote: »

It would be interesting to know how big an issue Brexit would be, should a hard Brexit look likely. It would be (IMO) dangerous for any party to play it down. Every party will need a position on it at the very least, even if it isn't their top issue.

Ireland isn't immune to national hysteria either - if there is a real chance of unification, people might get caught up in it.

Hard to know. I would say it depends on distance from the border. If you're in Donegal it's a huge issue but it's all a bit theoretical in Dublin or Cork.

An Claidheamh

Taytoland wrote: »

Not happening in a million years.

Bit like how unionists said coalition with SF would never happen, Dublin having a say in ruling the North would never happen, Ian Paisley's son having an Irish passport would never happen?

It's a weak UK against the EU, it will happen one way or the other.

Taytoland

Silent Running wrote: »

Taytoland wrote: »

Not happening in a million years.

Here's a question for you: If you were faced with a border in the Irish sea or a united Ireland, which would you choose?

Both mean the same thing.

Water John

When people throw up the option of unification, what have people in mind?
Has any thought been ever put into that other than dew-eyed notions?

Just making the Dail a bit bigger hardly qualifies.

Sorry if this is a tangent.

Dyr

EdgeCase wrote: »

Well that is the question.

I think SF need to play a leadership role to avoid a the British right wing stirring things up. Nationalists need to play a long game on this. The UK is already trying to blame the EU and Ireland for the border situation and that rhetoric will inevitably ratchet up.

This is the Tory & DUP Brexit and all consequences of such are theirs to own in full!

What long game? I'd imagine the only long game either group are interested in reunification.

Nationalists and SF supporters in the north tend to be justifiably skeptical when people in the republic are advising them on what to do as though they have their best interests at heart.

Rhineshark

Taytoland wrote: »

Both mean the same thing.

No...they really, really are not.

EdgeCase

Bambi wrote: »

What long game? I'd imagine the only long game either group are interested in reunification.

Nationalists and SF supporters in the north tend to be justifiably skeptical when people in the republic are advising them on what to do as though they have their best interests at heart.

I'm sure they are, but they would still want to actively avoid falling into the "blame Europe and foreigners" British tabloid stuff which is precisely what will be thrown around the moment any border issue arrises.

Silent Running

Taytoland wrote: »

Both mean the same thing.

Not in a million years are they the same thing.

If a concession was made to have a border in the Irish sea, NI would avoid the worst of the damage from Brexit. Which would ease pressure for a UI, because things would be a lot brighter in NI.

Try and think outside the lodge for a few minutes. A sea border could solve a lot of Orange problems.

An Claidheamh

Tropheus wrote: »

Some robust questioning of Mogg here from C4 News. The UK needs a lot more of this. The media is derelict in their duty.

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1020671636524191745

Quote from the twiter feed below that.


@daysofspeed
·
4h
You won’t have anything remotely like this from the BBC.



So true.

Taytoland

Rhineshark wrote: »

Taytoland wrote: »

Both mean the same thing.

No...they really, really are not.

Northern Ireland would be outside the internal market of the UK, economically detached. Alignment with the Irish Republic's economy and divergence from the UK economy, it would be paramount to the same thing which is why it won't happen.

EdgeCase

Bambi wrote: »

What long game? I'd imagine the only long game either group are interested in reunification.

Nationalists and SF supporters in the north tend to be justifiably skeptical when people in the republic are advising them on what to do as though they have their best interests at heart.

The long game is reunification by consent. I think ultimately that means making a sales pitch that a United Ireland is a far better alternative than the being a remnant of the 1801 Act of Union in an era when English politics is increasingly isolationist and inward looking.

A very negative outcome to Brexit does actually change the dynamics rather a lot.

Water John

You miss the point Tayto, that NI would have the best of both worlds.

swampgas

Taytoland wrote: »

Northern Ireland would be outside the internal market of the UK, economically detached. Alignment with the Irish Republic's economy and divergence from the UK economy, it would be paramount to the same thing which is why it won't happen.

Sure there would be resistance from many unionists to it. But if enough unionists decided that they would be better off detached from the UK, well who knows what might happen?

There are no certainties here.