So Michael D IS running again!

jmcc

Hurrache wrote: »

He was as many years younger than Huggins last time around as he is now and it was of no advantage.

Gallagher was leading in all the polls right up to the Frontline using that fake tweet. It was about 40% for Gallagher to 25% for Higgins and Higgins was losing support in the opinion polls as they came closer to the election. Without the Frontline show using that fake tweet, we'd probably be arguing about a second term for Gallagher now.

This is also not 2011. Back then, Labour had 37 TDs. Now it has only 7. It also had strong representation at a local council level. In 2014, it was almost demolished at a national level and has only 50 council seats. FF is the largest party at local level followed by FG and then SF. This local, grassroots element is the organisation that does the canvassing for parties. Without a strong grassroots operation, Higgins will be almost completely dependent on FG and FF canvassers. Now if Gallagher gets into the race, some of those are more likely to canvass for Gallagher and FF is no longer as toxic as it was in 2011. The Higgins election looks like an electoral abnormality because it was dependent of the fake tweet. The voters will be paying a lot of more attention to the candidates this time around and any flaw on any candidate is going to be exploited. Higgins' age is a major factor and there's going to be a callous implication that people are voting for a day off when they are voting for Higgins. It won't be said that people are voting for a candidate who, statistically, ( https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/ilt/irishlifetablesno162010-2012/ ) may die in office but it will be implied.

Regards...jmcc

batgoat

jmcc wrote: »

Higgins' age combined with his pledge to do only one term will both be factors in how people vote. A younger candidate may gain more votes. In the 2011 coverage, one of Higgins' hands had a very serious tremor and the camera coverage tried to keep away from showing direct shots. Higgins now keeps his hands folded on-camera. That kind of thing will be picked up, consciously or unconsciously by voters.

Regards...jmcc

The reality is that he seemed to work comfortably for seven years. Much of the rationale on why he likely expected only one term was because he had some health problems at time. However he presently seems to be in very good health. He's also got a pretty large amount of the younger demographic that like him. Gallagh or Duffy are personally far less appealing because they have more in common with the likes of Trump, no political experience and are using the role for their ego more than anything else.

jmcc

batgoat wrote: »

The reality is that he seemed to work comfortably for seven years. Much of the rationale on why he likely expected only one term was because he had some health problems at time.

Doesn't matter. People will see an old man and younger candidates. The health issue will be brought up and it will damage Higgins' campaign.

The pledge to do one term -- a central element of his 2011 campaign -- is going to be used against him.

Regards...jmcc

jm08

It wasn't the tweet that undid Gallagher, it was his inability to distance himself from Fianna Fail who were pretty toxic at the time. Worth looking at that infamous debate again. It was Martin McGuinness who said that he had been talking to a business man from Louth (known to have criminal connections) who claimed that Gallagher had collected a cheque from him for €5K (which seemingly was for Fianna Fail and Gallagher claimed to know nothing about).

jmcc

jm08 wrote: »

It wasn't the tweet that undid Gallagher, it was his inability to distance himself from Fianna Fail who were pretty toxic at the time.

No. It was the fake tweet. And when he used the word "envelope", his campaign was over. It is that simple. Without the fake tweet, he probably would have gone on to win.

Regards...jmcc

blanch152

jm08 wrote: »

Blanch, you're a Green are you not? Stones and glasshouses come to mind here! Is Eamon Ryan going to throw his hat in the ring again, or can't the Greens afford to run a candidate?

Touche

However, I vote Green, but I'm not a Green.

jm08

jmcc wrote: »

No. It was the fake tweet. And when he used the word "envelope", his campaign was over. It is that simple. Without the fake tweet, he probably would have gone on to win.

Regards...jmcc

Have a look at this section of the debate on RTE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUhFdi7iRL0 .

This video is an interview with Gallagher about winning his case with RTE.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGcNMIRlKq8

His argument was that he received unfair treatment by RTE in how he was questioned.

realdanbreen

jm08 wrote: »

. It was Martin McGuinness who said that he had been talking to a business man from Louth (known to have criminal connections).

Ah here, that's stretching it a bit, Martin speaking to a man from Louth with criminal connections!
And the gas part is Gallagher got hammered because he mentioned the word 'envelope' just shows what a discerning electorate is out there.

Beechwoodspark

Hurrache wrote: »

People don't vote based on age.

Agree - there’s a sense that Mickey d stole/got very lucky the last election due to the front line shenanigans.

So right from the get go Mickey d was on thin ice and instead of accepting that, he arrogantly p1ssed off huge sections of the population (won’t list them out here-see my other posts for examples).

Then of course his 1 term promise which he has broken And the way he tried to desperately avoid an election at all cost so that he could sneak back in for another 7 years.

Well-it’s all coming back to bite him now....

jm08

realdanbreen wrote: »

Ah here, that's stretching it a bit, Martin speaking to a man from Louth with criminal connections!
And the gas part is Gallagher got hammered because he mentioned the word 'envelope' just shows what a discerning electorate is out there.

Gallagher got hammered because he was hiding his closeness to Fianna Fail (whom the country was very angry with back then) and he was collecting cheques in envelopes for £5K from this dodgy businessman which he claimed was for Fianna Fail two years previously when the country was on its knees, put there by inept Fianna Fail politicians who put the party before the people.

And you are blaming the electorate for not being happy about that?

Big Ears

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Well-it’s all coming back to bite him now....

Is it ?, he's at very short odds to win the next election. From that you'd have to assume there's a perception (at least among the bookies) that the electorate are generally happy with his performance.

batgoat

jmcc wrote: »

batgoat wrote: »

The reality is that he seemed to work comfortably for seven years. Much of the rationale on why he likely expected only one term was because he had some health problems at time.

Doesn't matter. People will see an old man and younger candidates. The health issue will be brought up and it will damage Higgins' campaign.

The pledge to do one term -- a central element of his 2011 campaign -- is going to be used against him.

Regards...jmcc

A business man candidate is actually possibly more unappealing than ever at the moment to the Irish public. Literally brings Trump to mind. "I changed my mind and decided that I'm capable of doing a second term, I still have more to offer to the role" would entirely cover Higgins on the one term issue.

pixelburp

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Agree - there’s a sense that Mickey d stole/got very lucky the last election due to the front line shenanigans.

Well-it’s all coming back to bite him now....

Until we see a single poll the above is just rank speculation betraying personal bias. This thread has been the single source of disillusionment with Higgins, bar the usual carping one gets on news outlets' comments sections. It's just as easy to suggest Higgins is well loved as the jolly grandad figure, and would walk a relection.


Let the candidates appear and the campaigns begin before declaring Higgins as some 'found out' charlatan.

storker

All we need from the President is someone who can say the right things at the right occasions and not do anything embarrassing. Michael D seems to have proved himself capable of this, so I'm happy enough to leave him there or vote him back in (I certainly wouldn't be voting for anyone who uses the term "Ireland Inc").

The President has no power and can do nothing to make anyone's life better or worse, but the news-peddlers are acting like this is life and death stuff. Some politics geek went on for ages on Newstalk this morning about Sean Gallagher and the will-he-or-won't-he question (better maybe to take a look at the who-gives -a-toss question). With regard to expected nominations following the governments announcement of the election, he actually used the phrase "Super Monday" - yes, really. FF pushing for an election is more about getting their man in, no matter who it is.

Panem et circenses...

Loafing Oaf

storker wrote: »

FF pushing for an election is more about getting their man in, no matter who it is.

SF you mean?

jmcc

batgoat wrote: »

A business man candidate is actually possibly more unappealing than ever at the moment to the Irish public. Literally brings Trump to mind. "I changed my mind and decided that I'm capable of doing a second term, I still have more to offer to the role" would entirely cover Higgins on the one term issue.

It would not. Higgins lied to the Irish people to get elected. And now he wants to keep his snout in the trough for another seven years. Without RTE effectively rigging the election with that fake tweet, Higgins would probably not have won. RTE will have to do everything above board this time around. The media still seems to consider Higgins as "their" president. The problem for Higgins and those support him is that people are a lot more cynical about the media these days. Some room temperature IQed churnalist says Higgins is in full health? People will want to see the medical reports.

Regards...jmcc

batgoat

jmcc wrote: »

batgoat wrote: »

A business man candidate is actually possibly more unappealing than ever at the moment to the Irish public. Literally brings Trump to mind. "I changed my mind and decided that I'm capable of doing a second term, I still have more to offer to the role" would entirely cover Higgins on the one term issue.

It would not. Higgins lied to the Irish people to get elected. And now he wants to keep his snout in the trough for another seven years. Without RTE effectively rigging the election with that fake tweet, Higgins would probably not have won. RTE will have to do everything above board this time around. The media still seems to consider Higgins as "their" president. The problem for Higgins and those support him is that people are a lot more cynical about the media these days. Some room temperature IQed churnalist says Higgins is in full health? People will want to see the medical reports.

Regards...jmcc

For you it mightn't but most of the Irish public it likely would.. Ger Craughwell and you can get frustrated about his medical reports but most likely won't, Dev was in his bloody nineties. I have more faith in Michael D on every front in contrast to that man.

jmcc

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

SF you mean?

That's the big unknown in this election. Labour is a fringe party now and SF is, according to the most recent opinion poll, more popular than FF. If SF chooses a good candidate, then this will get a lot of free coverage for SF. Martin's collaboration with FG and his decision to go for the "My Little Crony" strategy with FG to prevent an election to safe money for FF/FG has backfired. FF seriously needs to get Gallagher in the race or put up its own candidate because, however improbable it seems now, an SF candidate could win this election due to a highly fragmented field. There's no FG candidate so where does the conservative FG vote go? There's no FF candidate so where does the conservative FF vote go? The Left has always been small in Ireland. So will those votes go to Higgins? And what happens with the None Of The Above vote? Will that go to Gemma O'Doherty or a candidate nominated by the Independents?

Regards...jmcc

pixelburp

Oh so we're indulging in media conspiracies now? I mean I'd point to the polls, formal or otherwise that have shown people happy with his presidency and the man, not to mention the plethora of social media goodwill (the cottage industry of tea cosies hardly a sign of a resting embittered populace), but if the narrative is now about RTÈ rigging elections the thread can no longer be taken seriously. Fair enough of people don't like the guy but to mutate that into something larger is disingenuous and a little presumptuous

jmcc

batgoat wrote: »

For you it mightn't but most of the Irish public it likely would.. Ger Craughwell and you can get frustrated about his medical reports but most likely won't, Dev was in his bloody nineties. I have more faith in Michael D on every front in contrast to that man.

DeValera has been dead for over forty years. People still remember him and debate his contributions to the Irish state. He fought for Irish freedom too. Higgins did what? A lifetime with his snout in the public trough and five or so pensions. This the problem for Higgins. He's a typical gombeen politician of the old school shaking a voter's hand with one hand while the other's in the voter's pocket. The FF/FG attempt at a coronation for Higgins rather than an election is not going to go down well. Ironically it was Caughwell and SF that forced an election. This is going to be very important for SF because a lot of its voter demographics are younger than FF and FG. And SF made a point of how a corrupt coronation of Higgins by FF/FG would have denied many of these new voters a vote.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

pixelburp wrote: »

Oh so we're indulging in media conspiracies now? I mean I'd point to the polls, formal or otherwise that have shown people happy with his presidency

What polls?

Regards...jmcc

batgoat

jmcc wrote: »

DeValera has been dead for over forty years. People still remember him and debate his contributions to the Irish state. He fought for Irish freedom too. Higgins did what? A lifetime with his snout in the public trough and five or so pensions. This the problem for Higgins. He's a typical gombeen politician of the old school shaking a voter's hand with one hand while the other's in the voter's pocket. The FF/FG attempt at a coronation for Higgins rather than an election is not going to go down well. Ironically it was Caughwell and SF that forced an election. This is going to be very important for SF because a lot of its voter demographics are younger than FF and FG. And SF made a point of how a corrupt coronation of Higgins by FF/FG would have denied many of these new voters a vote.

Regards...jmcc

But you're arguing that age should factor in as if there's any sign that he's unwell so Dev is pretty relevant, should we have been asking for his medical records too? I totally favour both Gavin Duffy and Gallagher getting a nomination, it'll split the vote for them. The younger generation are pretty happy with Higgins remaining in the role btw. Here's a poll from May, most of electorate weren't even aware he only intended one term...

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/majority-supports-second-term-for-president-higgins-1.3500531

jmcc

pixelburp wrote: »

but if the narrative is now about RTÈ rigging elections the thread can no longer be taken seriously.

Two investigations, a BAI ruling and a court settlement count for nothing? There will be a sympathy vote for Gallagher, if he gets into the race, due to the way that that Gallagher was treated by RTE in the 2011 election.

The Frontline show used the fake tweet to nobble him and rigged the audience with "friends" of the show rather than using a random sample of the electorate. It also did not mention on the Pat Kenny show the following morning that the tweet was fake.

Regards...jmcc

Pa8301

jmcc wrote: »

Two investigations, a BAI ruling and a court settlement count for nothing? There will be a sympathy vote for Gallagher, if he gets into the race, due to the way that that Gallagher was treated by RTE in the 2011 election.

The Frontline show used the fake tweet to nobble him and rigged the audience with "friends" of the show rather than using a random sample of the electorate. It also did not mention on the Pat Kenny show the following morning that the tweet was fake.

Regards...jmcc

Sean Gallagher was never going to win that election and he won't win this one either if he is nominated. And it won't be because of any conspiracies. It will be because he is a very mediocre candidate. I think the only reason he ever ran for President was to raise his profile. And look, people are talking about him again...

jmcc

batgoat wrote: »

But you're arguing that age should factor in as if there's any sign that he's unwell so Dev is pretty relevant, should we have been asking for his medical records too?

DeValera nearly lost the election for his second term as president. That election was fought when there was essentially a captive electronic media with only on TV station and one radio station in the country. Now, people get their news from multiple sources. People can easily be influenced by Social Media.

Age is going to be a factor because people will see an old man standing beside younger candidates. Perception is everything on TV. It doesn't matter how well a candidate speaks or how powerful his or her message is, if there's any flaw, the camera will amplify it.

I totally favour both Gavin Duffy and Gallagher getting a nomination, it'll split the vote for them.

It is not certain that Duffy will get a nomination and I think that he may have been used as a stalking horse.

The younger generation are pretty happy with Higgins remaining in the role btw. Here's a poll from May, most of electorate weren't even aware he only intended one term...

A poll taken when there were no clear competitors and when Higgins was trying to put off announcing to damage his opponents' abilities to fundraise and campaign. As applicable to the current situation as a Sunday Independent Quantum Research poll.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

Pa8301 wrote: »

Sean Gallagher was never going to win that election

Multiple RedC and MRBI polls had Gallagher around 40% and Higgins around 25%. These indicated that Higgins was in trouble and that Gallagher would probably win.

Regards...jmcc

Water John

Gallagher was, on course to win. No doubt on that. PK's professional judgement in using an uncollaborated tweet lead to Gallagher's downfall. This is irrespective of whether one was for him or any other candidate.
For example CNN commenting on the Cohen pleads, the reporter said, 'I have it from three sources'. That is the level of journalism expected.

Three new oddballs going to some CC meeting in the next few days. Didn't even read the article.
A good candidate would give MDH a good run. I would expect a President to do more than, just not put his/her foot in it. Obviously within the constraints of the office.

VinLieger

jmcc wrote: »

There will be a sympathy vote for Gallagher, if he gets into the race, due to the way that that Gallagher was treated by RTE in the 2011 election.

The general irish public dont care enough about presidential elections for there to be a sympathy vote for Gallagher due to 2011.

jmcc

VinLieger wrote: »

The general irish public dont care enough about presidential elections for there to be a sympathy vote for Gallagher due to 2011.

All depends how it is marketed: Higgins as the gombeen candidate who couldn't get elected without a rigged election. Gallagher as the candidate deprived of the presidency by gombeens and an RTE and FG/Labour endorsed stitch-up.

Loads of stuff to work with there.

Regards...jmcc

batgoat

jmcc wrote: »

VinLieger wrote: »

The general irish public dont care enough about presidential elections for there to be a sympathy vote for Gallagher due to 2011.

All depends how it is marketed: Higgins as the gombeen candidate who couldn't get elected without a rigged election. Gallagher as the candidate deprived of the presidency by gombeens and an RTE and FG/Labour endorsed stitch-up.

Loads of stuff to work with there.

Regards...jmcc

You're gonna get a shock for this election. Higgins is the front runner for good reason.