Increase in population renting... ticking time bomb?

Wanderer78

Augeo wrote: »

I asked what are the issues within our financial sector contributing to the current situation, which I stated is supply not coming close to meeting demand.

id find it too complicated to be honest, particularly by text, and theres far better people out there to do that, but at some stage, in the age of financialization, we must start recognizing the effects of the financial sector is playing in leading us to this position, effectively privitising our monetary system has failed, it is causing a rapid rise in debt, particularly private debt which has been caused by the rapid rise in asset prices caused by the creation of this credit.

AndrewJRenko

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

Look, building 100s of thousands of social housing by the government and paying the maintenance etc just isn’t sustainable anymore,

Yes the government did it in the past but it just can’t afford the burden anymore.

60 million euro is owed to the council in rent arrears.

What council? And how much is owed to the council in rates from businesses?

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/dublin-city-council-owed-247m-at-end-of-last-year-1.1770299

The government hasn't built "100s of thousands of social housing" over the last 20 years cumulatively. It has been hundreds a year, or maybe a couple of thousand a year in the last year or two.

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

id find it too complicated to be honest, particularly by text, and theres far better people out there to do that, but at some stage, in the age of financialization, we must start recognizing the effects of the financial sector is playing in leading us to this position, effectively privitising our monetary system has failed, it is causing a rapid rise in debt, particularly private debt which has been caused by the rapid rise in asset prices caused by the creation of this credit.

For all the private debt Ireland has there's as much on deposit

tom1ie

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

Look, building 100s of thousands of social housing by the government and paying the maintenance etc just isn’t sustainable anymore,

Yes the government did it in the past but it just can’t afford the burden anymore.

60 million euro is owed to the council in rent arrears.

Social housing is indeed a burden on the state. A necessary burden for the most part, but it is definitely abused also.
Affordable housing is just like normal housing for the working population but results in further debt as the price is lower as the costs associated with it are lower.
I think certain people arguing against this are either in an industry that profits from high house prices (to be fair there are many industries) or they just have there head buried in the sand and don’t want to be educated.

Wanderer78

Augeo wrote: »

For all the private debt Ireland has there's as much on deposit

would you have any links to support this, as id be interested to see that? thank you

slightly outdated graph of Irish debt included

tom1ie

ELM327 wrote: »

Retrain, reskill, upskill, educate, invest in future.
I'd love to not work or work a basic job but it's not viable.
I'm looking to pay down my mortgage, build up my investment portfolio and wait until more private LL exit the rental market before returning to property investment.




Your posts are very much left wing socialism.
Anti high earners, anti profit, anti large companies. You expect them to fund the lower earners and non earners through free/discounted housing.


If you do not identify as left wing right now then you have some thinking to do IMO.


I suggest this site as an interesting barometer.
https://www.politicalcompass.org/test


Here's my result
https://www.politicalcompass.org/yourpoliticalcompass?ec=7.13&soc=6.15

I’m gonna give that a go. It looks interesting. To be honest I wouldn’t really pigeon hole myself as left or right. I have different views on different things.
I don’t like the idea of people abusing social housing and I would like to see things done differently with that regard.
I can also see the benefit of reducing middle class people’s mortgage debt so they are free to invest money in whatever else they want ie shares, house extensions holidays etc.
I really dont see why you are arguing against that, unless you work in an industry that benefits from high mortgage debt perhaps?

ELM327

tom1ie wrote: »

I’m gonna give that a go. It looks interesting. To be honest I wouldn’t really pigeon hole myself as left or right. I have different views on different things.

That's the thing, I find it an interesting barometer because it asks questions based on your attitudes to both the fiscal and social right/left divides... if you answer them all truthfully it will show you quite accurately where you lie on the divide.

tom1ie wrote: »

I don’t like the idea of people abusing social housing and I would like to see things done differently with that regard.
I can also see the benefit of reducing middle class people’s mortgage debt so they are free to invest money in whatever else they want ie shares, house extensions holidays etc.
I really dont see why you are arguing against that, unless you work in an industry that benefits from high mortgage debt perhaps?

I work in fintech. Not related to mortgage debt being high though.


People should be free to spend their own money as they please.
People being given free/discounted houses should not be given this free capital. The only thing that should be given is tenancy - not ownership - and even that only in cases of destitute.

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

would you have any links to support this, as id be interested to see that? thank you

slightly outdated graph of Irish debt included

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/latest-news/household-savings-in-banks-outstrip-debts-36758309.html

Wanderer78

Augeo wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/latest-news/household-savings-in-banks-outstrip-debts-36758309.html

sorry im struggling to read that, any idea what the total amount of deposits are in ireland at the moment, does it equate to 280% of gdp? thank you

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

sorry im struggling to read that, any idea what the total amount of deposits are in ireland at the moment, does it equate to 280% of gdp? thank you

"Irish banks now have €10.2bn more on deposit from households than is loaned out into the economy"

"The loan-to-deposit ratio for households stood at 0.90 in February."

Wanderer78

Augeo wrote: »

"Irish banks now have €10.2bn more on deposit from households than is loaned out into the economy"

"The loan-to-deposit ratio for households stood at 0.90 in February."

by any chance are they comparing public debt levels to deposits, again does this equate to 280% of gdp? thank you

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

by any chance are they comparing public debt levels to deposits, again does this equate to 280% of gdp? thank you

The article is the article.
There are black and white facts in there.

There is no mention of public debt, national debt or sovereign debt......... which as you no doubt know is the debt owed by the government.


The article is speaking about private deposits and debt.

tom1ie

ELM327 wrote: »

That's the thing, I find it an interesting barometer because it asks questions based on your attitudes to both the fiscal and social right/left divides... if you answer them all truthfully it will show you quite accurately where you lie on the divide.


I work in fintech. Not related to mortgage debt being high though.


People should be free to spend their own money as they please.
People being given free/discounted houses should not be given this free capital. The only thing that should be given is tenancy - not ownership - and even that only in cases of destitute.

See I think this is where we fundamentally disagree. I see it as banks builders developers making loads of profit through sale of houses to middle class people. That’s one side of the see saw. The other side is the homeowners having to pay back all the debt they had to take out to purchase this house as there were no other houses available cheaper. This reduces there disposable income which is a bad thing.
You say these people shouldn’t get any help whatsoever off the state via affordable housing, whereas i say they should, as there overall disposable income will increase due to lower mortgage payments. However banks will still be making profits off these mortgages and the private sector is still going to be selling houses.
If the situation continues as is, we will end up with the super rich , the indebted class, and the social welfare class.
There will be no middle class. It will get to the stage that if you want to purchase a house it will require an inter generational mortgage!

Wanderer78

Augeo wrote: »

The article is the article.
There are black and white facts in there.

There is no mention of public debt, national debt or sovereign debt......... which as you no doubt know is the debt owed by the government.


The article is speaking about private deposits and debt.

facts according to whos opinion? so there is 280% of gdp on deposits in irish banks, any idea how much that is in real money? thanks again

The_Conductor

The_Conductor wrote: »

The current situation is a result of a lack of joined up planning/thinking- alongside a regulatory environment in the construction industry that effectively means Ireland is the most expensive country in the EU to construct residential property in. Also- everyone wants to live in Dublin (and to a lesser extent Cork and Galway- and a few other cities)- but no-one wants to acknowledge that the plausible manner of giving in to this wish- is high density residential developments. Instead we have artificially low rise decreed as the law for Dublin- and good luck to anyone who wants to rock the boat.

Its not greed by any means- its complete and utter incompetence, period.

I actually don't think it is incompetence, I think those in power are quite happy with the current situation as their base see themselves as richer the more house prices inflate.

tom1ie

Flying Fox wrote: »

I actually don't think it is incompetence, I think those in power are quite happy with the current situation as their base see themselves as richer the more house prices inflate.

Yeah too many people in power, be it politicians or bankers or developers or landowners, stand to make plenty of money if the status quo remains the same.
An example of this is the government blocking the German lending institution from operating in Ireland and providing mortgages at a lower interest rate than what is available at the moment. The overriding rule seems to be to protect the banks profit margins at all costs, which invariably leads to higher debt on the ordinary joe soap.

nthclare

Sadly a lot of Millenials will end up in a bad prediciment in the future, there's not much secure full time jobs which are going to last into retirement which will pay well.

Rural skills, crafts and anything involving creativity will be the high paid jobs in the future, it's hard to see it now but watch this space...

Potters, painter's, barbours, hedge layers, gardener's, wood carving, sculpture, carpenters and weavers will be well sought after.

I'd suggest anyone happy with their creativity stick with it, because you'll be always able to make money....

The_Conductor

Wanderer78 wrote: »

facts according to whos opinion? so there is 280% of gdp on deposits in irish banks, any idea how much that is in real money? thanks again

The figure was a net 10.2 billion (in February 2018).
This represents a surplus of 10.2 billion over the amount lent out by the banks- and is a loan to deposit ratio of 0.90.
This is an increase of 3.3 billion on 2016.

Ireland's GDP is 336 billion (in 2017).
This is an increase of 34 billion on 2016.

Total household debt in Ireland- is now at 140% of GDP at roughly 475 billion in total.

It has fallen consistently since its high water mark in 2009 (at which point it represented an eye watering 212% of GDP (which was an excess of debt over assets of approx 54 billion).

In other words- we have both paid back and put a net 64.5 billion in household on deposit since 2009- and are on track to increase this by approx 4.2 billion in 2018 on current trends (an increase of approx 900m on 2017 figures).

The manner in which Ireland has consistently reduced household debt- both in real terms, and as a proportion of GDP- is tracking what has been happening in most of the other OECD economies- and is by no means unique to Ireland.

Hope this helps.

ELM327

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Have you tried this conversation with real people? Have a chat with the middle aged or indeed elderly cleaner in your office and explain to them how they should be 'bettering themself'. Please report back on the outcome of the conversation, ideally with photos of your bruises.

And try explaining to the 50-something grandparent who is caring for her parents and her grandchildren (since her child died from an OD) how she should be living in a house-share while she upskills.

It's not my job to tell people what to do though.

Wanderer78

The_Conductor wrote: »

The figure was a net 10.2 billion (in February 2018).
This represents a surplus of 10.2 billion over the amount lent out by the banks- and is a loan to deposit ratio of 0.90.
This is an increase of 3.3 billion on 2016.

Ireland's GDP is 336 billion (in 2017).
This is an increase of 34 billion on 2016.

Total household debt in Ireland- is now at 140% of GDP at roughly 475 billion in total.

It has fallen consistently since its high water mark in 2009 (at which point it represented an eye watering 212% of GDP (which was an excess of debt over assets of approx 54 billion).

In other words- we have both paid back and put a net 64.5 billion in household on deposit since 2009- and are on track to increase this by approx 4.2 billion in 2018 on current trends (an increase of approx 900m on 2017 figures).

The manner in which Ireland has consistently reduced household debt- both in real terms, and as a proportion of GDP- is tracking what has been happening in most of the other OECD economies- and is by no means unique to Ireland.

Hope this helps.

does indeed help, but theres still a lot i dont understand there, i ll have to read it more later. does this mean overall private debt levels equal overall deposit levels in ireland at the moment?

AndrewJRenko

ELM327 wrote: »

It's not my job to tell people what to do though.

You seemed to be quite happy to tell people what to do in your earlier posts. I guess it doesn't seem quite so clever when you have to say it to someone's face.

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

facts according to whos opinion? so there is 280% of gdp on deposits in irish banks, any idea how much that is in real money? thanks again

These are facts .........

"Irish banks now have €10.2bn more on deposit from households than is loaned out into the economy"

"The loan-to-deposit ratio for households stood at 0.90 in February."

...........not opinion

You are the one blabbing on about % of GDP so if you want to quantify that in real money to answer your own question please do. I'm not going to shed any light on the queries you are asking regarding your own comments.

Wanderer78

Augeo wrote: »

These are facts .........

"Irish banks now have €10.2bn more on deposit from households than is loaned out into the economy"

"The loan-to-deposit ratio for households stood at 0.90 in February."

...........not opinion

thank you, now since deposits play little or no part in the creation of loans, how does this actually help with our current and future housing needs?

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

does indeed help, but theres still a lot i dont understand there, i ll have to read it more later. does this mean overall private debt levels equal overall deposit levels in ireland at the moment?

"The loan-to-deposit ratio for households stood at 0.90 in February"

Put simply

overall private debt levels < overall deposit levels in ireland at the moment

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

thank you, now since deposits play little or no part in the creation of loans, how does this actually help with our current and future housing needs?

You were the one who said

Wanderer78 wrote: »

.................we must start recognizing the effects of the financial sector is playing in leading us to this position, effectively privitising our monetary system has failed, it is causing a rapid rise in debt, particularly private debt which has been caused by the rapid rise in asset prices caused by the creation of this credit.

I've shown you that Ireland has more on deposit than private debt and the debt is actually reducing.

So if you reckon a rapid rise in debt is problematic (and you claim it is) then a reduction in private deby must surely be beneficial ?

Also you reckon the creation of loans is also negative so more on deposit and less loans must be beneficial in your book too. I'm not saying it is btw, just illustrating that your views on this are very inconsistent, quite likely due to the fact they aren't your views at all but the views of mil;tiple economic commentators that are quite likely not aligned.

Wanderer78

Augeo wrote: »

You were the one who said




I've shown you that Ireland has more on deposit than private debt and the debt is actually reducing.

So if you reckon a rapid rise in debt is problematic (and you claim it is) then a reduction in private deby must surely be beneficial ?

does it harm the money supply by slowing its 'velocity'?

What do you mean by its 'velocity'?

ELM327

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

You seemed to be quite happy to tell people what to do in your earlier posts. I guess it doesn't seem quite so clever when you have to say it to someone's face.

I wouldnt walk up to the CEO and congratulate him on his life choices, why equally would I commiserate with a cleaner?

AndrewJRenko

ELM327 wrote: »

I wouldnt walk up to the CEO and congratulate him on his life choices, why equally would I commiserate with a cleaner?

Because you're happy to preach on here about what people should do with their lives. Why would you be so reluctant to say it to their faces?

ELM327

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Because you're happy to preach on here about what people should do with their lives. Why would you be so reluctant to say it to their faces?

This is, for the most part, a rational discussion about economics.
Do you go up to randomers and tell them what you post on boards?