Increase in population renting... ticking time bomb?

Wanderer78

tom1ie wrote: »

Yes but if you get robots to build a house you put tradespeople out of work who cant earn a living to take out a reasonable mortgage to buy a house. If no mortgages are taken out banks don’t make money.
It’s a fine balance but at the moment we are too far over the profit for banks and builders end of the see saw.

these arguments and debates are increasing, its clearly obvious if we continue on our current course, the possibility of not enough consumption will occur in order maintain our complex economic systems, we re potentially facing catastrophic economic crash

tom1ie

Wanderer78 wrote: »

these arguments and debates are increasing, its clearly obvious if we continue on our current course, the possibility of not enough consumption will occur in order maintain our complex economic systems, we re potentially facing catastrophic economic crash

It’s a scary thought but I don’t think it’ll effect the masses for another while. One things for sure, if ftb’s and trader users are going out buying houses by incurring massive debt, it will be catastrophic if people loose there jobs to automation and/or interest rates take a hike.

As recently as 1981 interest rates were at 20%!

Not enough consumption? Ireland has a housing shortage and the population is expected to grow significantly in the coming decades.

On an international stage for everyone saying we are likely to crash soon you have folk pointing out that we are only entering the point where stocks are appealing based on dividends and appealing P/E ratios etc.

You'll always have folk being the prophecy of financial Armageddon.....

The 20% interest rates seen in Ireland back in the day won't be repeated unless we leave the EU...sine folk advocate that.

Wanderer78

Augeo wrote: »

Not enough consumption? Ireland has a housing shortage and the population is expected to grow significantly in the coming decades.

On an international stage for everyone saying we are likely to crash soon you have folk pointing out that we are only entering the point where stocks are appealing based on dividends and appealing P/E ratios etc.

You'll always have folk being the prophecy of financial Armageddon.....

The 20% interest rates seen in Ireland back in the day won't be repeated unless we leave the EU...sine folk advocate that.

its important to look at a much wider picture, it can be clearly seen that younger generations are using more and more of their income on their housing needs, and income is not rising as quick as this increasing cost of housing, this is simply unsustainable, then of course we have the potential issues of automation, ai etc etc. if we dont come up with ways of spreading wealth more evenly, we could potentially end up in serious trouble.

what happens if the eu collapses?

4068ac1elhodqr

tom1ie wrote: »

Yes but if you get robots to build a house you put tradespeople out of work who cant earn a living to take out a reasonable mortgage to buy a house. If no mortgages are taken out banks don’t make money. It’s a fine balance but at the moment we are too far over the profit for banks and builders end of the see saw.

Welcome to the 4th Industrial Reveloution. Neither process efficiency nor kazian practices of improvement, are roll back options I.e. you can't hold back the future.

Luckily amongst the 50% of people (that will be loosing their current jobs by 2030), complex dexterous tasks such as those plumbers perform are 'fairly' safe. Repetitive block layers, no so much.

The future will be a mix of the 'gig-economy' and UBI allowances, which only increases the need for the fast provision of cheaper, more efficient housing. If that means autonomous systems and robots churning out prefab units, for rent or short leases, so be it.

tom1ie

Augeo wrote: »

Not enough consumption? Ireland has a housing shortage and the population is expected to grow significantly in the coming decades.

On an international stage for everyone saying we are likely to crash soon you have folk pointing out that we are only entering the point where stocks are appealing based on dividends and appealing P/E ratios etc.

You'll always have folk being the prophecy of financial Armageddon.....

The 20% interest rates seen in Ireland back in the day won't be repeated unless we leave the EU...sine folk advocate that.

Yes but it’s massive consumption that is taking on massive debt. I’m fully aware of the demand and projected demand but enslaving that demand to massive debt is not the answer.
That’s why I’m advocating affordable housing as outlined in my previous posts.
I know 20% will never be seen again unless as you say we pull out of the eu or the eu collapses, but mortgages are quite low at the minute, 2.75 on var and 2.3 on fixed are available. What will happen if the eu put interest rates up by say 2% over 5 years. On a 500000 mortgage that’s a massive hit.

tom1ie

Lamar Icy Gill wrote: »

Welcome to the 4th Industrial Reveloution. Neither process efficiency nor kazian practices of improvement, are roll back options I.e. you can't hold back the future.

Luckily amongst the 50% of people (that will be loosing their current jobs by 2030), complex dexterous tasks such as those plumbers perform are 'fairly' safe. Repetitive block layers, no so much.

The future will be a mix of the 'gig-economy' and UBI allowances, which only increases the need for the fast provision of cheaper, more efficient housing. If that means autonomous systems and robots churning out prefab units, for rent or short leases, so be it.

Ah grand so, and how do the people who have been put out of a job by robots earn money? Welfare? Guess who pays that. I’ll give you a clue, it’s not the robots.

4068ac1elhodqr

tom1ie wrote: »

Ah grand so, and how do the people who have been put out of a job by robots earn money? Welfare? Guess who pays that. I’ll give you a clue, it’s not the robots.

UBI.

Also part of the make-up of this new gig-economy is the need for constant never-ending upskilling, training and cross-training. The concept of the 'french luncbreak' has now ceased, even in Paris. Every task will be micro-managed, efficent and accountable.

Thanks to globalisaiton if someone in the Jarkata can provide a service better and faster than someone in the West, they 'will' get that gig.

Bear in mind China by 2060 may well be 'twice' as powerful as the US or Europe. Not only in terms of GDP, but military, politcally or otherwise.

So.. if you want a house in the Western world it must be build twice as cheap, twice as fast and more clever (autonomous systems) than is currently. If that means utilising robots, so be it.

Wanderer78

Lamar Icy Gill wrote: »

UBI.

Also part of the make-up of this new gig-economy is the need for constant never-ending upskilling, training and cross-training. The concept of the 'french luncbreak' has now ceased, even in Paris. Every task will be micro-managed, efficent and accountable.

Thanks to globalisaiton if someone in the Jarkata can provide a service better and faster than someone in the West, they 'will' get that gig.

Bear in mind China by 2060 may well be 'twice' as powerful as the US or Europe. Not only in terms of GDP, but military, politcally or otherwise.

So.. if you want a house in the Western world it must be build twice as cheap, twice as fast and more clever (autonomous systems) than is currently. If that means utilising robots, so be it.

will globalization come to an abrupt ending? whos actually gaining from it?

tom1ie

Lamar Icy Gill wrote: »

UBI.

Also part of the make-up of this new gig-economy is the need for constant never-ending upskilling, training and cross-training. The concept of the 'french luncbreak' has now ceased, even in Paris. Every task will be micro-managed, efficent and accountable.

Thanks to globalisaiton if someone in the Jarkata can provide a service better and faster than someone in the West, they 'will' get that gig.

Bear in mind China by 2060 may well be 'twice' as powerful as the US or Europe. Not only in terms of GDP, but military, politcally or otherwise.

So.. if you want a house in the Western world it must be build twice as cheap, twice as fast and more clever (autonomous systems) than is currently. If that means utilising robots, so be it.

Pardon my ignorance what’s ubi?
Again I’ll ask how do you support the people that don’t want to or can’t upskill?

4068ac1elhodqr

tom1ie wrote: »

Pardon my ignorance what’s ubi?
Again I’ll ask how do you support the people that don’t want to or can’t upskill?

Answer. UBI

A basic income, also called basic income guarantee, universal basic income (UBI), basic living stipend (BLS) or universal demogrant. A type of program in which citizens (or permanent residents) of a country may receive a regular sum of money from the government. Thanks to increasing standards of (basic) living 'everyone' (working or not) will be handed e.g. €1,500pm to live on, no other benefits will be paid regardless of assesment or any others needs. This ensures 98% of people are outside of 'poverty' and more able to seek 'gigs'.

It removes the red-tape and hassle associated with 'gig' work such as part-time, occasional or random nixers. You only pay taxes once over a higher bracket, but yes taxes will be higher for those higher up on the ladder.

The people who still don't want to work just don't get shinny things, but are not in 'poverty' They won't get free houses, no mortages in desirable areas, but can certainly budget to rent in less expensive areas.
If they want to work part-time or whatever they can, and keep this on top of their UBI payment regardless.

tom1ie

Lamar Icy Gill wrote: »

Answer. UBI

A basic income, also called basic income guarantee, universal basic income (UBI), basic living stipend (BLS) or universal demogrant. A type of program in which citizens (or permanent residents) of a country may receive a regular sum of money from the government. Thanks to increasing standards of (basic) living 'everyone' (working or not) will be handed e.g. €1,500pm to live on, no other benefits will be paid regardless of assesment or any others needs. This ensures 98% of people are outside of 'poverty' and more able to seek 'gigs'.

It removes the red-tape and hassle associated with 'gig' work such as part-time, occasional or random nixers. You only pay taxes once over a higher bracket, but yes taxes will be higher for those higher up on the ladder.

The people who still don't want to work just don't get shinny things, but are not in 'poverty' They won't get free houses, no mortages in desirable areas, but can certainly budget to rent in less expensive areas.
If they want to work part-time or whatever they can, and keep this on top of their UBI payment regardless.

So....... all the people who get made redundant and don’t upskill get a payment of 1500 pm which won’t cover rent in Dublin cc at the presenr moment let alone medicine clothes food etc.
So we develop ghettos.
This sounds like the plot of elysium!

tom1ie

tom1ie wrote: »

....
I know 20% will never be seen again unless as you say we pull out of the eu or the eu collapses, but mortgages are quite low at the minute, 2.75 on var and 2.3 on fixed are available. What will happen if the eu put interest rates up by say 2% over 5 years. On a 500000 mortgage that’s a massive hit.

People paid over 4% not so long ago.
Most folk on 500k mortgages are involved in jobs that won't be easy to automate.

I project managed a small project that replaced 3 people (1 per shift) doing a very very trivial task. Financially it made little sense.

6 axis robots etc are around years and still very expensive

Folks are afraid of the progress automation can deliver, there's always opportunities.

tom1ie

Augeo wrote: »

People paid over 4% not so long ago.
Most folk on 500k mortgages are involved in jobs that won't be easy to automate.

I project managed a small project that replaced 3 people (1 per shift) doing a very very trivial task. Financially it made little sense.

6 axis robots etc are around years and still very expensive

Folks are afraid of the progress automation can deliver, there's always opportunities.

3 bed houses in Dublin are going for 500000 and that’d be people that are engineers accountants civil servants. All jobs that can be automated. All jobs where people can be adversely effected by an economic downturn

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

its important to look at a much wider picture, it can be clearly seen that younger generations are using more and more of their income on their housing needs, and income is not rising as quick as this increasing cost of housing, this is simply unsustainable, then of course we have the potential issues .....

what happens if the eu collapses?

Rising house prices if unsustainable will stop rising or fall. The key is in the word, unsustainable

What if the EU collapses? You remind me of a problem solving technique, the 5 whys. The answer to every scenario I don't know.

What do the folk you follow on various platforms reckon will happen if the EU collapses? I'd say the opposite of that is likely
Again... financial Armageddon has been just around the corner since the internet was a child depending who you listen to.

4068ac1elhodqr

tom1ie wrote: »

So....... all the people who get made redundant and don’t upskill get a payment of 1500 pm which won’t cover rent in Dublin cc at the presenr moment let alone medicine clothes food etc.
So we develop ghettos. This sounds like the plot of elysium!

A community with zero poverty, thanks to UBI isn't a 'ghetto'.

Yes, if you can't afford to live in premium location you move elsewhere and enjoy a much better lifestyle with your increased free money.

tom1ie

tom1ie wrote: »

3 bed houses in Dublin are going for 500000 and that’d be people that are engineers accountants civil servants. All jobs that can be automated. All jobs where people can be adversely effected by an economic downturn

I think there's a tiny minority buying 3 bed homes for 500k in Dublin.

It's easy to automate what engineering roles?

It's likely easy to automate desk jockey civil servant roles but they won't be let go anyway.

Accountancy at lower levels is a likely one, accounting techs etc...not greatly paid anyway.

tom1ie

Lamar Icy Gill wrote: »

A community with zero poverty, thanks to UBI isn't a 'ghetto'.

Yes, if you can't afford to live in premium location you move elsewhere and enjoy a much better lifestyle with your increased free money.

Again. Who pays for the free money?
Do u think 1500 pm would b enough?

4068ac1elhodqr

tom1ie wrote: »

Again. Who pays for the free money?
Do u think 1500 pm would b enough?

Taxes for rich and and end to corporate tax 'efficency methods'.

1,500 is an example, but it would be more than the average current benefits. The national productivity boost alone, would also cover cost increases.

If it means Joe or Jane do an extra 8hrs work (gig) per week they wouldn't have done due to fear of loosing all their benefits, they almost certainly will.

tom1ie

Lamar Icy Gill wrote: »

Taxes for rich and and end to corporate tax 'efficency methods'.

1,500 is an example, but it would be more than the average current benefits. The national productivity boost alone, would also cover cost increases.

If it means Joe or Jane do an extra 8hrs work (gig) per week they wouldn't have done due to fear of loosing all their benefits, they almost certainly will.

Well I don’t know what the future will bring but I’m talking about the current problems we have and how certain fairly easy steps can be taken to help solve the problem.
Your solving a problem we don’t have yet.

4068ac1elhodqr

tom1ie wrote: »

Well I don’t know what the future will bring but I’m talking about the current problems we have and how certain fairly easy steps can be taken to help solve the problem.
Your solving a problem we don’t have yet.

But will have.

There is no quick n' easy soultion to the current issues, and any method will take 5-10yrs+ to implement, just to 'slightly' address it.

Nevermind the 4thIR by 2030,
or preparing for +1m folks by 2040.

tom1ie

Lamar Icy Gill wrote: »

But will have.

There is no quick n' easy soultion to the current issues, and any method will take 5-10yrs+ to implement, just to 'slightly' address it.

Nevermind the 4thIR by 2030,
or preparing for +1m folks by 2040.

4th IR by 2030? Based on what?

4068ac1elhodqr

tom1ie wrote: »

4th IR by 2030? Based on what?

2030 is apex of Wave 3 of the 4th IR, we're currently on/in wave 1.

tom1ie

Lamar Icy Gill wrote: »

2030 is apex of Wave 3 of the 4th IR, we're currently on/in wave 1.

Where the hell are you getting this stuff from? Post some sources please.

4068ac1elhodqr

tom1ie wrote: »

Where the hell are you getting this stuff from? Post some sources please.

Please educate yourself, this is all very common knowledge (not sci-fi), already discussed extensively in the public domain, and has been for some time now.

Start off with the tone of delivery last year from the UK's Hammond (Chancellor of the Exchequer) at their 2017 conference regarding their preperations for the 4thIR.

Only last month Pres. Higgins warned of the coming 'gig-economy'.

Read the numerous reports from Forbes, World Bank, PWC etc etc.

https://www.pwc.co.uk/services/economics-policy/insights/the-impact-of-automation-on-jobs.html

It's likely housing will become 'rent orientated', due to income insecurity. However UBI may help alleviate that slightly.

professore

UBI will just mean prices will rise to take all the UBI, especially rent. This is already happening as rent allowance puts a floor on rents.

Any discussion I've seen puts UBI at a lower rate than our social welfare payments, which are scrapped. It's paid for by removing all the admin and costs around social welfare (which wouldn't work here as the public servants can't be fired) coupled with extra taxes on earned income.

Having said all that I think it's a good idea, to incentivise work. Biggest problem is whether there will be enough work to go round.

Houses will be affordable in a generation as the population collapses. This is the biggest threat facing most of the world economies in the coming decades, population collapse and lots of old people rather than a booming demand for houses. This also might free up more work of course that can't be automated. While people are still customers you need people to serve them as it will take a long time for AI to come up with something to make sense of the wants of an average illogical human.

zom

professore wrote: »

Houses will be affordable in a generation as the population collapses.

Nonsense - go and see Bulgaria. They have big problem with falling demographics although property prices are growing and growing...

Topgear on Dave

I'm an engineer working in electronics and work with robotics quite a lot.

I am not for a minute expecting them to take over to the point where we can all put our feet up and draw a universal income from the government. They have their uses but there will always be work to be done.

Folks have moved on from thinking robots will take the jobs to thinking AI will.

So the sh1t shovellers are now safe ish (until 3D printing becomes mainstream in the building game, lol ) but the desk jockeys are now the ones at risk. Along with van, truck & taxi drivers of course.

When one doomsday doesn't happen they line up a few more to talk about.

Wanderer78

Augeo wrote:

When one doomsday doesn't happen they line up a few more to talk about.

Evidence is growing though that the wealth that has been and is being created from our economic systems is not trickling down as has been projected, but the majority of it is in fact trickling up via these complex systems and processes, but what does seem to be trickling down is the debts that have been created