Is a Bad Brexit good for Ireland?

LuckyLloyd

So no evidence.

WinnyThePoo

Help!!!! wrote: »

Irish people are pro Europe, yes.... pro EU, not so much anymore.
There is a growing number of EU sceptics. We joined for a single market, not an EU army, not to be told that we must raise out corporation tax because its unfair to Germany/France etc

We are Pro Eu. There's no appetite for the right wing politics here. Leaving the EU would be economic suicide as one of the posters mentioned above.

megaten

Nope, the best outcome for Ireland is UK staying as close to the stars quo as much as possible. The Brexit and Ireland book wen't though multiple industries and how they're specialised towards the English market and cannot easily pivot.

Help!!!!

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Evidence please.

Speaking to people around the country, Dublin may be pro EU. There are many outside that are not so much

FrancieBrady

Help!!!! wrote: »

Maybe if you left Dublin you would not hear the from the same EU echo chamber
Outside of Dublin there are many EU sceptics

I'm outside it. Where are the stats for euro sceptics outside Dublin? Interested.

Help!!!!

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

So no evidence.

Have you proof that I'm wrong?

Help!!!!

WinnyThePoo wrote: »

We are Pro Eu. There's no appetite for the right wing politics here. Leaving the EU would be economic suicide as one of the posters mentioned above.

Why does not being pro EU make you right wing?

Help!!!!

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I'm outside it. Where are the stats for euro sceptics outside Dublin? Interested.

No MSM or NGO is going to go out to find stats for anti EU. I guess you will just have to wait & see

ArmaniJeanss

Help!!!! wrote: »

Speaking to people around the country, Dublin may be pro EU. There are many outside that are not so much

This is strikingly similar to our last two referendums on SSM and the 8th, where we were all apparently in our Dublin-centric media echo-chamber, not realising how the dramatically different opinion down the country would mean a shock result.

keane2097

Help!!!! wrote: »

Have you proof that I'm wrong?

I bet you don't believe polls, but sure anyway.

The number of those who believe Ireland should follow the United Kingdom out of the European Union has shown a sharp and continuing decline.

Just one in nine voters say Ireland should quit the EU, down from nearly three times that level five years ago, a new poll for the European Movement in Ireland has found.

While 29 per cent believed in 2013 Ireland should leave the union if the UK left, the figure is down now to 11 per cent – apparently in reaction to the experience of Brexit.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/more-than-90-of-irish-people-want-to-stay-in-eu-poll-reveals-1.3488112

Charles Babbage

The best thing for Ireland is lots of threats of bad Brexit, but no follow through. That way some companies will still move to Ireland, but trade won't suffer much.

Bit cynical

listermint wrote: »

mere seconds to find that information

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42977967

It sounds like you dont believe it.

Why? i dont know as the evidence is there already they are losing currently circa £300 Million per week. ~(and thats now)

The problem with that is that it only shows the timescale for the UK figure. Where is the corresponding timescale for the Irish figure?

This is important because a lot of people base their support of the EU line on the notion that Ireland won't suffer significantly in proportion to the UK. I saw one post on the other thread suggesting that the North would want to join the South after brexit on the basis that the South would be booming according to that poster.

listermint

Bit cynical wrote: »

The problem with that is that it only shows the timescale for the UK figure. Where is the corresponding timescale for the Irish figure?

This is important because a lot of people base their support of the EU line on the notion that Ireland won't suffer significantly in proportion to the UK. I saw one post on the other thread suggesting that the North would want to join the South after brexit on the basis that the South would be booming according to that poster.

it is booming right now, in fact its got the largest growth in the EU, which is not agriculture related.

we are up around 6%. brexit could indeed hit us about 1-2% a figure we are well aware of.

You still seem to assume we will be worse off and it doesnt matter what facts you are given to country your view you are enjoying your own opinion.

The long and short of it is, We are the EU. The EU is us and we are better off for it.

Bit cynical

listermint wrote: »

it is booming right now, in fact its got the largest growth in the EU, which is not agriculture related.

we are up around 6%. brexit could indeed hit us about 1-2% a figure we are well aware of.

You still seem to assume we will be worse off and it doesnt matter what facts you are given to country your view you are enjoying your own opinion.

The long and short of it is, We are the EU. The EU is us and we are better off for it.

Again, over what timescale is the 1-2% figure?

LuckyLloyd

Help!!!! wrote: »

Have you proof that I'm wrong?

https://www.google.ie/amp/www.thejournal.ie/ireland-leave-eu-poll-february-2018-3836085-Feb2018/%3famp=1

Yes

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Can we stay on the topic of whether or not a bad Brexit would be bad for Ireland please. Anyone wishing to discuss whether Ireland should leave is welcome to start a new thread.

listermint

Bit cynical wrote: »

Again, over what timescale is the 1-2% figure?

A week,

A Day

A month


What do you want me to say, who knows!?

Do you can you give us any figures, (you have yet to do so btw)

Bit cynical

listermint wrote: »

A week,

A Day

A month


What do you want me to say, who knows!?

Do you can you give us any figures, (you have yet to do so btw)

Well the BBC article that you linked mentioned 15 years. The Irish figure might just be for the first year.

Here's a chart from a report produced by the EU. From this we see that the overall impact will be as great if not greater than that for the UK over the long run based on various scenarios. The ESRI produced similar figures a couple of years ago.

listermint

Bit cynical wrote: »

Well the BBC article that you linked mentioned 15 years. The Irish figure might just be for the first year.

Here's a chart from a report produced by the EU. From this we see that the overall impact will be as great if not greater than that for the UK over the long run based on various scenarios. The ESRI produced similar figures a couple of years ago.

Ireland isnt losing access to the European market, Ireland will not have to go off to far and wide seeking new deals. They will be local.

Ireland will be much better off than the UK , and we have been prepping for this nonsense since last year.

If you are peddling the line that we will be worse off than the UK in some vane attempt for Ireland to lobby on behalf of the UK to the EU then that is a fallacy

Bit cynical

listermint wrote: »

Ireland isnt losing access to the European market, Ireland will not have to go off to far and wide seeking new deals. They will be local.

Ireland will be much better off than the UK , and we have been prepping for this nonsense since last year.

If you are peddling the line that we will be worse off than the UK in some vane attempt for Ireland to lobby on behalf of the UK to the EU then that is a fallacy

Yet the EU report suggest that Ireland pays an economic price much much the same as the UK for Brexit. You were asking for figures. Shall I try to find the ESRI report?

Zubeneschamali

Bit cynical wrote: »

Yet the EU report suggest that Ireland pays an economic price much much the same as the UK for Brexit. You were asking for figures. Shall I try to find the ESRI report?

2.25 is supposed to be the pessimistic UK figure by 2030? Pull the other one.

The UK government were saying 6% was pessimistic before the referendum, but they meant an organized withdrawal.

Crashout next March without preparation will cost them more than 2% just next March, never mind by 2030.

Bit cynical

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

2.25 is supposed to be the pessimistic UK figure by 2030? Pull the other one.

The UK government were saying 6% was pessimistic before the referendum, but they meant an organized withdrawal.

Crashout next March without preparation will cost them more than 2% just next March, never mind by 2030.

I agree. There will be significant short term disruption but remember that the forecast is over a period up to 2020.

However I'm just trying to answer the OP's question about the impact on Ireland. I'm not an economist so I have to go on what the economic reports say.

Madd Finn

Help!!!! wrote: »

Unfortunately Varadkar & Coveney are all out for punishing the UK

Explain, pray, the logic and/or evidence underlying that conclusion.

you don't have to believe everything the deranged Eoghan Harris writes on the subject, you know. Unless of course......;)

Bit cynical

Madd Finn wrote: »

Explain, pray, the logic and/or evidence underlying that conclusion.

you don't have to believe everything the deranged Eoghan Harris writes on the subject, you know. Unless of course......;)

Personally I think it is more the EU out to punish the UK and Ireland more or less has to go along with it, at least in public.

Madd Finn

Help!!!! wrote: »

I for one would be keen to see the break up of the EU in its present form. We signed up for a single market not to be told by those in Brussels how our country should be run

Even the British government in its first White Paper on Brexit (after the vote) said "Parliament has remained sovereign throughout our membership to the EU" although, it added, some people "may not have felt that".

THat's HM Government itself, sworn to deliver on the referendum result demanded by its electorate.

Brussels does not "tell us how our country should be run" It sets ground rules on inter (and indeed extra) community trade, and issues very general directives on matters like environmental policy and workers rights but all essential legislation is very much in the hands of individual sovereign governments.

If some of the more disgruntled Brits (and it appears quite a few disgruntled Paddies as well) felt that the reason for their general happiness was a "feeling" that they were being told what to do in every aspect of their lives by a bunch of "unelected Brussels bureaucrats" then maybe what they need is a good of old-fashioned peppery advice from a renowned right winger like Ben Shapiro who is fond of the adage "the facts don't care about your feelings!"

The EU is the best model yet for peaceful co-existence between European nations. A major hostile rival (which Britain is showing signs of becoming) is a threat to all that is good about Europe.

Which is not the same as saying that everything about Europe is good. But Brexiteers are bad. Very very bad!!!

ancapailldorcha

Off topic posts deleted. Posters wanting to discuss the merits of Ireland leaving the EU are welcome to start a new thread.

briany

Madd Finn wrote: »

The EU is the best model yet for peaceful co-existence between European nations. A major hostile rival (which Britain is showing signs of becoming) is a threat to all that is good about Europe.

When people advocate against the EU, it shows a certain ignorance about world politics. As it stands today, there are powers with spheres of influence like the USA, China and Russia. When the Trump's USA and Putin's Russia speak favourably about a weakening EU, they're not championing European freedom - they're attempting to create ground to extend their influence upon. It's funny to me when someone like Farage talks about how leaving the EU will be great on one hand, and on the other talks about getting into bed with the United States. Does he think that will in any way be a relationship of equals?

As many have stated, the EU is not perfect, but pondering the alternatives would keep you awake at night.

Jim2007

Help!!!! wrote: »

Well wouldn't it have been better to try rather than come out all guns blazing 'punish them'?
I bet we would have gotten a better deal than the one we end up with

Based on your posts you obviously got your own little agenda going here, but is not based on reality.

Nobody has set out to punish the UK, there is no need to because they are doing it to themselves, by their failure to understand how the EU works and the consequences of their decisions. The EU is a rule based organization and has done nothing but seek to follow the agreed rules and procedures.

Get out A50 and read it. It very clearly states the every treaty right and obligation terminates with the invocation of A50, that means out of everything from pets passports to EURTAOM.

And as for your betting about a better deal, if you do another bit of digging in the treaties while you have them out, you’ll understand why there is not the remotest possibility of that.

badtoro

Help!!!! wrote: »

Speaking to people around the country, Dublin may be pro EU. There are many outside that are not so much

I'm as far outside Dublin as you can get, I'd agree there are euro sceptics. Some have decent gripes like fishermen, others are tbh ignorant, but they still get to vote! I am pro EU more because it's not in my interests to let Dublin have 100% say in my life than anything else. We are a corrupt country, I like having another level to go to if necessary.

oscarBravo

briany wrote: »

As many have stated, the EU is not perfect, but...

It is a phrase I've seen a lot lately. And, while it's true (in fact, it's basically a truism - who has ever claimed that the EU is perfect?), it's actually a slightly strange thing to have to say.

What would a "perfect" EU even look like? Is there an optimum version of the EU that would make every EU citizen completely happy? The question basically answers itself.

Everyone who responds to an anti-EU screed feels the need to defensively preface their remarks with something like "there are a lot of areas where the EU could improve, but..." - but are there, really? That is to say: there are areas where I think the EU could better conform to my personal ideals, but if it were to change to suit me, it would suit other people less, and vice versa.

The EU is a construct of that most implausible of things: a consensus between half a billion people. The idea of it being "perfect" is so inherently ridiculous that nobody should ever have to reflexively defend the fact that it isn't.

What the EU definitely is, is better than the alternative - except by one metric, and that's the fetishisation of national sovereignty.