So Michael D IS running again!

jmcc

Matt Barrett wrote: »

What's your point on repeating the 'my little crony'? Now you're suggesting the main parties intend winning the political game by not playing?

It is a rather apt description of their strategy. They intended a coronation for Higgins which would not have the two main parties having to spend money on a presidential election and promoting their candidates. The money could be saved for the General Election and the European and Local Elections in May 2019. Every Euro spent on a presidential election by FF/FG would be one Euro less for a GE/LE/Euro election candidate. It is very cynical real politik. And the strategy failed because SF didn't play along.

Regards...jmcc

Itssoeasy

jmcc wrote: »

It would have been the same had any other candidate won by RTE's electoral interference. The important thing is democracy. If RTE could nobble the front runner in the 2011 presidential election, would it be fair if they did it to another candidate this time around? Where does that leave democracy?

Regards...jmcc

So the fact that Sean Gallagher couldn't answer the question in a better way and not messed up and then threw a wobbler the next day on the radio he might have won the presidency is RTÉs fault ? Rte didn't help but to say they made Sean Gallagher mess up his handling of that situation is ridiculous.

gandalf

jmcc wrote: »

Higgins has. His father fought in the WoI and Civil War, I think. Of course, there's a possibility that an FF or FG president would be problematic for one or the other of those parties hence the "My Little Crony" strategy for a compromise candidate.

Regards...jmcc

You are aware that the President in essence is directed nearly totally by the government so no matter whose in the Aras they are the crony of the Government :rolleyes:

jmcc

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So the fact that Sean Gallagher couldn't answer the question in a better way and not messed up and then threw a wobbler the next day on the radio he might have won the presidency is RTÉs fault ? Rte didn't help but to say they made Sean Gallagher mess up his handling of that situation is ridiculous.

The Frontline audience was stuffed with "friends" of the show rather than being randomly selected from the electorate. The first few questions to Gallagher failed to elicit any response from the audience other than confusion. One of the questioners got two attempts at a question to Gallagher. The initial attempt to nail Gallagher had failed. The fake tweet provided an opportunity to get Gallagher and the Frontline staff did not bother to verify its provenance even though the SF campaign team were there in the studio. Without that fake tweet, McGuinness would not have been able to interrogate Gallagher and Gallagher would not have used the word "envelope" and killed his campaign there and then. The Pat Kenny show the following morning was also censured by the BAI over failing to clarify that the tweet used in the Frontline show was fake. Staff members of the Frontline/Pat Kenny show did not have their employment contracts with RTE renewed and the Frontline show was subsequently cancelled (though not necessarily because of this). RTE's involvement through not verifying the tweet was central to Gallagher's implosion and Higgins winning the election.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

gandalf wrote: »

Well knowing Oscar personally as I do you are very wrong there. He has probably forgotten more about politics than some around here claim they know.

And specifically about spin and PR and how they operate in politics and the media?

As for Michael D we'll see if he has suffered any electoral damage, I doubt it.

The FF campaign to support Gallagher seems to have already started judging by that article in the Examiner.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

gandalf wrote: »

You are aware that the President in essence is directed nearly totally by the government so no matter whose in the Aras they are the crony of the Government :rolleyes:

They are generally constrained by the government whether they are a crony or not.

Regards...jmcc

oscarBravo

jmcc wrote: »

And specifically about spin and PR and how they operate in politics and the media?

What does any of that have to do with your repetition of an allegation for which you had absolutely no evidence whatsoever?

Zubeneschamali

jmcc wrote: »

It is a rather apt description of their strategy. They intended a coronation for Higgins which would not have the two main parties having to spend money on a presidential election and promoting their candidates. The money could be saved for the General Election and the European and Local Elections in May 2019. Every Euro spent on a presidential election by FF/FG would be one Euro less for a GE/LE/Euro election candidate. It is very cynical real politik. And the strategy failed because SF didn't play along.

So, we'll blow a tonne of taxpayer money on the coronation of Higgins instead of doing it on the cheap.

gandalf

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

So, we'll blow a tonne of taxpayer money on the coronation of Higgins instead of doing it on the cheap.

Especially looking at the calibre of candidate that are proposing themselves. Unless Sinn Fein pull a credible candidate out of their ar$e Higgins is a shoe in to get re-elected.

Hurrache

jmcc wrote: »

No. The pledge to do only on term was a cynical move to neutralise any questioning of Higgins' age and health in the 2011 election.

That's politics.

Zubeneschamali

Hurrache wrote: »

That's politics.

Somewhat ironic that Higgins is still hale and hearty for 78, while McGuinness, who was only 61 at the time of the campaign, died since, yet it was Higgins who faced the question of his age at the time.

Zubeneschamali

Matt Barrett wrote: »

The Presidential race, this one in particular has absolutely no bearing on any upcoming general election.

Limited bearing, but not none.

FG did pretty well in the GE yet Mitchell was absolutely humiliated in the Presidential. Higgins won despite Labour getting destroyed.

But McGuinness clearly ran to build SFs credibility as a "real" party and to do down FF as the official opposition.

I think it is obvious that Gallagher was a stealth FF candidate and would have been hailed as FFs return to respectability if he had won, when suddenly "the dogs in the street" would have known he was FF all along.

Sabre0001

October 26th is the date when all will be decided: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/presidential-election-confirmed-for-october-26th-as-order-signed-today-1.3610087

[font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]The formal order calling the 2018 presidential election will signed today by Minister for Housing, Planning and Local Government Eoghan Murphy.[/font]

[font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]Mr Murphy said polling day is to be held on Friday, October 26th.[/font]

[font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]The closing date for nominations will be September 26th.[/font]

[font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]The winner of the election will be inaugurated on November 11th, 2018.[/font]

gandalf

Well at least the phoney war is over and all these prospects have to get their arses in gear and secure their nominations.

jmcc

oscarBravo wrote: »

What does any of that have to do with your repetition of an allegation for which you had absolutely no evidence whatsoever?

Because for someone who, as Gandalf said, has apparently has forgotten more about politics than some around here, you don't seem to understand why things are said in election campaigns.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

So, we'll blow a tonne of taxpayer money on the coronation of Higgins instead of doing it on the cheap.

Would you rather a democratic vote or a corrupt coronation so that FF and FG could save money for their GE/LE/Euro election campaigns?

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

Hurrache wrote: »

That's politics.

Quite. You are learning.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

FG did pretty well in the GE yet Mitchell was absolutely humiliated in the Presidential. Higgins won despite Labour getting destroyed.

Labour having had an election result of 37 seats in the 2011 GE was not wiped out. Far from it.

But McGuinness clearly ran to build SFs credibility as a "real" party and to do down FF as the official opposition.

SF always has a long term strategy whereas some of the other parties seem more focused on just the next election.

I think it is obvious that Gallagher was a stealth FF candidate and would have been hailed as FFs return to respectability if he had won, when suddenly "the dogs in the street" would have known he was FF all along.

The mistake that FG/Labour made about FF was that it was not destroyed. Labour, at the time, was acting like the future was rosy and it was going to continue getting more seats. FG was somewhat more worried and had decided that it would prefer FF as the other major political party. By the Local Elections in 2014, Labour was in serious trouble and it lost 81 seats. FF overtook FG as the largest party at local/council level. SF became the third largest party at local level. In the 2016 GE, Labour went from its previous result of 37 seats to just 7. This election will be FF/FG's Gallagher against a SF candidate. Higgins is just a distraction from the real battle for power.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

gandalf wrote: »

Well at least the phoney war is over and all these prospects have to get their arses in gear and secure their nominations.

The game's afoot. Who will be tripped up first?

Regards...jmcc

gandalf

jmcc wrote: »

The game's afoot. Who will be tripped up first?

Regards...jmcc

TBH some are already falling they just don't realise it yet.

I see Gallagher has "leaked" that he'll be throwing his hat into the ring formally tomorrow. So I fully expect him to be in. Not sure which of the others will get in and we still have to see which wildcard SF throw into the race.

Chips Lovell

This thread has managed to get very ill-tempered in recent days. Less of the personal sniping and more debate please. And if you haven't read the charter, please do so, particularly:

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In short, be nice.

gandalf

jmcc wrote: »

Quite. You are learning.

Regards...jmcc

TBH it is a waste of money for a position that really has no real power.

Also the choices are abysmal. A pile of sh!te or another pile of sh!te or a extremely smelly pile of sh!te!

It may be undemocratic in your eyes but I fully expect this to be one of the lowest turnouts for any vote here in years.

Zubeneschamali

jmcc wrote: »

Would you rather a democratic vote or a corrupt coronation so that FF and FG could save money for their GE/LE/Euro election campaigns?

Higgins will crush the quota and get his expenses. SF will also see their expenses back. Anyone else who enters will have to pay themselves. I don't see how this disadvantages FG/FF financially.

Re-appointing the incumbent is not a "corrupt coronation", and Higgins isn't even a FF/FG figure.

But anyhow, SF are running even if no-one else matters, so it is a chance for them to get someones face (and no doubt Mary Lou too) on some lamp-posts.

jmcc

gandalf wrote: »

TBH some are already falling they just don't realise it yet.

I see Gallagher has "leaked" that he'll be throwing his hat into the ring formally tomorrow. So I fully expect him to be in. Not sure which of the others will get in and we still have to see which wildcard SF throw into the race.

To quote the move "Wag The Dog", you don't bring on the shark in the first reel. It has been a typical marketing campaign to build a momentum with Gallagher and keep people talking about him.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

gandalf wrote: »

TBH it is a waste of money for a position that really has no real power.

It is not about the presidency. It is about which party becomes the second largest party in the state. This is a war between FF/FG/SF. The presidency is only a small skirmish in that.

It may be undemocratic in your eyes but I fully expect this to be one of the lowest turnouts for any vote here in years.

It was 56% last time, from memory.

Regards...jmcc

Zubeneschamali

jmcc wrote: »

It has been a typical marketing campaign to build a momentum with Gallagher and keep people talking about him.

"Is that feckin eejit back? Where's he been hiding for the past 7 years -- hoping we'll forget his last outing?"

Nice job.

jmcc

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Higgins will crush the quota and get his expenses. SF will also see their expenses back. Anyone else who enters will have to pay themselves. I don't see how this disadvantages FG/FF financially.

Higgins will probably get his expenses but that's merely a distraction. Mitchell, the FG in the 2011 election did not get his expenses and neither did some of the others.

Re-appointing the incumbent is not a "corrupt coronation", and Higgins isn't even a FF/FG figure.

When it is being done to save FF/FG money that they could better spend on their own GE/LE/Euro election campaigns, it is.

But anyhow, SF are running even if no-one else matters, so it is a chance for them to get someones face (and no doubt Mary Lou too) on some lamp-posts.

Labour has already been demolished or SDLPicised. SF would like to overtake FF or force an FF/FG coalition after the next GE.

Regards...jmcc

pixelburp

I haven't seen a single thought piece praising the return of Gallagher, his presence in the discussion has been near universally met with derision and fatigue. If this his grand strategy then it has already failed. Contrast that with the overall positive response to Higgins running again (bar concerns over his age), but apparently that doesn't count cos of LIES!

jmcc

pixelburp wrote: »

I haven't seen a single thought piece praising the return of Gallagher, his presence in the discussion has been near universally met with derision and fatigue. If this his grand strategy then it has already failed. Contrast that with the overall positive response to Higgins running again (bar concerns over his age), but apparently that doesn't count cos of LIES!

Thought pieces (OpEds) don't matter. They are just one person's opinion. They are one reason why the sales of newspapers have halved in the last ten years. (The shift from news to opinion so that newspapers became viewspapers.)

What matters is that people are talking about a candidate and even if the comments are negative, they are talking about the candidate rather than other candidates. This is what a lot of people, including the bulk of the Dublin media never understood about the 2016 US presidential election. The bulk of the OpEds were about Trump. CNN and the other channels (apart from Fox) had their news completely dominated by Trump. HRC was a sidestory. This is what Gallagher would be hoping for in this campaign. By focusing on his campaign, the others won't get coverage.

Regards...jmcc

dulpit

Unless something significantly changes, it feels like the groundswell away from Higgins just isn't happening. There hasn't been a single candidate floated that would be an immediate draw to large numbers, they all seem to attract small cohorts of people.

Ultimately, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Higgins gets through in count 1 - the only likely candidate to gather significant votes so far is the unnamed SF candidate... We'll see over the coming days/weeks I suppose.