Brexit discussion thread IV

Taytoland

swampgas wrote: »

Taytoland wrote: »

Northern Ireland would be outside the internal market of the UK, economically detached. Alignment with the Irish Republic's economy and divergence from the UK economy, it would be paramount to the same thing which is why it won't happen.

Sure there would be resistance from many unionists to it.  But if enough unionists decided that they would be better off detached from the UK, well who knows what might happen?

There are no certainties here.

I accept that, that's democracy via a vote.

Imreoir2

Taytoland wrote: »

Not happening in a million years.

Either it happens next year under the withdrawl treaty, failing that it happens in 5 to 10 years under a United Ireland.

Taytoland

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Taytoland wrote: »

Not happening in a million years.

Either it happens next year under the withdrawl treaty, failing that it happens in 5 to 10 years under a United Ireland.

Based on what?

Capt'n Midnight

swampgas wrote: »

If there were a General Election in Ireland in the next 6 months I assume that Brexit would be the most significant issue for voters. What positions would the parties take? What would happen if Sinn Féin ended up in government, perhaps as part of a coalition? How would that affect Ireland's relationship with a UK government if it is still being propped up by the DUP?

We may need to form a national unity government in Ireland to get through the next 12 to 24 months if things get as bad as I think they will.

Varadkar proposes summer 2020 election date to Martin

Technically we already have a govt of national unity. It keeps SF out of any chance of power and for both FG and FF everything else is just icing on the cake.

A 2020 date suits both parties. Gives FF a chance to recover in the polls too.

Also stops dead any UK speculation about an election here, or using it as an excuse.

Imreoir2

Water John wrote: »

When people throw up the option of unification, what have people in mind?
Has any thought been ever put into that other than dew-eyed notions?

Just making the Dail a bit bigger hardly qualifies.

Sorry if this is a tangent.

Plenty of thought has been put into it, some more realistic, some of it less so. The idea of a federal Ireland, allowing unionism to still hold a significant amount of sway regionally in the north, has been put forward more than once.

If Brexit goes bad and a hard border is forced on us, I think the question of unification has to move to the top of the national agenda. The options, and agangements needed to make unification work should be seriously studied. Freeing this island from a destabelising British influence would be vital for us during the 2020s.

Imreoir2

Taytoland wrote: »

Based on what?

The economic self interest of both parts of the island.

bilston

Silent Running wrote: »

Not in a million years are they the same thing.

If a concession was made to have a border in the Irish sea, NI would avoid the worst of the damage from Brexit. Which would ease pressure for a UI, because things would be a lot brighter in NI.

Try and think outside the lodge for a few minutes. A sea border could solve a lot of Orange problems.

But how would a border in the Irish Sea make economic sense for Northern Ireland?

According to NISRA (govt research agency) Northern Ireland sold £4bn worth of exports to the Republic and £15bn to GB (although it's not really an export to GB but let's pretend for the argument it is) and £3bn to the rest of the EU in 2016. Another £5bn were global. In other words Northern Ireland's exports to GB are worth more than the rest of the world combined.

An Ciarraioch

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Plenty of thought has been put into it, some more realistic, some of it less so. The idea of a federal Ireland, allowing unionism to still hold a significant amount of sway regionally in the north, has been put forward more than once.

If Brexit goes bad and a hard border is forced on us, I think the question of unification has to move to the top of the national agenda. The options, and agangements needed to make unification work should be seriously studied. Freeing this island from a destabelising British influence would be vital for us during the 2020s.

From the last national discussion on the topic - obviously, a new report would need input from both communities, but a useful starting point:


http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/issues/politics/nifr.htm

Anthracite

Silent Running wrote: »

Try and think outside the lodge for a few minutes. A sea border could solve a lot of Orange problems.

Orange problems of their own making. Both countries being in the EU + Good Friday meant that everybody in the North could live with the current reality.

A hard Brexit, with hard border, plus inevitable economic decline in the UK - amiplified, with nobs on, in NI (seriously, who in Britain will care a fig for them as their economy implodes) means that borderline Nationalists and indeed borderline unionists may well consider rejoining the EU via ROI as the least-worst option in the coming decade.

I'm not saying it's a good thing, I'm just saying it is quite a likely turn of events given the current trajectory.

Anthracite

Taytoland wrote: »

Northern Ireland would be outside the internal market of the UK, economically detached. Alignment with the Irish Republic's economy and divergence from the UK economy, it would be paramount to the same thing which is why it won't happen.

Would you rather be aligned to a booming economy, or chained to a sick one?

Silent Running

bilston wrote: »

But how would a border in the Irish Sea make economic sense for Northern Ireland?

According to NISRA (govt research agency) Northern Ireland sold £4bn worth of exports to the Republic and £15bn to GB (although it's not really an export to GB but let's pretend for the arguement it is) and £3bn to the rest of the EU in 2016. Another £5bn were global. In other words Northern Ireland's exports to GB are worth more than the rest of the world combined.

Why would that stop? NI would be both part of the UK and in the EU Single market and customs union. Best of both worlds. If only the Unionists could take off the blinkers for a short while and think of the whole population of NI.

listermint

Taytoland wrote: »

Based on what?

Based on the polls indicating a very softening position from centerist unionists which make up the bulk of unionism. The middle ground are and always have been only interested in economics their pockets and living in peace.

Have a gander at the polls.

Then have a gander at why the farmers union of NI have been up and down to Dublin meeting with high level senior civil servants .


Economics not idiology.

Taytoland

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Taytoland wrote: »

Based on what?

The economic self interest of both parts of the island.

Then you misunderstand the inner workings of Northern Ireland politics and life in general to be honest. It would take a monumental shift within Unionism not seen ever before for that to happen which would need more than just economics. But what you say could easily just be thrown towards the EU, how many other countries are going to leave the EU?

You have populist nationalism running rife in Europe right now, parties and leaders getting elected who take very strong anti EU stance on many issues such as immigration, the Euro. You have the Swedish Democrats which is fiercely Euroskeptic calling for a referendum on leaving the EU and they are now number one in the polls in Sweden, which would have been unthinkable just 3 years ago. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Swedish_general_election,_2018

Anthracite

Taytoland wrote: »

Then you misunderstand the inner workings of Northern Ireland politics and life in general to be honest. It would take a monumental shift within Unionism not seen ever before for that to happen which would need more than just economics. But what you say could easily just be thrown towards the EU, how many other countries are going to leave the EU?

You have populist nationalism running rife in Europe right now, parties and leaders getting elected who take very strong anti EU stance on many issues such as immigration, the Euro. You have the Swedish Democrats which is fiercely Euroskeptic calling for a referendum on leaving the EU and they are now number one in the polls in Sweden, which would have been unthinkable just 3 years ago. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Swedish_general_election,_2018

I think this line of argument is best summarised as: "Hey, look over there!"

listermint

Taytoland wrote: »

Then you misunderstand the inner workings of Northern Ireland politics and life in general to be honest. It would take a monumental shift within Unionism not seen ever before for that to happen which would need more than just economics. But what you say could easily just be thrown towards the EU, how many other countries are going to leave the EU?

You have populist nationalism running rife in Europe right now, parties and leaders getting elected who take very strong anti EU stance on many issues such as immigration, the Euro. You have the Swedish Democrats which is fiercely Euroskeptic calling for a referendum on leaving the EU and they are now number one in the polls in Sweden, which would have been unthinkable just 3 years ago. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Swedish_general_election,_2018

Your thoughts conflict with the polls though.

I'd imagine you are aware of that though

murphaph

bilston wrote: »

But how would a border in the Irish Sea make economic sense for Northern Ireland?

According to NISRA (govt research agency) Northern Ireland sold £4bn worth of exports to the Republic and £15bn to GB (although it's not really an export to GB but let's pretend for the argument it is) and £3bn to the rest of the EU in 2016. Another £5bn were global. In other words Northern Ireland's exports to GB are worth more than the rest of the world combined.

GB could immediately conclude a FTA with NI so there would be no tariffs on NI exports to GB. There would only need to be phytosanitary checks etc. and these could be undertaken during the voyage.

I have zero interest in a UI but it's obviously significantly easier (from a practical point of view) to perform border checks at ports and airports than along a 500km porous border. There are already checks on animals making the crossing.

swampgas

murphaph wrote: »

GB could immediately conclude a FTA with NI so there would be no tariffs on NI exports to GB. There would only need to be phytosanitary checks etc. and these could be undertaken during the voyage.

I have zero interest in a UI but it's obviously significantly easier (from a practical point of view) to perform border checks at ports and airports than along a 500km porous border. There are already checks on animals making the crossing.

Interesting idea - is there any precedent for an internal FTA between two parts of the same country?

And if NI's status is linked to the EU, wouldn't that FTA have to involve the EU also?

An Ciarraioch

swampgas wrote: »

Interesting idea - is there any precedent for an internal FTA between two parts of the same country?

And if NI's status is linked to the EU, wouldn't that FTA have to involve the EU also?

Not quite an FTA, but Hong Kong and Macau have special status within China, guaranteeing their political and economic systems:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_administrative_regions_of_China

McGiver

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

McGiver wrote: »

That's expected. Far-right is on the rise in the UK. It will only gets worse if either UK stays in the EEA or if UK crashes out and millions of jobs are lost and the Tories sell the NHS etc. Regardless of the Brexit resolution it far right will gain more momentum.

It is but until recently, UKIP was all but dead. Farage deliberately took strides to distance it from the far right as much as possible by positioning it as a pro-free trade and sovereignty party. Gerard Batten has done the opposite which isn't going to appeal to mainstream Brits.

UKIP is a soft far-right, only the tip of the iceberg. I meant the actual far-right BNP, Tommy Robinson etc.

McGiver

Infini wrote: »

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/ireland-will-have-hardest-border-in-europe-if-theres-a-no-deal-brexit-37140024.html

Basically warnings that the NI border will be the hardest in Europe if theres a No deal brexit. Honestly I understand where the German guy is coming from but thered be a serious threat of civil war up there if they tried to put one in. History had shown as such and plenty of warnings on this. I honestly think the EU could help bring about this as well by outright making any agreement with them conditional on this it would be the only way to bounce the hard headed ones into an agreement.

I honestly think in the event of a no deal Brexit NI should have a choice on wether it wishes to remain or not rather than just a hard border going up. The DUP be damned they created this mess they can live with the consequences of it. Some might object to a border poll but Id rather see NI have the option of an out than see the alternative.

How it could be harder than any external EU border with countries not in CU or DCFTA? For example Finland-Russia or Poland-Belarus or Croatia-Serbia.

Taytoland

McGiver wrote: »

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

McGiver wrote: »

That's expected. Far-right is on the rise in the UK. It will only gets worse if either UK stays in the EEA or if UK crashes out and millions of jobs are lost and the Tories sell the NHS etc. Regardless of the Brexit resolution it far right will gain more momentum.

It is but until recently, UKIP was all but dead. Farage deliberately took strides to distance it from the far right as much as possible by positioning it as a pro-free trade and sovereignty party. Gerard Batten has done the opposite which isn't going to appeal to mainstream Brits.

UKIP is a soft far-right, only the tip of the iceberg. I meant the actual far-right BNP, Tommy Robinson etc.

Tommy Robinson must be the most confused far right person then, what with his actual liberal views on immigration.

McGiver

Tropheus wrote: »

Some robust questioning of Mogg here from C4 News. The UK needs a lot more of this. The media is derelict in their duty.

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1020671636524191745

Yet look what bollocks he is spouting elsewhere.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/politics/parties/conservatives/jacob-rees-mogg/why-are-we-making-america-great-again/

Imreoir2

Taytoland wrote: »

Then you misunderstand the inner workings of Northern Ireland politics and life in general to be honest. It would take a monumental shift within Unionism not seen ever before for that to happen which would need more than just economics. But what you say could easily just be thrown towards the EU, how many other countries are going to leave the EU?

You have populist nationalism running rife in Europe right now, parties and leaders getting elected who take very strong anti EU stance on many issues such as immigration, the Euro. You have the Swedish Democrats which is fiercely Euroskeptic calling for a referendum on leaving the EU and they are now number one in the polls in Sweden, which would have been unthinkable just 3 years ago. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Swedish_general_election,_2018

You don't need to bring about a monumental shift in Unionism to achieve a United Ireland. Going by recent polls, you only need a good day for nationalism and a relatively small swing. In the normal course of affairs, it was rather improbable that this would come to pass, and if a workable agreement is reached it remains fairly improbable.

A no-deal Brexit is something of a perfect storm though. The DUP has discredited itself by being bribed to support Brexit in the first place, and by being seen to block a pragmatic solution to NI's problems. If, as is almost certain, this results in serious economic difficulty for NI, and the erection of a hard border which beyond the inconvenience it will cause, will be a symbol of British misrule, then it's hardily beyond the realms of possibility that the middle ground, and even some small u unionists, will throw their lot in with the republic.

swampgas

I imagine that for many unionists, the idea of switching their national identity to Ireland is about as palatable as it would be for many Irish people to switch back to being British.

But if a majority go for it, they will have to adapt as best they can. It would probably be only a small part of the many changes that would need to be taken on board.

murphaph

swampgas wrote: »

Interesting idea - is there any precedent for an internal FTA between two parts of the same country?

And if NI's status is linked to the EU, wouldn't that FTA have to involve the EU also?

HK is part of China but economically separate. There is precedent there I believe.

Dyr

Imreoir2 wrote: »

You don't need to bring about a monumental shift in Unionism to achieve a United Ireland. Going by recent polls, you only need a good day for nationalism and a relatively small swing. In the normal course of affairs, it was rather improbable that this would come to pass, and if a workable agreement is reached it remains fairly improbable.

A no-deal Brexit is something of a perfect storm though. The DUP has discredited itself by being bribed to support Brexit in the first place, and by being seen to block a pragmatic solution to NI's problems. If, as is almost certain, this results in serious economic difficulty for NI, and the erection of a hard border which beyond the inconvenience it will cause, will be a symbol of British misrule, then it's hardily beyond the realms of possibility that the middle ground, and even some small u unionists, will throw their lot in with the republic.

They won't, not in any number.

Loyalism isn't going to buy into a successful border poll, the DUP didnt support the GFA in the first place. They (correctly) see Brexit as a way to rip it up.

Peter Robinson was recently making noises about a unity plus 1 border poll not being workable.

Topgear on Dave

Bambi wrote: »

They won't, not in any number.

Loyalism isn't going to buy into a successful border poll, the DUP didnt support the GFA in the first place. They (correctly) see Brexit as a way to rip it up.

Peter Robinson was recently making noises about a unity plus 1 border poll not being workable.

Well if a 52/48 result is good enough to leave the EU in a hard brexit..... :rolleyes:

Havockk

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Well if a 52/48 result is good enough to leave the EU in a hard brexit..... :rolleyes:

It's a bit like the 'no regulatory divergence between GB and NI' .... except for equal marriage and abortion kind of thing.

Unionism is doomed, they have absolutely no endgame prepared for this day and just refuse to even accept the possibility there will even be a poll. They have not invested in themselves, and now as the old political classes are becoming defunct who have they prepared to come in their wake?? The likes of Bryson or Pankhurst, politicians who would likely have difficulty in running a bath.

I laughed earlier in the thread when it was bemoaned that SF could have saved the day with votes and everyone could have lived happily ever after. Seriously? Why would SF want to squander the greatest political bone they have been thrown by moronic unionism? That would be tantamount to political harakiri.

Dyr

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Well if a 52/48 result is good enough to leave the EU in a hard brexit..... :rolleyes:

As far as the DUP are concerned you're comparing apples with oranges... almost literally.

Infini

Taytoland wrote: »

Based on what?

Well let's start on the reason for NI coming about in the first place. A century ago, NI stayed with the UK while the south became the Free State because at the time the south was poor, they feared Rome Rule (Ironically they were fairly correct on this issue), and were loyal to Westminster which at the time wanted to keep as much of the territory as they could. The UK at the time was a world power and properous after Victory in the 1st World War and there was plenty of buisness in shipbuilding and such.

Now look at the situation regarding a border poll a century later where thanks to all the stupidty a Hard Border has AGAIN gone up. @2020~25: The North is a poor region with high unemployment, many job's have been lost thanks to a self destructive policy of economic sabotage perpertrated by the DUP and the 5th column subversive's of the ERG, they've lost access to EU business, funding and have been thrown under the bus by said 5th column subversives and their worker right's and oppertunities have been restricted because the UK government forced a Hard Border because the DUP and that would not agree to an economic border to keep said options open. All the while the UK is in a serious depression because of this and all the while politically unstable.

Meanwhile the Republic of Ireland is stable, fairly liberal and reasonably prosperous, with superior civil and worker's rights and is part of the EU which is helping to support us. The catholic church who's influence the unionist's a century ago feared it's influence is about as popular as a lead balloon thanks in no small part to the kiddy fiddling scandals and the women abuse and no longer has any sway in public policy. We have a situation now where the North is a poor region, stifled of investment and suffering the catastrophic effect's of a foolhardy and self destructive policy of ignorant and weak politicians who poisoned the well because they couldn't accept the fact that today's world is decided by large economic power block's and being part of one is necessary to avoid being thrown under the bus by larger more powerful countries and blocks.

Now if a border poll happen's and people are given the choice between:

1) Staying attached to a country that has lost influence in the world, has brought on a self inflicted recession/depression, suffer's from unstable broken politics and could possibly at some point be on the verge of seeing Scotland break away into an independent Republic of its own and slashed worker's right's to try and compete. The same country also with the cooperation of the DUP drove the NI economy off the cliff for the sake of an ideological interest with no regard to the greater interest of ALL of NI.

or

2) Reunifying with the Republic as part of the EU, with the promise of more stable government, better representation, possible provincial federal structure to help balance out representation, significant business and EU investment to help with reunification, superior civil and worker's right's and across the board all Island procedure's with no land border's, Freedom of movement within the vast majority of europe and overall a much brighter future.

Push anyone far enough or make them struggle and if you offer them an out from all the BS and they WILL vote for it. One has to remember NI DOES have the option from an out from all this carry on if enough people call for it. Unionist's should punish the DUP severely or wipe them out at the ballot box if NI get's thrown under the bus because it's those who created this situation and who helped cause it. Remember FF in the south used to be popular for a long time until their stupidity crashed the economy and even 10 year's later are still suffering the penalty for it.