So Michael D IS running again!

Sam Russell

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Kenny said: He isn't entitled to some of them when he is sitting as President.

Where are you getting your info from. Not doubting what you are saying, just want to know what it is based on.

No mention of any restriction on drawing down pension in any way.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/just-how-are-ministers-pensions-worked-out-1.559289

There are restrictions on when the pension can be drawn down by age but MDH is beyond those ages now, and when he was first elected.

An Ciarraioch

Red C poll out this weekend, though as per usual, only the party political figures will appear online today.

An Ciarraioch

Poll fieldwork was done from the 11th-17th, so should capture Casey impact (story was published on Monday the 15th).

road_high

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Poll fieldwork was done from the 11th-17th, so should capture Casey impact (story was published on Monday the 15th).

Really looking forward with anticipation to that one, everyone I speak is voting Casey

hotmail.com

Casey all upset because of the criticism he is getting.

Once again, these types are well able to dish it out and can't take it.

road_high

hotmail.com wrote: »

Casey all upset because of the criticism he is getting.

Once again, these types are well able to dish it out and can't take it.

Don’t think he’s upset. Just not used to the happy clappy liberals backlash when someone had the audacity to question their view of the world.

Tell me how

road_high wrote: »

Really looking forward with anticipation to that one, everyone I speak is voting Casey

Not much indication on todays poll of the swing many expected.

Red C Poll

The Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes poll suggests Mr Higgins is on 69%, 58 points ahead of his nearest rival Sean Gallagher who is on 11%.

Sinn Féin candidate Liadh Ní Riada is on 7%, one point ahead of Joan Freeman on 6%.

Gavin Duffy is on 4% and Peter Casey is on 2%.


....................................

The poll was conducted from 5 October to 16 October in a series of face-to-face interviews with 930 voters

hotmail.com

road_high wrote:

Don’t think he’s upset. Just not used to the happy clappy liberals backlash when someone had the audacity to question their view of the world.

He seems very upset that people have the audacity to criticise him comments. You don't see the irony?

humberklog

Tell me how wrote: »

Not much indication on todays poll of the swing many expected.

Red C Poll

Also this line though...


The poll was conducted before Mr Casey's controversial comments about members of the travelling community, and so will not reflect any changes in his support which may occur as a result of those remarks.

So that's a bit confusing.

Tell me how

humberklog wrote: »

Also this line though...


The poll was conducted before Mr Casey's controversial comments about members of the travelling community, and so will not reflect any changes in his support which may occur as a result of those remarks.

So that's a bit confusing.

I actually missed that bit. I heard them discuss it on Newstalk news at 18:00 and they said it was the first poll since he made his comments. I understood this to mean that the results of the poll reflected the opinion on his comments. Probably my mistake there.

He made the comments on the 14th and they became widely discussed on the 15th. Maybe some on the poll gave their answer after the news had broken but it is likely most didn't.

An Ciarraioch

Tell me how wrote: »

humberklog wrote: »

Also this line though...


The poll was conducted before Mr Casey's controversial comments about members of the travelling community, and so will not reflect any changes in his support which may occur as a result of those remarks.

So that's a bit confusing.

I actually missed that bit. I heard them discuss it on Newstalk news at 18:00 and they said it was the first poll since he made his comments. I understood this to mean that the results of the poll reflected the opinion on his comments. Probably my mistake there.

He made the comments on the 14th and they became widely discussed on the 15th. Maybe some on the poll gave their answer after the news had broken but it is likely most didn't.

Mind you, given there's highly unlikely to be any crossover between MDH and Casey supporters, any gain he does get will merely cannibalise the other Dragons.

pixelburp

Frankly it'd want to be a record breaking swing upwards to come anywhere near Higgins' figures. 2% to the 40% or so needed to become a leading candidate seems ... fantastically unlikely. Despite what some may insist, the polls generally get it right (and yes, before he's mentioned, Trump had a 1 in 4,5 chance - which was always still a chance).

Beechwoodspark

https://www.bbc.com/ne...nd-politics-45928722

PSNI set the record straight and deny Higgins story that they were involved in giving security advice to use the jet to Belfast.

Tell me how

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Mind you, given there's highly unlikely to be any crossover between MDH and Casey supporters, any gain he does get will merely cannibalise the other Dragons.

Agree. But have head from some that they think and want Michael D to win, they are planning on voting on Peter to indicate agreement with his position. Not an approach I personally agree with but curious if there are more like this.

pixelburp wrote: »

Frankly it'd want to be a record breaking swing upwards to come anywhere near Higgins' figures. 2% to the 40% or so needed to become a leading candidate seems ... fantastically unlikely. Despite what some may insist, the polls generally get it right (and yes, before he's mentioned, Trump had a 1 in 4,5 chance - which was always still a chance).

I'm more interested in seeing if there is a sizable swing which may influence future commentary on the topic he mentioned.

If he sees a swing which takes him from last place upwards, it is possible some General Election candidates will voice similar views at next opportunity.

Sycamore Tree

You know I reckon the people being polled might be too embarrassed to select Casey. It's the same as saying "I don't like tinkers either".
But they might be way more inclined to vote for Casey in a secret ballot.

pixelburp

Good grief, and back we come to the silent majority theory. Hey only a few more days til we know just how silent they are. They didn't appear for the marriage and 8th votes, biding their time perhaps? Or maybe the reason why Casey isn't shooting up the polls is because a, most folk know a spoofer and chancer when the spot one, and b, in the cold light of day Travellers simply aren't on peoples' list of issues to vote on as much as people on the Internet might insist.

L1011

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

You know I reckon the people being polled might be too embarrassed to select Casey. It's the same as saying "I don't like tinkers either".
But they might be way more inclined to vote for Casey in a secret ballot.

The marriage and 8th referendums show that the "silent majority" we're warned about are in fact the bloody loud minority.

We also don't really have "shy" voters for any party here; although SFs repeated undershoots of polling show they've also got loud supporters.

I think people are projecting too much onto Casey. I stated very early on in the election to friends "Don't underestimate how many will vote for Trump". While people dismissed him, his speeches where essentially "soundbites" - little twitter phrases, that's all. I scratched my head wondering why he was alienating whole sections of American society with these soundbites. Until i discovered that a lot of ethnicities in America don't vote. And then it made sense.

But Ireland is not America. And the President in Ireland has a different role than The President in USA. And Irish people like their Irish President to be a certain person. And Peter Casey is certainly not that person.

Assuming MDH will get at least 51% of first preference votes, I don't think Casey will get much more than 5% of the final first preference votes- and that's pushing it. He knows he's made a fool of himself. Out of the 3 Dragons, I actually liked his original campaign focus on bringing the diaspora together- he is after all an International businessman. He could have been good at that role- But no, he went completely off the wall.

Retire from the election Peter. It's the only decent thing to do at this point.

Hurrache

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

You know I reckon the people being polled might be too embarrassed to select Casey. It's the same as saying "I don't like tinkers either".
But they might be way more inclined to vote for Casey in a secret ballot.

Such polls are usually secret anyway, they don't know you.

I used to be on a panel until my wife answered one day and gave out as she thought it was a spam call, not realising I had agreed to them long ago and regularly took part in different polls and surveys until that point.

Never heard from them again. She was quite effect at ending that.

Royal Legend

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/ne...nd-politics-45928722

PSNI set the record straight and deny Higgins story that they were involved in giving security advice to use the jet to Belfast.

Ssssshhhhh

Move along, nothing to see here, don't dare question MDH

Maybe the PSNI gave security advice to use the car to Derry, or maybe he drove to Derry and sent the jet as a diversion

blanch152

richiepurgas wrote: »

He would be entitled to draw down his Oireachtas pension while serving as president but chose not to do so as well as taking a pay cut as president of over 20%.
I remember reading one time about the late FF MEP Neil Blaney who was both an MEP and TD at the same time for a number of years as well as drawing down a pension from his time as government minister. He was tackled about it at a press conference and gave a "cos I'm worth it" type of answer.

Higgins did not take a pay cut as President. Mary McAleese took a voluntary pay cut and Higgins and the other candidates were shamed into saying they would honour it.

blanch152

blanch152 wrote: »

Higgins did not take a pay cut as President. Mary McAleese took a voluntary pay cut and Higgins and the other candidates were shamed into saying they would honour it.

Who says?

Skid X

This latest Sunday Times / B&A poll , it says "The poll was conducted from 5 October to 16 October in a series of face-to-face interviews with 930 voters." https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/1020/1005541-presidential-poll/

How does it take 12 days to gather 930 responses?

12 days is far too long to run a poll, these surveys are meant to be a snapshot of opinion.

This thing contains responses given on October 5th, 16 days is a long time in politics.

An Ciarraioch

blanch152 wrote: »

richiepurgas wrote: »

He would be entitled to draw down his Oireachtas pension while serving as president but chose not to do so as well as taking a pay cut as president of over 20%.
I remember reading one time about the late FF MEP Neil Blaney who was both an MEP and TD at the same time for a number of years as well as drawing down a pension from his time as government minister. He was tackled about it at a press conference and gave a "cos I'm worth it" type of answer.

Higgins did not take a pay cut as President. Mary McAleese took a voluntary pay cut and Higgins and the other candidates were shamed into saying they would honour it.

Or perhaps, the 2011 election occurred when the Troika were in Dublin, so candidates had no problem with taking a pay cut, in keeping with austerity?

blanch152

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Or perhaps, the 2011 election occurred when the Troika were in Dublin, so candidates had no problem with taking a pay cut, in keeping with austerity?

Either way, the revisionism that suggests it was some grand gesture of Higgins is wrong.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Higgins did not take a pay cut as President. Mary McAleese took a voluntary pay cut and Higgins and the other candidates were shamed into saying they would honour it.

Who shamed him?
Would it not be equally correct to say that he agreed it should be cut?

Has he looked for it to be increased again like other greedy public servants I wonder?

Sam Russell

blanch152 wrote: »

Either way, the revisionism that suggests it was some grand gesture of Higgins is wrong.

I think MDH had the option to revert to the higher amount but chose to continue as his predecessor.

He chose not to collect his Dail pensions, which he considered the correct hing to do.

richiepurgas

blanch152 wrote: »

Either way, the revisionism that suggests it was some grand gesture of Higgins is wrong.

He would be on extremely solid ground legally had he insisted on taking the full salary.
He might even have been tempted to do a Dessie Ellis (SF) on it and pretend he was not on full salary.
But he didn't.

McMurphy

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/ne...nd-politics-45928722

PSNI set the record straight and deny Higgins story that they were involved in giving security advice to use the jet to Belfast.

This could be the rock he perishes on.

He was naive if he thought that that lie was ever gonna fly for long, of course the security forces from that part of the island were going to dispute that line.

Higgins proving that he's no different than the rest of them with his snout in the trough.

I didn't care less either way for him to be President until this story broke during the debate.

Casey is getting my number 1 now, he at least is pointing out what the rest of us can see - the President has no clothes on, whole cosy relationship is a farce.

Hurrache

Did Higgins say the advice was from the PSNI or his own security?