So Michael D IS running again!

Plumbthedepths

Zubeneschamali wrote:

I mean everyone knew MichaelD would win any election at a walk before SF announced they would force an election.

If MDH had honoured his word that he would not seek a second term we would have had an election anyway. He served well the last 7 years, but at 77 he should have retired gracefully and enjoy his retirement.

Eric Cartman

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

If MDH had honoured his word that he would not seek a second term we would have had an election anyway. He served well the last 7 years, but at 77 he should have retired gracefully and enjoy his retirement.

He has certainly been enjoying his time at the Aras dinner table anyway.


I'd be worried his health will have an accelerated decline.

batgoat

Eric Cartman wrote: »

He has certainly been enjoying his time at the Aras dinner table anyway.

I'd be worried his health will have an accelerated decline.

The level of desperation to actually have reached a point where you're attacking Michael D over his weight...

expectationlost

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/davemcginn_ie/status/1054265181872775168

is that face what the young kids call a meme or is just this guy doing them all https://twitter.com/MuintirNa/media or this guy https://twitter.com/MickeyVaugn

Plumbthedepths

Interesting poll carried out on the Limerick Leader website. Apologies unable to link from my phone. Casey is over 20points ahead of MDH in the poll. Casey has momentum at the moment , depending how he preforms tomorrow night he should be able to capitalise on it although I do feel a little uncomfortable with a 77 year old man being put under pressure. Having said that MDH has put himself in this situation when there was no need too

blanch152

Tell me how wrote: »

That's as may be the case, but in this instance, could you not see that the travelling community is inherently identifiable as a unique collection of people? Mention to anyone about a collection or grouping or indeed an individual traveller and they will know what you are referring to.

The viewpoint was, that they were (and are) identifiable in this way and as a consequence share part of Ireland's cultural heritage which is worth supporting and maintaining. I think that was the logic and wasn't solely limited to ethnicity as measured through DNA.

No problem with someone having that as a viewpoint, but if it is only a viewpoint, then someone (a Peter Casey or anyone else) is entitled to have a different viewpoint. That is the problem with subjective assessments.

Sycamore Tree

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

If MDH had honoured his word that he would not seek a second term we would have had an election anyway. He served well the last 7 years, but at 77 he should have retired gracefully and enjoy his retirement.

He has certainly been enjoying his time at the Aras dinner table anyway.


I'd be worried his health will have an accelerated decline.

You have issues. Cop on.

An Ciarraioch

expectationlost wrote: »

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/davemcginn_ie/status/1054265181872775168

is that face what the young kids call a meme or is just this guy doing them all https://twitter.com/MuintirNa/media or this guy https://twitter.com/MickeyVaugn

Apparently, the actual poster was seen in Harold's Cross.

Dia1988

Are the Reports by RTE and other such (possibly) Government influenced polls accurate to say that Michael D is at 70% and Peter Casey is at 2%. Or is it a ply to brain wash people to vote Michael D and shur everyone loves him type sheep mentality?

Here's a recent independent poll from the Limerick Leader stating Michael D is at 26% and Peter Casey is at a victorious 58%.

https://www.limerickleader.ie/poll/home/343353/leader-poll-who-are-you-voting-for-in-the-upcoming-presidential-election.html

Sycamore Tree

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Based on the current odds, the race for second place is wide open:

MDH 1/50 (unchanged)
Gallagher 20/1 (ditto)
Ní Ríada 33/1 (was 30/1 yesterday)
Casey 40/1 (was 80/1)
Freeman 100/1 (was 80/1)
Duffy 100/1 (unchanged)

I am already all over Casey for 2nd place. It's still a long shot.

ThunbergsAreGo

Dia1988 wrote: »

Are the Reports by RTE and other such (possibly) Government influenced polls accurate to say that Michael D is at 70% and Peter Casey is at 2%. Or is it a ply to brain wash people to vote Michael D and shur everyone loves him type sheep mentality?

Here's an independent poll from the Limerick Leading stating Michael D is at 26% and Peter Casey is at a victorious 58%.

https://www.limerickleader.ie/poll/home/343353/leader-poll-who-are-you-voting-for-in-the-upcoming-presidential-election.html

No Higgens will walk it

He has the can't be arsed voting in an online poll/ambivalent vote

batgoat

Dia1988 wrote: »

Are the Reports by RTE and other such (possibly) Government influenced polls accurate to say that Michael D is at 70% and Peter Casey is at 2%. Or is it a ply to brain wash people to vote Michael D and shur everyone loves him type sheep mentality?

Here's a recent independent poll from the Limerick Leader stating Michael D is at 26% and Peter Casey is at a victorious 58%.

https://www.limerickleader.ie/poll/home/343353/leader-poll-who-are-you-voting-for-in-the-upcoming-presidential-election.html

An online poll that can be voted on multiple times and is not executed in a remotely similar fashion to what polling agencies do is not comparable. A poll is coming out tomorrow, not an online one...

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

No problem with someone having that as a viewpoint, but if it is only a viewpoint, then someone (a Peter Casey or anyone else) is entitled to have a different viewpoint. That is the problem with subjective assessments.

Casey was completely wrong though. SEMS does not cause inequality.
The total lack of commitment by previous governments to deal with issues within the travelling community is what has given rise to the impression of unequal treatment.

CrabRevolution

Dia1988 wrote: »

Are the Reports by RTE and other such (possibly) Government influenced polls accurate to say that Michael D is at 70% and Peter Casey is at 2%. Or is it a ply to brain wash people to vote Michael D and shur everyone loves him type sheep mentality?

Here's a recent independent poll from the Limerick Leader stating Michael D is at 26% and Peter Casey is at a victorious 58%.

https://www.limerickleader.ie/poll/home/343353/leader-poll-who-are-you-voting-for-in-the-upcoming-presidential-election.html

So am I right in saying:

Polls showing MDH in the lead = Biased, government influenced, brain washing etc.

Polls showing Casey in the lead = independent truth

Or is there something else to it?

Dia1988

batgoat wrote: »

An online poll that can be voted on multiple times and is not executed in a remotely similar fashion to what polling agencies do is not comparable. A poll is coming out tomorrow, not an online one...

I tried voting again buy it just gives me the results, it recognises my MAC address. I'm sure if I went on another device I could vote again but that's too much hassle for a summary poll. It also had anti spam filter, it asks to tick a box if I'm not a robot.

In short, I'd imagine the majority of those votes are single votes.

Dia1988

CrabRevolution wrote: »

So am I right in saying:

Polls showing MDH in the lead = Biased, government influenced, brain washing etc.

Polls showing Casey in the lead = independent truth

Or is there something else to it?

Sorry for late reply.

I turned on RTE and was hypnotized MUST VOTE MICHAEL D #1

.........Stop with your fake news, you know I didn't say that.

q85dw7osi4lebg

batgoat wrote: »

An online poll that can be voted on multiple times and is not executed in a remotely similar fashion to what polling agencies do is not comparable. A poll is coming out tomorrow, not an online one...

No doubt tomorrows poll will have been fielded two weeks ago.

FrancieBrady

Dia1988 wrote: »

I tried voting again buy it just gives me the results, it recognises my MAC address. I'm sure if I went on another device I could vote again but that's too much hassle for a summary poll. It also had anti spam filter, it asks to tick a box if I'm not a robot.

In short, I'd imagine the majority of those votes are single votes.

I just voted twice by clearing out my cookies and data. ffs :rolleyes:

Rhineshark

blanch152 wrote: »

The problem I have with the definition of ethnicity as put forward (not just by you but in making decisions) is that there is both an element of self-selection and an element of subjectivity to it.

How many ancestral markers? How many cultural? What element of genetic drift? Do you exclude consanguinity from the genetic consideration?

Yeah, that's all true, it is difficult. Because people are complicated (which is why, tbh, I prefer science which is much easier). I am not expert enough to tell you how many is enough, but researchers have found a consensus. However, given genetic distinctions, a noticeably different (and old) culture and a distinct language form branching off from Irish, plus a distinct identification with the rest of said group distinct from the rest of the Irish population more than fulfils those caveats. Far more than Scousers, Cockneys, South Kerrymen or Dubs (I am still unsure where you are getting some of these. What are your sources for fulfilling the conditions that indicate distinct ethnic grouping?)

None of that is written down anywhere, making any decision on ethnicity a subjective one, and therefore can be challenged by anyone, including Casey.

Well, I doubt you are sure of the first. Given ethnographers and anthropologists have been interested in the question of culture and identity for a very long time, they probably have a pretty good idea. Under rules accepted enough to be default for publishing academic papers, which is what the decision was based on, they meet the conditions. (If genetics, language and a distinctly different way of life aren't markers of ethnic distinction btw, what *would* you count?)

Yes, Casey can challenge whatever likes, and people are fully entitled to think he's an idiot when he's wrong. Sure, ethnic identity is wooly around the edges. As is psychology. If Casey had said that mental illness doesn't exist and mentally ill people are just idle spongers, surely he is, by your logic, at least arguably right. How many markers of mental illness are enough? How do you define a completely well person? It can't be strictly measured so its all subjective and can be challenged by anyone, no? There's grey areas but working and generally accepted rules, as there is regarding ethnicity. Although since people have historically been inclined to try kill each other over ethnicity, a bit of constructive ambiguity might be wise.

When a man running for President suddenly decides to randomly go after the validity of a groups identity when best evidence (and the working rules) indicates they are indeed a distinct group - and goes twice when he's ignorant of the basis for it anyway - he is not "starting a national discussion". He's dogwhistling.

So yeah, he can say it. And he'll get some supporters. And he'll hurt some people. And other people will hear him and think him cynical, ignorant and/or an ass. He was on 1% so not like losses of people probably not voting for him mattered anyway. That people called him out on what he said is not unfair, it is the basic corrollery to free speech.

Loafing Oaf

Dia1988 wrote: »

Are the Reports by RTE and other such (possibly) Government influenced polls accurate to say that Michael D is at 70% and Peter Casey is at 2%. Or is it a ply to brain wash people to vote Michael D and shur everyone loves him type sheep mentality?

Here's a recent independent poll from the Limerick Leader stating Michael D is at 26% and Peter Casey is at a victorious 58%.

https://www.limerickleader.ie/poll/home/343353/leader-poll-who-are-you-voting-for-in-the-upcoming-presidential-election.html

Yeah but it’s limerick. Be like calling the American presidential election based on a poll in the Alabama leader.

CrabRevolution

Dia1988 wrote: »

Sorry for late reply.

I turned on RTE and was hypnotized MUST VOTE MICHAEL D #1

.........Stop with your fake news, you know I didn't say that.

I know exactly what you said, in your words:

Dia1988 wrote: »

Are the Reports by RTE and other such (possibly) Government influenced polls accurate to say that Michael D is at 70% and Peter Casey is at 2%. Or is it a ply to brain wash people to vote Michael D and shur everyone loves him type sheep mentality?

Here's a recent independent poll from the Limerick Leader stating Michael D is at 26% and Peter Casey is at a victorious 58%.

https://www.limerickleader.ie/poll/home/343353/leader-poll-who-are-you-voting-for-in-the-upcoming-presidential-election.html

Your first paragraph proposes that polls supporting MDH are government influenced and trying to brainwash people.

Your second states that the poll supporting Casey is independent.

What part of that have I misconstrued?

You've presented no evidence that the polls supporting MDH are government influenced (or even RTÉ influenced actually, since RTÉ haven't commissioned any polls) and you also produce no evidence that the poll supporting Casey is independent.

pixelburp

Online polls are not worth the paper they're printed on, and cannot be taken seriously by anyone, unless folks are simply seeking validation for their preferred candidate's success. Online polls can - and are - manipulated by anyone who chooses to take the < 30 seconds of effort to turn 1 vote into as many as they wanted, limited only by devices they have to hand (notwithstanding places like Boards where at least you get one vote per user). They can be a useful indicator towards broad trends, but given you cannot guarantee honest numbers, useful demographics or even basic geographic accuracy, there's a good reason why polling companies haven't gone online themselves.

You know what you get with online polls? Boaty McBoatface They're laughably easy to scam.

batgoat

Dia1988 wrote: »

I tried voting again buy it just gives me the results, it recognises my MAC address. I'm sure if I went on another device I could vote again but that's too much hassle for a summary poll. It also had anti spam filter, it asks to tick a box if I'm not a robot.

In short, I'd imagine the majority of those votes are single votes.

My primary point is that a representative poll can not be done online. You can pretty easily vote multiple times if you want btw, just jump into incognito mode, was zero effort. Regardless, it's not comparable to any polling done by the likes of Red C.

Rhineshark

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I just voted twice by clearing out my cookies and data. ffs :rolleyes:

Lol, I just voted three times to see if I could. Let me do it twice in incognito tab without even clearing anything.

Something tells me this is not a scientific poll :P

batgoat

Rhineshark wrote: »

Lol, I just voted three times to see if I could. Let me do it twice in incognito tab without even clearing anything.

Something tells me this is not a scientific poll :P

Ya, I'm not sure why the Limerick leader would be bothered putting in the effort to check mac addresses... 🀣

FrancieBrady

Rhineshark wrote: »

Lol, I just voted three times to see if I could. Let me do it twice in incognito tab without even clearing anything.

Something tells me this is not a scientific poll :P

I never thought of incognito...even easier to do. I think MDH will have it won by morning!

Dia1988

CrabRevolution wrote: »

I know exactly what you said, in your words:



Your first paragraph proposes that polls supporting MDH are government influenced and trying to brainwash people.

Your second states that the poll supporting Casey is independent.

What part of that have I misconstrued?

You've presented no evidence that the polls supporting MDH are government influenced (or even RTÉ influenced actually, since RTÉ haven't commissioned any polls) and you also produce no evidence that the poll supporting Casey is independent.

Here's my evidence Leo Varadkar advising voters to steer clear of voting Casey.

https://www.limerickleader.ie/poll/home/343353/leader-poll-who-are-you-voting-for-in-the-upcoming-presidential-election.html

RTE Claire Byrne defending MDH on his 10k dog grooming expenses from "a phone call they just received"

Least we forget MDH couldn't be bothered to even turn up to the debate as RTEs Claire Byrne will do the defending for dear aul Michael.

For the record, I don't want Peter Casey to be President, I used to be a fan of MDH but he's showing complete arrogance on this election. If I was in the country to vote I'd be voting Liadh Ní Riada, MEP, Gaelgeoir and quite a strong passionate speaker!

Hurrache

Dia1988 wrote: »

RTE Claire Byrne defending MDH on his 10k dog grooming expenses from "a phone call they just received"

Spin it will you want, even Gallagher himself tries to muddy this, she read out a clarification from his campaign. Do you, or Gallagher, expect them not to after last time?

Dia1988

Hurrache wrote: »

Spin it will you want, even Gallagher himself tries to muddy this, she read out a clarification from his campaign. Do you, or Gallagher, expect them not to after last time?

As you say I'd expect them not to after "last time" as they "just received the phone call"

batgoat

Dia1988 wrote: »

Here's my evidence Leo Varadkar advising voters to steer clear of voting Casey.

https://www.limerickleader.ie/poll/home/343353/leader-poll-who-are-you-voting-for-in-the-upcoming-presidential-election.html

RTE Claire Byrne defending MDH on his 10k dog grooming expenses from "a phone call they just received"

Least we forget MDH couldn't be bothered to even turn up to the debate as RTEs Claire Byrne will do the defending for dear aul Michael.

For the record, I don't want Peter Casey to be President, I used to be a fan of MDH but he's showing complete arrogance on this election. If I was in the country to vote I'd be voting Liadh Ní Riada, MEP, Gaelgeoir and quite a strong passionate speaker!

You haven't provided evidence of anything. In relation to clarifying on untrue statements, rte would do it for any other candidate after what happened in previous election.

The government has always favoured a candidate in elections. Alongside the other parties doing the exact same thing... It's standard in a democracy..