So Michael D IS running again!

jmcc

oscarBravo wrote: »

Are you aware of what my point is, and are disagreeing with it?

You think you know about polling but you don't. It is that simple. You didn't understand what the HuffPo prediction was based upon and thought it was a single poll. You brought up a spurious dice example but this is a problem with polling, its methodologies, interpretation and limitations.

Just to explain in simple terms that you may understand. Polls are snapshots of opinions at a specific time. They are not perfect and often incorporate flaws and, even though pollsters try hard to exclude them, biases. The HuffPo prediction was deeply flawed and its apology blamed, among other things, the data it used.

Regards...jmcc

oscarBravo

jmcc wrote: »

You think you know about polling but you don't. It is that simple.

I clearly forgot option 3: "I don't care what your point is, I just have a compulsion to tell you you're wrong about something."

Hotblack Desiato

blanch152 wrote: »

Is that the same Norris who was unable to work as a lecturer on disability grounds and was claiming a disability pension while at the same time was fully fit and able to lecture us all from his privileged position as a Senator?

Yep being a senator is very much a part-time job. It was private health insurance he was claiming off, not disability benefit btw.

jmcc

oscarBravo wrote: »

I clearly forgot option 3: "I don't care what your point is, I just have a compulsion to tell you you're wrong about something."

You repeated the clueless media cliches about "people who say "the polls were wrong" are generally using it as a shorthand way of saying "I don't understand how statistics works" "and " "we have had enough of experts" ". The problem is that the media didn't understand polling and its limitations. As in the cases of Brexit and the 2016 US election, many were quite partisan and biased. Thus when people who really did understand polling and Statistics (experts) were pointing out that there were problems with the reliability of the polls and their results, they were largely ignored by journalists who where oh so sure that Brexit would be rejected and that HRC would be POTUS. Both of these outcomes took them by surprise.

Your introduction of your dice example without understanding what was behind the HuffPo "prediction" is typical of the cluelessness that surrounds the issue. You didn't understand what the HuffPo prediction was based upon. You thought it was a poll. And to show that you were paying attention in your Probability class, you introduced a totally spurious and irrelevant dice example. HuffPo tried to blame poor data and excluded data in its apology. Real experts such as those in the AAPOR as linked above tried to analyse what happened with polling in the US presidential election.

There were also flaws in the polling for the recent Repeal referndum in that some pollsters using phone polling were predicting a close result while those using face to face polling were predicting a strong yes result. Perhaps you can explain why.

Regards...jmcc

Zubeneschamali

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

It was private health insurance he was claiming off, not disability benefit btw.

Trinity put him on permanent sick leave - an infamously gay man who has contracted a strange virus, they were not touching that with a bargepole back in the 90s.

Beechwoodspark

Norris was a disastrous candidate for president.

Is there a chance that 2 dragons den investors (Duffy and Gallagher) could run for the park? If so, bizarre.

Zubeneschamali

jmcc wrote: »

There were also flaws in the polling for the recent Repeal referndum in that some pollsters using phone polling were predicting a close result while those using face to face polling were predicting a strong yes result.

Can you link to one of the polls that predicted a close result?

I thought I was following that one closely, and never saw any such poll.

https://twitter.com/KeithMillsD7/status/1000311764490358785

jmcc

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Can you link to one of the polls that predicted a close result?

I thought I was following that one closely, and never saw any such poll.

https://twitter.com/KeithMillsD7/status/1000311764490358785

https://www.redcresearch.ie/crowd-predicts-narrow-yes-victory/

https://redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/SBP-May-2018-Poll-Report-8th-Referendum-GE-Vote-Intention-1.pdf

RedC used telephone polling and, I think, split their samples into fixed line and mobile.

Regards...jmcc

Zubeneschamali

jmcc wrote: »

https://www.redcresearch.ie/crowd-predicts-narrow-yes-victory/

https://redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/SBP-May-2018-Poll-Report-8th-Referendum-GE-Vote-Intention-1.pdf

OK, so their actual polling was not close at all, varying from 3:1 Yes to 2:1 Yes, with the poll closer to polling day being exactly right.

They mangled it in analysis of how to allocate the undecideds, got it utterly wrong and were able to print an "exciting" prediction with a closer result.

jmcc

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

OK, so their actual polling was not close at all, varying from 3:1 Yes to 2:1 Yes, with the poll closer to polling day being exactly right.

They mangled it in analysis of how to allocate the undecideds, got it utterly wrong and were able to print an "exciting" prediction with a closer result.

I think it had more to do with the sampling. Many of those voting in the referendum were first time voters and as such they were unlikely to own fixed line phones. Instead they probably owned mobile phones. I think that the number of new voters was over 100K. With the fixed line sample, that's 500 responses from older demographics. Most of those new voters would have been almost completely excluded from the fixed line sample unless they answered the fixed line phone by accident. Most of those in the fixed line sample would have had mobile phone anyway (mobile phone ownership is high in Ireland). It wasn't a normal election style situation with multiple choices. By not accounting for the influx of new voters who would have been mobile phone based, the effect of these new voters was effectively missed.

Regards...jmcc

Zubeneschamali

jmcc wrote: »

I think it had more to do with the sampling. Many of those voting in the referendum were first time voters and as such they were unlikely to own fixed line phones. Instead they probably owned mobile phones. I think that the number of new voters was over 100K. With the fixed line sample, that's 500 responses from older demographics. Most of those new voters would have been almost completely excluded from the fixed line sample unless they answered the fixed line phone by accident. Most of those in the fixed line sample would have had mobile phone anyway (mobile phone ownership is high in Ireland). It wasn't a normal election style situation with multiple choices. By not accounting for the influx of new voters who would have been mobile phone based, the effect of these new voters was effectively missed.

Regards...jmcc

No, here are the actual percentages from your links, raw and then excluding Don't Know/Won't Vote:

60/20/20 - 75% Yes
56/26/18 - 68% Yes
53/26/21 - 67% Yes
56/27/17 - 67% Yes

Result on the day - 66.4% Yes.

Absolutely nothing to explain, their polling was dead on.

jmcc

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, here are the actual percentages from your links, raw and then excluding Don't Know/Won't Vote:

60/20/20 - 75% Yes
56/26/18 - 68% Yes
53/26/21 - 67% Yes
56/27/17 - 67% Yes

Result on the day - 66.4% Yes.

Absolutely nothing to explain, their polling was dead on.

After the vote.

Regards...jmcc

spurious

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

Yep being a senator is very much a part-time job. It was private health insurance he was claiming off, not disability benefit btw.

Oh away with you and your facts...

Hotblack Desiato

jmcc wrote: »

https://www.redcresearch.ie/crowd-predicts-narrow-yes-victory/

https://redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/SBP-May-2018-Poll-Report-8th-Referendum-GE-Vote-Intention-1.pdf

RedC used telephone polling and, I think, split their samples into fixed line and mobile.

Regards...jmcc

Poll excluding DK was spot on. Where they went wrong was crystal-ball-gazing and coming up with a very large "shy No" vote which just didn't happen.

This was not a sampling issue, the sample turned out to be exactly representative. They just assumed that the don't knows would overwhelmingly vote a particular way.

Zubeneschamali

jmcc wrote: »

After the vote.

No - before the vote, on 4 different dates.

You said There were also flaws in the polling for the recent Repeal referndum in that some pollsters using phone polling were predicting a close result

This redc data shows the opposite - their polling was exactly correct (excluding don't knows). Perhaps you meant some other poll.

Drifter50

bubblypop wrote: »

Has a serving president ever died?

Yes, Cearbhall O` Dalaigh died 2 years into his term in the late 70`s I think

eagle eye

Beechwoodspark wrote:

Is there a chance that 2 dragons den investors (Duffy and Gallagher) could run for the park? If so, bizarre.

Yeah and they are on the wrong show. Bill Cullen would be the man to go for it. The Apprentice is the ticket to becoming a President!!!

alaimacerc

Drifter50 wrote: »

Yes, Cearbhall O` Dalaigh died 2 years into his term in the late 70`s I think

He died five years after the start of his term, but two years after he'd resigned!

Erskine Childers it was who died in post, the chap before him.

Zubeneschamali

alaimacerc wrote: »

He died five years after the start of his term, but two years after he'd resigned!

A thundering disgrace.

Beechwoodspark

Craughwell has pulled out. Just announced.

Zubeneschamali

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Craughwell has pulled out. Just announced.

I had to look him up in Wikipedia to remind myself who he was. Utter waste of time him running.

Beechwoodspark

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I had to look him up in Wikipedia to remind myself who he was. Utter waste of time him running.

Anecdotally a number of ppl I talked to particularly outside Dublin (midlands especially) were interested in hearing more from him and potential vote for him.

He has a lot of connections through his unions work, teaching, etc.

Zubeneschamali

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Anecdotally a number of ppl I talked to particularly outside Dublin (midlands especially) were interested in hearing more from him and potential vote for him.

I've lived in Athlone for 25+ years and literally never heard of him.

eastwest

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I've lived in Athlone for 25+ years and literally never heard of him.

A lot more people know his name now, so he got his result.
As for the presidency, he hadn't a hope, but he probably knew that.

dulpit

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I've lived in Athlone for 25+ years and literally never heard of him.

Where does this sense of pride in not knowing something come from? I wouldn't be too familiar with Gerard Craughwell, but he has been all over the news related to the presidency for the last few months, if you've been anyway keeping an eye/ear on the news you'd have heard it.

In one sense - he's been successful (he said he wanted there to be an election and it looks like there will be). On the other hand, sounds like he wasn't able to get to 20 votes in the Oireachtas. Should free up enough votes for 1 independent though...

Beechwoodspark

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I've lived in Athlone for 25+ years and literally never heard of him.

He’d be very well known in teaching circles -was the president of the TUI for two years.

Also would have loads of connections among county councilors the length and breadth of the country. He got in a bit of controversy for sending them advice on how to maximise expenses claims.

blanch152

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

Yep being a senator is very much a part-time job. It was private health insurance he was claiming off, not disability benefit btw.

He was getting a disability payment from TCD.

Zubeneschamali

dulpit wrote: »

Where does this sense of pride in not knowing something come from?

I'm not saying I'm proud of not knowing him - Beechwoodspark was saying he is known in the midlands especially. Well, I live bang in the middle and he is not so well known that I ever heard of him.

So - his chances at a national level were always between zero and nothing.

Hotblack Desiato

blanch152 wrote: »

He was getting a disability payment from TCD.

Nope. He was receiving a payment from an insurance company, from a policy he paid for with his own money.

dulpit wrote: »

In one sense - he's been successful (he said he wanted there to be an election and it looks like there will be).

Yes, a pointless election. Craughwell appears to be quite the fan of wasting public money.

Presidential hopeful defends advising local councillors about how to 'maximise' mileage expenses

realdanbreen

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

He got in a bit of controversy for sending them advice on how to maximise expenses claims.

Straight away that makes him well qualified for the Presidency!