Increase in population renting... ticking time bomb?

Creative83

I was just thinking that with the ever increasing amount of people renting... What are these people going to do when they retire? You would need a great pension pot to continue renting at current rates which is sadly beyond many.

Is this now a ticking time bomb? I mean unless government provides social housing for this specific need it seems we are sleep walking into a disaster.

Thoughts?

doolox

I saw a documentary on this subject concerning retirees in Germany who are finding it difficult to maintain rental payments on their homes because of inadequate pensions in the face of rising rents.

A similar thing could happen here. The only solution for many may be to move to cheaper locations away from the job-rich East towards the job starved parts of the country where rents are cheaper but then you lose access to services, public transport etc which are essential to the daily lives of many retirees.

I am aware of many retirees who capitalised on their expensive houses in the East and moved to places like Longford or Roscommon and they were OK as long as one of the couple could drive. As soon as both became too infirm to drive the trouble began. Lives become very difficult when you can no longer drive.

One gent was hit bit a speeding motorist on a country lane and this incident shortened his life in the final analysis.

There is also the social dislocation such moves can have on people but the availability of free transport alleviates this somewhat as long as the old people can get a house near public transport. Places like Moate, Ballyhaunis etc on Expressway bus routes or mainline train routes would appear to be the best.

I know of several people who arrange regular reunions from remote rural locations to inner city Dublin to meet up with old friends from old neighbourhoods that they have been priced out of. It seems now that only high-paid workers in shared accommodation can afford to live in Dublin.

Graces7

doolox wrote: »

I saw a documentary on this subject concerning retirees in Germany who are finding it difficult to maintain rental payments on their homes because of inadequate pensions in the face of rising rents.

A similar thing could happen here. The only solution for many may be to move to cheaper locations away from the job-rich East towards the job starved parts of the country where rents are cheaper but then you lose access to services, public transport etc which are essential to the daily lives of many retirees.

I am aware of many retirees who capitalised on their expensive houses in the East and moved to places like Longford or Roscommon and they were OK as long as one of the couple could drive. As soon as both became too infirm to drive the trouble began. Lives become very difficult when you can no longer drive.

One gent was hit bit a speeding motorist on a country lane and this incident shortened his life in the final analysis.

There is also the social dislocation such moves can have on people but the availability of free transport alleviates this somewhat as long as the old people can get a house near public transport. Places like Moate, Ballyhaunis etc on Expressway bus routes or mainline train routes would appear to be the best.

I know of several people who arrange regular reunions from remote rural locations to inner city Dublin to meet up with old friends from old neighbourhoods that they have been priced out of. It seems now that only high-paid workers in shared accommodation can afford to live in Dublin.

This is a terrible problem indeed. I am relieved to be now in council accommodation, so out of the private rental situation that was getting already impossible.

Maybe we need to rebuild community so that isolated old folk have support. I knew a few who would take a neighbour to the shops in rural areas . Easier when they had known them I suppose.

Fol20

How about if you have specially built villages in the midlands where it’s specifically built for them. Then prices would be cheap and at least they would be surround by people of their own age to talk to

Staplor

Fol20 wrote: »

How about if you have specially built villages in the midlands where it’s specifically built for them. Then prices would be cheap and at least they would be surround by people of their own age to talk to

Like an old people ghetto?

Mrs OBumble

Some will live with their children. Others will have to house share - yhe same way they afforded to live when their earnings were low.

Graces7

Fol20 wrote: »

How about if you have specially built villages in the midlands where it’s specifically built for them. Then prices would be cheap and at least they would be surround by people of their own age to talk to

We love talking to all ages, we older ones. To be part of the existing community There are retirement villages already.

Collie D

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

Some will live with their children. Others will have to house share - yhe same way they afforded to live when their earnings were low.

What of the ones without children? Or the ones whose children emigrated so that they could afford to buy a place?

House sharing in your 70s sounds like some craic.

Scraggs

Fol20 wrote: »

How about if you have specially built villages in the midlands where it’s specifically built for them. Then prices would be cheap and at least they would be surround by people of their own age to talk to

Older people do not deserve to be shipped out to old people "ghettos". They should be able to remain in the communities/areas they grew up in and specially designed accommodation should be created in these areas for those that choose to avail of it.

4068ac1elhodqr

Not an instant solution (but a 'future overnight solution'), to the housing & infrastructure crisis.
I.e. Hyperloop. A pneumatic vacum tube transport system.
Galway direct to Dublin (it says) in 11mins, at a leisurely 1,260km/h

Theoretically you could build housing in some random bogland, and tube workers in/out before they finish their coffee.

Good to see the schools/next generation getting involved in it's evolution. http://www.eirloop.ie

antoinolachtnai

Transport won’t aolve the problem if there is a general shortage of homes. Well located homes in Galway aren’t exactly cheap.

This is a general problem rather than a problem specific to elderly people or indeed to rented accommodation.

When there is a shortage everyone seeking accommodation gets squeezed but the people on the lowest income are going to be the ones who get squeezed out of the market.

The solution to this is not to have a shortage.

Fol20

Scraggs wrote: »

Older people do not deserve to be shipped out to old people "ghettos". They should be able to remain in the communities/areas they grew up in and specially designed accommodation should be created in these areas for those that choose to avail of it.

That’s only if they can afford it....If they can’t afford it, they should go somewhere cheaper. Even for young people, if you can afford to where you want to live, you need to move out further to a cheaper spot.

Mrs OBumble

Graces7 wrote: »

We love talking to all ages, we older ones. To be part of the existing community There are retirement villages already.

You do Graces7, but you aren't exactly representative of the wider population.

Most people prefer to spend time with either relatives, or with friends of a similar age-group. While it's nice to have some contact with younger people, most older people know that the youngsters should spent most of their time living their own lives, not hanging out with oldesters.

Collie D wrote: »

What of the ones without children? Or the ones whose children emigrated so that they could afford to buy a place?

Council housing. One bedroom apartments in most cases. The same as is used for retired renters now - except there will need to be more 55+ social housing built in future.

Dravokivich

Fol20 wrote: »

That’s only if they can afford it....If they can’t afford it, they should go somewhere cheaper. Even for young people, if you can afford to where you want to live, you need to move out further to a cheaper spot.

Makes no odds at the end of the month when you put commuting costs and time on top of that.

4068ac1elhodqr

antoinolachtnai wrote: »

Transport won’t aolve the problem if there is a general shortage of homes. Well located homes in Galway aren’t exactly cheap.

This is a general problem rather than a problem specific to elderly people or indeed to rented accommodation.

When there is a shortage everyone seeking accommodation gets squeezed but the people on the lowest income are going to be the ones who get squeezed out of the market.

The solution to this is not to have a shortage.

Regular transport won't, but the 5th generation (Hyperloop supersonic type) would be truely revolutionary, not only in housing/commuting, costs, environment but in national productivity.

New garden towns and affordable smaller cities/towns could be expanded (quicker, cheaper and easier than in Dublin or it's surburbs).

Even along 5 key network lines (Waterford, Cork, Limerick, Galway, Sligo, Dundalk) with just a couple of stops on each line, this would cover all the main population areas across the country.

Road congestion would be eased, accidents reduced, pollution reduced, cycle lanes expanded. The list of benefits would be near endless!

Of course it would be decade(s) long project.

If the gov wants to quickly expand the population by 1m before 2040/50. Not to mention the unknown quantity (or quality) variable - of the more immediate 'post-brexit EU mass arrivals', it could spell a very uneasy phase with the urgent demand for 500,000 new homes.

antoinolachtnai

Lamar Icy Gill wrote: »

Regular transport won't, but the 5th generation (Hyperloop supersonic type) would be truely revolutionary, not only in housing/commuting, costs, environment but in national productivity.

New garden towns and affordable smaller cities/towns could be expanded (quicker, cheaper and easier than in Dublin or it's surburbs).

Even along 5 key network lines (Waterford, Cork, Limerick, Galway, Sligo, Dundalk) with just a couple of stops on each line, this would cover all the main population areas across the country.

Road congestion would be eased, accidents reduced, pollution reduced, cycle lanes expanded. The list of benefits would be near endless!

Of course it would be decade(s) long project.

If the gov wants to quickly expand the population by 1m before 2040/50. Not to mention the unknown quantity (or quality) variable - of the more immediate 'post-brexit EU mass arrivals', it could spell a very uneasy phase with the urgent demand for 500,000 new homes.

Only if you built densely around the stations and had very a high standard of public transport. But if we had those two things we would not be where we are now.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

Some will live with their children. Others will have to house share - yhe same way they afforded to live when their earnings were low.

No matter what the topic you are always a source of human kindness and empathy.

4068ac1elhodqr

antoinolachtnai wrote: »

Only if you built densely around the stations and had very a high standard of public transport. But if we had those two things we would not be where we are now.

Buses, bikes, uber or private/shared cars (to 'park and ride' multi-story car parks) for the short journeys to the (out of town) hyperloop stations points.

Being a fairly simple sealed vacum tube, it's a relatively small footprint. Unaffected by weather, maintenance or even jumpers for that matter.

Anywhere in the country in 15mins, opens opportunites to commute (not rent or buy) into major urban areas. Whereas this would previously been a 2-3hr+ journey.

Graces7

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

You do Graces7, but you aren't exactly representative of the wider population.

Most people prefer to spend time with either relatives, or with friends of a similar age-group. While it's nice to have some contact with younger people, most older people know that the youngsters should spent most of their time living their own lives, not hanging out with oldesters.

. Oldesters?

Where I live the younger help the old ones. That is what community is about and if we lose that ? And we still have choice .

Graces7

Staplor wrote: »

Like an old people ghetto?

I hesitated to use that term but you are correct and it makes me wince. As an almost octagenarian....

where i live the council built a row of small sheltered easy to run houses for the old folk, who refused to move. We have young families there now and a sturdy Meals on Wheels provision.

The_Conductor

Lamar Icy Gill wrote: »

Regular transport won't, but the 5th generation (Hyperloop supersonic type) would be truely revolutionary, not only in housing/commuting, costs, environment but in national productivity.

Hyperloop supersonic transport systems?
Ireland is bankrupt- broke- beyond belief.
The collective psyche seems to think we have a magic money tree that can conjure up untold riches to pay for scifi type projects like supersonic hyperloop transport systems.........

We have a small- widely dispersed population- with a sole city of any mass in international terms.......... I may not have any particular fondness for Dublin- but I also don't denigrate it- there is no point in trying to pretend that some sort of a super-duper transport system is going to make Waterford/Wexford- a new must-go location for companies- or the upcoming generations of retirees who are going to need housing.

Part of our legacy of the financial crisis- is a national debt of over 200 billion- and its still increasing. Next year- servicing our national debt is going to rise to 11 billion. We owe over twice as much per head of population- as does the perpetual basket case of the Eurozone- Greece- yet- somehow everyone seems to keep making the case that Ireland is some sort of an exception- well, newsflash, we're not.

We've cooked the books- several times over- to get around EU borrowing limits- it was on this front that Irish Water fell- and it is for this very reason that all the public housing schemes are being brought onto the National Books- and included in the National Debt.

We do need widely dispersed retirement homes- with access to the facilities and amenities that an aging population needs. Keeping people in their own homes- while it may be noble in concept- is not necessarily what elderly people actually need- and indeed- as people age- their needs change- so while living on their own might suit them one year- they might need assisted living the next- and full time care thereafter. We need to accept that we need to put these facilities in place- and we also need to accept- that people are going to have to make a fair and reasonable contribution towards the cost of their retirement and its associated costs.

The unfunded schemes of the past- where the workers of today pay for the needs of today's retirees- in the expectation that the workers of tomorrow will pay for the needs of tomorrow's retirees- simply doesn't stack up. By 2030- our dependency ratio- that is the number of dependents per economically active worker- will double from 2015 figures. In 12 short years- we are going to hit this brick wall.

Its already too late to put long term plans into place- we need to deal with the emergencies and the firefighting- and try to muddle our way through as we go along.

Between now and then- we have to stop making stupid promises to people that we can't afford to pay for. It may make great vote buying for politicians- to promise an extra 20 quid a week for OAPs- but those 20 quids a week- add up very fast- esp. as the number of OAPs explodes.

Telling today's workers that they can't claim the old age pension until 67, 68, 70 and ultimately 72 (according to some position documents)- simply means you're telling the workers of today that they're not allowed to retire- period.

For the first time in almost 70 years- the average morbidity age- has plateaued in Ireland (and is actively falling in the UK- we're probably just slightly behind where they are).

We do have a ticking time bomb- which we're not willing to acknowledge- for the simple reason- we have no manner or means of paying for it.

Personally I favour the likes of the retirement villages on the outskirts of towns that you have in the US where you can buy a lifelong right to reside in an assisted living village- which was part of a wider community (albeit in an area that you can actually afford to live in- you don't necessarily get to stay in Dublin or Galway). There are panic buttons in all the units- access to meals on wheels, nurses on call, daily excursions all over the place, shopping trips, etc etc.

Its all well and good- pretending that its a problem that doesn't exist- or that people are somehow going to magically sort themselves out- the simple fact of the matter is- they're not..........

We don't have a system in place- and we're playing ostrich at the same time- making people retire at a more elderly age- and incrementally increasing the age of retirement- well, as a solution- it'll work, if we keep moving the goalposts- to stop people from retiring- and we'll end up the same as they do in the US- where you have all the elderly people packing bags in the supermarkets- or running errands for you in Sams Club.

We have a ticking time bomb- that we're not willing to discuss- instead we have politicians making promises to current OAPs- in the hope of buying their votes at the next elections- without any cognisance of whether the promises they are making are affordable, or not (hint: they're not.......)

Franz Von Peppercorn

The debt per head is far less valuable than debt to GDP ratio. If you earn more you can pay back more.

Individuals & the governments have decades to work on this. I reckon many individuals will also play ostrich along with the governments.

We might well have hotels or similar full of OAPs in the future. Those who sort themselves out will pick up the bill along with those working.

Difficult problem to solve no doubt.

The_Conductor

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

The debt per head is far less valuable than debt to GDP ratio. If you earn more you can pay back more.

GNP is probably a better measure in the case of Greece and Ireland- and coincidentally- its roughly US$260 for Ireland and US$300 billion for Greece (in 2016 terms). Ireland has a population of 4.7m, Greece has a population of 10.4m. Ireland has a national debt of over 200billion and is expected to peak at 260billion by 2022- Greece has a national debt which is expected to peak at 404billion, also by 2022.

Ireland's debt to GDP ratio is flattered by the large number of multinationals who are theoretically HQ'ed here- if you strip them out of the equation- and remove the unfair corporation taxes that have been giving our exchequer an unexpected lifeline (particularly over the last 3 years)- the picture tells a very different story.

Ireland may have a signficantly higher GDP per head of population- than does Greece- however, its not a fair comparator- and it ignores the cost of living here- and the theoretical PPIs (as measured by Eurostat) which paint a rather depressing picture- which obviously it is not in our politicians interest's to discuss..........

Greece is a basketcase- and isn't out of the woods by any means- however, they're in good company............ We're playing ostrich, sticking our heads in the sand- because politically its toxic to try and discuss these things in the open.

Graces7

The_Conductor wrote: »

Hyperloop supersonic transport systems?

Personally I favour the likes of the retirement villages on the outskirts of towns that you have in the US where you can buy a lifelong right to reside in an assisted living village- which was part of a wider community (albeit in an area that you can actually afford to live in- you don't necessarily get to stay in Dublin or Galway). There are panic buttons in all the units- access to meals on wheels, nurses on call, daily excursions all over the place, shopping trips, etc etc.

There are a number of these already. Many attached to nursing homes.
But needs to be through choice.

In a good local community this can be informal not dragooned.

The_Conductor

Graces7 wrote: »

There are a number of these already. Many attached to nursing homes.
But needs to be through choice.

In a good local community this can be informal not dragooned.

The problem with giving people choice- is when their needs are evolving- which is what happens with the elderly- their choice, right here, right now- won't suit them in 6 months or a year's time- and we won't have the opportunity to address their needs on a changing basis regularly (and if they can't afford to house themselves- they will expect the taxpayer to pony up and dig them out).

We do have some planned retirement developments attached to nursing homes- and we also have some small villages- such as in Ballymun and Inchicore in Dublin (for example)- where facilities and amenities are available for the elderly- and they can pick and choose what they want to access (be it meals on wheels, a daily visit for home help- or whatever). I think the informal nature of these- where you can access what you need- when you need it- rather than having someone on your case 24-7, works better- and allows people more independence than does a formal retirement environment (and you can go and do your own thing- but in the knowledge- is something does go wrong, there is support there for you).

Its a bit of a balancing act- but unfortunately- we've only a few examples of this, thus far- where we need thousands of units brought on stream in as expeditious a manner as possible.

I'm also in favour of the tenancy for life scheme- whereby a retiree can buy a tenancy that will last them their days- and the unit then reverts back to the local authority (or housing association- or whoever)- who will refresh it for its next recipient...........

We need to bring these onstream- as quickly as possible- our need for these type units- is about to soar.

4068ac1elhodqr

The_Conductor wrote: »

Hyperloop supersonic transport systems?
Ireland is bankrupt- broke- beyond belief...

True enough https://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/ireland
Out of town retirement villages is a good no-brainer, perhaps a no-lose offering.

Not to mention your further acknowledgement of the upcoming nightmare of 'harmonisation' (yes it's a very nice word, with very ugly consequences).

A plan and gradual provision for a hyperloop system could kill many birds with one stone, not to mention housing, national productivity, green targets, quality of life indices and so forth.

If and when the technology becomes fully proven (and reduced significantly in costs due to economies of scale), it can be quickly rolled out to a 'pre-planned roadmap'. A bit like trading in a tired costly slow diesel for a near zero cost E/Hydrogen Car (after inital investment). It's a trade off, but a good one.

Just 5 routes to a single main hub, catchment for perhaps of 80% entire population. The 'location factor' for both companies and workers may well diminish instantly. Just 15mins to anywhere point-to-hub.

Creative83

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

Some will live with their children. Others will have to house share - yhe same way they afforded to live when their earnings were low.

Good god :eek: As a society I hope we don't let this happen to our senior citizens.

Graces7

The_Conductor wrote: »

The problem with giving people choice- is when their needs are evolving- which is what happens with the elderly- their choice, right here, right now- won't suit them in 6 months or a year's time- and we won't have the opportunity to address their needs on a changing basis regularly (and if they can't afford to house themselves- they will expect the taxpayer to pony up and dig them out).

Not very kind? We are the people who raised and supported and educated you.

So of course you owe us ongoing respect and support?

And by the way we are not helpless. lol.. I made a choice for myself and was already on a pension and RS ..
Also I feel you may be unaware of existing flexible support systems in local communities to enable us to live where and how we seek to live.
I have experienced this.

The_Conductor

Graces7 wrote: »

Not very kind? We are the people who raised and supported and educated you.

So of course you owe us ongoing respect and support?

And by the way we are not helpless. lol.. I made a choice for myself and was already on a pension and RS ..
Also I feel you may be unaware of existing flexible support systems in local communities to enable us to live where and how we seek to live.
I have experienced this.

Graces- thats you.
Lots of people do not have the same opinion as you have.
I made choices for myself too- some good, some not so good- and I've worked myself to the point of actual collapse in work- despite chronically poor health- to try and do the best for my children and their future.
I do not expect my children to support me in my old age- though I suspect I'll not reach old age- hopefully I live long enough to see them through school and college, and teach them the best possible life skills I can do.

I am aware of the flexible support systems in local communities- and how difficult it is to access those systems- in many cases- I've tried to help a number of elderly neighbours- and have a list of excuses longer than my arm from the HSE, the Community Welfare Officer, the Local Community Nurse- and others- as to why the services my neighbours need- simply can't be made available to them.

Its all well and good trying to superimpose your chosen independence on the needs of others- but there isn't a one size fits all approach- and while you may be ecstatically happy to be as independent as you are- others might be happier to get a little ongoing help- or with the knowledge that if they needed help or assistance- that its there.

Even little things- like groceries during the cold snap in February- took on a massive significance for many people who were unable to get out and about- and didn't have anyone they could rely on- and as for an ambulance or emergency service- you might get lucky- but even parts of Dublin were complete no-go areas for up to a week.

Its great that you are as independent as you are- and that you are happy with the facilities, services and amenities that are available to you. Others are not in your happy position.

As for respect and support- I honestly believe everyone deserves respect and support- I don't believe that any particular cohort have a god given right to supports over and above anyone else. However- this does not mean I believe anyone should be left behind- its simply a pragmatic acknowledgement that its not an ideal world- and we have to make choices that we might not necessarily like- cognisant of the fact that money is in constraint- and over the coming decade- is going to become more and more an issue- as the dependency ratio for our workforce doubles.

I'm not trying to pick a fight with you- I am simply saying- the facilities, services and amenities that are available to you today- will not be available to someone who retires in 10 years time- and we need to plan for that sad day. We can't make rash promises to people- that we can't afford to follow through on- yet, that is just what we're in the process of doing.

Ireland has traditionally been exceptionally generous towards its elderly who are not in a position to provide for themselves. This generosity- is unquestioned- however, its also increasingly unaffordable- only to openly suggest this- is tantamount to suggesting that we go and open the halla an suaimhneas, there is some sort of a suggestion that we are going to throw our elderly to the wolves- when what we really need to do- is to openly discuss how we are going to provide for the elderly in the years to come- in light of the rapid aging of the Irish population.

Ireland has 10 years or so- to join up the dots and come up with some sort of a response- however, it is going to involve unpalatable choices. Simply suggesting we have a magic money tree- or sure the leprachauns have a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow- isn't going to cut it.

We need to plan for the future- cognisant of our rapidly aging population- and the 500,000 additional pensioners we'll have within the next 15 years (with the dependency ratio for workers doubling within 12 years). These are inconvenient truths, to borrow a term from Al Gore.

We need to sit down and discuss how we are going to deal with it- without our current cohort of pensioners getting it into their heads that we're attacking them somehow.

Our current pensioners are lucky in many respects- and those who are coming in their wakes will in all probability look at the rights and expectations of our current pensioners in jealousy- as the future for people retiring in Ireland in future- is never going to be as good as it is now.

Graces7

The_Conductor wrote: »

Graces- thats you.


I am aware of the flexible support systems in local communities- and how difficult it is to access those systems- in many cases- I've tried to help a number of elderly neighbours- and have a list of excuses longer than my arm from the HSE, the Community Welfare Officer, the Local Community Nurse- and others- as to why the services my neighbours need- simply can't be made available to them.


Its all well and good trying to superimpose your chosen independence on the needs of others-

I am not doing that, simply saying we need to choose our level or not of deependence; you go in the opposite direction?


but there isn't a one size fits all approach- and while you may be ecstatically happy to be as independent as you are- others might be happier to get a little ongoing help- or with the knowledge that if they needed help or assistance- that its there.

Even little things- like groceries during the cold snap in February- took on a massive significance for many people who were unable to get out and about- and didn't have anyone they could rely on- and as for an ambulance or emergency service- you might get lucky- but even parts of Dublin were complete no-go areas for up to a week.

Its great that you are as independent as you are- and that you are happy with the facilities, services and amenities that are available to you. Others are not in your happy position.

******************************************8

I hear you and I understand, believe me. And we are cut off weeks here with no air ambulance even.
And I keep food stocks in.

But what you say all shows less a deficiency in social provision than in US,ALL OF US, as a community . One thing that has been a recurring theme in my two decades in Ireland is the sometimes breath taking reliance on support for all manner of things on "the government" . This seems to be an Irish trait as it was not like this in the UK. And this is probably why I am what you call "independent" .
You are right that the help is not here! Recently I could no longer get out to do my shopping. I tried every agency, including V de P and Action Age, then finally worked out a system utilising an existing community facility in a different way and yes I was shocked at the lack of realism. Of lateral thinking . Of over dependence on authority.
when I lived in Scotland, the drs etc were very keen on getting old folk into hoes rather than home care. Many baulked at "putting Mammy away."

Agree we will need more accommodation etc, but not with setting ghettos aside. Any more than putting all "social welfare" people in the same estate works. Scatter us old ones among neighbours rather than paid staff? We have a lot to give after all. We really do.

How about how Japan cares for its elderly?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lf-OBn8Nwko